基于投入产出法的湖南省旅游业碳排放测算及GRA关联度分析
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摘要
全球气候变化问题对旅游业提出了新的要求。测算旅游业碳排放是深入研究低碳旅游的基础,对低碳旅游发展具有重要意义。基于投入产出法较为准确地估算了2008年~2014年湖南省旅游业的直接碳排放,分析了湖南省旅游业直接碳排放强度与人均碳排放的演变趋势,运用GRA关联法分析了湖南省旅游业各部门对碳排放影响的关联度。研究表明:(1)2008年~2014年,湖南省旅游业直接碳排放增长较快,从295.25万吨增长到783.14万吨;(2)湖南省交通、餐饮、购物和住宿部门的碳排放占到了旅游业直接碳排放总量的90%以上,是旅游业减碳化的主攻方向;(3)湖南省旅游业直接碳排放强度与人均碳排放呈现波动下降的趋势;(4)湖南省旅游业吃、住、行、游、购、娱六部门的碳排放与旅游业直接碳排放总量的关联度排序依次为:旅游游览(0.9296)>旅游餐饮(0.8456)>旅游交通(0.8254)>旅游住宿(0.8092)>旅游购物(0.7109)>其他(0.5732);(5)湖南省旅游业节能减排的突破点在于改变传统游览方式,重点在于促进交通理念和交通模式低碳化。
Global-climate-change problem poses new demands for tourism industry development. Estimating carbon emissions from tourism is the basis for further research on low-carbon tourism, which is of great significance to the development of low-carbon tourism. Based on input-output method, this paper estimated the direct carbon emissions of tourism in Hunan province from 2008 to 2014, analyzed the evolution trend of carbon intensity and per-person carbon emission in tourism industry of Hunan Province, and used GRA method to analyze the correlation of each tourism sectors impact of the total tourism carbon emission. The research showed that:(1) The direct carbon emissions of Hunan tourism from 2008 to 2014 grew rapidly, from 2.9525 million tons to 7.8314 million tons;(2)Transport, catering, shopping and accommodation sector accounted for more than 90% of total tourism emissions from 2008 to 2014, those were main directions of carbon reduction.(3)The tourism carbon intensity and per-person carbon emission of Hunan Province showed a downward evolution trend.(4)The correlation between sectors carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of Hunan tourism involved food, housing, transportation, sightseeing,shopping and entertainment was ranked as follows: Sightseeing(0.9296)>Tourism Catering(0.8456)>Tourism Transportation(0.8254)>Tourist Accommodation(0.8092)>Travel Shopping(0.7109)>Others(0.5732).(5)Changing traditional way of sightseeing was the breakthrough point for Energy conservation of tourism. Also,promoting low-carbon transportation concept and low-carbon transportation mode were equally important.
Global-climate-change problem poses new demands for tourism industry development. Estimating carbon emissions from tourism is the basis for further research on low-carbon tourism, which is of great significance to the development of low-carbon tourism. Based on input-output method, this paper estimated the direct carbon emissions of tourism in Hunan province from 2008 to 2014, analyzed the evolution trend of carbon intensity and per-person carbon emission in tourism industry of Hunan Province, and used GRA method to analyze the correlation of each tourism sectors impact of the total tourism carbon emission. The research showed that:(1) The direct carbon emissions of Hunan tourism from 2008 to 2014 grew rapidly, from 2.9525 million tons to 7.8314 million tons;(2)Transport, catering, shopping and accommodation sector accounted for more than 90% of total tourism emissions from 2008 to 2014, those were main directions of carbon reduction.(3)The tourism carbon intensity and per-person carbon emission of Hunan Province showed a downward evolution trend.(4)The correlation between sectors carbon emissions and total carbon emissions of Hunan tourism involved food, housing, transportation, sightseeing,shopping and entertainment was ranked as follows: Sightseeing(0.9296)>Tourism Catering(0.8456)>Tourism Transportation(0.8254)>Tourist Accommodation(0.8092)>Travel Shopping(0.7109)>Others(0.5732).(5)Changing traditional way of sightseeing was the breakthrough point for Energy conservation of tourism. Also,promoting low-carbon transportation concept and low-carbon transportation mode were equally important.
引文
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[4]Kuo Nae-Wen,Chen Pei-Hun.Quantifying energy use,carbon dioxide emission,and other environmental loads from island tourism based on a life cycle assessment approach[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,(17):1324-1330.
[5]Ghislain Dubois,Jean Paul Ceron.Tourism/Leisure Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts for 2050:Factors for Change in France[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2006,14(2):172-191.
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[9]石培华,吴普.中国旅游业能源消耗与CO2排放量的初步估算[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):235-243.
[10]韩元军,吴普.京津冀地区旅游业的碳排放测算与比较研究[J].人文地理,2016,31(04):127-134.
[11]张琰飞,朱海英,刘芳.旅游环境、消费习惯与低碳旅游参与意愿的关系——以武陵源自然遗产地为例[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(6):56-64.
[12]查建平.中国低碳旅游发展效率、减排潜力及减排路径[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(09):101-112.
[13]Peeters P,Dubois G.Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):447-457.
[14]赵先超,朱翔.湖南省旅游业碳排放的初步估算及脱钩效应分析[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(1):166-175.
[15]钟永德,石晟屹,李世宏,等.中国旅游业碳排放计量框架构建与实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):78-86.
[16]陶玉国,黄震方,吴丽敏,等.江苏省区域旅游业碳排放测度及其因素分解[J].地理学报,2014,69(10):1438-1448.
[17]肖建红,于爱芬,王敏.旅游过程碳足迹评估——以舟山群岛为例[J].旅游科学,2011,25(4):58-66.
[18]钟章奇,吴静,许爱文,等.中国各省区旅游业碳排放量初步估算及区域差异[J].世界地理研究,2016,25(01):83-94.
[19]Liu Hongtao,Xi Youmin,Guo Ju'e,et al.Energy emodied in the international trade of China:An energy input-output analysis[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(8):3957-3964.
[20]谭学瑞,邓聚龙.灰色关联分析:多因素统计分析新方法[J].统计研究,1995,65(03):46-48.
[21]李春香.湖北工业碳排放省际比较及因素分解分析[J].湖北社会科学,2013,(12):78-80.
[22]蒋晶晶,叶斌,计军平,等.中国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的行业贡献分解研究[J].环境科学,2014,35(11):4378-4386.
(1)数据来源:湖南省统计年鉴。
[2]G觟ssling S.Global environmental consequences of tourism[J].Global Environmental Change,2002,12(4):283-302.
[3]唐承财,钟林生,成升魁.我国低碳旅游的内涵及可持续发展策略研究[J].经济地理,2011,31(5):862-867.
[4]Kuo Nae-Wen,Chen Pei-Hun.Quantifying energy use,carbon dioxide emission,and other environmental loads from island tourism based on a life cycle assessment approach[J].Journal of Cleaner Production,2009,(17):1324-1330.
[5]Ghislain Dubois,Jean Paul Ceron.Tourism/Leisure Greenhouse Gas Emissions Forecasts for 2050:Factors for Change in France[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2006,14(2):172-191.
[6]UNWTO,UNEP,WMO.Climate Change and Tourism:Responding to Global Challenges.Madrid:UNWTO,UNEP&WMO,2008.
[7]G觟ssling S,Broderick J,Upham P,et al.Voluntary carbon offsetting schemes for aviation:Efficiency,credibility and sustainable tourism[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2007,15(3):223-248.
[8]G觟ssling S.Carbon neutral destinations:A conceptual analysis[J].Journal of Sustainable Tourism,2009,17(1):17-37.
[9]石培华,吴普.中国旅游业能源消耗与CO2排放量的初步估算[J].地理学报,2011,66(2):235-243.
[10]韩元军,吴普.京津冀地区旅游业的碳排放测算与比较研究[J].人文地理,2016,31(04):127-134.
[11]张琰飞,朱海英,刘芳.旅游环境、消费习惯与低碳旅游参与意愿的关系——以武陵源自然遗产地为例[J].旅游学刊,2013,28(6):56-64.
[12]查建平.中国低碳旅游发展效率、减排潜力及减排路径[J].旅游学刊,2016,31(09):101-112.
[13]Peeters P,Dubois G.Tourism travel under climate change mitigation constraints[J].Journal of Transport Geography,2010,18(3):447-457.
[14]赵先超,朱翔.湖南省旅游业碳排放的初步估算及脱钩效应分析[J].世界地理研究,2013,22(1):166-175.
[15]钟永德,石晟屹,李世宏,等.中国旅游业碳排放计量框架构建与实证研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2014,24(1):78-86.
[16]陶玉国,黄震方,吴丽敏,等.江苏省区域旅游业碳排放测度及其因素分解[J].地理学报,2014,69(10):1438-1448.
[17]肖建红,于爱芬,王敏.旅游过程碳足迹评估——以舟山群岛为例[J].旅游科学,2011,25(4):58-66.
[18]钟章奇,吴静,许爱文,等.中国各省区旅游业碳排放量初步估算及区域差异[J].世界地理研究,2016,25(01):83-94.
[19]Liu Hongtao,Xi Youmin,Guo Ju'e,et al.Energy emodied in the international trade of China:An energy input-output analysis[J].Energy Policy,2010,38(8):3957-3964.
[20]谭学瑞,邓聚龙.灰色关联分析:多因素统计分析新方法[J].统计研究,1995,65(03):46-48.
[21]李春香.湖北工业碳排放省际比较及因素分解分析[J].湖北社会科学,2013,(12):78-80.
[22]蒋晶晶,叶斌,计军平,等.中国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的行业贡献分解研究[J].环境科学,2014,35(11):4378-4386.
(1)数据来源:湖南省统计年鉴。