中国城镇化的经济增长与收敛双重效应——基于2000与2010年中国1968个县份空间数据检验
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摘要
城镇化具有区域增长与收敛的双重效应是一个重要的经验假设,但尚未得到全面检验。本文以2000年与2010年1968个县市空间数据,首次应用普通最小二乘(OLS)回归模型检验了城镇化的双重效应,并用加权地理回归(GWR)模型测算了城镇化水平及城镇化进程对县域人均GDP增长及收敛速度的影响。研究表明,城镇化水平及城镇化进程对我国县域人均GDP增长及收敛性同时具有积极的稳健性作用。计量结果显示,"平均"意义上,城镇化提高了人均GDP的1. 9369%收敛速度,同时,在空间异性影响下,城镇化水平和城镇化进程的人均GDP增长弹性分别为0. 0418和0. 4522。进一步的可视化后发现,城镇化更高地促进西部县域收敛速度,其对西部的增长效应也高于东部与中部。这意味着在"一路一带"背景下,有力推进我国三纵两横的城镇化空间布局,尤其要加快推进西部地区城镇化,将更有效促进我国区域协调发展。
Urbanization has the dual effect of regional growth and convergence,which is an important theoretical hypothesis,but it has been comprehensively tested. Based on the spatial data of 1968 counties in 2000 and 2010,this paper first applied the ordinal least squares( OLS) regression model to verify the dual effect of urbanization,and calculated the influence of urbanization level and urbanization process on the growth and convergence rate of per capita GDP in county area by weighted geographic regression( GWR) model. The research shows that urbanization level and urbanization process have positive effects on the growth and convergence of per capita GDP in China. The results showed that,on the average,urbanization increased the rate of 1. 9369% convergence of per capita GDP. At the same time,under the influence of spatial heterosexual,the per capita GDP growth elasticity of urbanization level and urbanization process was 0. 0418 and 0. 4522 respectively. After further visualization,we find that urbanization speeds up the speed of convergence in western counties,and the growth rate of per capita GDP is higher in the West than in the eastern and central parts. This means that in the context of the"one road",it will push forward the spatial layout of the urbanization of the three longitudinal and two horizontal sections,especially to accelerate the urbanization of the western region,which will more effectively promote the coordinated development of China's region.
Urbanization has the dual effect of regional growth and convergence,which is an important theoretical hypothesis,but it has been comprehensively tested. Based on the spatial data of 1968 counties in 2000 and 2010,this paper first applied the ordinal least squares( OLS) regression model to verify the dual effect of urbanization,and calculated the influence of urbanization level and urbanization process on the growth and convergence rate of per capita GDP in county area by weighted geographic regression( GWR) model. The research shows that urbanization level and urbanization process have positive effects on the growth and convergence of per capita GDP in China. The results showed that,on the average,urbanization increased the rate of 1. 9369% convergence of per capita GDP. At the same time,under the influence of spatial heterosexual,the per capita GDP growth elasticity of urbanization level and urbanization process was 0. 0418 and 0. 4522 respectively. After further visualization,we find that urbanization speeds up the speed of convergence in western counties,and the growth rate of per capita GDP is higher in the West than in the eastern and central parts. This means that in the context of the"one road",it will push forward the spatial layout of the urbanization of the three longitudinal and two horizontal sections,especially to accelerate the urbanization of the western region,which will more effectively promote the coordinated development of China's region.
引文
[1]万广华,蔡昉.中国的城市化道路与发展战略:理论探讨和实证分析[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2012.
[2]刘生龙,王亚华,胡鞍钢.西部大开发成效与中国区域经济收敛[J].经济研究,2009(9):94-105.
[3]许召元,李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006(7):106-116.
[4]张晓旭,冯宗宪.中国人均GDP的空间相关与地区收敛:1978-2003[J].经济学(季刊),2008,7(2):18-33.
[5]倪鹏飞,杨继瑞,李超,董杨.中国城市化的结构效应与发展转型[J].经济研究,2014(7):189-192.
[6]吴福象,刘志彪.城市化群落驱动经济增长的机制研究[J].经济研究,2008(11):126-136.
[7]中国宏观经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.中国可持续增长的机制:证据、理论与政策[J].经济研究,2008(10):13-25.
[8]万广华.经济发展与收入不均等:方法和证据[M].上海:三联书店,2006.
[9]万广华.2030年:中国城镇化率达到80%[J].国际经济评论,2011(6):99-111.
[10]李克强.缩小城乡区域差距需推进新型城镇化[N].新京报,2015-06-28.
[11]沈坤荣,蒋锐.中国城市化对经济增长影响机制的实证研究[J].统计研究,2007(6):9-15.
[12]朱孔来,李静静,乐菲菲.中国城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2011(9):80-87.
[13]约翰·奎格利.城市化、集聚效应和经济发展[M].比较(第47辑).北京:中信出版社,2010:16.
[14]万广华.城市化与中国的减贫和不平等[M].比较,2008(36):160-172.
[15]杨志海,刘雪芬,王雅鹏.县域城镇化能缩小城乡收入差距吗?---基于1523个县(市)面板数据的实证检验[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):42-48.
[16]陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004(6):50-58.
[17]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):17-26.
[18]万广华.城镇化与不均等:分析方法和中国案例[J].经济研究,2013(5):73-86.
[19]Christiaensen L,and Todo Y.Poverty reduction during the rural-urban transformation-The role of the missing middle[J].World Development,2014,63:43-58.
[20]Christiaensen L,Weerdt J D,Kanbur R.Urbanization and poverty reduction:The role of rural diversification and secondary towns[J].Agricultural Economics,2013,44:435-447.
[21]Christiaensen L,Kanbur R.Secondary towns and poverty reduction refocusing the urbanization agenda[J].Annual Review of Resource Economics,2017,9:405-419.
[22]单德朋,郑长德,王英.贫困乡城转移、城市化模式选择对异质性减贫效应的影响[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2015(9):81-92.
[23]曹裕,陈晓红,马跃如.城市化、城乡收入差距与经济增长---基于我国省级面板数据的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010(3):29-36.
[24]沈凌,田国强.贫富差别、城市化与经济增长---一个基于需求因素的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2009(1):17-29.
[25]钱淑芳.我国城市化对城乡收入差距与经济增长的影响研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(5):87-94.
[26]罗知,万广华,张勋,李敬.兼顾公平与效率的城镇化:理论模型与中国实证[J].经济研究,2018(7):89-105.
[27]Barro R J,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence across states and regions[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1991,1:107-182.
[28]Barro R J,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(2):223-251.
[29]Danny T.Quah.Empirics for economic growth and convergence[J].European Economic Review,1996,40(6):1353-1375.
[30]Danny T.Quah,Twin Peaks.Growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106(437):1045-1055.
[31]Berthelemy J C,Varoudakis A.Economic growth,convergence clubs,and the role of financial development[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1996,48(2):300-328.
[32]Ling Yin,George K.Zestos and leo michelis.Economic convergence in the European Union[J].Journal of Economic Integration,2003,18(1):188-213.
[33]Somesh K.Mathur.Economic growth&conditional convergence:Its speed for selected regions for 1961-2001[J].Indian Economic Review,2005,40(2):185-208.
[34]蔡昉,都阳.中国经济增长的趋同与差异---对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000(10):30-37.
[35]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6):40-51.
[36]覃成林,刘迎霞,李超.空间外溢与区域经济增长趋同---基于长江三角洲的案例分析[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):76-94.
[37]潘文卿.中国区域经济差异与收敛[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):72-84.
[38]陈芳,龙志和.中国县域经济差距的收敛性研究---基于动态面板数据的GMM方法[J].中国科技论坛,2011(4):140-144.
[39]许洪范.县域经济增长差异及其收敛性研究[M].长沙:湖南人民出版社,2011.
[40]张远军.城市化与中国省际经济增长:1987~2012---基于贸易开放的视角[J].金融研究,2014(7):49-62.
[41]吕健.中国城市化水平的空间效应与地区收敛分析:1978-2009年[J].经济管理,2011(9):32-44.
[42]World Bank.World development report 2009:Reshaping economic geography[M].Washington DC,World Bank,2008.
[43]Lesage J P.A Spatial econometric examination of China’s economic growth[J].Geographic Information Sciences,1999,5(2):143-153.
[44]Tibshirani R J,Hastie T J.Local likelihood estimation[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1987,82:559-567.
[45]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression:The analysis of spatially varying relationships[M].John Wiley&Sons,Chichester,2002.
[46]Le Sage JP.A family of geographically weighted regression models in advances in spatial Econometrics[M].Edited by Luc Anselin,Raymond J.G.Florax,Sergio J.Rey,Berlin:SpringerVerlag,2004:241-264.
(1)西部分别是四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古;中部地区分别是山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南。
[2]刘生龙,王亚华,胡鞍钢.西部大开发成效与中国区域经济收敛[J].经济研究,2009(9):94-105.
[3]许召元,李善同.近年来中国地区差距的变化趋势[J].经济研究,2006(7):106-116.
[4]张晓旭,冯宗宪.中国人均GDP的空间相关与地区收敛:1978-2003[J].经济学(季刊),2008,7(2):18-33.
[5]倪鹏飞,杨继瑞,李超,董杨.中国城市化的结构效应与发展转型[J].经济研究,2014(7):189-192.
[6]吴福象,刘志彪.城市化群落驱动经济增长的机制研究[J].经济研究,2008(11):126-136.
[7]中国宏观经济增长与宏观稳定课题组.中国可持续增长的机制:证据、理论与政策[J].经济研究,2008(10):13-25.
[8]万广华.经济发展与收入不均等:方法和证据[M].上海:三联书店,2006.
[9]万广华.2030年:中国城镇化率达到80%[J].国际经济评论,2011(6):99-111.
[10]李克强.缩小城乡区域差距需推进新型城镇化[N].新京报,2015-06-28.
[11]沈坤荣,蒋锐.中国城市化对经济增长影响机制的实证研究[J].统计研究,2007(6):9-15.
[12]朱孔来,李静静,乐菲菲.中国城镇化进程与经济增长关系的实证研究[J].统计研究,2011(9):80-87.
[13]约翰·奎格利.城市化、集聚效应和经济发展[M].比较(第47辑).北京:中信出版社,2010:16.
[14]万广华.城市化与中国的减贫和不平等[M].比较,2008(36):160-172.
[15]杨志海,刘雪芬,王雅鹏.县域城镇化能缩小城乡收入差距吗?---基于1523个县(市)面板数据的实证检验[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2013(4):42-48.
[16]陆铭,陈钊.城市化、城市倾向的经济政策与城乡收入差距[J].经济研究,2004(6):50-58.
[17]万广华,陆铭,陈钊.全球化与地区间收入差距:来自中国的证据[J].中国社会科学,2005(3):17-26.
[18]万广华.城镇化与不均等:分析方法和中国案例[J].经济研究,2013(5):73-86.
[19]Christiaensen L,and Todo Y.Poverty reduction during the rural-urban transformation-The role of the missing middle[J].World Development,2014,63:43-58.
[20]Christiaensen L,Weerdt J D,Kanbur R.Urbanization and poverty reduction:The role of rural diversification and secondary towns[J].Agricultural Economics,2013,44:435-447.
[21]Christiaensen L,Kanbur R.Secondary towns and poverty reduction refocusing the urbanization agenda[J].Annual Review of Resource Economics,2017,9:405-419.
[22]单德朋,郑长德,王英.贫困乡城转移、城市化模式选择对异质性减贫效应的影响[J].中国人口、资源与环境,2015(9):81-92.
[23]曹裕,陈晓红,马跃如.城市化、城乡收入差距与经济增长---基于我国省级面板数据的实证研究[J].统计研究,2010(3):29-36.
[24]沈凌,田国强.贫富差别、城市化与经济增长---一个基于需求因素的经济学分析[J].经济研究,2009(1):17-29.
[25]钱淑芳.我国城市化对城乡收入差距与经济增长的影响研究[J].工业技术经济,2015(5):87-94.
[26]罗知,万广华,张勋,李敬.兼顾公平与效率的城镇化:理论模型与中国实证[J].经济研究,2018(7):89-105.
[27]Barro R J,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence across states and regions[J].Brookings Papers on Economic Activity,1991,1:107-182.
[28]Barro R J,Sala-i-Martin X.Convergence[J].Journal of Political Economy,1992,100(2):223-251.
[29]Danny T.Quah.Empirics for economic growth and convergence[J].European Economic Review,1996,40(6):1353-1375.
[30]Danny T.Quah,Twin Peaks.Growth and convergence in models of distribution dynamics[J].The Economic Journal,1996,106(437):1045-1055.
[31]Berthelemy J C,Varoudakis A.Economic growth,convergence clubs,and the role of financial development[J].Oxford Economic Papers,1996,48(2):300-328.
[32]Ling Yin,George K.Zestos and leo michelis.Economic convergence in the European Union[J].Journal of Economic Integration,2003,18(1):188-213.
[33]Somesh K.Mathur.Economic growth&conditional convergence:Its speed for selected regions for 1961-2001[J].Indian Economic Review,2005,40(2):185-208.
[34]蔡昉,都阳.中国经济增长的趋同与差异---对西部开发战略的启示[J].经济研究,2000(10):30-37.
[35]周亚虹,朱保华,刘俐含.中国经济收敛速度的估计[J].经济研究,2009(6):40-51.
[36]覃成林,刘迎霞,李超.空间外溢与区域经济增长趋同---基于长江三角洲的案例分析[J].中国社会科学,2012(5):76-94.
[37]潘文卿.中国区域经济差异与收敛[J].中国社会科学,2010(1):72-84.
[38]陈芳,龙志和.中国县域经济差距的收敛性研究---基于动态面板数据的GMM方法[J].中国科技论坛,2011(4):140-144.
[39]许洪范.县域经济增长差异及其收敛性研究[M].长沙:湖南人民出版社,2011.
[40]张远军.城市化与中国省际经济增长:1987~2012---基于贸易开放的视角[J].金融研究,2014(7):49-62.
[41]吕健.中国城市化水平的空间效应与地区收敛分析:1978-2009年[J].经济管理,2011(9):32-44.
[42]World Bank.World development report 2009:Reshaping economic geography[M].Washington DC,World Bank,2008.
[43]Lesage J P.A Spatial econometric examination of China’s economic growth[J].Geographic Information Sciences,1999,5(2):143-153.
[44]Tibshirani R J,Hastie T J.Local likelihood estimation[J].Journal of the American Statistical Association,1987,82:559-567.
[45]Fotheringham A S,Brunsdon C,Charlton M.Geographically weighted regression:The analysis of spatially varying relationships[M].John Wiley&Sons,Chichester,2002.
[46]Le Sage JP.A family of geographically weighted regression models in advances in spatial Econometrics[M].Edited by Luc Anselin,Raymond J.G.Florax,Sergio J.Rey,Berlin:SpringerVerlag,2004:241-264.
(1)西部分别是四川、重庆、贵州、云南、西藏、陕西、甘肃、青海、宁夏、新疆、广西、内蒙古;中部地区分别是山西、吉林、黑龙江、安徽、江西、河南、湖北、湖南;东部地区包括北京、天津、河北、辽宁、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、山东、广东和海南。