应用贝叶斯理论评估水下采油树可靠性
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摘要
水下采油树作为水下油气开采的重要设备,长期处于深海中,其可靠性直接影响整个水下生产系统的安全稳定运行。因此,为研究水下采油树系统的工作可靠性问题,提出一种基于贝叶斯理论的可靠性评估方法,该方法在融合模糊理论的基础上,并考虑到部件失效概率的动态性问题,并以构造的动态模糊子集来表述各根节点的失效概率。该方法有效改善了传统贝叶斯网络在处理故障信息存在模糊性及动态性等方面的问题,提高了系统可靠性分析结果的准确性。通过利用贝叶斯网络对水下采油树系统进行可靠性分析,以期为水下采油树的故障诊断与维修提供了理论依据和数据支撑。
Subsea X-treesis an important equipmentfor oil and gas exploitation,and its reliability is directly related to the safety and stability of subsea production system. In order to study the reliability of Christmastree system,a reliabilityanalysis methodfor Christmas tree system using BayesianNetwork isproposed. The method is based on fuzzy theory,and considering the dynamic problem of component failure probability,a dynamic fuzzy subset is constructed to describe the failure probability of node. The method effectively overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional Bias network in dealing with the fuzzy and dynamic nature of the fault information,and to improve the accuracy of reliability analysis of subsea X-trees system. By using Bayesian network to analyze the reliability of X-trees system,which provides the theoretical basis and data support for the fault diagnosis and maintenance of X-treessystem.
Subsea X-treesis an important equipmentfor oil and gas exploitation,and its reliability is directly related to the safety and stability of subsea production system. In order to study the reliability of Christmastree system,a reliabilityanalysis methodfor Christmas tree system using BayesianNetwork isproposed. The method is based on fuzzy theory,and considering the dynamic problem of component failure probability,a dynamic fuzzy subset is constructed to describe the failure probability of node. The method effectively overcomes the shortcomings of the traditional Bias network in dealing with the fuzzy and dynamic nature of the fault information,and to improve the accuracy of reliability analysis of subsea X-trees system. By using Bayesian network to analyze the reliability of X-trees system,which provides the theoretical basis and data support for the fault diagnosis and maintenance of X-treessystem.
引文
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[8]曹惠玲,杜鹏.基于贝叶斯网络的航空发动机燃油泵故障诊断[J].中国民航大学学报,2016,34(4):27-30.(Cao Hui-ling,Du Peng.Failure diagnosis of aero-engine fuel pump assembly based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2016,34(4):27-30.)
[9]任丽娜,王智明,雷春丽.数控机床贝叶斯可靠性评估模型的综合评价方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2016,50(7):1023-1029.(Ren Li-na,Wang Zhi-ming,Lei Chun-li.Comprehensive evaluation approach to bayesian reliability assessment model of NC machine tools[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2016,50(7):1023-1029.)
[10]陈东宁,姚成玉.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析及在液压系统中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2012,48(16):175-183.(Chen Dong-ning,Yao Cheng-yu.Reliability analysis of multi-state system based on fuzzy bayesian networks and application in hydraulic system[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2012,48(16):175-183.)
[11]Penz C A,Flesch C A,Nassar S M.Fuzzy-Bayesian network for refrigeration compressor performance prediction and test time reduction[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(4):4268-4273.
[12]周忠宝,董豆豆,周经伦.贝叶斯网络在可靠性分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(6):95-100.(Zhou Zhong-bao,Dong Dou-dou,Zhou Jing-lun.Applicationof bayesian networks in reliability analysis[J].Systems Engineering-theory and Practice,2006,26(6):95-100.)
[2]周其旺,邹树梁,郭平辉.沉降离心机故障树法可靠性分析[J].机械设计与制造,2013(8):200-202.(Zhou Qi-wang,Zou Shu-liang,Guo Ping-hui.Fault tree reliability analysis of reprocessing centrifug[J].Machinery Design and Manufacture,2013(8):200-202.
[3]张毅,刘混举.煤矿采空区电力杆塔自动调平液压系统可靠性设计[J].机械设计与制造,2016(8):150-153.(Zhang Yi,Liu Hun-ju.Reliability design of automatic leveling hydraulic system of power tower above coaf of goal mine[J].Machinery Design and Manufacture,2016(8):150-153.)
[4]何邵灿,高宏力,许明恒.基于隐马尔科夫模型的机床部件故障预警技术[J].机械设计与制造,2012(8):159-161.(He Shao-can,Gao Hong-li,Xu Ming-heng.Components of machine tools’s failure warning based of hidden markov model[J].Machinery Design and Manufacture,2012(8):159-161.)
[5]赵峰,刘荣峥,梁丽.基于贝叶斯网络融合共因失效的接触网系统可靠性分析[J].中国安全科学学报,2015,25(5):61-67.(Zhao Feng,Liu Rong-zheng,Liang Li.Reliability analysis of contact network system based on bayesian network fusion common cause failure[J].Chinese Journal of Safety Science,2015,25(5):61-67.)
[6]Khakzad N,Khan F,Amyotte P.Safety analysis in process facilities:comparison of fault tree and bayesiannetwork approaches[J].Reliability Engineering and System Safety,2011,96(8):925-932.
[7]尹晓伟,钱学文,谢里阳.系统可靠性的贝叶斯网络评估方法[D].航空学报.2008,29(6):1482-1489.(Yin Xiao-wei,Qing Xue-wen,Xie Li-yang.A Method for system reliabiltiy assessment based on bayesian networks[D].Acta Aeronautica Et Astronautica Sinica,2008,29(6):1482-1489.)
[8]曹惠玲,杜鹏.基于贝叶斯网络的航空发动机燃油泵故障诊断[J].中国民航大学学报,2016,34(4):27-30.(Cao Hui-ling,Du Peng.Failure diagnosis of aero-engine fuel pump assembly based on Bayesian network[J].Journal of Civil Aviation University of China,2016,34(4):27-30.)
[9]任丽娜,王智明,雷春丽.数控机床贝叶斯可靠性评估模型的综合评价方法[J].上海交通大学学报,2016,50(7):1023-1029.(Ren Li-na,Wang Zhi-ming,Lei Chun-li.Comprehensive evaluation approach to bayesian reliability assessment model of NC machine tools[J].Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University,2016,50(7):1023-1029.)
[10]陈东宁,姚成玉.基于模糊贝叶斯网络的多态系统可靠性分析及在液压系统中的应用[J].机械工程学报,2012,48(16):175-183.(Chen Dong-ning,Yao Cheng-yu.Reliability analysis of multi-state system based on fuzzy bayesian networks and application in hydraulic system[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2012,48(16):175-183.)
[11]Penz C A,Flesch C A,Nassar S M.Fuzzy-Bayesian network for refrigeration compressor performance prediction and test time reduction[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2012,39(4):4268-4273.
[12]周忠宝,董豆豆,周经伦.贝叶斯网络在可靠性分析中的应用[J].系统工程理论与实践,2006,26(6):95-100.(Zhou Zhong-bao,Dong Dou-dou,Zhou Jing-lun.Applicationof bayesian networks in reliability analysis[J].Systems Engineering-theory and Practice,2006,26(6):95-100.)