中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价
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摘要
在调查和分析中国北方地区农业生产现状的基础上,选择水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力4个准则层共16个指标构建农业干旱脆弱性评价指标体系。运用主成分分析法对高维变量系统进行有效降维,根据方差贡献率建立中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性评价模型,获得中国北方地区水资源、农业经济、社会和防旱抗旱能力脆弱性评价结果,获得各省(自治区、直辖市)干旱脆弱性分级阈值和区划。结果表明:(1)通过主成分分析得到农业经济、水资源、防旱抗旱能力、社会等5个主成分,方差贡献率分别为41.99%、19.25%、14.06%、8.07%和5.32%。(2)中国北方地区农业干旱脆弱性从小到大依次为北京、天津、山东、辽宁、吉林、山西、内蒙古、安徽、河北、河南、陕西、宁夏、青海、黑龙江、新疆和甘肃。
The vulnerability of water resources, agricultural economy, society and the ability of drought prevention and resistance were selected as the criterion layers to establish the index evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability, which was based on investigating and analyzing the present situation of agricultural production in Northern China.The principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimensionality of high dimensional variables. According to the variance contribution, the evaluation model of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China was established, and the classification threshold and regionalization of drought vulnerability in various provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) were obtained. The results showed that:(1)The variance contribution was 41.99%, 19.25%, 14.06%, 8.07% and 5.32% for the five major principal components, respectively.(2) According to the classification threshold and division of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China, the agricultural drought vulnerability based onascending sequence was Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Gansu.
The vulnerability of water resources, agricultural economy, society and the ability of drought prevention and resistance were selected as the criterion layers to establish the index evaluation system of agricultural drought vulnerability, which was based on investigating and analyzing the present situation of agricultural production in Northern China.The principal component analysis method was used to reduce the dimensionality of high dimensional variables. According to the variance contribution, the evaluation model of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China was established, and the classification threshold and regionalization of drought vulnerability in various provinces(autonomous regions, municipalities directly under the Central Government) were obtained. The results showed that:(1)The variance contribution was 41.99%, 19.25%, 14.06%, 8.07% and 5.32% for the five major principal components, respectively.(2) According to the classification threshold and division of agricultural drought vulnerability in Northern China, the agricultural drought vulnerability based onascending sequence was Beijing, Tianjin, Shandong, Liaoning, Jilin, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Anhui, Hebei, Henan, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Qinghai, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Gansu.
引文
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[17] 武建军,耿广坡,周洪奎,等.全球农业旱灾脆弱性及其空间分布特征[J].中国科学(地球科学),2017(6):733-744.
[18] 王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,32(12):1897-1904.
[19] 徐玉霞,许小明,杨宏伟,等.基于GIS的陕西省干旱灾害风险评估及区划[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(1):192-199.
[20] 王娅,周立华.宁夏盐池县沙漠化逆转过程的脆弱性诊断[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(1):39-47.
[21] Ashraf M,Routray J K,Saeed M.Determinants of farmers' choice of coping and adaptation measures to the drought hazard in Northwest Balochistan,Pakistan[J].Natural Hazards,2014,73(3):1451-1473.
[22] 何斌,王全九,吴迪,等.基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(1):219-227.
[23] 常文娟,梁忠民,马海波.基于主成分分析的干旱综合指标构建及应用[J].水文,2017,37(1):33-38,82.
[24] Kim S H,Lee M H,Bae D H.Estimation and assessment of natural drought index using principal component analysis[J].Journal of Korea Water Resources Association,2016,49(6):565-577.
[25] 舒晓慧,刘建平.利用主成分回归法处理多重共线性的若干问题[J].统计与决策,2004(10):25-26.
[26] Pearson K.On lines and planes of closest fit to systems of points in space[J].Philosophical Magazine,1901,2(11):559-572.
[27] 赵宗权,周亮广.江淮分水岭地区旱灾风险评估[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):370-375.
[2] Ashok K M,Vijay P S.A review of drought concepts[J].Journal of Hydrology,2010,391(1/2):202-216.
[3] IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis[M].Cambridge,UK:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[4] 谢祥永.中国北方干旱化的时空变化特征[C]//中国气象学会年会s5 干旱灾害风险评估与防控.2014.
[5] 胡实,莫兴国,林忠辉.未来气候情景下我国北方地区干旱时空变化趋势[J].干旱区地理,2015,38(2):239-248.
[6] 刘铁民.脆弱性——突发事件形成与发展的本质原因[J].中国应急管理,2010(10):32-35.
[7] 史培军.再论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,1996,5(4):6-17.
[8] Blakic P,Cannon T,Davis I,et al.At Risk:Natural Hazard,People’s Vulnerability and Disasters[M].London,UK:Routledge,2004:13-21.
[9] Tanago I G,Urquijo J,Blauhut V,et al.Learning from experience:a systematic review of assessments of vulnerability to drought[J].Natural Hazards,2016,80:951-973.
[10] 石育中,王俊,王子侨,等.农户尺度的黄土高原乡村干旱脆弱性及适应机理[J].地理科学进展,2017,36(10):1281-1293.
[11] 石翠萍,杨新军,王子侨,等.基于干旱脆弱性的农户系统体制转换及其影响机制——以榆中县中连川乡为例[J].人文地理,2015(6):77-82.
[12] Ng’Ambi C,Dzanja J,Mwase W.Rural farming households vulnerability to climate variability in Malawi:a case of Chitekwere Area Development Programme (ADP) in Lilongwe District[J].Journal of Agricultural Science,2015,7(7):93-102.
[13] Silva M M G T D,Kawasaki A.Socioeconomic vulnerability to disaster risk:a case study of flood and drought impact in a rural Sri Lankan community[J].Ecological Economics,2018,152:131-140.
[14] Ahmadalipour A,Moradkhani H.Multi-dimensional assessment of drought vulnerability in Africa:1960-2100[J].Science of the Total Environment,2018,644:520-535.
[15] Naumann G,Barbosa P,Garrote L,et al.Exploring drought vulnerability in Africa:an indicator based analysis to be used in early warning systems[J].Hydrology and Earth System Sciences,2014,18(5):1591-1604.
[16] 李梦娜,钱会,乔亮.关中地区农业干旱脆弱性评价[J].资源科学,2016,38(1):166-174.
[17] 武建军,耿广坡,周洪奎,等.全球农业旱灾脆弱性及其空间分布特征[J].中国科学(地球科学),2017(6):733-744.
[18] 王莺,王静,姚玉璧,等.基于主成分分析的中国南方干旱脆弱性评价[J].生态环境学报,2014,32(12):1897-1904.
[19] 徐玉霞,许小明,杨宏伟,等.基于GIS的陕西省干旱灾害风险评估及区划[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(1):192-199.
[20] 王娅,周立华.宁夏盐池县沙漠化逆转过程的脆弱性诊断[J].中国沙漠,2018,38(1):39-47.
[21] Ashraf M,Routray J K,Saeed M.Determinants of farmers' choice of coping and adaptation measures to the drought hazard in Northwest Balochistan,Pakistan[J].Natural Hazards,2014,73(3):1451-1473.
[22] 何斌,王全九,吴迪,等.基于主成分分析和层次分析法相结合的陕西省农业干旱风险评估[J].干旱地区农业研究,2017,35(1):219-227.
[23] 常文娟,梁忠民,马海波.基于主成分分析的干旱综合指标构建及应用[J].水文,2017,37(1):33-38,82.
[24] Kim S H,Lee M H,Bae D H.Estimation and assessment of natural drought index using principal component analysis[J].Journal of Korea Water Resources Association,2016,49(6):565-577.
[25] 舒晓慧,刘建平.利用主成分回归法处理多重共线性的若干问题[J].统计与决策,2004(10):25-26.
[26] Pearson K.On lines and planes of closest fit to systems of points in space[J].Philosophical Magazine,1901,2(11):559-572.
[27] 赵宗权,周亮广.江淮分水岭地区旱灾风险评估[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(1):370-375.