随机需求下考虑顾客策略行为的预售和退货策略
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摘要
预售策略目前已成为季节性产品零售商普遍采用的一种销售策略。策略型顾客在预售期购买商品尽管可以享受折扣的预售价格,但同时也面临着因不确定估值而可能带来的损失,所以顾客可能不愿意提前购买或提前购买了产品的顾客会选择在正常销售期间退货。此时零售商有两种策略可以选择:不进行预售、提供可退货服务的预售策略。针对市场需求不确定和顾客估值不确定并存的情况,利用均衡分析方法和理性预期理论分别建立了零售商不进行预售、允许顾客退货的预售策略的最优决策模型,并对这两种模型进行了求解与对比分析,以及敏感性分析。研究显示,当顾客对商品的估值较低时,零售商最好不要采取预售的方式。如果采取预售,则零售商的期望利润是退货补偿的严格凹函数。
Advance-selling is a commonly observed industrial practice in which a retailer allows consumers to preorder the fashionable product before the real selling season. Although enjoying a discount price in the advance-selling season, the strategic consumers face valuation uncertainty and know their realization only after product acquisition. Therefore, they may not be willing to preorder the product or want to return the product in the real selling season. The retailer has two strategic options, no advanced-selling allowed(NA) and advance-selling with some refund(AR). Given aggregate demand uncertainty and consumer's valuation uncertainty, optimization models were built in this paper for each option using the equilibrium analysis method and rational expectations theory. These two models are solved and the comparison analysis and sensitive analysis are performed. The study shows that advance-selling can hurt if consumer's expected valuation is low. The retailer's expected profit is concave function of refund when the retailer offers advance-selling.
Advance-selling is a commonly observed industrial practice in which a retailer allows consumers to preorder the fashionable product before the real selling season. Although enjoying a discount price in the advance-selling season, the strategic consumers face valuation uncertainty and know their realization only after product acquisition. Therefore, they may not be willing to preorder the product or want to return the product in the real selling season. The retailer has two strategic options, no advanced-selling allowed(NA) and advance-selling with some refund(AR). Given aggregate demand uncertainty and consumer's valuation uncertainty, optimization models were built in this paper for each option using the equilibrium analysis method and rational expectations theory. These two models are solved and the comparison analysis and sensitive analysis are performed. The study shows that advance-selling can hurt if consumer's expected valuation is low. The retailer's expected profit is concave function of refund when the retailer offers advance-selling.
引文
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[3] Liu Q, van Ryzin G J. Strategic capacity rationing to induce early purchases [J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(6): 1115-1129.
[4] Weng Z K, Palar M. Integrating early sales with production decisions: Analysis and insights [J]. IIE Transactions, 1999, 31(11): 1051-1060.
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[7] McCardle K, Rajaram K, Tang C S. Advance booking discount programs under retail competition [J]. Management Science, 2004, 50(5): 701-708.
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[10] Levin Y, McGill J, Nediak M. Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable items by a monopolist facing strategic consumers [J].Production and Operationins Management, 2010,9(1): 40-60.
[11] Su X. Inter-temporal pricing with strategic customer behavior[J]. Management Science, 2007, 53: 726-741.
[12] 周振红, 陈昀. 基于混合型消费者的最佳库存策略[J].系统管理学报, 2014, 23(3): 339-344.
[13] 黄松,杨超,张曦. 考虑战略顾客行为时的两阶段报童模型[J].系统管理学报, 2011, 20(1): 63-70.
[14] Shugan S M, Xie J. Advance Selling for Services [J].California Management Review, 2004, 46(3): 37-54.
[15] Gundepudi P, Rudi N, Seidmann A. Forward versus spot buying of information goods [J].Management Information System, 2001, 18: 107-131.
[16] Yu M, Kapuscinski R, Ahn H. Advance selling— The effect of capacity and customer behavior[R]. Working Paper, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 2009.
[17] Prasad A, Stecke K E, Zhao X. Advance selling by a newsvendor retailer [J]. Production Operation Management, 2011, 20(1): 129-142.
[18] Zhao X, Stecke K E. Pre-orders for new to-be-released products considering consumer loss aversion [J]. Production and Operations Management, 2010, 19(2): 198-215.
[19] Swinney R. Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain: The value of matching supply and demand [J]. Management Science, 2011, 57(10): 1737-1751.
[20] Su X. Consumer returns policies and supply chain performance [J]. Manufacturing and Service Operation Management, 2009, 11(4): 595-612.
[21] Shulman J, Coughlan A, Canan Savaskan R. Managing consumer returns in a competitive environment[J]. Management Science, 2011, 57(2): 347-362.
[22] Li Y, Xu L, Choi T M, et al. Optimal advance-selling strategy for fashionable products with opportunistic consumers returns[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 2014, 44(7): 938-952.
[23] 李勇健,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论, 2012, 15(5): 105-113.
[2] Xie J, Shugan S M. Electronic tickets, smart cards, and online prepayment: When and how to advance sell [J]. Marketing Science, 2001, 20(3): 219-243.
[3] Liu Q, van Ryzin G J. Strategic capacity rationing to induce early purchases [J]. Management Science, 2008, 54(6): 1115-1129.
[4] Weng Z K, Palar M. Integrating early sales with production decisions: Analysis and insights [J]. IIE Transactions, 1999, 31(11): 1051-1060.
[5] Tang C S, Rajaram K, Alptekinoglu A. The benefits of advance booking discount programs: Model and analysis [J]. Management Science, 2004, 50(4): 465-478.
[6] Boyaci T, ?zalp ?. Information acquisition for capacity planning via pricing and advance selling: When to stop and act? [J]. Operations Research, 2010, 58(5): 1328-1349.
[7] McCardle K, Rajaram K, Tang C S. Advance booking discount programs under retail competition [J]. Management Science, 2004, 50(5): 701-708.
[8] Landsberger M, Meilijson I C. Intertemporal price discrimination and sales strategy under incomplete information [J]. RAND Journal of Economics, 1985, 16(3): 424-430.
[9] Besanko D, Winston W L. Optimal price skimming by a monopolist facing rational consumers [J]. Management Science, 1990, 36(5): 555-567.
[10] Levin Y, McGill J, Nediak M. Optimal dynamic pricing of perishable items by a monopolist facing strategic consumers [J].Production and Operationins Management, 2010,9(1): 40-60.
[11] Su X. Inter-temporal pricing with strategic customer behavior[J]. Management Science, 2007, 53: 726-741.
[12] 周振红, 陈昀. 基于混合型消费者的最佳库存策略[J].系统管理学报, 2014, 23(3): 339-344.
[13] 黄松,杨超,张曦. 考虑战略顾客行为时的两阶段报童模型[J].系统管理学报, 2011, 20(1): 63-70.
[14] Shugan S M, Xie J. Advance Selling for Services [J].California Management Review, 2004, 46(3): 37-54.
[15] Gundepudi P, Rudi N, Seidmann A. Forward versus spot buying of information goods [J].Management Information System, 2001, 18: 107-131.
[16] Yu M, Kapuscinski R, Ahn H. Advance selling— The effect of capacity and customer behavior[R]. Working Paper, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, 2009.
[17] Prasad A, Stecke K E, Zhao X. Advance selling by a newsvendor retailer [J]. Production Operation Management, 2011, 20(1): 129-142.
[18] Zhao X, Stecke K E. Pre-orders for new to-be-released products considering consumer loss aversion [J]. Production and Operations Management, 2010, 19(2): 198-215.
[19] Swinney R. Selling to strategic consumers when product value is uncertain: The value of matching supply and demand [J]. Management Science, 2011, 57(10): 1737-1751.
[20] Su X. Consumer returns policies and supply chain performance [J]. Manufacturing and Service Operation Management, 2009, 11(4): 595-612.
[21] Shulman J, Coughlan A, Canan Savaskan R. Managing consumer returns in a competitive environment[J]. Management Science, 2011, 57(2): 347-362.
[22] Li Y, Xu L, Choi T M, et al. Optimal advance-selling strategy for fashionable products with opportunistic consumers returns[J]. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man, and Cybernetics: Systems, 2014, 44(7): 938-952.
[23] 李勇健,许磊,杨晓丽.产品预售、退货策略和消费者无缺陷退货行为[J].南开管理评论, 2012, 15(5): 105-113.