2019年夏季全国气候趋势展望
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摘要
2019年春夏季,赤道中东太平洋将维持弱-中等强度厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)。中国科学院大气物理研究所的全国气候趋势预测结果表明,预计2019年汛期(6—8月),长江中下游以南大部分地区降水偏多,其中江南地区偏多2—5成,可能发生局地洪涝灾害;新疆北部、东北北部、四川东部和陕西南部等地降水正常略偏多。我国其他大部分地区降水正常略偏少,其中河套地区降水偏少2—5成。预计2019年登陆台风数正常略偏多。
The ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IAP, CAS) predicts that El Ni?o conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer 2019. According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction of IAP, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of southern China, North parts of Northeast China and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer. The center of less-than-normal precipitation is located in the Hetao area. The landing typhoon will be more than normal in the summer of 2019.
The ENSO prediction system of Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences(IAP, CAS) predicts that El Ni?o conditions are likely to continue through the Northern Hemisphere spring and summer 2019. According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction of IAP, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for most parts of southern China, North parts of Northeast China and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The other parts of China will experience a drier-than-normal condition during the boreal summer. The center of less-than-normal precipitation is located in the Hetao area. The landing typhoon will be more than normal in the summer of 2019.
引文
1孔锋.应急管理部成立背景下中国综合气象防灾减灾现状、挑战与发展机遇.中国减灾,2019,34(3):34-37.
2林朝晖,李旭,赵彦,等.中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测.气候与环境研究,1998,3(4):52-61.
3卫捷,杨辉,孙淑清.西太平洋副热带高压东西位置异常与华北夏季酷暑.气象学报,2004,62(2):308-316.
4邹旭恺,高辉.2006年夏季川渝高温干旱分析.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):149-153.
5彭京备,张庆云,布和朝鲁.2006年川渝地区高温干旱特征及其成因分析.气候与环境研究,2007,12(3):464-474.
6史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析.大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.
7 Ji L R,Sun S Q.Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and its influence.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(1):1-22.
8张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流.气象学报,2003,61:559-568.
9穆松宁,周广庆.冬季欧亚大陆北部新增雪盖面积变化与中国夏季气候异常的关系.大气科学,2010,34(1):213-226.
(1)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.shtml.
(2)https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current.
2林朝晖,李旭,赵彦,等.中国科学院大气物理研究所短期气候预测系统的改进及其对1998年全国汛期旱涝形势的预测.气候与环境研究,1998,3(4):52-61.
3卫捷,杨辉,孙淑清.西太平洋副热带高压东西位置异常与华北夏季酷暑.气象学报,2004,62(2):308-316.
4邹旭恺,高辉.2006年夏季川渝高温干旱分析.气候变化研究进展,2007,3(3):149-153.
5彭京备,张庆云,布和朝鲁.2006年川渝地区高温干旱特征及其成因分析.气候与环境研究,2007,12(3):464-474.
6史军,丁一汇,崔林丽.华东极端高温气候特征及成因分析.大气科学,2009,33(2):347-358.
7 Ji L R,Sun S Q.Model study on the interannual variability of Asian winter monsoon and its influence.Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,1997,14(1):1-22.
8张庆云,陶诗言,陈烈庭.东亚夏季风指数的年际变化与东亚大气环流.气象学报,2003,61:559-568.
9穆松宁,周广庆.冬季欧亚大陆北部新增雪盖面积变化与中国夏季气候异常的关系.大气科学,2010,34(1):213-226.
(1)http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/impacts/warm_impacts.shtml.
(2)https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#current.