摘要
针对实施不同方案各情景发生概率不同的应急响应风险决策问题,提出基于后悔理论和区间灰数信息的突发事件应急决策方法.方法考虑到决策者的后悔规避的心理行为,建立了方案两两比较的灰色后悔-欣喜值矩阵,并通过计算每个方案相对于其他所有方案的总体灰色后悔-欣喜值对方案进行排序;最后,通过具体算例验证了方法的可行性和有效性.
A decision method based on regret theory and interval grey numbers is proposed in this paper to deal with the risky decision problem for emergency response in which the scenario probabilities are different when implementing different emergency plans. Considering the decision-maker's regret aversion, we construct the grey regret-rejoice matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives. Then the comprehensive regret-rejoice value of each alternative relative to the others is calculated to determine the ranking order of alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the feasibility and validity of the method.
引文
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