面向高质量发展的交通战略评估体系建构——以武汉市为例
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摘要
建构面向高质量发展的交通评估体系,是提升城市交通可持续发展能力的战略举措。先从交通战略评估的问题及其转变趋向入手,提出了"目标——行动——诊判——技术"四位一体的评估框架。再以武汉为例,构建了以可达性、方式结构、拥堵指数、排放水平、满意度为绩效指标的评估体系,并通过"绩效——运行——建设"三级指标追溯目标实现度不足的症结。发现TOD走廊策略贯彻滞后,小汽车导向的交通——用地不良耦合造成了主城拥堵加剧和新城低可达性。基于"强中心+多走廊"和"强走廊+多中心"情景方案评估,指明"公交快线+走廊TOD"的耦合模式是使用地增长与交通拥堵"脱钩"、实现城市高质量发展转型的关键。
It is strategic to develop a high-quality transport evaluation framework to enhance transport sustainability. First, the problems and changing trends of transport strategy evaluation are explained, and the four-in-one evaluation framework of "goalaction-diagnosis-technique" is proposed. Taking Wuhan as an example, an evaluation framework consisting of performance indicators of accessibility, modal share, congestion index, environmental index and user satisfaction is constructed. By referring to the three-level indicators of "performance-operation-construction", the cause of insufficient goal achievement is traced back to the lag in the implementation of TOD corridor plans, which exacerbated car-oriented land use-transport interaction and led to more serious congestion in the central city and poorer accessibility in outer new towns. Then, two different scenarios of "strong core+multiple corridors" and "strong corridors+multiple centers" are evaluated, highlighting the significance of "rapid transit + corridor TOD" to the decoupling of spatial expansion and road congestion and the transformation of high-quality development.
It is strategic to develop a high-quality transport evaluation framework to enhance transport sustainability. First, the problems and changing trends of transport strategy evaluation are explained, and the four-in-one evaluation framework of "goalaction-diagnosis-technique" is proposed. Taking Wuhan as an example, an evaluation framework consisting of performance indicators of accessibility, modal share, congestion index, environmental index and user satisfaction is constructed. By referring to the three-level indicators of "performance-operation-construction", the cause of insufficient goal achievement is traced back to the lag in the implementation of TOD corridor plans, which exacerbated car-oriented land use-transport interaction and led to more serious congestion in the central city and poorer accessibility in outer new towns. Then, two different scenarios of "strong core+multiple corridors" and "strong corridors+multiple centers" are evaluated, highlighting the significance of "rapid transit + corridor TOD" to the decoupling of spatial expansion and road congestion and the transformation of high-quality development.
引文
[1] EPA of the United States. Guide to sustainable transportation performance measures[R].2011.
[2]范字.石崧,张一凡,等.目标与实施导向下的总体规划指标体系研究[J].城市规划学刊,2017(7):75-81.(FAN Yu, SHI Song,ZHANG Yifan, et al. Goal-oriented and practice-led index system of master planning[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2017(7):75-81.)
[3] MAY A D, KARLSTROM A, MARLER N, et al. Developing sustainable urban land use and transport strategies:a decision-makers'guidebook[R].2005.
[4]湖北省交通运输厅.武汉获评公交都市创建示范城市,日均客运量突破730万人次[EB/OL].中国交通运输部湖北交通子站. http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/st/hubei/jiaotongxinwen/201812/120181214_3144304. html,2018(Department of Transport of Hubei Province. Wuhan was awarded the demonstration city for transit metropolis creation, with average daily volume exceeding 7.3 million passengers[EB/OL]. Hubei sub-site of the Ministry of Transport of China. http://zizhan.mot. gov.cn/st/hubei/jiaotongxin wen/201812/t20181214_3144304.html, 2018.)
[5]黄艳.黄艳同志在全国城乡规划改革工作座谈会上的讲话[EB/OL].规划头条,http://www. upnews. cn/archives/22976, 2016.(HUANG Yan. Yan Huang's speech at the forum on urban and rural planning reform nationwide[EB/OL]. UPNEWS, http://www.upnews.cn/archives/22976.)
[6] LITM AN T. A good example of bad transportation performance evaluation[R].2009.
[7]李莉,陈长虹,戴懿,等.城市交通与环境可持续发展指标体系评估系统研究——上海案例应用[J].安全与环境学报,2006,4(6):118-122.(LI Li,CHEN Changhong,DAI Yi, etc. Evaluation system of urban transportation and environment sustainable development indicatorsa case with Shanghai[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2006,4(6):118-122.)
[8]刘冰,张涵双,曹娟娟,等.基于公交可达性绩效的武汉市空间战略实施评估[J].城市规划学刊,2017,1:39-47.(LIU Bing, ZHANG Hanshuang, CAO Juanjuan, et al. Wuhan's spatial strategy implementation appraisal based on transit accessibility performance[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2017(1):39-47.)
[9]刘小明,全永燊,刘莹,等.《北京交通发展纲要(2004-2020年)》实施情况及评估[J].城市交通,2013,5(11):8-11.(LIU Xiaoming,QUAN Yongshen,LIU Ying, et al. Evaluation of Beijing transportation development plan(2004-2020)implementation[J]. Urban Transport of China. 2013,5(11):8-11.)
[10]陆锡明,顾煜.交通政策顶层设计的战略意义与关键作用——《上海市城市交通白皮书》十五年历程启示[J].城市交通,2013,5(11):12-17.(LU Ximing, GU Yu.Strategic significance and critical role of transportation policy:implementing"Shanghai Metropolitan Transport White Paper"in the pasr 15 years[J]. Urban Transport of China,2013,5(11):12-17.)
[11]桑劲.控制性详细规划实施结果评价框架探索——以上海市某社区控制性详细规划实施评价为例[J].城市规划学刊,2013,(4):73-80.(SANG Jin. Evaluation of implementation outcomes of regulatory plans——a case study on regulatory plan of a community in Shanghai[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2013.(4):73-80.)
[12]上海同济城市规划设计研究院.武汉市综合交通体系修编(2014-2030年)——交通系统综合评估[R]. 2015.(Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning and Design Institute. Wuhan comprehensive transportation system planning update(2014-2030)——appraisal ofcomprehensive transportation system in Wuhan(finalreport)[R]. 2015.)
[13] Southern California Injury Prevention Research Center(SCIPRC), UCLA School of Public Health. A guidebook to strategy evaluation:evaluating your city's approach to community safety and youth violence prevention[R]. 2008.
[14]孙施文.周宇.城市规划实施评价的理论与方法[J].城市规划汇刊,2003,(2):15-20, 27.(SUN Shiwen, ZHOU Yu. Theories and methods of urban planning implementation evaluation[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2003(2):15-20,27.)
[15] TURNBULL K. Performance measurement of transportation systems[M]. TRB of the National Academies, 2013.
[16] Transport and Infrastructure Council(TAIC), ATAP Guidelines Steering Committee. Australian transport assessment and planning guidelines[M],Commonwealth of Australia. 2016.
[17]武汉市交通发展战略研究.《2017武汉市交通发展年度报告》编制工作顺利完成[EB/OL].2017.http://www.whtpi.com/results/9/1473. html,(WHTPI. The preparation of the2017 Wuhan transport development annual report was successfully completed[EB/OL]. http://www.whtpi.com/results/9/1473.html, 2017.)
[18]武汉市交通发展战略研究院.《2018武汉市交通发展年度报告》编制完成并面向行业发布[EB/OL]. 2018. http://www. whtpi.com/results/9/2375.html.(WHTPI. 2018 Wuhan transport development annual report was completed and released[EB/OL]. 2018. http://www. whtpi.com/results/9/2375.html,)
[19]武汉市交通发展战略研究院(WHTPI).武汉市轨道交通2号线规划实施后评估[R],2013.(WHTPI. Post—evaluation of Wuhan rail transit line 2 implementation[R].2013.)
[20]武汉市人民政府.武汉市城市总体规划(2010—2020年)[R],2010.(Wuhan City's Government.Comprehensive planning of Wuhan(2010-2020)[RJ.2010.)
[21]习近平.习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL].中国共产党新闻网.http://cpc.people.com.cn/nl/2017/1028/c64094-29613660.html, 2017.(XI Jinping.XI Jinping's report at 19th CPC National Congress[EB/OL]. CPCNEWS. http://cpc. people.com.cn/nl/2017/1028/c64094-29613660.html, 2017.)
[22]解瑶,张军民,单建树.近五年我国城市总体规划实施评估研究综述[J].上海城市规划,2015(06):21-26.(XIE Yao, ZHANG Junmin, SHAN Jiangshu. Research summary of master urban plan implementation evaluation of recent five years in China[J]. Shanghai Urban Planning Review. 2015(06):21-26.)
[23]张尚武,汪劲柏,程大鸣.新时期城市总体规划实施评估的框架与方法——以武汉市城市总体规划(2010-2020年)实施评估为例[J].城市规划学刊,2018(3):33-39.(ZHANG Shangwu, WANG Jinbai, CHENG Darning. Framework and method of urban master plan implementation in the new era:taking the implementation assessment of Wuhan master plan(2010-2020)as an example[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2018(3):33-39.)
[24]中国评论通讯社.中国经济高质量发展的内涵和要义[EB/OL].中评网,2018.http://www.crntt. com/doc/1049/4/7/0/104947078. html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=04947078&mdate=0119083349.2018(China Review News Agency. The connotation and essentials of high-quality development of China's economy[EB/OL].CRNTT. 2018. http://www. cmtt. com/doc/1049/4/7/0/104947078.html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=104947078&mdate=0119083349)
[25]周江评,孙明洁.交通系统与交通项目评估——北美的经验及其对中国的启示[J].国外城市规划,2004,4(19):61-68.(ZHOU Jiangping,SUN Mingjie. Evaluation of transportation system and project-experiences in north American and its implications to China[J]. Urban Planning Overseas, 2004,4(19):61-68.)
[26]周珂慧,姜劲松.西方城市规划评估的研究述评[J].城市规划学刊,2013(1):104-109.(ZHOU Kehui, JIANG Jinsong. A review of urban planning evaluation in the west[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2013(1):104-109.)
(1)在上版总体规划中,武汉都市区由主城区以及城镇空间发展轴上的6大新城组群、组群之间的6条放射型生态绿楔组成。轴向TOD走廊指基于“多快多轨复合交通走廊”的外围新城组群。
(2)2013年11月,武汉发布了《武汉2049》远景发展规划之后,与武汉交通评估同步开展了世界城市交通目标、交通与土地利用协调发展、综合交通枢纽城市及城市圈交通一体化、公交一体化、交通需求管理政策等五个交通专题研究,使评估工作更加深入和全面。
(3)根据词义,绩效是指对所做出的主张、承诺、要求或其他义务的完成情况绩效用在经济管理活动方面,是指社会经济管理活动的结果和成效;用在公共部门中衡量政府活动的效果,则是一个包含多元目标在内的概念,交通战略的绩效属于后者。按照Todd Litman的解释,绩效评估是指用以确定组织在实现其预期意愿和目标方面的表现情况的一种监测和分析过程,见参考文献[14]。
[2]范字.石崧,张一凡,等.目标与实施导向下的总体规划指标体系研究[J].城市规划学刊,2017(7):75-81.(FAN Yu, SHI Song,ZHANG Yifan, et al. Goal-oriented and practice-led index system of master planning[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2017(7):75-81.)
[3] MAY A D, KARLSTROM A, MARLER N, et al. Developing sustainable urban land use and transport strategies:a decision-makers'guidebook[R].2005.
[4]湖北省交通运输厅.武汉获评公交都市创建示范城市,日均客运量突破730万人次[EB/OL].中国交通运输部湖北交通子站. http://zizhan.mot.gov.cn/st/hubei/jiaotongxinwen/201812/120181214_3144304. html,2018(Department of Transport of Hubei Province. Wuhan was awarded the demonstration city for transit metropolis creation, with average daily volume exceeding 7.3 million passengers[EB/OL]. Hubei sub-site of the Ministry of Transport of China. http://zizhan.mot. gov.cn/st/hubei/jiaotongxin wen/201812/t20181214_3144304.html, 2018.)
[5]黄艳.黄艳同志在全国城乡规划改革工作座谈会上的讲话[EB/OL].规划头条,http://www. upnews. cn/archives/22976, 2016.(HUANG Yan. Yan Huang's speech at the forum on urban and rural planning reform nationwide[EB/OL]. UPNEWS, http://www.upnews.cn/archives/22976.)
[6] LITM AN T. A good example of bad transportation performance evaluation[R].2009.
[7]李莉,陈长虹,戴懿,等.城市交通与环境可持续发展指标体系评估系统研究——上海案例应用[J].安全与环境学报,2006,4(6):118-122.(LI Li,CHEN Changhong,DAI Yi, etc. Evaluation system of urban transportation and environment sustainable development indicatorsa case with Shanghai[J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2006,4(6):118-122.)
[8]刘冰,张涵双,曹娟娟,等.基于公交可达性绩效的武汉市空间战略实施评估[J].城市规划学刊,2017,1:39-47.(LIU Bing, ZHANG Hanshuang, CAO Juanjuan, et al. Wuhan's spatial strategy implementation appraisal based on transit accessibility performance[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2017(1):39-47.)
[9]刘小明,全永燊,刘莹,等.《北京交通发展纲要(2004-2020年)》实施情况及评估[J].城市交通,2013,5(11):8-11.(LIU Xiaoming,QUAN Yongshen,LIU Ying, et al. Evaluation of Beijing transportation development plan(2004-2020)implementation[J]. Urban Transport of China. 2013,5(11):8-11.)
[10]陆锡明,顾煜.交通政策顶层设计的战略意义与关键作用——《上海市城市交通白皮书》十五年历程启示[J].城市交通,2013,5(11):12-17.(LU Ximing, GU Yu.Strategic significance and critical role of transportation policy:implementing"Shanghai Metropolitan Transport White Paper"in the pasr 15 years[J]. Urban Transport of China,2013,5(11):12-17.)
[11]桑劲.控制性详细规划实施结果评价框架探索——以上海市某社区控制性详细规划实施评价为例[J].城市规划学刊,2013,(4):73-80.(SANG Jin. Evaluation of implementation outcomes of regulatory plans——a case study on regulatory plan of a community in Shanghai[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2013.(4):73-80.)
[12]上海同济城市规划设计研究院.武汉市综合交通体系修编(2014-2030年)——交通系统综合评估[R]. 2015.(Shanghai Tongji Urban Planning and Design Institute. Wuhan comprehensive transportation system planning update(2014-2030)——appraisal ofcomprehensive transportation system in Wuhan(finalreport)[R]. 2015.)
[13] Southern California Injury Prevention Research Center(SCIPRC), UCLA School of Public Health. A guidebook to strategy evaluation:evaluating your city's approach to community safety and youth violence prevention[R]. 2008.
[14]孙施文.周宇.城市规划实施评价的理论与方法[J].城市规划汇刊,2003,(2):15-20, 27.(SUN Shiwen, ZHOU Yu. Theories and methods of urban planning implementation evaluation[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2003(2):15-20,27.)
[15] TURNBULL K. Performance measurement of transportation systems[M]. TRB of the National Academies, 2013.
[16] Transport and Infrastructure Council(TAIC), ATAP Guidelines Steering Committee. Australian transport assessment and planning guidelines[M],Commonwealth of Australia. 2016.
[17]武汉市交通发展战略研究.《2017武汉市交通发展年度报告》编制工作顺利完成[EB/OL].2017.http://www.whtpi.com/results/9/1473. html,(WHTPI. The preparation of the2017 Wuhan transport development annual report was successfully completed[EB/OL]. http://www.whtpi.com/results/9/1473.html, 2017.)
[18]武汉市交通发展战略研究院.《2018武汉市交通发展年度报告》编制完成并面向行业发布[EB/OL]. 2018. http://www. whtpi.com/results/9/2375.html.(WHTPI. 2018 Wuhan transport development annual report was completed and released[EB/OL]. 2018. http://www. whtpi.com/results/9/2375.html,)
[19]武汉市交通发展战略研究院(WHTPI).武汉市轨道交通2号线规划实施后评估[R],2013.(WHTPI. Post—evaluation of Wuhan rail transit line 2 implementation[R].2013.)
[20]武汉市人民政府.武汉市城市总体规划(2010—2020年)[R],2010.(Wuhan City's Government.Comprehensive planning of Wuhan(2010-2020)[RJ.2010.)
[21]习近平.习近平在中国共产党第十九次全国代表大会上的报告[EB/OL].中国共产党新闻网.http://cpc.people.com.cn/nl/2017/1028/c64094-29613660.html, 2017.(XI Jinping.XI Jinping's report at 19th CPC National Congress[EB/OL]. CPCNEWS. http://cpc. people.com.cn/nl/2017/1028/c64094-29613660.html, 2017.)
[22]解瑶,张军民,单建树.近五年我国城市总体规划实施评估研究综述[J].上海城市规划,2015(06):21-26.(XIE Yao, ZHANG Junmin, SHAN Jiangshu. Research summary of master urban plan implementation evaluation of recent five years in China[J]. Shanghai Urban Planning Review. 2015(06):21-26.)
[23]张尚武,汪劲柏,程大鸣.新时期城市总体规划实施评估的框架与方法——以武汉市城市总体规划(2010-2020年)实施评估为例[J].城市规划学刊,2018(3):33-39.(ZHANG Shangwu, WANG Jinbai, CHENG Darning. Framework and method of urban master plan implementation in the new era:taking the implementation assessment of Wuhan master plan(2010-2020)as an example[J]. Urban Planning Forum, 2018(3):33-39.)
[24]中国评论通讯社.中国经济高质量发展的内涵和要义[EB/OL].中评网,2018.http://www.crntt. com/doc/1049/4/7/0/104947078. html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=04947078&mdate=0119083349.2018(China Review News Agency. The connotation and essentials of high-quality development of China's economy[EB/OL].CRNTT. 2018. http://www. cmtt. com/doc/1049/4/7/0/104947078.html?coluid=53&kindid=0&docid=104947078&mdate=0119083349)
[25]周江评,孙明洁.交通系统与交通项目评估——北美的经验及其对中国的启示[J].国外城市规划,2004,4(19):61-68.(ZHOU Jiangping,SUN Mingjie. Evaluation of transportation system and project-experiences in north American and its implications to China[J]. Urban Planning Overseas, 2004,4(19):61-68.)
[26]周珂慧,姜劲松.西方城市规划评估的研究述评[J].城市规划学刊,2013(1):104-109.(ZHOU Kehui, JIANG Jinsong. A review of urban planning evaluation in the west[J]. Urban Planning Forum,2013(1):104-109.)
(1)在上版总体规划中,武汉都市区由主城区以及城镇空间发展轴上的6大新城组群、组群之间的6条放射型生态绿楔组成。轴向TOD走廊指基于“多快多轨复合交通走廊”的外围新城组群。
(2)2013年11月,武汉发布了《武汉2049》远景发展规划之后,与武汉交通评估同步开展了世界城市交通目标、交通与土地利用协调发展、综合交通枢纽城市及城市圈交通一体化、公交一体化、交通需求管理政策等五个交通专题研究,使评估工作更加深入和全面。
(3)根据词义,绩效是指对所做出的主张、承诺、要求或其他义务的完成情况绩效用在经济管理活动方面,是指社会经济管理活动的结果和成效;用在公共部门中衡量政府活动的效果,则是一个包含多元目标在内的概念,交通战略的绩效属于后者。按照Todd Litman的解释,绩效评估是指用以确定组织在实现其预期意愿和目标方面的表现情况的一种监测和分析过程,见参考文献[14]。