化石能源价格变动对中国碳交易价格的影响研究
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摘要
化石能源燃烧产生的二氧化碳是碳排放的主要来源,因此化石能源价格变动是碳配额交易价格变动的重要影响因素之一。基于2013年11月至2017年12月的数据,通过建立回归模型实证分析化石能源价格变动对碳市场交易价格的具体影响。研究结果表明,化石能源价格的变动与北京碳交易所市场碳配额市场交易价格之间存在一定的正相关;煤炭以及石油价格的上涨均能促进碳配额交易价格上涨,其中石油价格变动引起的碳配额交易价格变动相对于煤炭价格变动引起的碳交易价格变动影响效果较小。
The carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil energy is the main source of carbon emission, so the change of fossil energy price is one of the important factors influencing the change of carbon quota trading price. Based on the data from November 2013 to December 2017, a regression model was established to empirically analyze the impact of changes in fossil energy prices on carbon market transaction prices. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the change of fossil energy price and the trading price of carbon quota in Beijing carbon exchange market. The increase of coal and oil price can promote the increase of carbon quota trading price, and the change of carbon quota trading price caused by the change of oil price is less effective than the change of carbon trading price caused by the change of coal price.
The carbon dioxide produced by burning fossil energy is the main source of carbon emission, so the change of fossil energy price is one of the important factors influencing the change of carbon quota trading price. Based on the data from November 2013 to December 2017, a regression model was established to empirically analyze the impact of changes in fossil energy prices on carbon market transaction prices. The results show that there is a positive correlation between the change of fossil energy price and the trading price of carbon quota in Beijing carbon exchange market. The increase of coal and oil price can promote the increase of carbon quota trading price, and the change of carbon quota trading price caused by the change of oil price is less effective than the change of carbon trading price caused by the change of coal price.
引文
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[3]Convery F J,Redmond L.Market and Price Developments in the European Union E-missions Trading Scheme[J].Review of Environmental Economics&Policy,2007(1).
[4]Emilie Alberola,Julien Chevallier,Benot Ch侉ze.Price drivers and structural breaks in European carbon prices 2005-2007[J].Energy Policy,2007(2).
[5]张跃军、魏一鸣.化石能源市场对国际碳市场的动态影响实证研究[J].管理评论,2010(6).
[6]王双英、李东、王群伟.国际石油价格对世界碳交易市场的影响研究[J].价格理论与实践,2011(3).
[7]邹亚生、魏薇.碳排放核证减排量(CER)现货价格影响因素研究[J].金融研究,2013(10).
[8]陈欣、刘明、刘延.碳交易价格的驱动因素与结构性断点——基于中国七个碳交易试点的实证研究[J].经济问题,2016(11).
[9]赵立祥、胡灿.我国碳排放权交易价格影响因素研究——基于结构方程模型的实证分析[J].价格理论与实践,2016(7).(作者单位:兰州理工大学)