日本M_w 9.0级地震的库仑应力变化及对余震的触发
|
摘要
采用已公布的1个前震和3个主震震源可变滑动模型,计算了日本Mw7.3级前震、M_w9.0级主震产生的同震库仑应力变化,并采用哈佛Global CMT和日本F-net余震目录,在不同有效摩擦系数取值下计算了主震对余震的触发效应,分析了应力空间分布与余震活动空间分布的相关性。研究表明,日本地震前震对主震有触发作用,前震在主震处产生的正应力变化为0.404 bar,剪应力变化0.282 bar,同震库仑应力变化为0.517 bar,应力变化超过了应力触发阈值0.1 bar,达5倍之多,属于典型的地震应力触发,而非诱发事件。主震对后续余震有触发效应,最小触发率为57%,最大达到75%。余震多分布在主震产生的同震库仑应力红色加载区。同时,分析了可变滑动模型、有效摩擦系数、余震目录、震级及节面选取等对计算结果的影响。可变滑动模型、有效摩擦系数变化对计算结果影响不大,余震目录、震级及节面选取对结果有一定影响,尤其是当余震目录足够多、震级足够大时,计算结果更加可靠。为了深入讨论节面选取对计算结果的影响,对余震两个节面上库仑应力、剪切应力及正应力变化差值进行了频次统计。分析显示节面选取对正应力有一定影响,而对库仑应力及剪应力影响不大。
Based on four seismic source variable slipping models published,coseismic Coulomb stress changes produced by both Mw7.3 foreshock and M_w9.0 mainshock were calculate.Using both Harvard Global CMT and Japan F-net catalogs with effective friction factor give variable value,the stress triggering and effect on aftershocks imposed by mainshock are carried out and researched.Meanwhile,the spatial interrelationship between Coulomb stress change and aftershock distribution is preliminarily analyzed.The study illustrates that foreshock trigger subsequent mainshock,on which produce 0.404 bar of normal stress,0.282 bar of shear stress and as much as0.517 bar of coseimic Coulomb stress change.Especially,Coulomb stress change reaches more than five times of trigger threshold value of 0.1 bar,belonging to typical seismic stress triggering not inducing case.The mainshock has a obviously triggering on subsequent aftershocks,of which triggering percentage ranges from 57% to 75%.In other words,the numerous aftershocks fall into certain red region of stress loaded.Furthermore,the influence of model,friction factor,magnitude and nodal plane selection of aftershock on stress calculation results has been analyzed.The preliminary study suggests that model,friction factor affect little to Coulomb stress which mainly depend on magnitude and nodal plane of aftershocks,and specially strong dependence if using enough aftershocks numbers and even bigger magnitude.In order to further discuss the influence of nodal plane section on results,histograms of Coulomb stress,shear stress and normal stress changes on two nodal planes were made,respectively.The conclusion that the nodal plane selection has certain influence on normal stress and weak influence on Coulomb stress and shear stress can be drawn.
Based on four seismic source variable slipping models published,coseismic Coulomb stress changes produced by both Mw7.3 foreshock and M_w9.0 mainshock were calculate.Using both Harvard Global CMT and Japan F-net catalogs with effective friction factor give variable value,the stress triggering and effect on aftershocks imposed by mainshock are carried out and researched.Meanwhile,the spatial interrelationship between Coulomb stress change and aftershock distribution is preliminarily analyzed.The study illustrates that foreshock trigger subsequent mainshock,on which produce 0.404 bar of normal stress,0.282 bar of shear stress and as much as0.517 bar of coseimic Coulomb stress change.Especially,Coulomb stress change reaches more than five times of trigger threshold value of 0.1 bar,belonging to typical seismic stress triggering not inducing case.The mainshock has a obviously triggering on subsequent aftershocks,of which triggering percentage ranges from 57% to 75%.In other words,the numerous aftershocks fall into certain red region of stress loaded.Furthermore,the influence of model,friction factor,magnitude and nodal plane selection of aftershock on stress calculation results has been analyzed.The preliminary study suggests that model,friction factor affect little to Coulomb stress which mainly depend on magnitude and nodal plane of aftershocks,and specially strong dependence if using enough aftershocks numbers and even bigger magnitude.In order to further discuss the influence of nodal plane section on results,histograms of Coulomb stress,shear stress and normal stress changes on two nodal planes were made,respectively.The conclusion that the nodal plane selection has certain influence on normal stress and weak influence on Coulomb stress and shear stress can be drawn.
引文
1 Harris R A.Introduction to special section:Stress triggers,stress shadow and implications for seismic hazard.Journal of Geophysical Research,1998;103:24347-24358
2 Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999;402(6762):605-609
3 Scholz C H.The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990:439
4 King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994;84(3):935-953
5马瑾,马胜利,刘力强,等.断层相互作用型式的实验研究.自然科学进展,2002;12(5):503-508Ma Jin,Ma Shengli,Liu Liqiang,et al.Experimental study on patterns of fault interaction.Progress in Natural Science,2002,12(5):503-508
6万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震应力触发研究.地震学报,2002;24(5):533-551Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.The study on seismic stress triggering.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002;24(5):533-551
7沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究.地球物理学报,2003;46(6):786-795Shen Zhengkang,Wan Yongge,Gan Weijun,et al.Viscoelastic triggering among large earthquake along the east Kunlun fault system.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2003;46(6):786-795
8 Wang Y G,Shen Z K.Static Coulomb stress changes on faults caused by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan,China earthquake.Tectonophysics,2010;491:1-4,105-118
9石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论---以汶川地震为例.地球物理学报,2010;53(1):102-110Shi Yaolin,Cao Jianling.Some aspects in static stress change calculation-Case study on Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010;53(1):102-110
10 Chen Y T,Yang Z X,Zhang Y,et al.A brief talk on the 20 April2013 Lushan Mw6.7 earthquake.ACA Seismologica Sinica,2013;35(3):285-295
11单斌,熊熊,郑勇,等.2013年芦山地震导致的周边断层应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,2013;32:(6):1002-1009Shan Bin,Xiong Xiong,Zheng Yong,et al.Stress changes on major faults caused by 2013 Lushan earthquake,and its relationship with 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China:Earth Sciences,2013;32(6):1002-1009
12 Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failture on the North Anatolian faults since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering.Geophysical Journal International,1997;128:594-604
13 Nalbant S S,Huberta A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquake in northwest Turkey and the north Aegean Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research,1998;103:24469-24486
14 Papadimitriou E E,Karakostas V G,Papazachos B C.Rupture zone in the area of the 1708-1799 Izmit(NW Turkey)large earthquake(Mw7.4)and stress changes caused by its generation.Journal of Seismology,2001;(5):269-276
15万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.几次复杂地震中不同破裂时间之间的“应力触发”问题.地震学报,2000;22(6):568-575Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.‘Stress triggering’between different rupture events in several earthquakes.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2000;22(6):568-575
16万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验.地震学报,2002;24(3):302-316Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.Global test of seismic static stress triggering mode.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002;24(3):302-316
17韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁,等.南北地震带北部5次(1561~1920年)M≥7级地震触发关系研究.地球物理学报,2008;51(6):1776-1784Han Zhujun,Dong Shaopeng,Xie Furen,et al.Earthquake triggering by static stress:The 5 major earthquake with M≥7(1561-1920)in the northern section of south-north seismic zone,China.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008;51(6):1776-1784
18万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响.地震学报,2009;31(2):128-139Wan Yongge,Shen Zhengkang,Sheng Shuzhong,et al.The influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on surrounding faults.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009;31(2):128-139
19万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释.地球物理学报,2010;53(2):280-289Wan Yongge,Shen Zhengkang,Sheng Shuzhong,et al.The mechanical effects of the 2008 Ms7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on the neighboring faults and its tectonic origin of normal faulting mechanism.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010;53(2):280-289
20朱航,闻学泽.1973-1976年四川松潘强震序列的应力触发过程.地球物理学报,2009;52(4):994-1003Zhu Hang,Wen Xueze.Stress triggering process of the 1973 to1976 Songpan,Sichuan,sequence of strong earthquakes.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009;52(4):994-1003
21盛书中,万永革,程佳,等.2011年日本9.0级大地震的应力触发作用初步研究.地震地质,2012;34(2):325-337Sheng Shuzhong,Wan Yongge,Chen Jia,et al.Primary research on the Coulomb stress triggering of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake.Seismology and Geology,2012;34(2):325-337
22解朝娣,朱元清,Lei Xinglin.Ms8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响.中国科学:地球科学,2010;40(6):688-698Xie Chaodi,Zhu Yuanqing,Lei Xinglin.Pattern of stress change and its effect on seismicity rate caused by Ms8.0 earthquake.Science China:Earth Sciences,2010;40(6):688-698
23 Ruff L,Kanamori H.Seismicity and the subduction process.Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,1980;23:240-252
24 Stern R J.Subduction zones.Reviews of Geophysics,2002;40:1012-1038
25 Monastersky R.Giant shock rattles ideas about quake behavior.Nature,2011;471:274
26 Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1992;82(2):1018-1040
27周明宇,单斌,熊熊.静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析.大地测量与地球动力学,2008;28(5):22-26Zhou Mingyu,Shan Bin,Xiong Xiong.Parameters sensitivity analysis of Coulomb stress change in static stress triggering.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2008;28(5):22-26
28 Toda S,Lin J,Stein R S.Using the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure.Earth Planets Space,2011;63:725-730
29徐锡伟,于贵华,马文涛,等.昆仑山地震(Mw7.8)破裂行为、变形局部化特征及其构造内涵讨论.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008;38(7):785-796Xu Xiwei,Yu Guihua,Ma Wentao,et al.Rupture behavior and deformation localization of the Kunlunshan earthquake(Mw7.8)and their tectonic implications.Science China:Earth Sciences,2008;38(7):785-796
30 Shao G F,Li X Y,Ji C,et al.Focal mechanism and slip history of the 2011 Mw9.1 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake,constrained with teleseismic body and surface waves.Earth Planets Space,2011;63:559-564
31 Hayes G P.Rapid source characterization of the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacificcoast of Tohoku Earthquake.Earth Planets Space 2011;63:529-534
32 Ide S,Baltay A,Beroza G C.Shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deeprupture in the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohokuoki earthquake.Science,2011;332:1426-1429
2 Stein R S.The role of stress transfer in earthquake occurrence.Nature,1999;402(6762):605-609
3 Scholz C H.The mechanics of earthquakes and faulting.Cambridge:Cambridge University Press,1990:439
4 King G C P,Stein R S,Lin J.Static stress changes and the triggering of earthquakes.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1994;84(3):935-953
5马瑾,马胜利,刘力强,等.断层相互作用型式的实验研究.自然科学进展,2002;12(5):503-508Ma Jin,Ma Shengli,Liu Liqiang,et al.Experimental study on patterns of fault interaction.Progress in Natural Science,2002,12(5):503-508
6万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震应力触发研究.地震学报,2002;24(5):533-551Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.The study on seismic stress triggering.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002;24(5):533-551
7沈正康,万永革,甘卫军,等.东昆仑活动断裂带大地震之间的黏弹性应力触发研究.地球物理学报,2003;46(6):786-795Shen Zhengkang,Wan Yongge,Gan Weijun,et al.Viscoelastic triggering among large earthquake along the east Kunlun fault system.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2003;46(6):786-795
8 Wang Y G,Shen Z K.Static Coulomb stress changes on faults caused by the 2008 Mw7.9 Wenchuan,China earthquake.Tectonophysics,2010;491:1-4,105-118
9石耀霖,曹建玲.库仑应力计算及应用过程中若干问题的讨论---以汶川地震为例.地球物理学报,2010;53(1):102-110Shi Yaolin,Cao Jianling.Some aspects in static stress change calculation-Case study on Wenchuan earthquake.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010;53(1):102-110
10 Chen Y T,Yang Z X,Zhang Y,et al.A brief talk on the 20 April2013 Lushan Mw6.7 earthquake.ACA Seismologica Sinica,2013;35(3):285-295
11单斌,熊熊,郑勇,等.2013年芦山地震导致的周边断层应力变化及其与2008年汶川地震的关系.中国科学:地球科学,2013;32:(6):1002-1009Shan Bin,Xiong Xiong,Zheng Yong,et al.Stress changes on major faults caused by 2013 Lushan earthquake,and its relationship with 2008 Wenchuan earthquake.Science China:Earth Sciences,2013;32(6):1002-1009
12 Stein R S,Barka A A,Dieterich J H.Progressive failture on the North Anatolian faults since 1939 by earthquake stress triggering.Geophysical Journal International,1997;128:594-604
13 Nalbant S S,Huberta A,King G C P.Stress coupling between earthquake in northwest Turkey and the north Aegean Sea.Journal of Geophysical Research,1998;103:24469-24486
14 Papadimitriou E E,Karakostas V G,Papazachos B C.Rupture zone in the area of the 1708-1799 Izmit(NW Turkey)large earthquake(Mw7.4)and stress changes caused by its generation.Journal of Seismology,2001;(5):269-276
15万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.几次复杂地震中不同破裂时间之间的“应力触发”问题.地震学报,2000;22(6):568-575Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.‘Stress triggering’between different rupture events in several earthquakes.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2000;22(6):568-575
16万永革,吴忠良,周公威,等.地震静态应力触发模型的全球检验.地震学报,2002;24(3):302-316Wan Yongge,Wu Zhongliang,Zhou Gongwei,et al.Global test of seismic static stress triggering mode.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2002;24(3):302-316
17韩竹军,董绍鹏,谢富仁,等.南北地震带北部5次(1561~1920年)M≥7级地震触发关系研究.地球物理学报,2008;51(6):1776-1784Han Zhujun,Dong Shaopeng,Xie Furen,et al.Earthquake triggering by static stress:The 5 major earthquake with M≥7(1561-1920)in the northern section of south-north seismic zone,China.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2008;51(6):1776-1784
18万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年汶川大地震对周围断层的影响.地震学报,2009;31(2):128-139Wan Yongge,Shen Zhengkang,Sheng Shuzhong,et al.The influence of 2008 Wenchuan earthquake on surrounding faults.Acta Seismologica Sinica,2009;31(2):128-139
19万永革,沈正康,盛书中,等.2008年新疆于田7.3级地震对周围断层的影响及其正断层机制的区域构造解释.地球物理学报,2010;53(2):280-289Wan Yongge,Shen Zhengkang,Sheng Shuzhong,et al.The mechanical effects of the 2008 Ms7.3 Yutian,Xinjiang earthquake on the neighboring faults and its tectonic origin of normal faulting mechanism.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010;53(2):280-289
20朱航,闻学泽.1973-1976年四川松潘强震序列的应力触发过程.地球物理学报,2009;52(4):994-1003Zhu Hang,Wen Xueze.Stress triggering process of the 1973 to1976 Songpan,Sichuan,sequence of strong earthquakes.Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2009;52(4):994-1003
21盛书中,万永革,程佳,等.2011年日本9.0级大地震的应力触发作用初步研究.地震地质,2012;34(2):325-337Sheng Shuzhong,Wan Yongge,Chen Jia,et al.Primary research on the Coulomb stress triggering of the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohoku earthquake.Seismology and Geology,2012;34(2):325-337
22解朝娣,朱元清,Lei Xinglin.Ms8.0汶川地震产生的应力变化空间分布及其对地震活动性的影响.中国科学:地球科学,2010;40(6):688-698Xie Chaodi,Zhu Yuanqing,Lei Xinglin.Pattern of stress change and its effect on seismicity rate caused by Ms8.0 earthquake.Science China:Earth Sciences,2010;40(6):688-698
23 Ruff L,Kanamori H.Seismicity and the subduction process.Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors,1980;23:240-252
24 Stern R J.Subduction zones.Reviews of Geophysics,2002;40:1012-1038
25 Monastersky R.Giant shock rattles ideas about quake behavior.Nature,2011;471:274
26 Okada Y.Internal deformation due to shear and tensile faults in a half space.Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America,1992;82(2):1018-1040
27周明宇,单斌,熊熊.静态应力触发中影响库仑应力变化的参数敏感性分析.大地测量与地球动力学,2008;28(5):22-26Zhou Mingyu,Shan Bin,Xiong Xiong.Parameters sensitivity analysis of Coulomb stress change in static stress triggering.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2008;28(5):22-26
28 Toda S,Lin J,Stein R S.Using the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake to test the Coulomb stress triggering hypothesis and to calculate faults brought closer to failure.Earth Planets Space,2011;63:725-730
29徐锡伟,于贵华,马文涛,等.昆仑山地震(Mw7.8)破裂行为、变形局部化特征及其构造内涵讨论.中国科学D辑:地球科学,2008;38(7):785-796Xu Xiwei,Yu Guihua,Ma Wentao,et al.Rupture behavior and deformation localization of the Kunlunshan earthquake(Mw7.8)and their tectonic implications.Science China:Earth Sciences,2008;38(7):785-796
30 Shao G F,Li X Y,Ji C,et al.Focal mechanism and slip history of the 2011 Mw9.1 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake,constrained with teleseismic body and surface waves.Earth Planets Space,2011;63:559-564
31 Hayes G P.Rapid source characterization of the 2011 Mw9.0 off the Pacificcoast of Tohoku Earthquake.Earth Planets Space 2011;63:529-534
32 Ide S,Baltay A,Beroza G C.Shallow dynamic overshoot and energetic deeprupture in the 2011 Mw9.0 Tohokuoki earthquake.Science,2011;332:1426-1429