偏好情景应变式冲突分析模型
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摘要
针对决策者偏好信息随未来潜在发展情景变化的情况,构建了偏好情景应变式冲突分析模型。首先利用情景分析技术生成了影响冲突分析的若干潜在情景,不同潜在情景下的冲突子系统共同构成偏好情景应变式冲突系统。进而将所有潜在情景下冲突子系统稳定的交集定义为情景应变式冲突模型的全局稳定。由于全局稳定条件较为苛刻,交集可能为空集,进一步从集结不同情景下偏好信息角度定义了偏好集结型稳定。具体方法是依据策略优先权法对状态打分,接着利用决策者对不同情景的重视程度集结打分值,获得集结的偏好信息,并定义相应的稳定。最后以某大型客机立项论证阶段研制周期冲突决策为例比较了这两种稳定。
Considering the case that the decision makers' preferences in a conflict analysis are sensitive to the different potential future outcomes,a conflict analysis model with uncertain preference sensitive to scenarios is proposed. Firstly,scenario analysis is employed to generate the potential scenarios that affect the conflict analysis,and then the conflict subsystems in different potential scenarios together constitute the conflict system with preferences that respond to the scenarios. Furthermore, the intersections of all stability in conflict subsystems are defined as the global stability. However,the intersection may be empty set due to the harsh global stability condition,so that a stability based on preference aggregation is further designed. The specific procedure is to score the status according to the option prioritizing method,and then to utilize the decision maker's opinions concerning the significance of different scenarios to aggregate the scores. Consequently,the aggregation of preference information is finished,and then the corresponding stability is defined. Finally,the two kinds of stability are compared using a case study on the decision of the development cycle of a large passenger aircraft project.
Considering the case that the decision makers' preferences in a conflict analysis are sensitive to the different potential future outcomes,a conflict analysis model with uncertain preference sensitive to scenarios is proposed. Firstly,scenario analysis is employed to generate the potential scenarios that affect the conflict analysis,and then the conflict subsystems in different potential scenarios together constitute the conflict system with preferences that respond to the scenarios. Furthermore, the intersections of all stability in conflict subsystems are defined as the global stability. However,the intersection may be empty set due to the harsh global stability condition,so that a stability based on preference aggregation is further designed. The specific procedure is to score the status according to the option prioritizing method,and then to utilize the decision maker's opinions concerning the significance of different scenarios to aggregate the scores. Consequently,the aggregation of preference information is finished,and then the corresponding stability is defined. Finally,the two kinds of stability are compared using a case study on the decision of the development cycle of a large passenger aircraft project.
引文
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[23]吴育华,程德文.信息不完备冲突分析的研究方法及应用[J].系统工程学报,1994,9(2):36-42
[24]王意冈,申金升.动态冲突分析及其在微观决策中的应用[J].管理工程学报,1994,8(1):58-63.
[25]刘勇,王育红,钱吴永.基于马尔科夫链的动态冲突分析模型[J].中国管理科学,2015,(S1):325-332.
[26] Kahn H,Wiener A J. year 2000; a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years[J]. Daedalus,1967,96(3):705-732.
[27]岳珍,赖茂生.国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J].情报杂志,2006,25(7):59-60.
[28]王宁,郭玮,路国粹.基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(1):68-75.
[29]宁钟,王雅青.基于情景分析的供应链风险识别[J].工业工程与管理,2007,2:88-94.
[30] He S,Kilgour D M,Hipel K W. A general hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution with application to greenhouse gas emission disputes between USA and China[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2017,257(3):919-932.
[31] Fang L,Hipel K W,Kilgour D M,et al. A decision support system for interactive decision making-Part I:model formulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man, and Cybernetics, Part C(Applications and Reviews),2003,33(1):42-55.
[32] Ge B,Hipel K W,Fang L,et al. An interactive portfolio decision analysis approach for system-ofsystems architecting using the graph model for conflict resolution[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2014,44(10):1328-1346.
[33]侯宇航,徐海燕.基于冲突图模型策略优先权排序法的强度偏好排序研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(9):64-70.
[2] Fraser N M,Hipel K W. Conflict Analysis:Models and Resolutions[M]. North-Holland,1984.
[3]韩雪山,徐海燕.基于冲突分析图模型的技术转移冲突的研究[J].科技与经济,2012,(05):72-76.
[4]赵微,黄介生,李娜.水资源冲突分析研究进展[J].长江流域资源与环境,2008,(03):406-409.
[5]杨东升,张永安.冲突分析理论在产学研合作中的应用[J].研究与发展管理,2007,(06):134-137.
[6]陈洪转,何利芳,方志耕,等.“主制造商-供应商”协同利益主体超冲突均衡设计[J].管理世界,2012(3):180-181.
[7]刘远,郝晶晶,方志耕,等.复杂产品谈判阶段质量冲突演化模型及均衡解[J].系统工程,2014,9:94-100.
[8] Garcia A,Hipel K W. Inverse engineering preferences in simple games[J]. Applied Mathematics and Computation,2017,311:184-194.
[9] Li K W,Hipel K W,Kilgour D M,et al. Preference uncertainty in the graph model for conflict resolution[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and CyberneticsPart A:Systems and Humans,2004,34(4):507-520.
[10] Xu H,Hipel K W,Kilgour D M,et al. Combining strength and uncertainty for preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution with multiple decision makers[J]. Theory and decision,2010,69(4):497-521.
[11] Bashar M A,Kilgour D M,Hipel K W. Fuzzy preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution[J].IEEE Transactions on Fuzzy Systems,2012,20(4):760-770.
[12] Hipel K W,Kilgour D M,Bashar M A. Fuzzy preferences in multiple participant decision making[J].Scientia Iranica,2011,18(3):627-638.
[13] Wang Q,Kilgour D M,Hipel K W. Facilitating risky project negotiation:an integrated approach using fuzzy real options,multicriteria analysis,and conflict analysis[J]. Information Sciences,2015,295:544-557.
[14]孟波.具有模糊偏好信息韵冲突分析方法及应用[J].系统工程,1991,6:007.
[15] Kuang H,Bashar M A,Hipel K W,et al. Grey-based preference in a graph model for conflict resolution with multiple decision makers[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2015,45(9):1254-1267.
[16] Rêgo L C,dos Santos A M. Probabilistic preferences in the graph model for conflict resolution[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2015,45(4):595-608.
[17] Kinsara R A, Kilgour D M, Hipel K W. Inverse approach to the graph model for conflict resolution[J].IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2015,45(5):734-742.
[18] Kinsara R A, Petersons O, Hipel K W, et al.Advanced decision support for the graph model for conflict resolution[J]. Journal of decision systems,2015,24(2):117-145.
[19] Aljefri Y M,Bashar M A,Fang L,et al. First-level hypergame for investigating misperception in conflicts[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2017.
[20] Bennett P G. Toward a theory of hypergames[J].Omega,1977,5(6):749-751.
[21]于晶,赵敏,陈岩.冲突分析图模型框架下的决策者态度分析[J].软科学,2015,29(9):140-144.
[22] Matbouli Y T,Kilgour D M,Hipel K W. Robustness of equilibria in the graph model for conflict resolution[J].Journal of Systems Science and Systems Engineering,2015,24(4):450-465.
[23]吴育华,程德文.信息不完备冲突分析的研究方法及应用[J].系统工程学报,1994,9(2):36-42
[24]王意冈,申金升.动态冲突分析及其在微观决策中的应用[J].管理工程学报,1994,8(1):58-63.
[25]刘勇,王育红,钱吴永.基于马尔科夫链的动态冲突分析模型[J].中国管理科学,2015,(S1):325-332.
[26] Kahn H,Wiener A J. year 2000; a framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years[J]. Daedalus,1967,96(3):705-732.
[27]岳珍,赖茂生.国外“情景分析”方法的进展[J].情报杂志,2006,25(7):59-60.
[28]王宁,郭玮,路国粹.基于应急案例的情景决策支持方法研究[J].运筹与管理,2017,26(1):68-75.
[29]宁钟,王雅青.基于情景分析的供应链风险识别[J].工业工程与管理,2007,2:88-94.
[30] He S,Kilgour D M,Hipel K W. A general hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution with application to greenhouse gas emission disputes between USA and China[J]. European Journal of Operational Research,2017,257(3):919-932.
[31] Fang L,Hipel K W,Kilgour D M,et al. A decision support system for interactive decision making-Part I:model formulation[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man, and Cybernetics, Part C(Applications and Reviews),2003,33(1):42-55.
[32] Ge B,Hipel K W,Fang L,et al. An interactive portfolio decision analysis approach for system-ofsystems architecting using the graph model for conflict resolution[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems,Man,and Cybernetics:Systems,2014,44(10):1328-1346.
[33]侯宇航,徐海燕.基于冲突图模型策略优先权排序法的强度偏好排序研究[J].中国管理科学,2016,24(9):64-70.