我国新能源对化石能源的替代效应研究
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摘要
基于1957-2015年我国新能源与化石能源相关数据,运用能源自给率、能源替代度、能源对外依存度、碳排放量及延伸的能量守恒定律与扩展的C-D生产函数,研究新能源对化石能源的替代效应及其内外驱动因素。能源资源约束、生态环境约束倒逼能源替代进程,新能源替代效应虽稳步上升至0.14,但能源供给体系单一、新能源产业发展矛盾制约了新能源的替代进度。多方程比对结果显示,新能源替代效应从高到低依次受到环境效应、技术效应、政策效应、经济效应及政治效应的影响,其中,经济效应因受环境效应、技术效应、政策效应影响,政策效应因受环境效应、技术效应影响,其变量符号与预设符号发生背离,说明当前新能源发展与政策引导效果并不显著,与目标发生背离。因此,将绿色发展理念融入新能源政策、制度之中,进一步突破技术瓶颈,是实现新能源与化石能源有效替代的必然选择。
Based on the substitution law and typical features of Chinese energy, this paper researched the possibility of the new energy taking over the fossil energy. Using the energy data from 1957 to 2015, the article calculated energy self-sufficiency rate, depended on foreign energy,carbon emissions and analysed the energy conservation law and the extension of the C-D production function. On the basis of data calculation, this paper believes that the energy resource constraints, environmental constraints forced the energy substitution process, and the new energy substitution has steadily increased to 0.14. The influence factors of new energy are environment,technology, policy, economy and politics from high to low. Due to environmental and technical factors, the symbol of economic and policy factors deviated from the presupposition symbol. This shows that the current new energy development and policy guidance is not significant, and there is a deviation from the new normal target. Therefore, we should integrate the new normal development target into the future new energy policy, further break through the technical bottleneck, and achieve effective substitution between the new energy and the fossil energy.
Based on the substitution law and typical features of Chinese energy, this paper researched the possibility of the new energy taking over the fossil energy. Using the energy data from 1957 to 2015, the article calculated energy self-sufficiency rate, depended on foreign energy,carbon emissions and analysed the energy conservation law and the extension of the C-D production function. On the basis of data calculation, this paper believes that the energy resource constraints, environmental constraints forced the energy substitution process, and the new energy substitution has steadily increased to 0.14. The influence factors of new energy are environment,technology, policy, economy and politics from high to low. Due to environmental and technical factors, the symbol of economic and policy factors deviated from the presupposition symbol. This shows that the current new energy development and policy guidance is not significant, and there is a deviation from the new normal target. Therefore, we should integrate the new normal development target into the future new energy policy, further break through the technical bottleneck, and achieve effective substitution between the new energy and the fossil energy.
引文
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[10]吴静.新能源革命能否促进我国工业绿色转型--基于因素分解法的实证分析[J].经济体制改革,2017(2):184-191.
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[2]徐小杰.2020年前能源供需增长依然强劲[EB/OL].http://www.escn.com.cn/news/show-227984.html,2015-03-25.
[3]罗来军,朱善利,邹宗宪.我国新能源战略的重大技术挑战及化解对策[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2015(2):113-128.
[4]国家发展改革委.能源生产和消费革命战略(2016-2030)[EB/OL].http://www.ndrc.gov.cn/zcfb/zcfbtz/201704/t20170425_845284.html,2016-12-29.
[5]邹洋.我国新能源和可再生能源的替代效应分析[J].经济体制改革,2015(6):185-190.
[6]李河君.新能源“终极替代”不可逆转[EB/OL].http://news.bjx.com.cn/html/20150414/608001.shtml,2015-04-14.
[7]庞晓华.2035年前化石燃料仍将主导全球能源市场[J].石油炼制与化工简讯,2016(5):73.
[8]胡见义.化石能源难以代替[J].中国经济和信息化,2013(21):19-20.
[9]知乎日报.新能源在将来会完全替代煤炭石油等旧能源吗?[EB/OL].http://www.xinwenge.net/know/zhihu/e562d645.html,2017-04-10.
[10]吴静.新能源革命能否促进我国工业绿色转型--基于因素分解法的实证分析[J].经济体制改革,2017(2):184-191.
[11]加勒特哈丁著,戴星翼、张真译.生活在极限之内:生态学、经济学和人口禁忌[M].上海:上海译文出版社,2007.