结构转换提升我国潜在经济增长率的理论逻辑与实现路径
|
摘要
经济增长阶段转换和经济结构的非均质是中国经济发展中的重要特征。本文从潜在经济增长率的概念内涵出发,将结构因素纳入中国潜在经济增长率的计算中发现,中国近年来潜在经济增长率处于下滑状态,这导致实际经济增长下降,需要从结构转换角度改善经济供给面,提升经济增长潜力。基于这一判断,本文从结构转换的同步效应、配置效应和溢出效应归纳了结构转换影响潜在经济增长率的一般性逻辑机理,并分别从要素结构、产业结构、人口结构、城乡结构和区域结构等维度分析了以结构转换提升潜在经济增长率的理论机制,进一步提出了相应的转型路径。
The transformation of economic growth stage and the heterogeneity of economic structure are important features in China's economic development. This paper starts from the conceptual connotation of potential economic growth rate and takes structural factors into the calculation of China's potential economic growth rate. The research finds that China's potential economic growth rate in recent years has been declining, which leaded to a decline in real economic growth. Therefore, we need to improve the economic supply from the perspective of structural transformation and enhance economic growth potential. Based on this judgment, this paper summarizes the general logic mechanism of structural transformation affecting potential economic growth rate from the synchronization effect, configuration effect and spillover effect of structural transformation. Besides, from the perspectives of factor structure, industrial structure, population structure, urban-rural structure and regional structure, the paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of structural transformation to enhance the potential economic growth rate, and further proposes the corresponding transformation path.
The transformation of economic growth stage and the heterogeneity of economic structure are important features in China's economic development. This paper starts from the conceptual connotation of potential economic growth rate and takes structural factors into the calculation of China's potential economic growth rate. The research finds that China's potential economic growth rate in recent years has been declining, which leaded to a decline in real economic growth. Therefore, we need to improve the economic supply from the perspective of structural transformation and enhance economic growth potential. Based on this judgment, this paper summarizes the general logic mechanism of structural transformation affecting potential economic growth rate from the synchronization effect, configuration effect and spillover effect of structural transformation. Besides, from the perspectives of factor structure, industrial structure, population structure, urban-rural structure and regional structure, the paper analyzes the theoretical mechanism of structural transformation to enhance the potential economic growth rate, and further proposes the corresponding transformation path.
引文
[1]沈坤荣,滕永乐.“结构性”减速下的中国经济增长[J].经济学家,2013,(8):29-38.
[2]袁富华.长期增长的“结构性加速”与“结构性减速”:一种解释[J].经济研究,2012,(3):127-140.
[3]郭豫媚,陈彦斌.中国潜在经济增长率的估算及其政策含义:1979—2020[J].经济学动态, 2015,(2):12-18.
[4]HARROD R. F. An Essay in Dynamic Theory[J].The Economic Journal,1939,(49):14-33.
[5]DOMAR, EVSEY D. Capital Expansion,Rate of Growth,and Empolyment[J].Econometrica,1946,14(2):137-147.
[6]郭晗,任保平.结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014,(12):72-84.
[7]BAUMOL W J. Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth:The Anatomy of Urban Crisis[J].American Economic Review,1967, 57(3):415-426.
[8]MAROTO-SáNCHEZ A, CUADRADO-ROURA J R. Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2009, 20(4):254-265.
[9]VINCENTI C D. Baumol's disease, production externalities and productivity effects of intersectoral transfers[J]. Metroeconomica, 2007, 58(3):396-412.
[10]ANDO A, MODIGLIANI F. The“Life Cycle”Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests[J]. American Economic Review, 1963, 53(1):55-84.
[11]LINDH T, MALMBERG B. Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950—1990[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 1999, 12(3):431-449.
(1)本文采用的是省级面板数据加总得出全国的经济增长率,由于各省国内生产总值指数加权综合平均后高于全国的国内生产总值指数,因此本文计算出的实际经济增长率也高于《中国统计年鉴》中的实际经济增长率,但由于本文主要观察实际经济增长率与潜在经济增长率的相对变化趋势,因此这一差别并不影响我们的核心结论。
[2]袁富华.长期增长的“结构性加速”与“结构性减速”:一种解释[J].经济研究,2012,(3):127-140.
[3]郭豫媚,陈彦斌.中国潜在经济增长率的估算及其政策含义:1979—2020[J].经济学动态, 2015,(2):12-18.
[4]HARROD R. F. An Essay in Dynamic Theory[J].The Economic Journal,1939,(49):14-33.
[5]DOMAR, EVSEY D. Capital Expansion,Rate of Growth,and Empolyment[J].Econometrica,1946,14(2):137-147.
[6]郭晗,任保平.结构变动、要素产出弹性与中国潜在经济增长率[J].数量经济技术经济研究, 2014,(12):72-84.
[7]BAUMOL W J. Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth:The Anatomy of Urban Crisis[J].American Economic Review,1967, 57(3):415-426.
[8]MAROTO-SáNCHEZ A, CUADRADO-ROURA J R. Is growth of services an obstacle to productivity growth? A comparative analysis[J]. Structural Change&Economic Dynamics, 2009, 20(4):254-265.
[9]VINCENTI C D. Baumol's disease, production externalities and productivity effects of intersectoral transfers[J]. Metroeconomica, 2007, 58(3):396-412.
[10]ANDO A, MODIGLIANI F. The“Life Cycle”Hypothesis of Saving:Aggregate Implications and Tests[J]. American Economic Review, 1963, 53(1):55-84.
[11]LINDH T, MALMBERG B. Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950—1990[J]. Journal of Population Economics, 1999, 12(3):431-449.
(1)本文采用的是省级面板数据加总得出全国的经济增长率,由于各省国内生产总值指数加权综合平均后高于全国的国内生产总值指数,因此本文计算出的实际经济增长率也高于《中国统计年鉴》中的实际经济增长率,但由于本文主要观察实际经济增长率与潜在经济增长率的相对变化趋势,因此这一差别并不影响我们的核心结论。