气候变化、林火和营林措施对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响
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摘要
生态弹性是森林生态系统在遭受外在扰动后恢复到稳定状态的能力,是森林资源可持续发展的重要目标之一,且森林生态弹性对诸如气候变化、林火和营林措施等外部因子的影响较为敏感.探究这些外部因子对森林生态弹性的影响在未来森林生态系统管理方面有重要意义.本研究首先从森林组成、结构和功能等方面选取指标因子并估算了森林生态弹性值,然后运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化、林火干扰和营林措施等对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响,并探讨了当前抚育采伐方案在未来气候下的可持续性.结果表明:模型初始化的2000年林分密度和胸高断面积与2000年真实景观较为吻合,模拟的2010年森林景观与野外调查数据无明显差异,基于当前林火干扰状况的模拟结果与火烧迹地调查数据基本匹配,说明林火模块能很好地模拟当前研究区林火发生状况.林火干扰增加30%将会使该区模拟期内景观水平上森林生态弹性提高15.7%～40.8%,而林火干扰增加200%则会降低该区4.4%～24.6%的森林生态弹性.短期和中期林火干扰增加对森林生态弹性的影响大于气候变化的影响.与当前预案相比,B1气候(林火增加30%预案)和A2气候(林火增加200%预案)对整个模拟阶段景观尺度森林生态弹性的影响分别处于-15.9%～38.9%和-60.4%～34.8%范围内.与无采伐预案相比,B1和A2气候下在整个模拟时期内若继续实施当前抚育采伐方案,将不利于景观水平森林生态弹性的提高.在B1气候(林火增加30%预案)下,在各模拟时期内无需实施任何营林措施;而在A2气候(林火增加200%预案)下,建议实施中、高强度种植的营林措施以提升景观水平森林生态弹性.
Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of-15.9%-38.9% and-60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.
Ecological resilience is characterized by the recovery capacity of forest ecosystem from a status affected by external disturbance to a stable status, which is one of the important targets for sustainable development of forests. Ecological resilience is sensitive to external factors, such as climate change, forest fire, and silvicutural management at large scales. Understanding the effects of those factors on ecological resilience is important for forest ecosystem management. In this study, we calculated ecological resilience with indicators including forest structure, composition and function. We used a landscape model LANDIS PRO to evaluate the effects of climate change, climate-induced fire, and silvicultural management on ecological resilience in boreal forests. We also evaluated whether the current thinning treatment could be implemented under the scenarios of climate change. The results showed that the initialized stand density and basal area from the year 2000 could represent the real forest landscape in year 2000, with no significant difference between the simulated landscape and the forest inventory data in the year 2010 at landscape scale. The results of simulated fire disturbance were consistent with the results from the field inventories in burned areas. The fire module parameters set adequately represented the current fire regimes in model simulation. The ecological resilience could increase by 15.7%-40.8% at landscape scale when fire intensity increased by 30%, whereas the ecological resilience decreased by 4.4%-24.6% when fire intensity increased by 200%. At the short and medium term, the effects of increased fire on forest ecological resilience were greater than that of climate change. Compared to the current base scenario, forest ecological resilience under B1 climate with fire intensity increased by 30% scenario and A2 climate with fire intensity increased by 200% scenario fluctuated in the ranges of-15.9%-38.9% and-60.4%-34.8% in the whole simulation period at landscape scale. Compared to no harvesting scenario, the current thinning strategy would decrease the ecological resilience at landscape scale under both B1 and A2 scenarios in all simulated periods. Under the scenario of B1 climate with 30% increases of fire intensity, no silvicultural management would be needed in the whole simulation period at landscape scale, whereas medium and high intensity of silvicultural management were suggested under the scenario of A2 climate with 200% increase of fire intensity.
引文
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[2] Lenoir J,Gégout J,Marquet P,et al.A significant upward shift in plant species optimum elevation during the 20th century.Science,2008,320:1768-1771
[3] Cheng X-X (程肖侠),Yan X-D (延晓冬).Effects of global climate change on forest succession in Daxinganling of Northeast China.Chinese Journal of Ecology (生态学杂志),2007,26(8):1277-1284 (in Chinese)
[4] Boby LA,Schuur EA,Mack MC,et al.Quantifying fire severity,carbon,and nitrogen emissions in Alaska’s boreal forest.Ecological Applications,2010,20:1633-1647
[5] Wang CK,Gower ST,Wang Y,et al.The influence of fire on carbon distribution and net primary production of boreal Larix gmelinii forests in north-eastern China.Global Change Biology,2001,7:719-730
[6] Li F (李峰),Zhou G-S (周广胜),Cao M-C (曹铭昌).Responses of Larix gmelinii geographical distribution to future climate change:A simulation study.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2006,17(12):2255-2260 (in Chinese)
[7] Yan X-D (延晓冬),Zhao S-D (赵士洞),Yu Z-L (于振良).Modeling growth and succession of Northeastern China forests and its applications in global change studies.Chinese Journal of Plant Ecology (植物生态学报),2000,24(1):1-8 (in Chinese)
[8] Dale VH,Joyce LA,McNulty S,et al.Climate change and forest disturbances.Bioscience,2001,51:723-734
[9] Flannigan MD,Logan KA,Amiro BD,et al.Future area burned in Canada.Climatic Change,2005,72:1-16
[10] Wotton BM,Nock CA,Flannigan MD.Forest fire occurrence and climate change in Canada.International Journal of Wildland Fire,2010,19:253-271
[11] Wang M-Y (王明玉).Characteristics of Forest Fire Response and Trend under the Scenarios of Climate Change in China.PhD Thesis.Beijing:Chinese Academy of Forestry,2009 (in Chinese)
[12] Holling CS.Resilience and stability of ecological systems.Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics,1973,4:1-23
[13] Yan H-M (闫海明),Zhan J-Y (战金艳),Zhang T (张韬).Review of ecosystem resilience research progress.Progress in Geography (地理科学进展),2012,31(3):303-314 (in Chinese)
[14] Webb CT.What is the role of ecology in understanding ecosystem resilience?BioScience,2007,57:470-471
[15] Cui S-H (崔胜辉),Li X-Q (李旋旗),Li Y (李扬),et al.Review on adaptation in the perspective of global change.Progress in Geography (地理科学进展),2011,30(9):1088-1098 (in Chinese)
[16] Yang G,Di XY,Zeng T,et al.Prediction of area burned under climatic change scenarios:A case study in the Great Xing’an Mountains boreal forest.Journal of Forestry Research,2010,21:213-218
[17] Zhao F-J (赵凤君),Shu L-F (舒立福),Tian X-R (田晓瑞),et al.The changes of forest fuel dryness conditions under global warming in Inner Mongolia Daxing’an ling forest region.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2009,29(4):1914-1920 (in Chinese)
[18] Chapin F,McGuire A,Ruess R,et al.Resilience of Alaska’s boreal forest to climatic change.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2010,40:1360-1370
[19] Turner MG.Disturbance and landscape dynamic in a changing world.Ecology,2010,91:2833-2849
[20] von Gadow K.Managing Forest Ecosystems:The Challenge of Climate Change.Dordrecht:Springer,2008
[21] Hu H-F (胡会峰),Liu G-H (刘国华).Roles of forest management in global carbon dioxide mitigation.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2006,17(10):709-714 (in Chinese)
[22] Mu C-C (牟长城),Lu H-C (卢慧翠),Bao X (包旭),et al.Effects of selective cutting on vegetation carbon storage of boreal Larix gmelinii-Carex schmidtii forested wetlands in Daxing’anling,China.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2013,33(17):5286-5298 (in Chinese)
[23] Bu R,He HS,Hu YM,et al.Using the LANDIS model to evaluate forest harvesting and planting strategies under possible warming climates in Northeastern China.Forest Ecology and Management,2008,254:407-419
[24] Bormann BT,Haynes RW,Martin JR.Adaptive mana-gement of forest ecosystems:Did some rubber hit the road?BioScience,2007,57:186-191
[25] Heinimann HR.A concept in adaptive ecosystem mana-gement:An engineering perspective.Forest Ecology and Management,2010,259:848-856
[26] Virah-Sawmy M,Gillson L,Willis KJ.How does spatial heterogeneity influence resilience to climatic change?Ecological dynamics in southeast Madagascar.Ecological Monographs,2009,79:557-574
[27] He HS,Mladenoff DJ,Gustafson EJ,et al.Study of landscape change under forest harvesting and climate warming-induced fire disturbance.Forest Ecology and Management,2002,155:257-270
[28] Aber J,Neilson RP,Mcnulty S,et al.Forest processes and global environmental change:Predicting the effects of individual and multiple stressors.Bioscience,2001,51:735-751
[29] Gustafson EJ,Shvidenko AZ,Sturtevant BR,et al.Predicting global change effects on forest biomass and composition in south-central Siberia.Ecological Applications,2010,20:700-715
[30] Chertov O,Bhatti JS,Komarov A,et al.Influence of climate change,fire and harvest on the carbon dynamics of black spruce in Central Canada.Forest Ecology and Management,2009,257:941-950
[31] Rogers CE,McCarty JP.Climate change and ecosystems of the Mid-Atlantic Region.Climate Research,2000,14:235-244
[32] Xu C,Güneralp B,Gertner GZ,et al.Elasticity and loop analyses:Tools for understanding forest landscape response to climatic change in spatial dynamic models.Landscape Ecology,2010,25:855-871
[33] Gao J-B (高江波),Zhao Z-Q (赵志强),Li S-C (李双成).Evaluation of ecosystem resilience in the regions across Qinghai-Tibet railway based on GIS.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2008,19(11):2473-2479 (in Chinese)
[34] Seidl R,Rammer W,Spies TA.Disturbance legacies increase the resilience of forest ecosystem structure,composition,and functioning.Ecological Applications,2014,24:2063-2077
[35] Zhan J-Y (战金艳),Yan H-M (闫海明),Deng X-Z (邓祥征),et al.Assessment of forest ecosystem resilience in Lianhua Country of Jiangxi Province.Journal of Natural Resources (自然资源学报),2012,27(8):1304-1315 (in Chinese)
[36] Kane VR,Gersonde RF,Lutz JA,et al.Patch dynami-cs and the development of structural and spatial heterogeneity in Pacific Northwest forests.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2011,41:2276-2291
[37] Hu H-Q (胡海清),Luo B-Z (罗碧珍),Wei S-J (魏书精),et al.Estimating biological carbon storage of five typical forest types in the Daxing’anling Mountains,Heilongjiang,China.Acta Ecologica Sinica (生态学报),2015,35(17):5745-5760 (in Chinese)
[38] Huang C (黄超),He H-S (贺红士),Liang Y (梁宇),et al.Effects of climate change,fire and harvest on carbon storage of boreal forests in the Great Xing’an Mountains,China.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2018,29(7):2088-2100 (in Chinese)
[39] Van Mantgem PJ,Stephenson NL,Byrne JC,et al.Widespread increase of tree mortality rates in the western United States.Science,2009,323:521-524
[40] He HS,Hao ZQ,Mladenoff DJ,et al.Simulating forest ecosystem response to climate warming incorporating spatial effects in north-eastern China.Journal of Biogeo-graphy,2005,32:2043-2056
[41] Yang J,He HS,Shifley SR.Spatial controls of occurrence and spread of wildfires in the Missouri Ozark Highlands.Ecological Applications,2008,18:1212-1225
[42] Fraser JS,He HS,Shifley SR,et al.Simulating stand-level harvest prescriptions across landscapes:LANDIS PRO harvest module design.Canadian Journal of Forest Research,2013,43:972-978
[43] Li X-N (李晓娜),He H-S (贺红士),Wu Z-W (吴志伟),et al.Responses of boreal forest landscape in northern Great Xing’an Mountains of Northeast China to climate change.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2012,23(12):3227-3235 (in Chinese)
[44] Wang X-G (王绪高),Li X-Z (李秀珍),He H-S (贺红士),et al.Long-term effects of different planting proportion on forest landscape in Great Hing’anling Mountains after the catastrophic fire in 1987.Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology (应用生态学报),2006,17(5):855-861(in Chinese)
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