享受当下,还是留待未来?——时间观对跨期决策的影响
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摘要
本研究通过三组实验考察了线性和循环两种时间观对跨期决策的影响。实验1表明与循环时间观的人相比,线性时间观的人在跨期决策时更倾向于选择近期选项(假设1)。实验2进一步验证假设1,并且验证了时间感知的中介作用(假设2)。实验3考察了时间标记(有标记VS.无标记)对主效应的调节作用(假设3)。实验结果发现,在无标记情境下,线性时间观的人们会比循环时间观的人们更偏好近期选项;而在有标记情境下,这种效应会被减弱。本研究揭示了时间观可以作为个体跨期决策偏好的一种影响因素,并丰富了主观时间感知角度的跨期决策研究。
Intertemporal choice refers to decisions involving tradeoffs among costs and benefits at different time points. Most research on intertemporal choice has explored the influence of choice attributes. The existing literature has also discussed the relationship between individuals' subjective time conception and their intertemporal choice, especially from the perspective of individuals' characteristics and internal states. However, few research has investigated the same relationship from the perspective of the general view of time among individuals. Individuals' view of time can be classified into two types, namely, linear and circular views of time. We posit that views of time relate to individuals' perception of change in their surrounding environment. Such views may affect individuals' time perception and hence their intertemporal decision making.Three studies confirm our hypotheses. Hypothesis 1 states that people with a circular view of time, relative to those with a linear view of time, prefer the larger but later(LL) option in an intertemporal choice. Study 1 tested this main effect between the view of time and intertemporal decision making. The results of Study 1 confirmed Hypothesis 1. Hypothesis 2 states that participants with a linear view of time, relative to those with a circular view of time, perceive a longer time delay in the LL option in an intertemporal choice; thus, they prefer the smaller but sooner option. Hypothesis 2 also states that time perception of delay in the LL option mediates the effect of individuals' view of time on intertemporal choice. Study 2 tested the mediating effect of time perception in intertemporal decision making. Sixty-four participants were randomly assigned to one group with a linear view of time and another group with a circular view of time. All participants were presented with the same task and asked to finish the corresponding computerized questionnaires. The results of Study 2 supported Hypotheses 1 and 2. The ANOVA results indicated that the participants with a linear view of time perceived a long time delay and thus preferred the SS option in intertemporal decision making. Bootstrap mediating analysis indicated that time perception of delay mediated the influence of the participants' view of time on intertemporal choice. Hypothesis 3 posits that the presence or absence of a time marker moderates the effect proposed in Hypothesis 1. Study 3 was performed to test Hypothesis 3. A total of 122 participants were randomly assigned to one of four groups in a two(view of time: linear versus circular) by two(time marker: with marker versus without marker) between-subject experimental design. The participants were then asked to finish the corresponding experimental task. The ANOVA result revealed that the interaction term between view of time and time marker was significant. In the absence of a time marker, view of time significantly influenced the participants' time conception. Such effect diminished with the availability of specific time markers. These findings supported Hypothesis 3. This research confirmed the differences between linear and circular views of time in the midst of an intertemporal choice. Results revealed that people with a circular view of time, relative to those with a linear view of time, prefer the LL option in an intertemporal choice. The effect of such preference is mediated by time conception and is significant when specific time markers are absent.
Intertemporal choice refers to decisions involving tradeoffs among costs and benefits at different time points. Most research on intertemporal choice has explored the influence of choice attributes. The existing literature has also discussed the relationship between individuals' subjective time conception and their intertemporal choice, especially from the perspective of individuals' characteristics and internal states. However, few research has investigated the same relationship from the perspective of the general view of time among individuals. Individuals' view of time can be classified into two types, namely, linear and circular views of time. We posit that views of time relate to individuals' perception of change in their surrounding environment. Such views may affect individuals' time perception and hence their intertemporal decision making.Three studies confirm our hypotheses. Hypothesis 1 states that people with a circular view of time, relative to those with a linear view of time, prefer the larger but later(LL) option in an intertemporal choice. Study 1 tested this main effect between the view of time and intertemporal decision making. The results of Study 1 confirmed Hypothesis 1. Hypothesis 2 states that participants with a linear view of time, relative to those with a circular view of time, perceive a longer time delay in the LL option in an intertemporal choice; thus, they prefer the smaller but sooner option. Hypothesis 2 also states that time perception of delay in the LL option mediates the effect of individuals' view of time on intertemporal choice. Study 2 tested the mediating effect of time perception in intertemporal decision making. Sixty-four participants were randomly assigned to one group with a linear view of time and another group with a circular view of time. All participants were presented with the same task and asked to finish the corresponding computerized questionnaires. The results of Study 2 supported Hypotheses 1 and 2. The ANOVA results indicated that the participants with a linear view of time perceived a long time delay and thus preferred the SS option in intertemporal decision making. Bootstrap mediating analysis indicated that time perception of delay mediated the influence of the participants' view of time on intertemporal choice. Hypothesis 3 posits that the presence or absence of a time marker moderates the effect proposed in Hypothesis 1. Study 3 was performed to test Hypothesis 3. A total of 122 participants were randomly assigned to one of four groups in a two(view of time: linear versus circular) by two(time marker: with marker versus without marker) between-subject experimental design. The participants were then asked to finish the corresponding experimental task. The ANOVA result revealed that the interaction term between view of time and time marker was significant. In the absence of a time marker, view of time significantly influenced the participants' time conception. Such effect diminished with the availability of specific time markers. These findings supported Hypothesis 3. This research confirmed the differences between linear and circular views of time in the midst of an intertemporal choice. Results revealed that people with a circular view of time, relative to those with a linear view of time, prefer the LL option in an intertemporal choice. The effect of such preference is mediated by time conception and is significant when specific time markers are absent.
引文
Baltes,P.B.(1987).Theoretical propositions of life-span developmental psychology:On the dynamics between growth and decline.Developmental Psychology,23(5),611-626.
Barkley,R.A.,Edwards,G.,Laneri,M.,Fletcher,K.,&Metevia,L.(2001).Executive functioning,temporal discounting,and sense of time in adolescents with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)and oppositional defiant disorder(ODD).Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology,29(6),541-556.
Block,R.A.(1978).Remembered duration:Effects of event and sequence complexity.Memory&Cognition,6(3),320-326.
Block,R.A.,&Zakay,D.(1997).Prospective and retrospective duration judgments:A meta-analytic review.Psychonomic Bulletin&Review,4(2),184-197.
Brown,S.W.(1995).Time,change,and motion:The effects of stimulus movement on temporal perception.Perception&Psychophysics,57(1),105-116.
Caillois,R.,&McKeon,N.(1963).Circular time,rectilinear time.Diogenes,11(42),1-13.
Fraisse,P.(1984).Perception and estimation of time.Annual Review of Psychology,35,1-37.
Frederick,S.,Loewenstein,G.,&O'Donoghue,T.(2002).Time discounting and time preference:A critical review.Journal of Economic Literature,40(2),351-401.
Gibbons,H.,Brandler,S.,&Rammsayer,T.H.(2003).Dissociating aspects of temporal and frequency processing:A functional ERP study in humans.Cortex,39(4-5),947-965.
Graham,R.J.(1981).The role of perception of time in consumer research.Journal of Consumer Research,7(4),335-342.
Hayes,A.F.(2013).Introduction to mediation,moderation,and conditional process analysis:A regression-based approach.New York:Guilford Press.
Huang,X.T.,&Xu,G.G.(1997).Test the change/segmentation model(I).Acta Psychologica Sinica,29(3),326-334.[黄希庭,徐光国.(1997).对变化/分割模型的检验(1).心理学报,29(3),326-334.]
Jiang,C-M.,Liu,H-Z.,Cai,X-H.,&Li,S.(2016).A process test of priority models of intertemporal choice.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(1),59-72.[江程铭,刘洪志,蔡晓红,李纾.(2016).跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验.心理学报,48(1),59-72.]
Kassam,K.S.,Gilbert,D.T.,Boston,A.,&Wilson,T.D.(2008).Future anhedonia and time discounting.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,44(6),1533-1537.
Kim,B.K.,&Zauberman,G.(2009).Perception of anticipatory time in temporal discounting.Journal of Neuroscience,Psychology,and Economics,2(2),91-101.
Kim,B.K.,&Zauberman,G.(2013).Can Victoria's Secret change the future?A subjective time perception account of sexual-cue effects on impatience.Journal of Experimental Psychology:General,142(2),328-335.
Kim,B.K.,Zauberman,G.,&Bettman,J.R.(2012).Space,time,and intertemporal preferences.Journal of Consumer Research,39(4),867-880.
Li,A.M.,Sun,H.L.,Xiong,G.X.,Wang,X.T.,&Li,B.(2016).The effect and cognitive mechanism of“time poverty”on intertemporal choice and proactive behavior.Advances in Psychological Science,24(6),874-884.[李爱梅,孙海龙,熊冠星,王笑天,李斌.(2016).“时间贫穷”对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响及其认知机制.心理科学进展,24(6),874-884.]
Liang,Z-Y.,&Liu,H.(2011).Exploring the nature of intertemporal choice.Advances in Psychological Science,19(7),959-866.[梁竹苑,刘欢.(2011).跨期选择的性质探索.心理科学进展,19(7),959-966.]
Lightfoot,C.,&Lyra,M.C.D.P.(2000).Culture,self and time:Prospects for the new millennium.Culture&Psychology,6(2),99-104.
Liu,Y.,&Sun,Y.(2016).Time unpacking effect and its impact on intertemporal decision making.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(4),362-370.[刘扬,孙彦.(2016).时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响.心理学报,48(4),362-370.]
Loewenstein,G.,&Thaler,R.H.(1989).Anomalies:Intertemporal choice.The Journal of Economic Perspectives,3(4),181-193.
Lynch Jr,J.G.,Marmorstein,H.,&Weigold,M.F.(1988).Choices from sets including remembered brands:Use of recalled attributes and prior overall evaluations.Journal of Consumer Research,15(2),169-184.
May,F.(2017).The effect of future event markers on intertemporal choice is moderated by the reliance on emotions versus reason to make decisions.Journal of Consumer Research,44(2),313-331.
McCormack,T.(2014).Three types of temporal perspective:Characterizing developmental changes in temporal thought.Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,1326(1),82-89.
Moser,C.,Stauffacher,M.,Krütli,P.,&Scholz,R.W.(2012).The influence of linear and cyclical temporal representations on risk perception of nuclear waste:An experimental study.Journal of Risk Research,15(5),459-476.
Overton,W.F.(1994).The arrow of time and the cycle of time:Concepts of change,cognition,and embodiment.Psychological Inquiry,5(3),215-237.
Poynter,W.D.,&Homa,D.(1983).Duration judgment and the experience of change.Perception&Psychophysics,33(6),548-560.
Rachlin,H.,&Jones,B.A.(2008).Social discounting and delay discounting.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,21(1),29-43.
Read,D.,Frederick,S.,&Scholten,M.(2013).DRIFT:An analysis of outcome framing in intertemporal choice.Journal of Experimental Psychology:Learning,Memory and Cognition,39(2),573-588.
Reynolds,B.,&Schiffbauer,R.(2004).Measuring state changes in human delay discounting:An experiential discounting task.Behavioural Processes,67(3),343-356.
Ruscher,J.B.(2012).Describing grief under cyclical versus linear conceptions of time.Journal of Language and Social Psychology,31(3),321-330.
Samuelson,P.A.(1937).A note on measurement of utility.Review of Economic Studies,4(2),155-161.
Sheth,B.R.,&Shimojo,S.(2000).In space,the past can be recast but not the present.Perception,29(11),1279-1290.
Siddiqui,R.A.,May,F.,&Monga,A.(2014).Reversals of task duration estimates:Thinking how rather than why shrinks duration estimates for simple tasks,but elongates estimates for complex tasks.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,50(1),184-189.
Suo,T.,Zhang,F.,Zhao,G.X.,&Li,H.(2014).The influence of time perception difference on intertemporal choice.Acta Psychologica Sinica,46(2),165-173.[索涛,张锋,赵国祥,李红.(2014).时间感知差异对跨期选择倾向的影响作用.心理学报,46(2),165-173.]
Swinyard,W.R.(1993).The effects of mood,involvement,and quality of store experience on shopping intentions.Journal of Consumer Research,20(2),271-280.
Takahashi,T.(2006).Time-estimation error following WeberFechner law may explain subadditive time-discounting.Medical Hypotheses,67(6),1372-1374.
Tam,L.,&Dholakia,U.(2013).Saving in cycles:How to get people to save more money.Psychological Science,25(2),531-537.
Wittmann,M.,Leland,D.S.,Churan,J.,&Paulus,M.P.(2007).Impaired time perception and motor timing in stimulant-dependent subjects.Drug and Alcohol Dependence,90(2-3),183-192.
Yamada,Y.(2004).The generative life cycle model:Integration of Japanese folk images and generativity.In E.de St.Aubin,D.P.McAdams&T.-C.Kim(Eds.),The generative society:Caring for future generations(pp.97-112).Washington,DC,US:American Psychological Association.
Yamada,Y.,&Kato,Y.(2006).Images of circular time and spiral repetition:The generative life cycle model.Culture&Psychology,12(2),143-160.
Zauberman,G.,Kim,B.K.,Malkoc,S.A.,&Bettman,J.R.(2009).Discounting time and time discounting:Subjective time perception and intertemporal preferences.Journal of Marketing Research,46(4),543-556.
1感谢评审专家为此处语句提出了一种更为简洁的提问表述方式,我们在实验3中采用。
2实验3的数据结果中出现一些极端值的干扰。具体来说,在原始数据中的远期选项主观价值这一问项里,被试答案的平均值为122.70(SD=73.36),有三个被试的答案高于均值加三倍标准差的值(342.78),分别为450、480和500。第一个被试属于循环无标记组,后两个属于线性无标记组。在后续分析中,本研究对这三个极端值进行了截断处理,统一调整为250(其他被试中的最高值为250)。
Barkley,R.A.,Edwards,G.,Laneri,M.,Fletcher,K.,&Metevia,L.(2001).Executive functioning,temporal discounting,and sense of time in adolescents with attention deficit hyperactivity disorder(ADHD)and oppositional defiant disorder(ODD).Journal of Abnormal Child Psychology,29(6),541-556.
Block,R.A.(1978).Remembered duration:Effects of event and sequence complexity.Memory&Cognition,6(3),320-326.
Block,R.A.,&Zakay,D.(1997).Prospective and retrospective duration judgments:A meta-analytic review.Psychonomic Bulletin&Review,4(2),184-197.
Brown,S.W.(1995).Time,change,and motion:The effects of stimulus movement on temporal perception.Perception&Psychophysics,57(1),105-116.
Caillois,R.,&McKeon,N.(1963).Circular time,rectilinear time.Diogenes,11(42),1-13.
Fraisse,P.(1984).Perception and estimation of time.Annual Review of Psychology,35,1-37.
Frederick,S.,Loewenstein,G.,&O'Donoghue,T.(2002).Time discounting and time preference:A critical review.Journal of Economic Literature,40(2),351-401.
Gibbons,H.,Brandler,S.,&Rammsayer,T.H.(2003).Dissociating aspects of temporal and frequency processing:A functional ERP study in humans.Cortex,39(4-5),947-965.
Graham,R.J.(1981).The role of perception of time in consumer research.Journal of Consumer Research,7(4),335-342.
Hayes,A.F.(2013).Introduction to mediation,moderation,and conditional process analysis:A regression-based approach.New York:Guilford Press.
Huang,X.T.,&Xu,G.G.(1997).Test the change/segmentation model(I).Acta Psychologica Sinica,29(3),326-334.[黄希庭,徐光国.(1997).对变化/分割模型的检验(1).心理学报,29(3),326-334.]
Jiang,C-M.,Liu,H-Z.,Cai,X-H.,&Li,S.(2016).A process test of priority models of intertemporal choice.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(1),59-72.[江程铭,刘洪志,蔡晓红,李纾.(2016).跨期选择单维占优模型的过程检验.心理学报,48(1),59-72.]
Kassam,K.S.,Gilbert,D.T.,Boston,A.,&Wilson,T.D.(2008).Future anhedonia and time discounting.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,44(6),1533-1537.
Kim,B.K.,&Zauberman,G.(2009).Perception of anticipatory time in temporal discounting.Journal of Neuroscience,Psychology,and Economics,2(2),91-101.
Kim,B.K.,&Zauberman,G.(2013).Can Victoria's Secret change the future?A subjective time perception account of sexual-cue effects on impatience.Journal of Experimental Psychology:General,142(2),328-335.
Kim,B.K.,Zauberman,G.,&Bettman,J.R.(2012).Space,time,and intertemporal preferences.Journal of Consumer Research,39(4),867-880.
Li,A.M.,Sun,H.L.,Xiong,G.X.,Wang,X.T.,&Li,B.(2016).The effect and cognitive mechanism of“time poverty”on intertemporal choice and proactive behavior.Advances in Psychological Science,24(6),874-884.[李爱梅,孙海龙,熊冠星,王笑天,李斌.(2016).“时间贫穷”对跨期决策和前瞻行为的影响及其认知机制.心理科学进展,24(6),874-884.]
Liang,Z-Y.,&Liu,H.(2011).Exploring the nature of intertemporal choice.Advances in Psychological Science,19(7),959-866.[梁竹苑,刘欢.(2011).跨期选择的性质探索.心理科学进展,19(7),959-966.]
Lightfoot,C.,&Lyra,M.C.D.P.(2000).Culture,self and time:Prospects for the new millennium.Culture&Psychology,6(2),99-104.
Liu,Y.,&Sun,Y.(2016).Time unpacking effect and its impact on intertemporal decision making.Acta Psychologica Sinica,48(4),362-370.[刘扬,孙彦.(2016).时间分解效应及其对跨期决策的影响.心理学报,48(4),362-370.]
Loewenstein,G.,&Thaler,R.H.(1989).Anomalies:Intertemporal choice.The Journal of Economic Perspectives,3(4),181-193.
Lynch Jr,J.G.,Marmorstein,H.,&Weigold,M.F.(1988).Choices from sets including remembered brands:Use of recalled attributes and prior overall evaluations.Journal of Consumer Research,15(2),169-184.
May,F.(2017).The effect of future event markers on intertemporal choice is moderated by the reliance on emotions versus reason to make decisions.Journal of Consumer Research,44(2),313-331.
McCormack,T.(2014).Three types of temporal perspective:Characterizing developmental changes in temporal thought.Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences,1326(1),82-89.
Moser,C.,Stauffacher,M.,Krütli,P.,&Scholz,R.W.(2012).The influence of linear and cyclical temporal representations on risk perception of nuclear waste:An experimental study.Journal of Risk Research,15(5),459-476.
Overton,W.F.(1994).The arrow of time and the cycle of time:Concepts of change,cognition,and embodiment.Psychological Inquiry,5(3),215-237.
Poynter,W.D.,&Homa,D.(1983).Duration judgment and the experience of change.Perception&Psychophysics,33(6),548-560.
Rachlin,H.,&Jones,B.A.(2008).Social discounting and delay discounting.Journal of Behavioral Decision Making,21(1),29-43.
Read,D.,Frederick,S.,&Scholten,M.(2013).DRIFT:An analysis of outcome framing in intertemporal choice.Journal of Experimental Psychology:Learning,Memory and Cognition,39(2),573-588.
Reynolds,B.,&Schiffbauer,R.(2004).Measuring state changes in human delay discounting:An experiential discounting task.Behavioural Processes,67(3),343-356.
Ruscher,J.B.(2012).Describing grief under cyclical versus linear conceptions of time.Journal of Language and Social Psychology,31(3),321-330.
Samuelson,P.A.(1937).A note on measurement of utility.Review of Economic Studies,4(2),155-161.
Sheth,B.R.,&Shimojo,S.(2000).In space,the past can be recast but not the present.Perception,29(11),1279-1290.
Siddiqui,R.A.,May,F.,&Monga,A.(2014).Reversals of task duration estimates:Thinking how rather than why shrinks duration estimates for simple tasks,but elongates estimates for complex tasks.Journal of Experimental Social Psychology,50(1),184-189.
Suo,T.,Zhang,F.,Zhao,G.X.,&Li,H.(2014).The influence of time perception difference on intertemporal choice.Acta Psychologica Sinica,46(2),165-173.[索涛,张锋,赵国祥,李红.(2014).时间感知差异对跨期选择倾向的影响作用.心理学报,46(2),165-173.]
Swinyard,W.R.(1993).The effects of mood,involvement,and quality of store experience on shopping intentions.Journal of Consumer Research,20(2),271-280.
Takahashi,T.(2006).Time-estimation error following WeberFechner law may explain subadditive time-discounting.Medical Hypotheses,67(6),1372-1374.
Tam,L.,&Dholakia,U.(2013).Saving in cycles:How to get people to save more money.Psychological Science,25(2),531-537.
Wittmann,M.,Leland,D.S.,Churan,J.,&Paulus,M.P.(2007).Impaired time perception and motor timing in stimulant-dependent subjects.Drug and Alcohol Dependence,90(2-3),183-192.
Yamada,Y.(2004).The generative life cycle model:Integration of Japanese folk images and generativity.In E.de St.Aubin,D.P.McAdams&T.-C.Kim(Eds.),The generative society:Caring for future generations(pp.97-112).Washington,DC,US:American Psychological Association.
Yamada,Y.,&Kato,Y.(2006).Images of circular time and spiral repetition:The generative life cycle model.Culture&Psychology,12(2),143-160.
Zauberman,G.,Kim,B.K.,Malkoc,S.A.,&Bettman,J.R.(2009).Discounting time and time discounting:Subjective time perception and intertemporal preferences.Journal of Marketing Research,46(4),543-556.
1感谢评审专家为此处语句提出了一种更为简洁的提问表述方式,我们在实验3中采用。
2实验3的数据结果中出现一些极端值的干扰。具体来说,在原始数据中的远期选项主观价值这一问项里,被试答案的平均值为122.70(SD=73.36),有三个被试的答案高于均值加三倍标准差的值(342.78),分别为450、480和500。第一个被试属于循环无标记组,后两个属于线性无标记组。在后续分析中,本研究对这三个极端值进行了截断处理,统一调整为250(其他被试中的最高值为250)。