中国区域旅游发展潜力演变格局与影响因素分析
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摘要
以中国31个省级行政单元为研究区域(不含港澳台)。综合运用熵权法、标准差法、多元线性回归分析等方法对中国区域旅游发展潜力格局演变及主导影响因素分析。结果表明:(1)中国省际间旅游发展潜力呈现出东南高西北低的格局,省际间区域差异随时间变化呈现出缩小—扩大—缩小的趋势。(2)东部地区的旅游发展潜力差异最大,中部、西部和东北部区域的差异整体较小且三大经济区之间的差异也较小。(3)中国区域旅游发展潜力的主导因素包括旅游业总收入、接待旅游总人数、床位数、第三产业从业人数、旅游院校学生数、国内外进出口总额。(4)中国区域旅游发展潜力的四种类型区为:市场需求主导潜力区、区域供给主导潜力区、保障发展主导潜力区、经济支持主导潜力区,依据不同类型区的特征和存在问题,针对性的提出了发展对策与建议。
This study takes 31 provincial administrative units in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan of China due to statistic data shortage) as the study area.Firstly,we use quantitative methods such as entropy method and standard deviation to quantitatively study the evolution of the regional tourism development potentials of the 31 units,and then use multiple linear regression analysis model and geo-detector model to screen out the leading factors that have a great impact on the potential.The units are grouped into different types of tourism development potential areas with particular development models and recommendations for each type.The results show as follows:(1) The development potential of interprovincial tourism in China presents a trend with high value in the southeast,low value in the northwest and the potential was gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest.The inter-provincial regional differences show a pattern which was shrunk first,then enlarged and then shrunk again along with the time.(2) The tourism development potential in the eastern region has the largest difference,while the differences in the central,western,and northeast regions are generally small.(3) The leading factors in China's regional tourism development potential include the total tourism revenue,total number of tourist accommodated,number of beds,number of employees in the tertiary industry,number of students in tourism colleges,and total import and export volume at home and abroad.(4) The four types of the regional tourism development potential are: market demand-led type,regional supply-led type,guaranteed development-led type,and economy support-led type.According to the characteristics of each type,the corresponding development countermeasures and recommendations are proposed.
This study takes 31 provincial administrative units in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macau and Taiwan of China due to statistic data shortage) as the study area.Firstly,we use quantitative methods such as entropy method and standard deviation to quantitatively study the evolution of the regional tourism development potentials of the 31 units,and then use multiple linear regression analysis model and geo-detector model to screen out the leading factors that have a great impact on the potential.The units are grouped into different types of tourism development potential areas with particular development models and recommendations for each type.The results show as follows:(1) The development potential of interprovincial tourism in China presents a trend with high value in the southeast,low value in the northwest and the potential was gradually decreased from the southeast to the northwest.The inter-provincial regional differences show a pattern which was shrunk first,then enlarged and then shrunk again along with the time.(2) The tourism development potential in the eastern region has the largest difference,while the differences in the central,western,and northeast regions are generally small.(3) The leading factors in China's regional tourism development potential include the total tourism revenue,total number of tourist accommodated,number of beds,number of employees in the tertiary industry,number of students in tourism colleges,and total import and export volume at home and abroad.(4) The four types of the regional tourism development potential are: market demand-led type,regional supply-led type,guaranteed development-led type,and economy support-led type.According to the characteristics of each type,the corresponding development countermeasures and recommendations are proposed.
引文
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[19] 王兆峰.区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系构建研究[J].华东经济管理,2008,(10):31-35.[WANG Zhaofeng.The construction of systematic index of developing potential competence in regional tourism industry[J].East China Economic Management,2008,(10):31-35.]
[20] 叶新才,李洪波.区域旅游发展潜力评价体系框架构建[J].乐山师范学院学报,2011,26(5):51-56.[YE Xincai,LI Hongbo.Construction of evaluation platform for regional tourism development potential[J].Journal of Leshan Teachers College,2011,26(5):51-56.]
[21] 王伟,梁留科,李峰,等.河南省城镇化空间格局及影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2016,(24):144-147.[WANG Wei,LIANG Liuke,LI Feng,et al.Analysis of spatial pattern and influencing factors of urbanization in Henan Province[J].Statistics & Decision,2016,(24):144-147.]
[22] 王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[WANG Jinfeng,XU Chengdong.Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]
[2] KELLY M.Jordan’s potential tourism development[J].Annals of Tourism Research.1998,25(4):904-918.
[3] HUNTER C.Sustainable tourism as an adaptive paradigm[J].Annals of Tourism Research,1997,21(4):850-867.
[4] MCKERCHER B.The unrecognized threat to tourism:Can tourism survive ‘sustainability’?[J].Tourism Management,1993,14(2):131-136.
[5] 周彬,钟林生,陈田,等.基于生态位的黑龙江省中俄界江生态旅游潜力评价[J].资源科学,2014,36(6):1142-1151.[ZHOU Bin,ZHONG Linsheng,CHEN Tian,et al.The ecotourism potential of the Sino-Russian border river of Heilongjiang based on niche theory[J].Resources Science,2014,36(6):1142-1151.]
[6] 任宣羽,熊斌.资源型城市旅游发展潜力研究[J].特区经济,2012,(5):149-151.[REN Xuanyu,XIONG Bin.Research on tourism development potential of resource-based cities [J].Special Zone Economy,2012,(5):149-151.]
[7] 李灿金,罗明军.泸沽湖旅游开发现状及发展潜力[J].中南民族大学学报(人文社会科学版),2003,(增刊1):67-69.[LI Chanjin,LUO Mingjun.The current situation and development potential of tourism development in Lugu Lake[J].Journal of South-Central University for Nationalities(Humanities and Social Science),2003,(Suppl.1):67-69.]
[8] 郑淑婧,李经龙,张淑萍.中国出境旅游市场潜力的空间分布及深入发展对策分析[J].干旱区资源与环境,2005,(增刊1):55-59.[ZHENG Shujing,LI Jinglong,ZHANG Shuping.Analysis on the potential distribution of the outbound tourist market and suggestions on the further development in China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2005,(Suppl.1):55-59.]
[9] 王学峰,张辉.区域旅游发展潜力评价体系构建及应用研究——以西部地区为例[J].干旱区资源与环境,2013,27(12):203-208.[WANG Xuefeng,ZHANG Hui.The construction of index systematic for regional tourism development potential assessment[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2013,27(12):203-208.]
[10] 武传表.城市旅游发展潜力定量研究——以中国14个沿海开放城市为例[J].旅游论坛,2009,2(5):685-689,694.[WU Chuanbiao.Quantitative research on the potentiality of urban tourism development:Taking the open coastal cities in China as an example[J].Tourism Forum,2009,2(5):685-689,694.]
[11] 何方永.中国西部省域生态旅游发展潜力评价[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(4):189-194.[HE Fangyong.Evaluation of the ecoturism development potential for provinces in western China[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(4):189-194.]
[12] 刘晓英.基于AHP的山西旅游产业发展潜力测度与评价[J].山西大同大学学报(社会科学版),2014,28(3):98-102.[LIU Xiaoying.The measurement and evaluation of the tourism industry development potential in Shanxi Province based on the AHP[J].Journal of Shanxi Datong University(Social Science),2014,28(3):98-102.]
[13] 李向农.西安旅游产业集群形成和发展潜力研究[J].商业研究,2010,(3):116-119.[LI Xiangnong.Research on the formation and development potential of Xi’an tourism industry cluster[J].Commercial Research,2010,(3):116-119.]
[14] 王冠孝,梁留科.山西省城市旅游发展潜力评价研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2015,29(9):203-208.[WANG Guanxiao,LIANG Liuke.The evaluation on the urban tourism development potential in Shanxi Province[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2015,29(9):203-208.]
[15] 曹新向.中国省域旅游业发展潜力的比较研究[J].人文地理,2007,(1):18-22.[CAO Xinxiang.A comparison study on the development potential of trans provincial tourism industry in China[J].Human Geography,2007,(1):18-22.]
[16] 丁建军,朱群惠.我国区域旅游产业发展潜力的时空差异研究[J].旅游学刊,2012,27(2):52-61.[DING Jianjun,ZHU Qunhui.Study on spatial-temporal differences of development potential of regional tourism industry in China[J].Tourism Tribune,2012,27(2):52-61.]
[17] 杨敏.青海旅游产业的发展潜力评估[J]统计与决策,2006,(7):102-104.[YANG Min.Assessment of development potential of Qinghai tourism industry[J].Statistics & Decision,2006,(7):102-104.]
[18] 冯学刚,于秋阳.中国境内旅游产业潜力研究:区域差异与路径选择[J].管理学报,2010,7(4):577-584.[FENG Xuegang,YU Qiuyang.Study on the potential of Chinese tourism industry:Spatial variation and choice of development path[J].Chinese Journal of Management,2010,7( 4):577-584.]
[19] 王兆峰.区域旅游产业发展潜力评价指标体系构建研究[J].华东经济管理,2008,(10):31-35.[WANG Zhaofeng.The construction of systematic index of developing potential competence in regional tourism industry[J].East China Economic Management,2008,(10):31-35.]
[20] 叶新才,李洪波.区域旅游发展潜力评价体系框架构建[J].乐山师范学院学报,2011,26(5):51-56.[YE Xincai,LI Hongbo.Construction of evaluation platform for regional tourism development potential[J].Journal of Leshan Teachers College,2011,26(5):51-56.]
[21] 王伟,梁留科,李峰,等.河南省城镇化空间格局及影响因素分析[J].统计与决策,2016,(24):144-147.[WANG Wei,LIANG Liuke,LI Feng,et al.Analysis of spatial pattern and influencing factors of urbanization in Henan Province[J].Statistics & Decision,2016,(24):144-147.]
[22] 王劲峰,徐成东.地理探测器:原理与展望[J].地理学报,2017,72(1):116-134.[WANG Jinfeng,XU Chengdong.Geodetector:Principle and prospective[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2017,72(1):116-134.]