西藏林芝黑颈鹤越冬地潜在威胁的模型分析
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摘要
黑颈鹤(Grus nigricollis)是青藏高原的特有鹤类,其目前已知最大的越冬栖息地位于我国的西藏自治区。根据以往调查,约6000只黑颈鹤越冬于西藏的雅鲁藏布江中上游河谷以及拉萨河—彭波河谷地区,而仅有少量个体在林芝地区越冬。2016～2017年,对西藏东部雅鲁藏布江下游湿地进行调查时,在位于林芝地区的尼洋河与雅鲁藏布江汇合处的"T"型河谷地带记录到527只黑颈鹤在沙洲及江岸农田中集群越冬,总数约占该物种全球种群的5.0%。两年的连续观察中记录到该越冬种群幼体新增率分别为8.64%和6.64%,这或许意味着该种群在其对应的繁殖地及迁徙停歇地受到威胁。建立MAXENT模型,发现海拔为影响研究区域内黑颈鹤栖息地选择的最主要环境因素,且其潜在栖息地主要位于海拔在2920 m的地区,总面积约为131.98 km~2,因此,若假设不同强度的干扰使得水位以5 m为单位上升,黑颈鹤的潜在越冬栖息地将依次减少至当前栖息地面积的54.42%(2925 m),42.72%(2930 m),31.71%(2935 m),22.33%(2940 m),14.86%(2945 m)以及9.03%(2950 m)。鉴于该越冬栖息地生境狭窄的特殊性,因气候变化或人类活动所引起的水位上升将会对黑颈鹤该越冬种群的生存产生不可逆转的影响。
Black-necked crane( Grus nigricollis) is endemic to the Tibetan Plateau,the site of its largest and most significant wintering habitats. According to current investigations,approximately6000 black-necked cranes winter in the upper-middle valley of the Yarlung Zangbo River and Lhasa River-Pengbo Valley,while only a few flocks were reported wintering in Nyingchi Prefecture. During 2016-2017 we conducted field survey in the lower reaches of wetlands along the Yarlung Zangbo River. We recorded 527 black-necked cranes in the T-shaped valley zone located in the estuary of the Nyang and Yarlung Zangbo rivers. Nyingchi,accounted for about 5% of the global population.Based on our two-year survey,the recruitment rate of this wintering population was 8. 64% and6. 64% respectively,probably suggesting that this population is threatened in its breeding or stopover habitats. We used a MAXENT model to determine that elevation( 2920 m) was the most significant factor in determining black-necked crane wintering habitat selection,and the area of potential wintering habitats was 131. 98 km~2. Consequently,if we assume the disturbances of various magnitudes lead to wetland water levels rising in increments of 5 m,the wintering habitats of blacknecked cranes would decrease to 54%( 2925 m),43%( 2930 m),32%( 2935 m),22%( 2940 m),15%( 2945 m) and 9%( 2950 m) of its present habitat area. Considering the narrow distribution of the wintering grounds in this region,rising water levels caused by climate change or other anthropogenic activities would exert irreversible impact on the survival of this wintering population of black-necked crane.
Black-necked crane( Grus nigricollis) is endemic to the Tibetan Plateau,the site of its largest and most significant wintering habitats. According to current investigations,approximately6000 black-necked cranes winter in the upper-middle valley of the Yarlung Zangbo River and Lhasa River-Pengbo Valley,while only a few flocks were reported wintering in Nyingchi Prefecture. During 2016-2017 we conducted field survey in the lower reaches of wetlands along the Yarlung Zangbo River. We recorded 527 black-necked cranes in the T-shaped valley zone located in the estuary of the Nyang and Yarlung Zangbo rivers. Nyingchi,accounted for about 5% of the global population.Based on our two-year survey,the recruitment rate of this wintering population was 8. 64% and6. 64% respectively,probably suggesting that this population is threatened in its breeding or stopover habitats. We used a MAXENT model to determine that elevation( 2920 m) was the most significant factor in determining black-necked crane wintering habitat selection,and the area of potential wintering habitats was 131. 98 km~2. Consequently,if we assume the disturbances of various magnitudes lead to wetland water levels rising in increments of 5 m,the wintering habitats of blacknecked cranes would decrease to 54%( 2925 m),43%( 2930 m),32%( 2935 m),22%( 2940 m),15%( 2945 m) and 9%( 2950 m) of its present habitat area. Considering the narrow distribution of the wintering grounds in this region,rising water levels caused by climate change or other anthropogenic activities would exert irreversible impact on the survival of this wintering population of black-necked crane.
引文
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[19]李筑眉,李凤山.黑颈鹤研究[M].上海:上海科技教育出版社,2005.[Li Zhumei,Li Fengshan.Research on the blacknecked crane[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technological Education Publishing House,2005.]
[20]Swets J A.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1988,240(4857):1285-1293.
[21]Pearce J,Ferrier S.Evaluating the predictive performances of habitat models developed using logistic regression[J].Ecological Modelling,2000,133(3):225-245.
[22]仓曲卓玛,顾滨源,Marv Anne Bishop.西藏黑颈鹤越冬数量统计[J].西藏科技,1994(3):12-13.[Tsamchu Drolma,Gu Binyuan,Bishop M A.Counts of wintering black-necked cranes in Tibet[J].Tibet's Science and Technology,1994(3):12-13.]
[23]仓决卓玛,杨乐,李建川,等.西藏黑颈鹤的保护与研究现状[J].四川动物,2008,27(3):449-453.[Tsamchu Drolma,Yang Le,Li Jianchuan,et al.Current status of conservation and research on black-necked crane[J].Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2008,27(3):449-453.]
[24]Johnsgard P A.Cranes of the world[M].Bloomington:Indiana University Press,1983.
[25]吴至康,李筑眉,王有辉,等.黑颈鹤迁徙研究初报[J].动物学报,1993,39(1):105-106.[Wu Zhikang,Li Zhumei,Wang Youhui,et al.Migration of black-necked crane in China[J].Acta Zoologica Sinica,1993,39(1):105-106.]
[26]杨晓君,钱法文,李凤山,等.中国首次卫星跟踪黑颈鹤研究初报[J].动物学研究,2006,26(6):657-658.[Yang Xiaojun,Qian Fawen,Li Fengshan,et al.First satellite tracking of black-necked cranes in China[J].Zoological Research,2006,26(6):657-658.]
[27]高立波,钱法文,杨晓君,等.云南大山包越冬黑颈鹤迁徙路线的卫星跟踪[J].动物学研究,2007,28(4):353-361.[Gao Libo,Qian Fawen,Yang Xiaojun,et al.Satellite tracking on the migratory routes of wintering black-necked cranes at Dashanbao in Yunnan[J].Zoological Research,2007,28(4):353-361.]
[28]Lhendup P,Webb E L.Black-necked cranes Grus nigricollis in Bhutan:migration routes,threats and conservation prospects[J].Forktail,2009,25(25):125-129.
[29]Liu Qiang,Li Fengshan,Buzzard P,et al.Migration routes and new breeding areas of black-necked cranes[J].The Wilson Journal of Ornithology,2012,124(4):704-712.
[2]Niemi G J,Hanowski J M,Lima A R,et al.A critical analysis on the use of indicator species in management[J].The Journal of Wildlife Management,1997,61(4):1240-1252.
[3]李凤山.IUCN黑颈鹤保护行动计划[J].动物学研究,2014,35(S1):3-9.[Li Fengshan.IUCN black-necked crane(Grus nigricollis)conservation plan[J].Zoological Research,2014,35(S1):3-9.]
[4]Cambridge U K.Bird life international.Threatened Birds of Asia:the Bird Life International Red Data Book[M].Cambridge:Bird Life International,2001.
[5]杨乐,李继荣,仓决卓玛.西藏“一江两河”流域越冬黑颈鹤种群数量及分布[J].东北林业大学学报,2016,44(5):70-72,83.[Yang Le,Li Jirong,Tsamchu Drolma.Number and distribution of wintering black-necked crane(Grus nigricollis)in drainage area of Yarlung Zangbo River and its two branches from Tibet,China[J].Journal of Northeast Forestry University,2016,44(5):70-72,83.]
[6]Gregory R D,Gibbons D W,Donald P F.Bird census and survey techniques[M]//.Sutherland W J,Newton I,Green R.Bird ecology and conservation:a handbook of techniques.New York:Oxford University Press,2004:17-56.
[7]Jiguet F,Barbet-Massin M,Chevallier D.Predictive distribution models applied to satellite tracks:modelling the western African winter range of European migrant black storks Ciconia nigra[J].Journal of Ornithology,2011,152(1):111-118.
[8]Mi Cunrong,Huettmann F,Guo Yumin,et al.Why choose Random Forest to predict rare species distribution with few samples in large undersampled areas?Three Asian crane species models provide supporting evidence[J].Peer J,2017,5:e2849.
[9]Hijmans R J,Cameron S E,Parra J L,et al.Very high resolution interpolated climate surfaces for global land areas[J].International Journal of Climatology,2005,25(15):1965-1978.
[10]Costa G C,Nogueira C,Machado R B,et al.Sampling bias and the use of ecological niche modeling in conservation planning:a field evaluation in a biodiversity hotspot[J].Biodiversity and Conservation,2010,19(3):883-899.
[11]Betts M G,Ganio L M,Huso M M P,et al.Comment on“Methods to account for spatial autocorrelation in the analysis of species distributional data:a review”[J].Ecography,2009,32(3):374-378.
[12]Baltensperger A P,Huettmann F.Predictive spatial niche and biodiversity hotspot models for small mammal communities in Alaska:applying machine-learning to conservation planning[J].Landscape Ecology,2015,30(4):681-697.
[13]Phillips S J,Dudik M.Modeling of species distributions with Maxent:new extensions and a comprehensive evaluation[J].Ecography,2008,31(2):161-175.
[14]Pearson R G,Raxworthy C J,Nakamura M,et al.Predicting species distributions from small numbers of occurrence records:a test case using cryptic geckos in Madagascar[J].Journal of Biogeography,2007,34(1):102-117.
[15]Fouquet A,Ficetola G F,Haigh A.Using ecological niche modelling to infer past,present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri,an endangered New Zealand native frog[J].Biological Conservation,2010,143(6):1375-1384.
[16]刘振生,高惠,滕丽微,等.基于MAXENT模型的贺兰山岩羊生境适宜性评价[J].生态学报,2013,33(22):7243-7249.[Liu Zhensheng,Gao Hui,Teng Liwei,et al.Habitat suitability assessment of blue sheep in Helan Mountain based on MAXENT modeling[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2013,33(22):7243-7249.]
[17]Fielding A H,Bell J F.A review of methods for the assessment of prediction errors in conservation presence/absence models[J].Environmental Conservation,1997,24(1):38-49.
[18]Heglund P J.Foundation of species-environment relations[M]//Scott J M,Heglund P J,Morrison M L.Predicting species occurrences:issues of accuracy and scale.Washington D C:Island Press,2002:35-41.
[19]李筑眉,李凤山.黑颈鹤研究[M].上海:上海科技教育出版社,2005.[Li Zhumei,Li Fengshan.Research on the blacknecked crane[M].Shanghai:Shanghai Scientific and Technological Education Publishing House,2005.]
[20]Swets J A.Measuring the accuracy of diagnostic systems[J].Science,1988,240(4857):1285-1293.
[21]Pearce J,Ferrier S.Evaluating the predictive performances of habitat models developed using logistic regression[J].Ecological Modelling,2000,133(3):225-245.
[22]仓曲卓玛,顾滨源,Marv Anne Bishop.西藏黑颈鹤越冬数量统计[J].西藏科技,1994(3):12-13.[Tsamchu Drolma,Gu Binyuan,Bishop M A.Counts of wintering black-necked cranes in Tibet[J].Tibet's Science and Technology,1994(3):12-13.]
[23]仓决卓玛,杨乐,李建川,等.西藏黑颈鹤的保护与研究现状[J].四川动物,2008,27(3):449-453.[Tsamchu Drolma,Yang Le,Li Jianchuan,et al.Current status of conservation and research on black-necked crane[J].Sichuan Journal of Zoology,2008,27(3):449-453.]
[24]Johnsgard P A.Cranes of the world[M].Bloomington:Indiana University Press,1983.
[25]吴至康,李筑眉,王有辉,等.黑颈鹤迁徙研究初报[J].动物学报,1993,39(1):105-106.[Wu Zhikang,Li Zhumei,Wang Youhui,et al.Migration of black-necked crane in China[J].Acta Zoologica Sinica,1993,39(1):105-106.]
[26]杨晓君,钱法文,李凤山,等.中国首次卫星跟踪黑颈鹤研究初报[J].动物学研究,2006,26(6):657-658.[Yang Xiaojun,Qian Fawen,Li Fengshan,et al.First satellite tracking of black-necked cranes in China[J].Zoological Research,2006,26(6):657-658.]
[27]高立波,钱法文,杨晓君,等.云南大山包越冬黑颈鹤迁徙路线的卫星跟踪[J].动物学研究,2007,28(4):353-361.[Gao Libo,Qian Fawen,Yang Xiaojun,et al.Satellite tracking on the migratory routes of wintering black-necked cranes at Dashanbao in Yunnan[J].Zoological Research,2007,28(4):353-361.]
[28]Lhendup P,Webb E L.Black-necked cranes Grus nigricollis in Bhutan:migration routes,threats and conservation prospects[J].Forktail,2009,25(25):125-129.
[29]Liu Qiang,Li Fengshan,Buzzard P,et al.Migration routes and new breeding areas of black-necked cranes[J].The Wilson Journal of Ornithology,2012,124(4):704-712.