基于全球及区域气候模式的江苏省降水变化趋势预估
|
摘要
利用气象观测资料,8个全球耦合气候系统模式的集合平均以及区域气候模式(RegCM4)的结果,通过方差分析、相关分析、趋势分析、扰动法等方法对模式性能进行了评估,并对江苏省在未来RCP8.5高端排放情景下降水的变化趋势进行了预估。结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,至2020、2030和2050年,全球模式模拟的江苏省年平均降水在未来有逐渐增加的趋势,线性增加率约为7 mm/(10 a)。至2050年,江苏省年平均降水量将增加2%左右;区域模式模拟的年平均降水在未来线性增加率为1.5 mm/(10 a),变化不显著。区域模式模拟的夏季降水在未来有所增加,最多可增加20%～30%,但增幅随时间逐渐减小;全球模式模拟的夏季降水比现在有所减少,至2050年,减少了大约10%。区域模式模拟的冬季降水在未来不同时间段均比现在有所减少,同现在相比,最多可减少30%～40%;而全球模式模拟的冬季降水在未来则是先减少,后增加,至2050年,比现在大约增加10%。对于不同季节,总体而言,南部地区降水量的变化较北部地区显著。对于极端降水事件来说,江苏省未来小雨日数将减少,而暴雨日数则微弱增加。但由于全球模式本身的性能、区域模式对全球模式的依赖性以及温室气体排放的不确定性使上述预估结果仍具有不确定性。
In this study,based on the observational data and simulations of eight coupled climate models ensemble and regional climate model( RegCM 4),the performance of models are evaluated by means of the methods of variance analysis,correlation analysis,trend analysis and perturbation,and the precipitation change in Jiangsu Province in the future is projected under the scenario of RCP8. 5.The study results show that the annual mean precipitation of Jiangsu Province w ill gradually increase in the future,and the linear increase rate is about 7 mm/( 10 a) in the global model simulation,and 1. 5 mm/( 10 a) in the regional model simulation.The annual mean precipitation in Jiangsu Province w ill increase by about 2% by 2050,but the change in the regional model simulation is not significant.According to the regional model simulation,the summer precipitation w ill increase in the future,by up to20%—30%,but the rate of increase w ill decrease w ith time.In the global model simulation,the summer precipitation w ill have decreased by about 10% by 2050 compared w ith that at present.The w inter precipitation in the regional model simulation w ill have decreased in different periods in the future,and may be reduced by about30%—40% compared w ith that at present. The w inter precipitation in the global model simulation in the future w ill first be reduced,then increased,and by 2050 it w ill be about 10% higher than that today. For different seasons,the precipitation change in the southern region is more remarkable than that in the northern region. In the case of extreme precipitation,the light rain days in Jiangsu Province decrease,mainly in the southern region,w hile the heavy rain days increase slightly,but not significantly.How ever,due to the performance of the global models themselves,the dependence of the regional models on the global models,and the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emissions,the projected results remain uncertain.M ore global and regional models and further tests are needed in the future to reduce the uncertainty of the projections.
In this study,based on the observational data and simulations of eight coupled climate models ensemble and regional climate model( RegCM 4),the performance of models are evaluated by means of the methods of variance analysis,correlation analysis,trend analysis and perturbation,and the precipitation change in Jiangsu Province in the future is projected under the scenario of RCP8. 5.The study results show that the annual mean precipitation of Jiangsu Province w ill gradually increase in the future,and the linear increase rate is about 7 mm/( 10 a) in the global model simulation,and 1. 5 mm/( 10 a) in the regional model simulation.The annual mean precipitation in Jiangsu Province w ill increase by about 2% by 2050,but the change in the regional model simulation is not significant.According to the regional model simulation,the summer precipitation w ill increase in the future,by up to20%—30%,but the rate of increase w ill decrease w ith time.In the global model simulation,the summer precipitation w ill have decreased by about 10% by 2050 compared w ith that at present.The w inter precipitation in the regional model simulation w ill have decreased in different periods in the future,and may be reduced by about30%—40% compared w ith that at present. The w inter precipitation in the global model simulation in the future w ill first be reduced,then increased,and by 2050 it w ill be about 10% higher than that today. For different seasons,the precipitation change in the southern region is more remarkable than that in the northern region. In the case of extreme precipitation,the light rain days in Jiangsu Province decrease,mainly in the southern region,w hile the heavy rain days increase slightly,but not significantly.How ever,due to the performance of the global models themselves,the dependence of the regional models on the global models,and the uncertainty of greenhouse gas emissions,the projected results remain uncertain.M ore global and regional models and further tests are needed in the future to reduce the uncertainty of the projections.
引文
Chen H P,2013.Projected change in extreme rainfall events in China by the end of the 21st century using CMIP5 models[J].Chin Sci Bull,58(12):1462-1472.
Chen H P,Sun J Q,Chen X L,et al.,2012.CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China[J].Int J Climatol,32(3):441-450.
陈海山,范苏丹,张新华,2009.中国近50 a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,32(6):744-751.Chen H S,Fan S D,Zhang X H,2009.Seasonal differences of variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events over China in the last 50 years[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(6):744-751.(in Chinese).
陈威霖,江志红,黄强,2012.基于统计降尺度模型的江淮流域极端气候的模拟与预估[J].大气科学学报,35(5):578-590.Chen W L,Jiang Z H,Huang Q,2012.Projection and simulation of climate extremes over the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins based on a Statistical Downscaling Model[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):578-590.(in Chinese).
陈晓晨,2014.全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院.Chen X C,2014.Assessment of the precipitation over China simulated by CMIP5 multi-models[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.(in Chinese).
Cholaw B,Cubasch U,Lin Y H,et al.,2003.The change of North China climate in transient simulations using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model[J].Adv Atmos Sci,20(5):755-766.
崔妍,江志红,陈威霖,等,2010.典型相关分析方法对21世纪江淮流域极端降水的预估试验[J].气候变化研究进展,6(6):405-410.Cui Y,Jiang Z H,Chen W L,et al.,2010.Projection of extreme precipitation events in the 21st century in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley based on canonical correlation analysis[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,6(6):405-410.(in Chinese).
崔妍,周晓宇,赵春雨,等,2014.5个IPCC AR4全球气候模式对东北三省降水模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,30(4):34-41.Cui Y,Zhou X Y,Zhao C N,et al.,2014.Projection and evaluation of precipitation over Northeast China based on five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,30(4):34-41.(in Chinese).
Dai A G,2006.Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models[J].J Climate,19(18):4605-4630.
Ding Y H,Sikka D R,2006.Synoptic systems and weather [M]//The Asian Monsoon.Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg:131-201.
丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等,2007.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,3(S1):1-5.Ding Y H,Ren G Y,Shi G Y,et al.,2007.China’s national assessment report on climate change (Ⅰ):climate change in China and the future trend[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,3(S1):1-5.(in Chinese).
丁一汇,孙颖,刘芸芸,等,2013.亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测[J].大气科学,37(2):253-280.Ding Y H,Sun Y,Liu Y Y,et al.,2013.Interdecadal and interannual variabilities of the Asian summer monsoon and its projection of future change[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,37(2):253-280.(in Chinese).
Fisher B,Nakicenovic N,Alfsen K,et al.,2007.Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context (Chapter 3) [M]//IPCC.Climate change 2007:mitigation.Contribution of working group Ⅲ to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
高学杰,石英,张冬峰,等,2012.RegCM3对21世纪中国区域气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J].科学通报,57(5):374-381.Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F,et al.,2012.Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Chin Sci Bull,57(5):374-381.(in Chinese).
Gao X J,Wang M L,Giorgi F,2013.Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCCCSM1.1-RegCM4.0[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(5):381-386.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Visconti G,1990.Use of a limited-area model nested in a general circulation model for regional climate simulation over Europe[J].J Geophys Res,95(D11):18413.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,1993a.Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2).part Ⅰ:boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(10):2794-2813.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,et al.,1993b.Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2).part Ⅱ:convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(10):2814-2832.
顾薇,李崇银,2010.IPCC AR4中海气耦合模式对中国东部夏季降水及PDO、NAO年代际变化的模拟能力分析[J].大气科学学报,33(4):401-411.Gu W,Li C Y,2010.Evaluation of the IPCC AR4 climate models in simulating the interdecadal variations of the east China summer precipitation,PDO and NAO[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(4):401-411.(in Chinese).
韩乐琼,韩哲,李双林,2014.不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)下21世纪长江中下游强降水预估[J].大气科学学报,37(5):529-540.Han L Q,Han Z,Li S L,2014.Projection of heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in the 21st century under different representative concentration pathways[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):529-540.(in Chinese).
IPCC,2013.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Contribution of working group Ⅰ to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
姜大膀,富元海,2012.2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J].大气科学,36(2):234-246.Jiang D B,Fu Y H,2012.Climate change over China with a 2℃ global warming[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,36(2):234-246.(in Chinese).
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等,2009.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120.Jiang Z H,Chen W L,Song J,et al.,2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(1):109-120.(in Chinese).
Kitoh A,Hosaka M,Adachi Y,et al.,2005.Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2[J].Adv Atmos Sci,22(4):467-478.
Lee E J,Kwon W T,Baek H J,2008.Summer precipitation changes in northeast Asia from the AOGCM global warming experiments[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,86(4):475-490.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li L P,Xu G Y,Chen L P,et al.,2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):570-577.(in Chinese).
Li Y,Wu B Y,Yang Q M,et al.,2013.Different relationships between spring SST in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and summer precipitation in China[J].Acta Meteorol Sin,27(4):509-520.
林而达,刘颖杰,2008.温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展[J].中国农业科学,41(6):1700-1707.Lin E D,Liu Y J,2008.Advance in new scenarios of greenhouse gas emission and climate change[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,41(6):1700-1707.(in Chinese).
Lu R Y,Li Y,Dong B W,2007.East Asian precipitation increase under the global warming[J].Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society,43(3):267-272.
Moss R H,Babiker M,Brinkman S,et al.,2007.Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions,climate change,impacts,and response strategies.Noordwijkerhout[R].Netherlands:132.
Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.,2010.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,463(7282):747-756.
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q,et al.,2007.Regional climate modeling for the developing world:the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,88(9):1395-1410.
Qian W H,Fu J L,Yan Z W,2007.Decrease of light rain events in summer associated with a warming environment in China during 1961—2005[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(11):L11705.
石英,高学杰,Filippo Giorgi,等,2010.全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,6(3):164-169.Shi Y,Gao X J,Filippo G,et al.,2010.High resolution simulation of changes in different-intensity precipitation events over China under global warming[J].Advances in Climate Change,6(3):164-169.(in Chinese).
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.,2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J Geophys Res,115(D16):D16110.
van Vuuren D P,Feddema J,Lamarque J F,et al.,2008.Work plan for data exchange between the integrated assessment and climate modeling community in support of phase-0 of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (representative community pathways)[R].IPCC.
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.,2012.Extreme climate in China:facts,simulation and projection[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,21(3):279-304.
Wang L,Chen W,2014.A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature,precipitation,and climatological drought in China[J].Int J Climatol,34(6):2059-2078.
王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等,2013.IPCC第5次评估报告问世[J].气候变化研究进展,9(6):436-439.Wang S W,Luo Y,Zhao Z C,et al.,2013.The fifth IPCC assessment report hits the streets[J].Adv Climate Change Res,9(6):436-439.(in Chinese).
Webster P J,2005.Oceans and monsoons [C]//The Global Monsoon System:Research and Forecasting.TD No.1266:253-296.
Wu J,Gao X J,Xu Y L,et al.,2015.Regional climate change and uncertainty analysis based on four regional climate model simulations over China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,8(3):147-152.
吴佳,周波涛,徐影,2015.中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估[J].地球物理学报,58(9):3048-3060.Wu J,Zhou B T,Xu Y,2015.Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming:CMIP5 simulation and projection[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,58(9):3048-3060.(in Chinese).
Xu C H,Xu Y,2012.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):527-533.
夏杨,孙旭光,闫燕,等,2017.全球变暖背景下ENSO特征的变化[J].科学通报,62(16):1738-1751.Xia Y,Sun X G,Yan Y,et al.,2017.Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,62(16):1738-1751.(in Chinese).
张冬峰,石英,2012.区域气候模式RegCM3对华北地区未来气候变化的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,55(9):2854-2866.Zhang D F,Shi Y,2012.Numerical simulation of climate changes over North China by the RegCM3 model[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,55(9):2854-2866.(in Chinese).
张武龙,张井勇,范广洲,等,2015.CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估[J].大气科学,39(3):559-570.Zhang W L,Zhang J Y,Fan G Z,et al.,2015.Evaluation and projection of dry-and wet-season precipitation in southwestern China using CMIP5 models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,39(3):559-570.(in Chinese).
赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌,2015.CMIP5和CMIP3对东亚降水和全球热带气旋模拟效果的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,11(6):443-446.Zhao Z C,Luo Y,Huang J B,2015.Evaluation of precipitation in east Asia and global tropical cyclones simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP3[J].Advances in Climate Change,11(6):443-446.(in Chinese).
Chen H P,Sun J Q,Chen X L,et al.,2012.CGCM projections of heavy rainfall events in China[J].Int J Climatol,32(3):441-450.
陈海山,范苏丹,张新华,2009.中国近50 a极端降水事件变化特征的季节性差异[J].大气科学学报,32(6):744-751.Chen H S,Fan S D,Zhang X H,2009.Seasonal differences of variation characteristics of extreme precipitation events over China in the last 50 years[J].Trans Atmos Sci,32(6):744-751.(in Chinese).
陈威霖,江志红,黄强,2012.基于统计降尺度模型的江淮流域极端气候的模拟与预估[J].大气科学学报,35(5):578-590.Chen W L,Jiang Z H,Huang Q,2012.Projection and simulation of climate extremes over the Yangtze and Huaihe River Basins based on a Statistical Downscaling Model[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):578-590.(in Chinese).
陈晓晨,2014.全球气候模式对中国降水模拟能力的评估[D].北京:中国气象科学研究院.Chen X C,2014.Assessment of the precipitation over China simulated by CMIP5 multi-models[D].Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences.(in Chinese).
Cholaw B,Cubasch U,Lin Y H,et al.,2003.The change of North China climate in transient simulations using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios with a coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model[J].Adv Atmos Sci,20(5):755-766.
崔妍,江志红,陈威霖,等,2010.典型相关分析方法对21世纪江淮流域极端降水的预估试验[J].气候变化研究进展,6(6):405-410.Cui Y,Jiang Z H,Chen W L,et al.,2010.Projection of extreme precipitation events in the 21st century in the Changjiang-Huaihe River Valley based on canonical correlation analysis[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,6(6):405-410.(in Chinese).
崔妍,周晓宇,赵春雨,等,2014.5个IPCC AR4全球气候模式对东北三省降水模拟与预估[J].气象与环境学报,30(4):34-41.Cui Y,Zhou X Y,Zhao C N,et al.,2014.Projection and evaluation of precipitation over Northeast China based on five IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,30(4):34-41.(in Chinese).
Dai A G,2006.Precipitation characteristics in eighteen coupled climate models[J].J Climate,19(18):4605-4630.
Ding Y H,Sikka D R,2006.Synoptic systems and weather [M]//The Asian Monsoon.Berlin:Springer Berlin Heidelberg:131-201.
丁一汇,任国玉,石广玉,等,2007.气候变化国家评估报告(Ⅰ):中国气候变化的历史和未来趋势[J].气候变化研究进展,3(S1):1-5.Ding Y H,Ren G Y,Shi G Y,et al.,2007.China’s national assessment report on climate change (Ⅰ):climate change in China and the future trend[J].Advances in Climate Change Research,3(S1):1-5.(in Chinese).
丁一汇,孙颖,刘芸芸,等,2013.亚洲夏季风的年际和年代际变化及其未来预测[J].大气科学,37(2):253-280.Ding Y H,Sun Y,Liu Y Y,et al.,2013.Interdecadal and interannual variabilities of the Asian summer monsoon and its projection of future change[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,37(2):253-280.(in Chinese).
Fisher B,Nakicenovic N,Alfsen K,et al.,2007.Issues related to mitigation in the long-term context (Chapter 3) [M]//IPCC.Climate change 2007:mitigation.Contribution of working group Ⅲ to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press.
高学杰,石英,张冬峰,等,2012.RegCM3对21世纪中国区域气候变化的高分辨率模拟[J].科学通报,57(5):374-381.Gao X J,Shi Y,Zhang D F,et al.,2012.Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model[J].Chin Sci Bull,57(5):374-381.(in Chinese).
Gao X J,Wang M L,Giorgi F,2013.Climate change over China in the 21st century as simulated by BCCCSM1.1-RegCM4.0[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,6(5):381-386.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Visconti G,1990.Use of a limited-area model nested in a general circulation model for regional climate simulation over Europe[J].J Geophys Res,95(D11):18413.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,1993a.Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2).part Ⅰ:boundary-layer and radiative transfer processes[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(10):2794-2813.
Giorgi F,Marinucci M R,Bates G T,et al.,1993b.Development of a second-generation regional climate model (RegCM2).part Ⅱ:convective processes and assimilation of lateral boundary conditions[J].Mon Wea Rev,121(10):2814-2832.
顾薇,李崇银,2010.IPCC AR4中海气耦合模式对中国东部夏季降水及PDO、NAO年代际变化的模拟能力分析[J].大气科学学报,33(4):401-411.Gu W,Li C Y,2010.Evaluation of the IPCC AR4 climate models in simulating the interdecadal variations of the east China summer precipitation,PDO and NAO[J].Trans Atmos Sci,33(4):401-411.(in Chinese).
韩乐琼,韩哲,李双林,2014.不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)下21世纪长江中下游强降水预估[J].大气科学学报,37(5):529-540.Han L Q,Han Z,Li S L,2014.Projection of heavy rainfall events in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley in the 21st century under different representative concentration pathways[J].Trans Atmos Sci,37(5):529-540.(in Chinese).
IPCC,2013.Climate change 2013:the physical science basis.Contribution of working group Ⅰ to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change[R].Cambridge:Cambridge University Press.
姜大膀,富元海,2012.2℃全球变暖背景下中国未来气候变化预估[J].大气科学,36(2):234-246.Jiang D B,Fu Y H,2012.Climate change over China with a 2℃ global warming[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,36(2):234-246.(in Chinese).
江志红,陈威霖,宋洁,等,2009.7个IPCC AR4模式对中国地区极端降水指数模拟能力的评估及其未来情景预估[J].大气科学,33(1):109-120.Jiang Z H,Chen W L,Song J,et al.,2009.Projection and evaluation of the precipitation extremes indices over China based on seven IPCC AR4 coupled climate models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,33(1):109-120.(in Chinese).
Kitoh A,Hosaka M,Adachi Y,et al.,2005.Future projections of precipitation characteristics in East Asia simulated by the MRI CGCM2[J].Adv Atmos Sci,22(4):467-478.
Lee E J,Kwon W T,Baek H J,2008.Summer precipitation changes in northeast Asia from the AOGCM global warming experiments[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,86(4):475-490.
李丽平,许冠宇,成丽萍,等.2012.华南后汛期极端降水特征及变化趋势[J].大气科学学报,35(5):570-577.Li L P,Xu G Y,Chen L P,et al.,2012.Characteristics of extreme precipitation and its variation trend in the post-flood of South China[J].Trans Atmos Sci,35(5):570-577.(in Chinese).
Li Y,Wu B Y,Yang Q M,et al.,2013.Different relationships between spring SST in the Indian and Pacific Oceans and summer precipitation in China[J].Acta Meteorol Sin,27(4):509-520.
林而达,刘颖杰,2008.温室气体排放和气候变化新情景研究的最新进展[J].中国农业科学,41(6):1700-1707.Lin E D,Liu Y J,2008.Advance in new scenarios of greenhouse gas emission and climate change[J].Scientia Agricultura Sinica,41(6):1700-1707.(in Chinese).
Lu R Y,Li Y,Dong B W,2007.East Asian precipitation increase under the global warming[J].Journal of the Korean Meteorological Society,43(3):267-272.
Moss R H,Babiker M,Brinkman S,et al.,2007.Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions,climate change,impacts,and response strategies.Noordwijkerhout[R].Netherlands:132.
Moss R H,Edmonds J A,Hibbard K A,et al.,2010.The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment[J].Nature,463(7282):747-756.
Pal J S,Giorgi F,Bi X Q,et al.,2007.Regional climate modeling for the developing world:the ICTP RegCM3 and RegCNET[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,88(9):1395-1410.
Qian W H,Fu J L,Yan Z W,2007.Decrease of light rain events in summer associated with a warming environment in China during 1961—2005[J].Geophys Res Lett,34(11):L11705.
石英,高学杰,Filippo Giorgi,等,2010.全球变暖背景下中国区域不同强度降水事件变化的高分辨率数值模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,6(3):164-169.Shi Y,Gao X J,Filippo G,et al.,2010.High resolution simulation of changes in different-intensity precipitation events over China under global warming[J].Advances in Climate Change,6(3):164-169.(in Chinese).
Sun J Q,Wang H J,Yuan W,et al.,2010.Spatial-temporal features of intense snowfall events in China and their possible change[J].J Geophys Res,115(D16):D16110.
van Vuuren D P,Feddema J,Lamarque J F,et al.,2008.Work plan for data exchange between the integrated assessment and climate modeling community in support of phase-0 of scenario analysis for climate change assessment (representative community pathways)[R].IPCC.
Wang H J,Sun J Q,Chen H P,et al.,2012.Extreme climate in China:facts,simulation and projection[J].Meteorologische Zeitschrift,21(3):279-304.
Wang L,Chen W,2014.A CMIP5 multimodel projection of future temperature,precipitation,and climatological drought in China[J].Int J Climatol,34(6):2059-2078.
王绍武,罗勇,赵宗慈,等,2013.IPCC第5次评估报告问世[J].气候变化研究进展,9(6):436-439.Wang S W,Luo Y,Zhao Z C,et al.,2013.The fifth IPCC assessment report hits the streets[J].Adv Climate Change Res,9(6):436-439.(in Chinese).
Webster P J,2005.Oceans and monsoons [C]//The Global Monsoon System:Research and Forecasting.TD No.1266:253-296.
Wu J,Gao X J,Xu Y L,et al.,2015.Regional climate change and uncertainty analysis based on four regional climate model simulations over China[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,8(3):147-152.
吴佳,周波涛,徐影,2015.中国平均降水和极端降水对气候变暖的响应:CMIP5模式模拟评估和预估[J].地球物理学报,58(9):3048-3060.Wu J,Zhou B T,Xu Y,2015.Response of precipitation and its extremes over China to warming:CMIP5 simulation and projection[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,58(9):3048-3060.(in Chinese).
Xu C H,Xu Y,2012.The projection of temperature and precipitation over China under RCP scenarios using a CMIP5 multi-model ensemble[J].Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters,5(6):527-533.
夏杨,孙旭光,闫燕,等,2017.全球变暖背景下ENSO特征的变化[J].科学通报,62(16):1738-1751.Xia Y,Sun X G,Yan Y,et al.,2017.Change of ENSO characteristics in response to global warming[J].Chinese Science Bulletin,62(16):1738-1751.(in Chinese).
张冬峰,石英,2012.区域气候模式RegCM3对华北地区未来气候变化的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,55(9):2854-2866.Zhang D F,Shi Y,2012.Numerical simulation of climate changes over North China by the RegCM3 model[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,55(9):2854-2866.(in Chinese).
张武龙,张井勇,范广洲,等,2015.CMIP5模式对我国西南地区干湿季降水的模拟和预估[J].大气科学,39(3):559-570.Zhang W L,Zhang J Y,Fan G Z,et al.,2015.Evaluation and projection of dry-and wet-season precipitation in southwestern China using CMIP5 models[J].Chin J Atmos Sci,39(3):559-570.(in Chinese).
赵宗慈,罗勇,黄建斌,2015.CMIP5和CMIP3对东亚降水和全球热带气旋模拟效果的评估[J].气候变化研究进展,11(6):443-446.Zhao Z C,Luo Y,Huang J B,2015.Evaluation of precipitation in east Asia and global tropical cyclones simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP3[J].Advances in Climate Change,11(6):443-446.(in Chinese).