考虑后悔行为的灰色应急决策方法
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摘要
针对实施不同方案各情景发生概率不同的应急响应风险决策问题,提出基于后悔理论和区间灰数信息的突发事件应急决策方法.方法考虑到决策者的后悔规避的心理行为,建立了方案两两比较的灰色后悔-欣喜值矩阵,并通过计算每个方案相对于其他所有方案的总体灰色后悔-欣喜值对方案进行排序;最后,通过具体算例验证了方法的可行性和有效性.
A decision method based on regret theory and interval grey numbers is proposed in this paper to deal with the risky decision problem for emergency response in which the scenario probabilities are different when implementing different emergency plans. Considering the decision-maker's regret aversion, we construct the grey regret-rejoice matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives. Then the comprehensive regret-rejoice value of each alternative relative to the others is calculated to determine the ranking order of alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the feasibility and validity of the method.
A decision method based on regret theory and interval grey numbers is proposed in this paper to deal with the risky decision problem for emergency response in which the scenario probabilities are different when implementing different emergency plans. Considering the decision-maker's regret aversion, we construct the grey regret-rejoice matrix on pairwise comparisons of alternatives. Then the comprehensive regret-rejoice value of each alternative relative to the others is calculated to determine the ranking order of alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is presented to show the feasibility and validity of the method.
引文
[1]杨文国,黄钧,池宏,祁明亮信息缺失下的应急方案选择模型及其算法研究[J].中国管理科学,2007, 15(专辑):729-732.
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[4]Liu Y, Fan Z P, Yuan Y, et al. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response[J]. Computers&Operations Research, 2014,42:49-57.
[5]Yang J J, Xu C H. Emergency decision engineering model based on sequential games[J]. Systems Engineering Procedia, 2011, 51(2):307-315.
[6]李永海,樊治平,袁媛.考虑应急方案实施效果的突发事件应急方案生成方法[J].控制与决策,2014,29(2):275-280
[7]樊治平,刘洋,沈荣鉴.基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):977-984.
[8]Liu Y, Fan Z P, Zhang Y. Risk decision analysis in emergency response:A method based on cumulative prospect theory[J]. Computers&:Operations Research, 2014, 42:75-82
[9]袁媛,刘洋,樊治平.考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2630-2636.
[10]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.考虑后悔规避的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统管理学报,2014, 23(1):111-117.
[11]刘思峰,方志耕,谢乃明基于核和灰度的区间灰数运算法则[J].系统工程与电子技术,2010, 32(2):313-316.
[12]钱丽丽,刘思峰,方志耕.基于后悔理论的灰色随机多准则决策方法[J].控制与决策,2017, 32(6):1069-1074.
[13]Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J]. Operations Research, 1982, 30(5):961-981.
[14]Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory:An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty[J].The Economic Journal, 1982, 92(368):805-824.
[15]Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[16]Chorus C G. Regret theory based route choices and traffic equilibria[J]. Transportmetrica, 2010,8(4):291-305.
[17]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.基于后悔理论的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013, 33(9):2313-1320.
[2]管清云,陈雪龙,王延章.基于距离熵的应急决策层信息融合方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015, 35(1):216-227.
[3]陈兴,王勇,吴凌云,闫桂英,朱伟多阶段多目标多部门应急决策模型[J].系统工程理论与实践,2010,30(11):1977-1985.
[4]Liu Y, Fan Z P, Yuan Y, et al. A FTA-based method for risk decision-making in emergency response[J]. Computers&Operations Research, 2014,42:49-57.
[5]Yang J J, Xu C H. Emergency decision engineering model based on sequential games[J]. Systems Engineering Procedia, 2011, 51(2):307-315.
[6]李永海,樊治平,袁媛.考虑应急方案实施效果的突发事件应急方案生成方法[J].控制与决策,2014,29(2):275-280
[7]樊治平,刘洋,沈荣鉴.基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2012, 32(5):977-984.
[8]Liu Y, Fan Z P, Zhang Y. Risk decision analysis in emergency response:A method based on cumulative prospect theory[J]. Computers&:Operations Research, 2014, 42:75-82
[9]袁媛,刘洋,樊治平.考虑后悔规避的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2015,35(10):2630-2636.
[10]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.考虑后悔规避的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统管理学报,2014, 23(1):111-117.
[11]刘思峰,方志耕,谢乃明基于核和灰度的区间灰数运算法则[J].系统工程与电子技术,2010, 32(2):313-316.
[12]钱丽丽,刘思峰,方志耕.基于后悔理论的灰色随机多准则决策方法[J].控制与决策,2017, 32(6):1069-1074.
[13]Bell D E. Regret in decision making under uncertainty[J]. Operations Research, 1982, 30(5):961-981.
[14]Loomes G, Sugden R. Regret theory:An alternative theory of rational choice under uncertainty[J].The Economic Journal, 1982, 92(368):805-824.
[15]Tversky A, Kahneman D. Advances in prospect theory:Cumulative representation of uncertainty[J].Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1992, 5(4):297-323.
[16]Chorus C G. Regret theory based route choices and traffic equilibria[J]. Transportmetrica, 2010,8(4):291-305.
[17]张晓,樊治平,陈发动.基于后悔理论的风险型多属性决策方法[J].系统工程理论与实践,2013, 33(9):2313-1320.