CAS视角下创新成功率与创新周期对两类创新模式的影响
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摘要
创新模式选择有着复杂的内外部因素,现有研究缺少对核心因素与不同创新模式之间影响机理、影响结果的详细刻画。鉴于此,引入复杂适应系统理论,将影响因素集中于创新成功率和创新周期,抓住企业发展过程中生产销售、创新、贷款、还款等核心环节,建立基于主体的仿真模型。结果表明:①创新成功率对两类企业存活数量有正向影响,且对渐进式创新企业影响更显著,创新成功率与企业平均资金余额正相关,当突破式创新成功率超过渐进式创新成功率一半时,突破式创新企业平均资金余额大于渐进式创新企业平均资金余额;②创新周期与突破式创新企业存活数量、渐进式创新企业存活数量之间不存在明显关系,但与两类企业平均资金余额呈负相关;③创新成功率和创新周期对两类企业平均资金余额变化有正向协同作用,且该协同作用对突破式创新企业更显著。
The selection on innovation models is affected by complex internal and external factors.More details about the interactions between factors and innovation models need to be studied.This paper analyzed the impacts of successful probability and innovation cycle on enterprise radical innovation and incremental innovation in perspective of Complex Adaptive System perspective.The results show that, Firstly, successful probability has a positive effect on the number of surviving enterprises, and it is more significant to the incremental innovation enterprises.Successful probability is positively related to the average capital of the two types of enterprises.When the radical innovation successful probability is equal to or higher than 1/2 probability of incremental innovation, the radical innovative enterprises average funds is higher than incremental innovation enterprises.Secondly, there is not obvious relationship between innovation cycle and the number of surviving enterprises, but there are obvious impacts on innovation average funds.Thirdly, the successful probability and innovation cycle have synergies effect on enterprises average funds.And it's more evidence on radical innovation.
The selection on innovation models is affected by complex internal and external factors.More details about the interactions between factors and innovation models need to be studied.This paper analyzed the impacts of successful probability and innovation cycle on enterprise radical innovation and incremental innovation in perspective of Complex Adaptive System perspective.The results show that, Firstly, successful probability has a positive effect on the number of surviving enterprises, and it is more significant to the incremental innovation enterprises.Successful probability is positively related to the average capital of the two types of enterprises.When the radical innovation successful probability is equal to or higher than 1/2 probability of incremental innovation, the radical innovative enterprises average funds is higher than incremental innovation enterprises.Secondly, there is not obvious relationship between innovation cycle and the number of surviving enterprises, but there are obvious impacts on innovation average funds.Thirdly, the successful probability and innovation cycle have synergies effect on enterprises average funds.And it's more evidence on radical innovation.
引文
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[25] RITALA P,SAINIO L M.Coopetition for radical innovation:technology,market and business-model perspectives[J].Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,2014,26(2):155-169.
[26] DEWAR R D,DUTTON J E.The adoption of radical and incremental innovations:an empirical analysis[J].Management Science,1986,32(11):1422-1433.
[27] ALI A,KALWANI M U.Selecting product development projects:pioneering versus incremental innovation strategies[J].Management Science,2011,22(24):30-30.
[28] 盛光华,张志远.补贴方式对创新模式选择影响的演化博弈研究[J].管理科学学报,2015(9):34-45.
[29] 梅德强,龙勇.不确定性环境下创业能力与创新类型关系研究[J].科学学研究,2010(9):1413-1421.
[30] CLAUSEN T H.Firm heterogeneity within industries:how important is "industry" to innovation[J].Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,2013,25(5):527-542.
[31] 龚艳萍,陈艳丽.企业创新网络的复杂适应系统特征分析[J].研究与发展管理,2010(1):68-74.
[32] HOLLAND J H.Studying complex adaptive systems[J].Journal of Systems Science & Complexity,2006,19(1):1-8.
[33] 尹智刚,王延章,倪子建.基于Agent的技术合作创新仿真模型[J].管理评论,2016(11):75-84.
[34] SORESCU A B,CHANDY R K,PRABHU J C.Sources and financial consequences of radical innovation:insights from pharmaceuticals[J].Journal of Marketing,2003,67(4):82-102.
[35] FORéS B,CAMISóN C.Does incremental and radical innovation performance depend on different types of knowledge accumulation capabilities and organizational size?[J].Journal of Business Research,2016,69(2):831-848.
[2] CARAYANNIS E G,SINDAKIS S,WALTER C.Business model innovation as lever of organizational sustainability[J].Journal of Technology Transfer,2015,40(1):85-104.
[3] LASSEN A H,GERSTEN F,RIIS J O.The nexus of corportate entrepreneurship and radical innovation[J].Creativity and Innovation Management,2006,15(4):359-372.
[4] 张春辉,陈继祥.两种创新补贴对创新模式选择影响的比较分析[J].科研管理,2011(8):9-16.
[5] 程聪,曹烈冰,张颖.中小企业渐进式创新影响因素结构分析——资源基础还是能力制胜[J].科学学研究,2014(9):1415-1422.
[6] MCDERMOTT C M.Managing radical innovation:an overview of emergent strategy issues[J].Journal of Product Innovation Management,2002,19(6):424-438.
[7] G M J.Rationality,foolishness,and adaptive intelligence[J].Strategic Management Journal,2006,27(3):201-214.
[8] G?K O,PEKER S.Understanding the links among innovation performance,market performance and financial performance[J].Review of Managerial Science,2016,11(3):1-27.
[9] GWARDA-GRUSZCZYNSKA E.Determinants of commercialization strategy choice in high-tech industries[C].International Atlantic Economic Conference,2011.
[10] ZHANG G,DUAN H,ZHOU J.Network stability,connectivity and innovation output[J].Technological Forecasting and Social Change,2017,114(Supplement C):339-349.
[11] ROSENBUSCH N,BRINCKMANN J,BAUSCH A.Is innovation always beneficial?a meta-analysis of the relationship between innovation and performance in SMEs[J].Journal of Business Venturing,2011,26(4):441-457.
[12] BURT R S.Structural holes :the social structure of competition[M]. Harvard University Press,2010.
[13] 李随成,武梦超.供应商整合能力对渐进式创新与突破式创新的影响——基于环境动态性的调节作用[J].科技进步与对策,2016(3):96-102.
[14] 林春培,张振刚.基于吸收能力的组织学习过程对渐进性创新与突破性创新的影响研究[J].科研管理,2017(4):38-45.
[15] MARTíNEZ-SENRA A I,QUINTáS M A,SARTAL A,et al.How can firms′ basic research turn into product innovation? The role of absorptive capacity and industry appropriability[J].IEEE Transactions on Engineering Management,2015,62(2):205-216.
[16] 易余胤,盛昭瀚,肖条军.企业自主创新、模仿创新行为与市场结构的演化研究[J].管理工程学报,2005(1):14-18.
[17] 李柏洲,苏屹.大型企业原始创新模式选择研究[J].中国软科学,2011(12):120-127.
[18] ASHEIM B,COENEN L.The role of regional innovation systems in a globalising economy:comparing knowledge bases and institutional frameworks in Nordic Clusters[J].Papers in Innovation Studies,2005.
[19] CUI Z,LOCH C,GROSSMANN B,et al.How provider selection and management contribute to successful innovation outsourcing:an empirical study at siemens[J].Production & Operations Management,2012,21(1):29–48.
[20] 林海芬,苏敬勤.管理创新研究方法探析:探索性与解释性案例研究法的结合[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2010(6):59-65.
[21] 林萍.企业资源、动态能力对创新作用的实证研究[J].科研管理,2012(10):72-79.
[22] CORPORAAL G,FERGUSON J,LEVINA N.Creating windows of opportunity:sustaining radical innovation when moving from R&D to production[J].Academy of Management Annual Meeting Proceedings,2015(1):187.
[23] RICE M,KELLEY D,PETERS L,et al.Radical innovation:triggering initiation of opportunity recognition and evaluation[J].R&D Management,2001,31(4):409–420.
[24] CHRISTENSEN C M,RAYNOR M,MCDONALD R.What is disruptive innovation?[J].Harvard Business Review,2015,93(12):44-53.
[25] RITALA P,SAINIO L M.Coopetition for radical innovation:technology,market and business-model perspectives[J].Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,2014,26(2):155-169.
[26] DEWAR R D,DUTTON J E.The adoption of radical and incremental innovations:an empirical analysis[J].Management Science,1986,32(11):1422-1433.
[27] ALI A,KALWANI M U.Selecting product development projects:pioneering versus incremental innovation strategies[J].Management Science,2011,22(24):30-30.
[28] 盛光华,张志远.补贴方式对创新模式选择影响的演化博弈研究[J].管理科学学报,2015(9):34-45.
[29] 梅德强,龙勇.不确定性环境下创业能力与创新类型关系研究[J].科学学研究,2010(9):1413-1421.
[30] CLAUSEN T H.Firm heterogeneity within industries:how important is "industry" to innovation[J].Technology Analysis & Strategic Management,2013,25(5):527-542.
[31] 龚艳萍,陈艳丽.企业创新网络的复杂适应系统特征分析[J].研究与发展管理,2010(1):68-74.
[32] HOLLAND J H.Studying complex adaptive systems[J].Journal of Systems Science & Complexity,2006,19(1):1-8.
[33] 尹智刚,王延章,倪子建.基于Agent的技术合作创新仿真模型[J].管理评论,2016(11):75-84.
[34] SORESCU A B,CHANDY R K,PRABHU J C.Sources and financial consequences of radical innovation:insights from pharmaceuticals[J].Journal of Marketing,2003,67(4):82-102.
[35] FORéS B,CAMISóN C.Does incremental and radical innovation performance depend on different types of knowledge accumulation capabilities and organizational size?[J].Journal of Business Research,2016,69(2):831-848.