体系压力、安全认知与东盟地区安全治理机制变迁
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摘要
自1967年成立后,东盟角色逐渐由地区安全边缘者向地区安全治理主导者转变。随着历史的演进,东盟面临的体系压力从美苏安全竞争延续、美中在越南战争博弈和英美在东南亚地区收缩转变为美国东南亚地区战略发生变化、日印俄深度介入地区同时美国挑战导致中美竞争加剧。在此基础上,东盟对安全威胁来源的认知、对安全目标的认知、对实现安全目标手段的认知发生变化,导致不同时期的东盟地区安全治理机制呈现出不同的特征和样态。换言之,体系压力对东盟地区安全治理机制具有明显驱动作用,体系压力通过东盟安全认知作用导致东盟地区安全治理机制变迁。最终,通过四个阶段东盟地区安全治理机制变迁逻辑,本文核心研究假设得到验证。
引文
[1]约翰·米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2014.
[2]陈弈平.依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2006.
[3]Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003.
[4]Amitav Acharya.Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia:ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order[M].London and New York:Routledge,2001.
[5]Donald McCLOUD.United States Policies toward regional organizations in Southesat Asia[J].World Affairs,1970,133(2).
[6]Kenneth Waltz.The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory[J].Interdisciplinary History,1988,18(4).
(1)在第二次世界大战之后,除缅甸外,东南亚地区主权争议和纠纷不断,例如老挝与泰国部分边界分歧、马来西亚与新加坡在“马来亚联邦”问题上的争议以及马来西亚与菲律宾在沙巴主权上的矛盾。
(2)“冲击—回应”模式就是面对西方冲击,中国积极回应的历史演进过程,这一模式构筑了中国近代历史发展的脉络和主旋律。
(3)参见:约翰·米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2014:9;Kenneth Waltz.The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory[J].Interdisciplinary History,1988,18(4):616.
(4)倪世雄:当代西方国际关系理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:374.
(5)陆武.试论美日韩体系对东北亚安全机制构建的影响[J].邢台学院学报,2004(1):50.
(6)事实上,2年前,即1966年,英国政府就决定在70年代中期之前将英国军事力量撤出苏伊士运河东部,美国在西方向的防务责任陡然增加。
(7)阿米塔·阿查亚.建构安全共同体:东盟与地区秩序[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2004:75.
(8)Thakur Phanit.Regional integration attempts in Southeast Asia :a study of ASEAN’s problems and progress[D].Pennsylvania:Pennsylvania State University,1980:32—33.
(9)Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003:72.
(10)The Asean Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) Bangkok[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on January 27,2016.http://asean.org/the-asean-declaration-bangkok-declaration-bangkok-8-august-1967/.
(11)KUALA LUMPUR DECLARATION[M/OL].Missouri on August 16,1985.http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17010/12/12_appendices.pdf.
(12)Adam Malik.Djakarta Conference and Asia’s Political Future[J].Pacific Community,1970,2(1):74.
(13)Donald McCLOUD.United States Policies toward regional organizations in Southesat Asia[J].World Affairs,1970,133(2):141.
(14)Regionalism in Southeast Asia[M].Jakarta:CSIS,1978.
(15)Sheldon W Simon.ASEAN’s Strategic Situation in the 1980s[J].Pacific Affairs,1987,60(1):89.
(16)张德广,杨文昌.跨越太平洋的握手——纪念尼克松访华40周年[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2012:131.
(17)田禾,周方冶.泰国[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:335.
(18)Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003:101.
(19)Aileen S P Baviera.China’s Relations with Southeast Asia:Political Security and Economic Interests[C].Philippines:Philippines University,2015:6.
(20)Amitav Acharya.Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia:ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order[M].London and New York:Routledge,2001:71.
(21)鲁道夫·C·塞韦里诺.东南亚共同体建设探源——来自东盟前任秘书长的洞见[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012:10.
(22)Sueo Sudo.The International Relations of Japan and South East Asia:Forging a New Regionalism[M].London and New York:Routledge,2002:20.
(23)Protocol Amending the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Secretariat (Term-of-Duty of the Secretary General) Kuala Lumpur[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on May 24,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-secretariat-basic-documents-protocol-amending-the-agreement-on-the-establishment-of-the-asean-secretariat-term-of-duty-of-the-secretary-general-kuala-lumpur-9-july-1985-2.
(24)INSTRUMENT OF ACCESSION TO THE TREATY OF AMITY AND COOPERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 16,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=instrument-of-accession-to-the-treaty-of-amity-and-cooperation-in-southeast-asia-5.
(25)值得注意的是,1991年冷战后面对大国,东盟也采用了平衡政策,一些东盟国家两面下注,在经济上依赖中国、在安全上依靠美国,从而最大限度地实现和维护东盟利益。与冷战后东盟奉行的大国平衡政策不同,1978—1991年期间东盟的平衡因素更多的是东盟为阻止地区霸权的存在,通过东盟地区安全治理机制对霸权行为进行平衡,进而维护东南亚地区安全秩序的和平与稳定,为东盟的发展创造更为有利的外部环境。
(26)陈弈平.依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2006:76—77.
(27)ShannonTow.Southeast Asia in the Sino-U.S.Strategic Balance[J].Contemporary Southeast Asia,2004,26(3):452—453.
(28)CHINA’S POTENTIAL MILITARY THREAT TO SOUTHEAST ASIA[M/OL].https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1170/MR1170.ch3.pdf.
(29)Eero Palmujoki.Regionalism and Globalism in Southeast Asia[M/OL].https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/bfm%3A978-0-230-50469-1%2F1.pdf.
(30)The World to Come:ASEAN’s Political and Economic Prospects in the New Century[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 27,2012,http://asean.org/?static_post=the-world-to-come-asean-s-political-and-economic-prospects-in-the-new-century.
(31)Agreement On The Temporary Use Of Part Of The Premises Of The ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta,5 November 1991[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on May 24,2012,http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-secretariat-basic-documents-agreement-on-the-temporary-use-of-the-premises-of-the-asean-secretariat-jakarta-5-november-1991-2.
(32)Donald J Trump.A New National Security Strategy for a New Era[M/OL].White House,Missouri on December 18,2017.https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/new-national-security-strategy-new-era/.
(33)Subhash Kapila.China is the Major Threat to Asian Security and Stability[M/OL].Missouri on July 17,2014.http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1566.
(34)Ian Tsung-Yen Chen and Alan Hao Yang.A harmonized Southeast Asia?Explanatory typologies of ASEAN countries’strategies to the rise of China[J].The Pacific Review,2013,26(3):273.
(35)Vibhanshu Shekhar.ASEAN’s Response to the Rise of China:Deploying a Hedging Strategy[J].China Report,2012(48),3:261—162.
(36)Cheng-Chwee Kuik,Nor Azizan Idris,and Abd Rahim Md Nor.The China Factor in the U.S.“Reengagement” With Southeast Asia:Drivers and Limits of Converged Hedging[J].Asian Politics & Policy,2012,4(3):338.
(37)DETERRING TERRORISM,DEVELOPING ASEAN AND STRENGTHENING LINKAGES WITH KEY PLAYERS ARE TOP PRIORITIES,SAYS INDONESIAN FOREIGN MINISTER[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on January 6,2003.http://asean.org/deterring-terrorism-developing-asean-and-strengthening-linkages-with-key-players-are-top-priorities-says-indonesian-foreign-minister/.
(38)ASEAN’S CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL EFFORTS IN COUNTER-TERRORISM[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 31,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-s-contribution-to-regional-efforts-in-counter-terrorism.
(39)DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II (BALI CONCORD II)[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 7,2003.http://asean.org/declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-bali-concord-ii-3/.
(40)Towards an Integrated East Asia Community[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 27,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=towards-an-integrated-east-asia-community.
(41)Media Release ASEAN Leaders Sign ASEAN Charter Singapore[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on November 20,2007.http://asean.org/media-release-asean-leaders-sign-asean-charter-singapore/.
(42)在东盟的呼吁和支持下,首届东盟—印度峰会、东盟—俄罗斯峰会、东盟—美国峰会分别于2002年11月、2005年12月、2013年10月召开。
(43)DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II (BALI CONCORD II)[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 7,2003.http://asean.org/declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-bali-concord-ii-3/.
(44)ASEAN Political-Security Community[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on June 2009.http://asean.org/asean-political-security-community/.
[2]陈弈平.依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2006.
[3]Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003.
[4]Amitav Acharya.Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia:ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order[M].London and New York:Routledge,2001.
[5]Donald McCLOUD.United States Policies toward regional organizations in Southesat Asia[J].World Affairs,1970,133(2).
[6]Kenneth Waltz.The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory[J].Interdisciplinary History,1988,18(4).
(1)在第二次世界大战之后,除缅甸外,东南亚地区主权争议和纠纷不断,例如老挝与泰国部分边界分歧、马来西亚与新加坡在“马来亚联邦”问题上的争议以及马来西亚与菲律宾在沙巴主权上的矛盾。
(2)“冲击—回应”模式就是面对西方冲击,中国积极回应的历史演进过程,这一模式构筑了中国近代历史发展的脉络和主旋律。
(3)参见:约翰·米尔斯海默.大国政治的悲剧[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2014:9;Kenneth Waltz.The Origins of War in Neorealist Theory[J].Interdisciplinary History,1988,18(4):616.
(4)倪世雄:当代西方国际关系理论[M].上海:复旦大学出版社,2001:374.
(5)陆武.试论美日韩体系对东北亚安全机制构建的影响[J].邢台学院学报,2004(1):50.
(6)事实上,2年前,即1966年,英国政府就决定在70年代中期之前将英国军事力量撤出苏伊士运河东部,美国在西方向的防务责任陡然增加。
(7)阿米塔·阿查亚.建构安全共同体:东盟与地区秩序[M].上海:上海人民出版社,2004:75.
(8)Thakur Phanit.Regional integration attempts in Southeast Asia :a study of ASEAN’s problems and progress[D].Pennsylvania:Pennsylvania State University,1980:32—33.
(9)Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003:72.
(10)The Asean Declaration (Bangkok Declaration) Bangkok[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on January 27,2016.http://asean.org/the-asean-declaration-bangkok-declaration-bangkok-8-august-1967/.
(11)KUALA LUMPUR DECLARATION[M/OL].Missouri on August 16,1985.http://shodhganga.inflibnet.ac.in/bitstream/10603/17010/12/12_appendices.pdf.
(12)Adam Malik.Djakarta Conference and Asia’s Political Future[J].Pacific Community,1970,2(1):74.
(13)Donald McCLOUD.United States Policies toward regional organizations in Southesat Asia[J].World Affairs,1970,133(2):141.
(14)Regionalism in Southeast Asia[M].Jakarta:CSIS,1978.
(15)Sheldon W Simon.ASEAN’s Strategic Situation in the 1980s[J].Pacific Affairs,1987,60(1):89.
(16)张德广,杨文昌.跨越太平洋的握手——纪念尼克松访华40周年[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2012:131.
(17)田禾,周方冶.泰国[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2009:335.
(18)Ralf Emmers.Cooperative Security and the Balance of Power in ASEAN and the ARF[M].London and New York:Routledge,2003:101.
(19)Aileen S P Baviera.China’s Relations with Southeast Asia:Political Security and Economic Interests[C].Philippines:Philippines University,2015:6.
(20)Amitav Acharya.Constructing a Security Community in Southeast Asia:ASEAN and the Problem of Regional Order[M].London and New York:Routledge,2001:71.
(21)鲁道夫·C·塞韦里诺.东南亚共同体建设探源——来自东盟前任秘书长的洞见[M].北京:社会科学文献出版社,2012:10.
(22)Sueo Sudo.The International Relations of Japan and South East Asia:Forging a New Regionalism[M].London and New York:Routledge,2002:20.
(23)Protocol Amending the Agreement on the Establishment of the ASEAN Secretariat (Term-of-Duty of the Secretary General) Kuala Lumpur[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on May 24,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-secretariat-basic-documents-protocol-amending-the-agreement-on-the-establishment-of-the-asean-secretariat-term-of-duty-of-the-secretary-general-kuala-lumpur-9-july-1985-2.
(24)INSTRUMENT OF ACCESSION TO THE TREATY OF AMITY AND COOPERATION IN SOUTHEAST ASIA[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 16,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=instrument-of-accession-to-the-treaty-of-amity-and-cooperation-in-southeast-asia-5.
(25)值得注意的是,1991年冷战后面对大国,东盟也采用了平衡政策,一些东盟国家两面下注,在经济上依赖中国、在安全上依靠美国,从而最大限度地实现和维护东盟利益。与冷战后东盟奉行的大国平衡政策不同,1978—1991年期间东盟的平衡因素更多的是东盟为阻止地区霸权的存在,通过东盟地区安全治理机制对霸权行为进行平衡,进而维护东南亚地区安全秩序的和平与稳定,为东盟的发展创造更为有利的外部环境。
(26)陈弈平.依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略[M].北京:世界知识出版社,2006:76—77.
(27)ShannonTow.Southeast Asia in the Sino-U.S.Strategic Balance[J].Contemporary Southeast Asia,2004,26(3):452—453.
(28)CHINA’S POTENTIAL MILITARY THREAT TO SOUTHEAST ASIA[M/OL].https://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monograph_reports/MR1170/MR1170.ch3.pdf.
(29)Eero Palmujoki.Regionalism and Globalism in Southeast Asia[M/OL].https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/bfm%3A978-0-230-50469-1%2F1.pdf.
(30)The World to Come:ASEAN’s Political and Economic Prospects in the New Century[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 27,2012,http://asean.org/?static_post=the-world-to-come-asean-s-political-and-economic-prospects-in-the-new-century.
(31)Agreement On The Temporary Use Of Part Of The Premises Of The ASEAN Secretariat Jakarta,5 November 1991[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on May 24,2012,http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-secretariat-basic-documents-agreement-on-the-temporary-use-of-the-premises-of-the-asean-secretariat-jakarta-5-november-1991-2.
(32)Donald J Trump.A New National Security Strategy for a New Era[M/OL].White House,Missouri on December 18,2017.https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/new-national-security-strategy-new-era/.
(33)Subhash Kapila.China is the Major Threat to Asian Security and Stability[M/OL].Missouri on July 17,2014.http://www.southasiaanalysis.org/node/1566.
(34)Ian Tsung-Yen Chen and Alan Hao Yang.A harmonized Southeast Asia?Explanatory typologies of ASEAN countries’strategies to the rise of China[J].The Pacific Review,2013,26(3):273.
(35)Vibhanshu Shekhar.ASEAN’s Response to the Rise of China:Deploying a Hedging Strategy[J].China Report,2012(48),3:261—162.
(36)Cheng-Chwee Kuik,Nor Azizan Idris,and Abd Rahim Md Nor.The China Factor in the U.S.“Reengagement” With Southeast Asia:Drivers and Limits of Converged Hedging[J].Asian Politics & Policy,2012,4(3):338.
(37)DETERRING TERRORISM,DEVELOPING ASEAN AND STRENGTHENING LINKAGES WITH KEY PLAYERS ARE TOP PRIORITIES,SAYS INDONESIAN FOREIGN MINISTER[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on January 6,2003.http://asean.org/deterring-terrorism-developing-asean-and-strengthening-linkages-with-key-players-are-top-priorities-says-indonesian-foreign-minister/.
(38)ASEAN’S CONTRIBUTION TO REGIONAL EFFORTS IN COUNTER-TERRORISM[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 31,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=asean-s-contribution-to-regional-efforts-in-counter-terrorism.
(39)DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II (BALI CONCORD II)[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 7,2003.http://asean.org/declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-bali-concord-ii-3/.
(40)Towards an Integrated East Asia Community[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on July 27,2012.http://asean.org/?static_post=towards-an-integrated-east-asia-community.
(41)Media Release ASEAN Leaders Sign ASEAN Charter Singapore[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on November 20,2007.http://asean.org/media-release-asean-leaders-sign-asean-charter-singapore/.
(42)在东盟的呼吁和支持下,首届东盟—印度峰会、东盟—俄罗斯峰会、东盟—美国峰会分别于2002年11月、2005年12月、2013年10月召开。
(43)DECLARATION OF ASEAN CONCORD II (BALI CONCORD II)[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on October 7,2003.http://asean.org/declaration-of-asean-concord-ii-bali-concord-ii-3/.
(44)ASEAN Political-Security Community[M/OL].at ASEAN Secretariat,Missouri on June 2009.http://asean.org/asean-political-security-community/.