亚美尼亚的人口发展趋势及其影响
摘要
亚美尼亚周边地缘政治环境非常复杂,苏联解体以来,该国本就较小的人口体量在不利的政治、经济和社会环境的影响下呈现加速萎缩的趋势。文章对亚美尼亚人口的发展趋势、形成原因、政府对策及可能的影响作了系统分析,指出由于传统家庭观念的变化和难以遏制的对外移民在可见的将来亚美尼亚无法扭转人口下降的趋势。
引文
(1)王鸣野:《“中间地带”的博弈与困境》,北京:科学出版社,2017年。
(2)[美]泽夫·卡茨:《苏联主要民族手册》,北京:人民出版社,1982年,第198页。
(3)关健斌:《亚美尼亚怪现象:海外移民数量多过国内人口》,2001年8月14日,http://news.sohu.com/87/77/news146247787.shtml。
(4)侯艾君:《车臣始末》第1版,北京:世界知识出版社,2005年,第275页。
(5)http://am.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ddgk/zwrenkou/201609/20160901399286.shtml.
(6)Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?July 11,2017,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/84326.
(7)Data from World Bank,Sep.18,2017,https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Население_Армении.
(8)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain,March 25,2011,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63157.
(9)Mikhail Diloyan,Emigration Emerges as a Concern in Armenia,April 10,2000,http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav041100.shtml.
(10)Ken Stier,Study Highlights Inefficiencies and Evils of Armenian Emigration,April 15,2002,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav041602.shtml.
(11)Haroutiun Khachatrian,Unfavorable Demographic Trends Cloud Armenia's Economic Prospects—Study,March 6,2005,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav030705.shtml.
(12)②③ Haroutiun Khachatrian,Unfavorable Demographic Trends Cloud Armenia's Economic Prospects—Study.
(13)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Are Selective Abotions Behind Birth Ratio Imbalance?July 6,2011,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63812.
(14)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Demographic Imbalance Prompts Move to Ban Fetus Sex Detection,July 22,2013,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67281.
(15)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain.
(16)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Labor Migration Program Causing Yerevan-Moscow Friction,October 23,2012,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66092.
(17)②③ Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russia’s Offer of Easy Citizenship Sparks Concerns,April 30,2014,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/6832.
(18)侯艾君:《车臣始末》第1版,第271页。
(19)Bradley Jardine,With New Railway,Turkey Seeks to Isolate Armenia and Integrate Azerbaijan,https://eurasianet.org/with-new-railway-turkey-seeks-to-isolate-armenia-and-integrate-azerbaijan.
(20)http://asbarez.com/44311/putin-ends-visit-to-azerbaijan/.
(21)А.Аймермахера,Национальная История Советского и Постсоветского Государствах,М,1999,С.98.
(22)Trend,Vladimir Putin to Visit Azerbaijan,https://www.azernews.az/nation/137224.html.
(23)Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(24)④⑤ Gayane Abrahamyan,Armenia:Military Planners Confront Conscript Shortfall,Mull an End to College Exemption,July 29,2009,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav073009a.shtml.
(25)Mikhail Diloyan,Emigration Emerges as a Concern in Armenia.
(26)⑤⑦⑧ Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(27)④ Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain.
(28)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Labor Migration Program Causing Yerevan-Moscow Friction.
(29)③ Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(30)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia Considers Ban on Gender-Specific Abortions.
(31)② Ken Stier,Study Highlights Inefficiencies and Evils of Armenian Emigration.
(32)Marianna Grigoryan:Armenia:Russia’s Offer of Easy Citizenship Sparks Concerns.
(2)[美]泽夫·卡茨:《苏联主要民族手册》,北京:人民出版社,1982年,第198页。
(3)关健斌:《亚美尼亚怪现象:海外移民数量多过国内人口》,2001年8月14日,http://news.sohu.com/87/77/news146247787.shtml。
(4)侯艾君:《车臣始末》第1版,北京:世界知识出版社,2005年,第275页。
(5)http://am.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ddgk/zwrenkou/201609/20160901399286.shtml.
(6)Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?July 11,2017,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/84326.
(7)Data from World Bank,Sep.18,2017,https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Население_Армении.
(8)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain,March 25,2011,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63157.
(9)Mikhail Diloyan,Emigration Emerges as a Concern in Armenia,April 10,2000,http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav041100.shtml.
(10)Ken Stier,Study Highlights Inefficiencies and Evils of Armenian Emigration,April 15,2002,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav041602.shtml.
(11)Haroutiun Khachatrian,Unfavorable Demographic Trends Cloud Armenia's Economic Prospects—Study,March 6,2005,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/business/articles/eav030705.shtml.
(12)②③ Haroutiun Khachatrian,Unfavorable Demographic Trends Cloud Armenia's Economic Prospects—Study.
(13)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Are Selective Abotions Behind Birth Ratio Imbalance?July 6,2011,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/63812.
(14)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Demographic Imbalance Prompts Move to Ban Fetus Sex Detection,July 22,2013,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/67281.
(15)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain.
(16)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Labor Migration Program Causing Yerevan-Moscow Friction,October 23,2012,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66092.
(17)②③ Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russia’s Offer of Easy Citizenship Sparks Concerns,April 30,2014,http://www.eurasianet.org/node/6832.
(18)侯艾君:《车臣始末》第1版,第271页。
(19)Bradley Jardine,With New Railway,Turkey Seeks to Isolate Armenia and Integrate Azerbaijan,https://eurasianet.org/with-new-railway-turkey-seeks-to-isolate-armenia-and-integrate-azerbaijan.
(20)http://asbarez.com/44311/putin-ends-visit-to-azerbaijan/.
(21)А.Аймермахера,Национальная История Советского и Постсоветского Государствах,М,1999,С.98.
(22)Trend,Vladimir Putin to Visit Azerbaijan,https://www.azernews.az/nation/137224.html.
(23)Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(24)④⑤ Gayane Abrahamyan,Armenia:Military Planners Confront Conscript Shortfall,Mull an End to College Exemption,July 29,2009,http://www.eurasianet.org/departments/insightb/articles/eav073009a.shtml.
(25)Mikhail Diloyan,Emigration Emerges as a Concern in Armenia.
(26)⑤⑦⑧ Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(27)④ Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Russian Guest Worker Program Highlights Population Drain.
(28)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia:Labor Migration Program Causing Yerevan-Moscow Friction.
(29)③ Joshua Kucera,Armenia:Can the Government Reverse Demographic Decline?
(30)Marianna Grigoryan,Armenia Considers Ban on Gender-Specific Abortions.
(31)② Ken Stier,Study Highlights Inefficiencies and Evils of Armenian Emigration.
(32)Marianna Grigoryan:Armenia:Russia’s Offer of Easy Citizenship Sparks Concerns.