新时代住房供应如何契合租购群体的差异化需求?——以上海市为例
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摘要
住房市场发展已进入租购并举的新时代,有效推进住房供给侧结构性改革,应当充分把握和契合租购群体的多层次需求特征。文章在已有研究的基础上,提出了定量识别租房与购房群体对住房物理特征、地段区位、邻里设施等各类细分需求差异性的一般方法,并以上海为案例城市,利用住房交易微观数据进行了实证分析。研究发现:在物理特征方面,租房者偏好住房的实用性,而购房者偏好舒适性;在地段区位方面,租房者偏好市中心,而购房者的选址相对分散;在邻里设施方面,租房者关注休闲生活设施和公共交通设施,而购房者关注以优质公立教育资源为代表的公共服务配套情况。根据上述实证发现与定量参数,文章进一步探讨了住房产品设计和供给选址优化的分析思路和技术方法。最后,文章从供给产品、供给渠道和供给主体等方面,为优化住房市场供给以契合租购群体的差异化需求提出了一系列政策建议。
Benefiting from the reform of the housing market,the living conditions and environment in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However,while affirming the achievements,we should also see that the unbalanced development of housing rental and sale markets is becoming increasingly prominent. In order to achieve the goal of housing for all people,the Nineteenth National Congress of the CPC has taken the"encouraging both housing purchase and renting" as the general direction of housing market reform in the new era. To achieve the coordinated and balanced development of the two markets,the key is to promote the optimization of the supply structure of housing rental and sale markets,so as to satisfy the differentiated demand of tenants and homebuyers.On the basis of existing research,this paper employs a general hedonic method to quantitatively identify the different preferences of housing physical characteristics,location,neighborhood facilities and other factors between tenants and homebuyers.It takes Shanghai as a case city and uses the micro data of housing rental and resale transactions in the empirical analysis.The results indicate that there are significant differences in the housing demand between tenants and homebuyers.In terms of physical characteristics,renters prefer the practicability of housing while buyers prefer the comfort of housing;in terms of location,renters tend to downtown while buyers choose relatively scattered locations;in terms of neighborhood facilities,renters pay attention to leisure living facilities and public transport facilities,while buyers pay attention to public service supporting represented by the high-quality public education resources.In order to meet the difference demand of renting groups and purchase groups and promote the effective supply of housing,this paper gives a series of suggestions from three aspects:supply products,entities and channels.In terms of supply products,this paper constructs the suitability index of rental housing supply location and points out that the supply of rental houses should make use of housing stocks in the city center.As for the supply entities,this paper suggests that the government should fulfill its responsibility to provide affordable houses and incentivize all kinds of businesses and non-profit organizations to provide various housing products.Lastly,this paper points out that housing support should be provided through multiple channels.Compared with previous studies,from the perspective of research,this paper comprehensively considers the multi-level characteristics of housing demand,and pays attention to the effective identification of the differential demand between renting groups and purchase groups.As to research methods,the analysis of housing demand differences and the corresponding spatial research methods in this paper can be extended to other cities,and it provides references for supply and demand matching strategies adapting to the development status of the housing market in different cities.
Benefiting from the reform of the housing market,the living conditions and environment in Chinese cities have been greatly improved. However,while affirming the achievements,we should also see that the unbalanced development of housing rental and sale markets is becoming increasingly prominent. In order to achieve the goal of housing for all people,the Nineteenth National Congress of the CPC has taken the"encouraging both housing purchase and renting" as the general direction of housing market reform in the new era. To achieve the coordinated and balanced development of the two markets,the key is to promote the optimization of the supply structure of housing rental and sale markets,so as to satisfy the differentiated demand of tenants and homebuyers.On the basis of existing research,this paper employs a general hedonic method to quantitatively identify the different preferences of housing physical characteristics,location,neighborhood facilities and other factors between tenants and homebuyers.It takes Shanghai as a case city and uses the micro data of housing rental and resale transactions in the empirical analysis.The results indicate that there are significant differences in the housing demand between tenants and homebuyers.In terms of physical characteristics,renters prefer the practicability of housing while buyers prefer the comfort of housing;in terms of location,renters tend to downtown while buyers choose relatively scattered locations;in terms of neighborhood facilities,renters pay attention to leisure living facilities and public transport facilities,while buyers pay attention to public service supporting represented by the high-quality public education resources.In order to meet the difference demand of renting groups and purchase groups and promote the effective supply of housing,this paper gives a series of suggestions from three aspects:supply products,entities and channels.In terms of supply products,this paper constructs the suitability index of rental housing supply location and points out that the supply of rental houses should make use of housing stocks in the city center.As for the supply entities,this paper suggests that the government should fulfill its responsibility to provide affordable houses and incentivize all kinds of businesses and non-profit organizations to provide various housing products.Lastly,this paper points out that housing support should be provided through multiple channels.Compared with previous studies,from the perspective of research,this paper comprehensively considers the multi-level characteristics of housing demand,and pays attention to the effective identification of the differential demand between renting groups and purchase groups.As to research methods,the analysis of housing demand differences and the corresponding spatial research methods in this paper can be extended to other cities,and it provides references for supply and demand matching strategies adapting to the development status of the housing market in different cities.
引文
[1]巴曙松.中国房地产市场的主要问题及解决对策[J].新金融,2017,(11):8-11.
[2]陈继勇,刘传江,刘洪辞.蚁族群体住房需求与CMAT住房供给模式研究-基于南京市蚁族群体的调查[J].经济评论,2013,(1):113-119.
[3]陈杰,金珉州.上海居民住房需求的收入弹性分析-基于家庭层面的微观分析[J].上海经济研究,2012,(3):3-14.
[4]陈瑞.中国城镇住房市场是否存在需求缺口-基于省级面板数据的检验[J].兰州学刊,2017,(9):198-208.
[5]陈淑美,张金鹗,陈建良.家户迁移与居住品质变化关系之研究-台北县市的实证分析[J].住宅学报,2004,(1):51-74.
[6]程亚鹏.城市住房子市场价格差异的分位数分解方法与实证[J].中国管理科学,2017,(6):39-49.
[7]冯皓,陆铭.通过买房而择校:教育影响房价的经验证据与政策含义[J].世界经济,2010,(12):89-104.
[8]辜胜阻,杨嵋,郑超.房地产基础性制度和长效机制的战略思考[J].江淮论坛,2018,(2):28-34.
[9]胡婉旸,郑思齐,王锐.学区房的溢价究竟有多大:利用“租买不同权”和配对回归的实证估计[J].经济学(季刊),2014,(3):1195-1214.
[10]胡卓玮,刘晓旭,彭程,等.基于次序权重平均法的购房选择地理空间多准则决策[J].地理研究,2013,(3):476-486.
[11]黄烈佳,张萌.基于住宅消费行为的住宅郊区化影响因素研究-以武汉市为例[J].现代城市研究,2015,(6):39-44.
[12]解海,靳玉超,洪涛.供求结构适配视角下中国住房供应体系研究[J].学术交流,2013,(1):112-116.
[13]金朗,赵子健.我国住房租赁市场的问题与发展对策[J].宏观经济管理,2018,(3):80-85.
[14]刘洪玉.什么因素阻碍了租房市场健康发展[J].人民论坛,2017,(24):88-90.
[15]刘洪玉,杨帆.中国主要城市住房供给价格弹性估计与比较研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2012,(6):112-119.
[16]刘涛,曹广忠.大都市区外来人口居住地选择的区域差异与尺度效应-基于北京市村级数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2015,(1):30-40,50.
[17]倪鹏飞.中国住房制度的目标设计和深化改革[J].经济社会体制比较,2017,(2):14-27.
[18]秦虹.应高度关注城镇住房发展不平衡问题[J].城乡建设,2013,(3):7-8.
[19]孙聪,宋志达,郑思齐.农民工住房需求特征与城市住房保障体系优化-基于北京市“城中村”调研的研究[J].农业技术经济,2017,(4):16-27.
[20]谢志强,黄磊.买房时代会向租房时代转变吗[J].人民论坛,2017,(24):92-93.
[21]虞晓芬,傅剑,林国栋.社会组织参与住房保障的模式创新与制度保障-英国住房协会的运作经验与借鉴[J].城市发展研究,2017,(1):117-122.
[22]张牧扬,陈杰,石薇.租金率折价视角的学区价值测度-来自上海二手房市场的证据[J].金融研究,2016,(6):97-111.
[23]郑思齐,张英杰,张索迪,等.兼顾社会效益与土地机会成本的保障房选址评价方法-基于高低收入群体居住选址偏好差异的量化分析[J].管理评论,2016,(7):3-11.
[24]郑玉歆.为什么要强化政府增加住房供给的责任?[J].经济管理,2014,(4):1-8.
[25]周京奎.收入不确定性、住宅权属选择与住宅特征需求-以家庭类型差异为视角的理论与实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(4):1459-1498.
[26]Brown B W M,Lafrance A.Trends in homeownership by age and household income:Factors associated with the decision to own,1981 to 2006[R].Economic Analysis Research Paper Series 2013083e,2013.
[27]Cao Y J,Chen J D,Zhang Q H.Housing investment in urban China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2018,46(1):212-247.
[28]García J A B,Hernández J E R.Housing and urban location decisions in Spain:An econometric analysis with unobserved heterogeneity[J].Urban Studies,2007,44(9):1657-1676.
[29]Goodman A C,Kawai M.Permanent income,hedonic prices,and demand for housing:New evidence[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1982,12(2):214-237.
[30]Haurin D R.Income variability,homeownership,and housing demand[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1991,1(1):60-74.
[31]Henderson J V,Ioannides Y M.A model of housing tenure choice[J].The American Economic Review,1983,73(1):98-113.
[32]Horner M W.Spatial dimensions of urban commuting:A review of major issues and their implications for future geographic research[J].The Professional Geographer,2004,56(2):160-173.
[33]Morrow-Jones H A,Kim M J.Determinants of residential location decisions among the pre-elderly in central Ohio[J].Journal of Transport and Land Use,2009,2(1):47-64.
[34]Oates W E.The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values:An empirical study of tax capitalization and the Tiebout hypothesis[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77(6):957-971.
[35]Richard V.Changing capitalization of CBD-oriented transportation systems:Evidence from Philadelphia,1970-1988[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1993,33(3):361-376.
[36]Sirmans G S,Macpherson D A,Zietz E N.The composition of hedonic pricing models[J].Journal of Real Estate Literature,2005,13(1):1-44.
[37]Skaburskis A.Modelling the choice of tenure and building type[J].Urban Studies,1999,36(13):2199-2215.
(1)2000年数据来源于2000年全国人口普查汇总资料,2016年数据来源于住房和城乡建设部发布的《2016年城乡建设统计公报》。
(1)在研究期内,该公司在上海存量住房交易中的市场份额在10%左右(租赁市场份额更大),其门店在上海市区分布广泛并已建立起上海市“楼盘字典”,因而其住房交易样本具有代表性。
(2)本文样本在空间范围上没有纳入崇明区是考虑其地理位置的特殊性。时间跨度的选取主要出于以下考虑:该公司在2014年以前(含2014年)公布的住房成交记录并不完整,2015年起住房成交信息化程度显著提高,因此样本期始于2015年。
(1)本文主要考虑居民较长时段的住房需求与住房选择,因而没有将收费公园作为休闲生活设施。
(1)装修程度虚拟变量组及租金给付方式在销售与租赁样本之间不具有可比性,因而表1中未列出。
(1)需要特别说明的是,在控制板块固定效应的情况下,上述物理特征的估计系数不仅体现出社区内的差异,也反映出社区间的差别。因此,关于物理特征的分析结论主要基于控制社区固定效应的回归结果。当然,无论是控制板块固定效应还是社区固定效应,不会对租购群体需求差异性的分析结论产生显著影响。
(2)社区固定效应能够捕捉不同社区之间不随时间变化的各种差异。
(1)例如,以南朝向设计为主的社区比混合朝向设计的社区具有更高的舒适性,其住房销售价格溢价也更高。这使销售住房样本回归中控制板块固定效应后的估计系数明显增大,而租赁住房样本回归中则变化不大。
(1)根据上海市第六次人口普查10%的抽样结果,上海常住人口中租赁私有房屋的家庭占37.5%,而全市共有家庭8 251 160户,可估算出上海市市场租赁房源有3 094 185(=8 251 160×37.5%)套;再根据西南财经大学的调查,上海市自有多套住房空置率为16.2%,可算出空置住房约有60(=309×16.2%/(1-16.2%))万套。
(2)租赁机构市场渗透率数据来自中国指数研究院黄靖的报告《中、美大对比,看清未来中国租赁市场的4大趋势》,https://www.sohu.com/a/207228347_99913821。
(1)第六次人口普查数据显示,我国城镇不成套住房的比例超过20%。
(2)本文没有获得租房和购房群体的人口、社会、经济等特征数据,因而未能展示出租购需求多层次的差异,但是我们的社会调研结果证实了这一点。
[2]陈继勇,刘传江,刘洪辞.蚁族群体住房需求与CMAT住房供给模式研究-基于南京市蚁族群体的调查[J].经济评论,2013,(1):113-119.
[3]陈杰,金珉州.上海居民住房需求的收入弹性分析-基于家庭层面的微观分析[J].上海经济研究,2012,(3):3-14.
[4]陈瑞.中国城镇住房市场是否存在需求缺口-基于省级面板数据的检验[J].兰州学刊,2017,(9):198-208.
[5]陈淑美,张金鹗,陈建良.家户迁移与居住品质变化关系之研究-台北县市的实证分析[J].住宅学报,2004,(1):51-74.
[6]程亚鹏.城市住房子市场价格差异的分位数分解方法与实证[J].中国管理科学,2017,(6):39-49.
[7]冯皓,陆铭.通过买房而择校:教育影响房价的经验证据与政策含义[J].世界经济,2010,(12):89-104.
[8]辜胜阻,杨嵋,郑超.房地产基础性制度和长效机制的战略思考[J].江淮论坛,2018,(2):28-34.
[9]胡婉旸,郑思齐,王锐.学区房的溢价究竟有多大:利用“租买不同权”和配对回归的实证估计[J].经济学(季刊),2014,(3):1195-1214.
[10]胡卓玮,刘晓旭,彭程,等.基于次序权重平均法的购房选择地理空间多准则决策[J].地理研究,2013,(3):476-486.
[11]黄烈佳,张萌.基于住宅消费行为的住宅郊区化影响因素研究-以武汉市为例[J].现代城市研究,2015,(6):39-44.
[12]解海,靳玉超,洪涛.供求结构适配视角下中国住房供应体系研究[J].学术交流,2013,(1):112-116.
[13]金朗,赵子健.我国住房租赁市场的问题与发展对策[J].宏观经济管理,2018,(3):80-85.
[14]刘洪玉.什么因素阻碍了租房市场健康发展[J].人民论坛,2017,(24):88-90.
[15]刘洪玉,杨帆.中国主要城市住房供给价格弹性估计与比较研究[J].社会科学辑刊,2012,(6):112-119.
[16]刘涛,曹广忠.大都市区外来人口居住地选择的区域差异与尺度效应-基于北京市村级数据的实证分析[J].管理世界,2015,(1):30-40,50.
[17]倪鹏飞.中国住房制度的目标设计和深化改革[J].经济社会体制比较,2017,(2):14-27.
[18]秦虹.应高度关注城镇住房发展不平衡问题[J].城乡建设,2013,(3):7-8.
[19]孙聪,宋志达,郑思齐.农民工住房需求特征与城市住房保障体系优化-基于北京市“城中村”调研的研究[J].农业技术经济,2017,(4):16-27.
[20]谢志强,黄磊.买房时代会向租房时代转变吗[J].人民论坛,2017,(24):92-93.
[21]虞晓芬,傅剑,林国栋.社会组织参与住房保障的模式创新与制度保障-英国住房协会的运作经验与借鉴[J].城市发展研究,2017,(1):117-122.
[22]张牧扬,陈杰,石薇.租金率折价视角的学区价值测度-来自上海二手房市场的证据[J].金融研究,2016,(6):97-111.
[23]郑思齐,张英杰,张索迪,等.兼顾社会效益与土地机会成本的保障房选址评价方法-基于高低收入群体居住选址偏好差异的量化分析[J].管理评论,2016,(7):3-11.
[24]郑玉歆.为什么要强化政府增加住房供给的责任?[J].经济管理,2014,(4):1-8.
[25]周京奎.收入不确定性、住宅权属选择与住宅特征需求-以家庭类型差异为视角的理论与实证分析[J].经济学(季刊),2011,(4):1459-1498.
[26]Brown B W M,Lafrance A.Trends in homeownership by age and household income:Factors associated with the decision to own,1981 to 2006[R].Economic Analysis Research Paper Series 2013083e,2013.
[27]Cao Y J,Chen J D,Zhang Q H.Housing investment in urban China[J].Journal of Comparative Economics,2018,46(1):212-247.
[28]García J A B,Hernández J E R.Housing and urban location decisions in Spain:An econometric analysis with unobserved heterogeneity[J].Urban Studies,2007,44(9):1657-1676.
[29]Goodman A C,Kawai M.Permanent income,hedonic prices,and demand for housing:New evidence[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1982,12(2):214-237.
[30]Haurin D R.Income variability,homeownership,and housing demand[J].Journal of Housing Economics,1991,1(1):60-74.
[31]Henderson J V,Ioannides Y M.A model of housing tenure choice[J].The American Economic Review,1983,73(1):98-113.
[32]Horner M W.Spatial dimensions of urban commuting:A review of major issues and their implications for future geographic research[J].The Professional Geographer,2004,56(2):160-173.
[33]Morrow-Jones H A,Kim M J.Determinants of residential location decisions among the pre-elderly in central Ohio[J].Journal of Transport and Land Use,2009,2(1):47-64.
[34]Oates W E.The effects of property taxes and local public spending on property values:An empirical study of tax capitalization and the Tiebout hypothesis[J].Journal of Political Economy,1969,77(6):957-971.
[35]Richard V.Changing capitalization of CBD-oriented transportation systems:Evidence from Philadelphia,1970-1988[J].Journal of Urban Economics,1993,33(3):361-376.
[36]Sirmans G S,Macpherson D A,Zietz E N.The composition of hedonic pricing models[J].Journal of Real Estate Literature,2005,13(1):1-44.
[37]Skaburskis A.Modelling the choice of tenure and building type[J].Urban Studies,1999,36(13):2199-2215.
(1)2000年数据来源于2000年全国人口普查汇总资料,2016年数据来源于住房和城乡建设部发布的《2016年城乡建设统计公报》。
(1)在研究期内,该公司在上海存量住房交易中的市场份额在10%左右(租赁市场份额更大),其门店在上海市区分布广泛并已建立起上海市“楼盘字典”,因而其住房交易样本具有代表性。
(2)本文样本在空间范围上没有纳入崇明区是考虑其地理位置的特殊性。时间跨度的选取主要出于以下考虑:该公司在2014年以前(含2014年)公布的住房成交记录并不完整,2015年起住房成交信息化程度显著提高,因此样本期始于2015年。
(1)本文主要考虑居民较长时段的住房需求与住房选择,因而没有将收费公园作为休闲生活设施。
(1)装修程度虚拟变量组及租金给付方式在销售与租赁样本之间不具有可比性,因而表1中未列出。
(1)需要特别说明的是,在控制板块固定效应的情况下,上述物理特征的估计系数不仅体现出社区内的差异,也反映出社区间的差别。因此,关于物理特征的分析结论主要基于控制社区固定效应的回归结果。当然,无论是控制板块固定效应还是社区固定效应,不会对租购群体需求差异性的分析结论产生显著影响。
(2)社区固定效应能够捕捉不同社区之间不随时间变化的各种差异。
(1)例如,以南朝向设计为主的社区比混合朝向设计的社区具有更高的舒适性,其住房销售价格溢价也更高。这使销售住房样本回归中控制板块固定效应后的估计系数明显增大,而租赁住房样本回归中则变化不大。
(1)根据上海市第六次人口普查10%的抽样结果,上海常住人口中租赁私有房屋的家庭占37.5%,而全市共有家庭8 251 160户,可估算出上海市市场租赁房源有3 094 185(=8 251 160×37.5%)套;再根据西南财经大学的调查,上海市自有多套住房空置率为16.2%,可算出空置住房约有60(=309×16.2%/(1-16.2%))万套。
(2)租赁机构市场渗透率数据来自中国指数研究院黄靖的报告《中、美大对比,看清未来中国租赁市场的4大趋势》,https://www.sohu.com/a/207228347_99913821。
(1)第六次人口普查数据显示,我国城镇不成套住房的比例超过20%。
(2)本文没有获得租房和购房群体的人口、社会、经济等特征数据,因而未能展示出租购需求多层次的差异,但是我们的社会调研结果证实了这一点。