入境旅游在中国区域的分布特征与客源对接研究
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摘要
采用市场集中度指数、区位基尼系数和统计归纳法,探究了入境旅游在中国区域的分布特征及其动态,分析它们之间的客源对接及其变化,并对入境旅游客源市场进行多维视角的科学分类。研究发现:(1)各客源市场在我国省区的集中程度差异较大,同时几乎所有客源市场的集中程度在逐渐削弱,削弱原因在于:高比例省区之间、高比例省区和低比例省区组群之间的差异逐渐缩小。(2)各客源市场的主要分布省区构成变化较小,广东、上海、北京、江苏、浙江成为各客源市场对接的主要分布密集省区。根据系统聚类、分布特征和客源对接等结果,各客源市场被划分为高度集中型、较高集中型和分布递减型。
Based on the market concentration index,the locational gini coefficient and the statistic inductive method,this paper probed the structure characteristics,difference characteristics and the dynamics about the distributions of the source markets in China's regions,and analyzed their source dockings. At last,this paper scientifically classified the main source markets from the multi-dimensional perspective. The results showed that:(1)The concentration degree of source market in China' s regions was great different among all the source markets,also the concentration degrees of almost all the source markets were gradually weakened. The reason for the weakening was that the difference among the high proportion provinces and the difference between the high proportion province group and the low proportion province group were gradually narrowing.(2)The main distribution province of each source market varied little for the three time periods from 1997 to 2015. Guangdong,Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu and Zhejiang became the main distribution provinces with high density for all the source markets. Furthermore,the source markets were divided into high concentration type,superior concentration type and distribution decline type,according to the results of the system clustering,the distribution characteristics and the source docking.
Based on the market concentration index,the locational gini coefficient and the statistic inductive method,this paper probed the structure characteristics,difference characteristics and the dynamics about the distributions of the source markets in China's regions,and analyzed their source dockings. At last,this paper scientifically classified the main source markets from the multi-dimensional perspective. The results showed that:(1)The concentration degree of source market in China' s regions was great different among all the source markets,also the concentration degrees of almost all the source markets were gradually weakened. The reason for the weakening was that the difference among the high proportion provinces and the difference between the high proportion province group and the low proportion province group were gradually narrowing.(2)The main distribution province of each source market varied little for the three time periods from 1997 to 2015. Guangdong,Shanghai,Beijing,Jiangsu and Zhejiang became the main distribution provinces with high density for all the source markets. Furthermore,the source markets were divided into high concentration type,superior concentration type and distribution decline type,according to the results of the system clustering,the distribution characteristics and the source docking.
引文
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[17]刘法建,陈冬冬,朱建华,等.中国省际入境旅游客源市场结构与互动格局——基于2-模网络分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8)∶932-940.
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[21]王铮,袁宇杰,熊文.重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响——基于ADL模型的分析[J].旅游学刊,2010,25(4)∶44-49.
[22]赵多平,孙根年,苏建军.中国边境入境旅游的客流演化态势及其动因分析——新疆、内蒙、云南三省区的比较研究[J].人文地理,2012,(5)∶134-139.
[23]阎友兵,洪梅,王忠.我国旅行社产业集中度演化及对策[J].旅游学刊,2008,23(8)∶74-79.
[24]刘昌雪.产业服务型商务酒店客源市场空间结构特征——以苏州工业园区某高档商务国际连锁酒店为例[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(2)∶61-68.
[25]曾伏娥,袁靖波.多市场接触、市场集中度与企业非伦理行为[J].管理世界,2016,(6)∶118-132.
[26]文玫.中国工业在区域上的重新定位和聚集[J].经济研究,2004,(2)∶84-94.
[27]蒲业潇.理解区位基尼系数:局限性与基准分布的选择[J].统计研究,2011,28(9)∶101-109.
[28]吴爱芝,孙铁山,李国平.中国纺织服装产业的空间集聚与区域转移[J].地理学报,2013,68(6)∶775-790.
[29]戴平生.区位基尼系数的计算、性质及其应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,(7)∶149-161.
[30]张广瑞.关于中国旅游发展的理性思考[J].中国软科学,2011,(2)∶16-33.
[2]Jansen-verbeke M,Spee R. A Regional Analysis of Tourist Flows Within Europe[J]. Tourism Management,1995,16(1)∶73-82.
[3]Pearce D G. Japanese Tourists in Europe[J]. Geographical Review of Japan,1995,68(1)∶63-74.
[4]Oppermann M. International Tourist Flows in Malaysia[J]. Annals of Tourism Research,1992,19(3)∶482-500.
[5]Baláz V,Mitsutake M. Japanese Tourists in Transition Countries of Central Europe:Present Behavior and Future Trends[J]. Tourism Management,1998,19(5)∶433-443.
[6]Kim S S,Agrusa J,Lee H,et al. Effects of Korean Television Dramas on the Flow of Japanese Tourists[J]. Tourism Management,2007,28(5)∶1340-1353.
[7]Balli F,Balli H O,Cebeci K. Impacts of Exported Turkish Soap Operas and Visa-free Entry on Inbound Tourism to Turkey[J]. Tourism Management,2013,37(3)∶186-192.
[8]Andraz J M,Rodrigues P M M. Monitoring Tourism Flows and Destination Management:Empirical Evidence for Portugal[J]. Tourism Management,2016,56(5)∶1-7.
[9]Balli F,Balli H O,Louis R J. The Impacts of Immigrants and Institutions on Bilateral Tourism Flows[J]. Tourism Management,2016,52(1)∶221-229.
[10]陈秀琼,黄福才.中国入境旅游的区域差异特征分析[J].地理学报,2006,61(12)∶1271-1280.
[11]王凯,易静,李皓.中国入境旅游发展的时空差异演变分析:1991—2010[J].人文地理,2014,29(1)∶134-140.
[12]吴良平,张健.入境游客在中国区域的动态分布及其预测研究——基于带虚拟变量的ARIMA模型[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(11)∶74-86.
[13]李秋雨,朱麟奇,刘继生.中国入境旅游的经济增长效应与空间差异性研究[J].地理科学,2017,37(10)∶1552-1559.
[14]陈刚强,李映辉.中国区域旅游规模的空间结构与变化[J].旅游学刊,2011,26(11)∶84-89.
[15]刘法建,张捷,陈冬冬.中国入境旅游流网络结构特征及动因研究[J].地理学报,2010,65(8)∶1013-1024.
[16]薛佳,孙根年.周边国家到我国沿边省区入境旅游的O-D对接关系[J].旅游学刊,2010,25(4)∶39-43.
[17]刘法建,陈冬冬,朱建华,等.中国省际入境旅游客源市场结构与互动格局——基于2-模网络分析[J].地理科学进展,2016,35(8)∶932-940.
[18]陈勇,刘莉莎.入境游的客源市场结构研究——广东案例及其启示意义[J].经济管理,2014,36(1)∶22-130.
[19]纪小美,陈金华.福建省入境旅游市场时空动态变化及其拓展对策[J].经济地理,2013,33(5)∶158-164.
[20]成观雄,喻晓玲.突发事件对边疆地区入境旅游的影响——以新疆“7. 5”事件为例[J].经济地理,2015,35(5)∶204-208.
[21]王铮,袁宇杰,熊文.重大事件对上海市入境旅游需求的影响——基于ADL模型的分析[J].旅游学刊,2010,25(4)∶44-49.
[22]赵多平,孙根年,苏建军.中国边境入境旅游的客流演化态势及其动因分析——新疆、内蒙、云南三省区的比较研究[J].人文地理,2012,(5)∶134-139.
[23]阎友兵,洪梅,王忠.我国旅行社产业集中度演化及对策[J].旅游学刊,2008,23(8)∶74-79.
[24]刘昌雪.产业服务型商务酒店客源市场空间结构特征——以苏州工业园区某高档商务国际连锁酒店为例[J].旅游学刊,2015,30(2)∶61-68.
[25]曾伏娥,袁靖波.多市场接触、市场集中度与企业非伦理行为[J].管理世界,2016,(6)∶118-132.
[26]文玫.中国工业在区域上的重新定位和聚集[J].经济研究,2004,(2)∶84-94.
[27]蒲业潇.理解区位基尼系数:局限性与基准分布的选择[J].统计研究,2011,28(9)∶101-109.
[28]吴爱芝,孙铁山,李国平.中国纺织服装产业的空间集聚与区域转移[J].地理学报,2013,68(6)∶775-790.
[29]戴平生.区位基尼系数的计算、性质及其应用[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015,(7)∶149-161.
[30]张广瑞.关于中国旅游发展的理性思考[J].中国软科学,2011,(2)∶16-33.