中国一级流域年气温的时空变化特征
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摘要
气温的差异是造成自然景观和生态环境差异的主要因素之一。本研究采用全国一级流域735个气象站点1951—2013年气温资料,利用相对差分法、Hurst指数等方法对年气温的时空变化特征进行分析。结果表明:全国年气温总体呈显著升高趋势,但长江区中部年气温变化不显著。全国、辽河、海河、淮河、黄河、长江、西南诸河、东南诸河和珠江区均存在区域年气温的最佳代表性气象站点,分别为铁干里克、彰武、乐亭、菏泽、海源、井冈山、加查、武夷山市和柳州。代表性气象站点的年气温可以用以快速评估流域年气温均值的变化特征。全国一级流域年气温变化的主周期大致为25～28年。近20～30年是研究期内的偏暖期,Hurst指数分析表明在未来相当长一段时期内,全国绝大部分地区的气温会呈现为升高趋势。"哈尔滨-北京-石家庄-西安-重庆-贵阳"连线附近年气温与年降水量主要呈(极)显著负相关关系,该连线接近于"胡焕庸线","胡焕庸线"附近的气候研究对中国生态环境保护和"一带一路"倡议具有重要意义。
Temperature is one of the main factors causing the difference between the natural landscape and the ecological environment. Based on the annual temperature data of 735 meteorological stations during the period from 1951 to 2013 in China's first-level basin, the relative difference method, Hurst index and other methods were employed to identify the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual temperature. The results illustrated that the annual temperature in China generally showed a significant upward trend, but the annual temperature in the middle of the Yangtze River region did not change significantly. The whole China, Liao River, Hai River and Huai River, Yellow River, Yangtze River, Southwest River, Southeast River, and Pearl River region all existed the best representative meteorological sites for annual temperature. The best representative meteorological sites were Tieganlike, Zhangwu, Laoting, Heze, Haiyuan,Jinggangshan, Jiacha, Wuyishan, and Liuzhou, respectively. The main period of annual temperature change in first-level basin regions in China is approximately 40～50 years. The last 20～30 years were the warmer period, Hurst index analysis showed that the temperature will continue to rise in future for the most parts of China. The annual temperature and the annual precipitation near the connection of "Harbin-Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Xi'an-Chongqing-Guiyang"exhibited a(highly)significant negative correlation. The connection is close to"Hu Line."The study of the climate near"Hu Line"is of great significance to the ecological environment protection and the Belt and Road strategy of our country. The Hurst index analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis of the annual temperature series demonstrate that the best representative meteorological stations can reflect the regional annual temperature trends and major cyclical changes. The method of estimating the annual average temperature of a region using the annual temperature of a representative meteorological site is meaningful. The method is also of great significance for rapid assessment of regional mean annual precipitation and scaling scales.
Temperature is one of the main factors causing the difference between the natural landscape and the ecological environment. Based on the annual temperature data of 735 meteorological stations during the period from 1951 to 2013 in China's first-level basin, the relative difference method, Hurst index and other methods were employed to identify the temporal and spatial variation characteristics of annual temperature. The results illustrated that the annual temperature in China generally showed a significant upward trend, but the annual temperature in the middle of the Yangtze River region did not change significantly. The whole China, Liao River, Hai River and Huai River, Yellow River, Yangtze River, Southwest River, Southeast River, and Pearl River region all existed the best representative meteorological sites for annual temperature. The best representative meteorological sites were Tieganlike, Zhangwu, Laoting, Heze, Haiyuan,Jinggangshan, Jiacha, Wuyishan, and Liuzhou, respectively. The main period of annual temperature change in first-level basin regions in China is approximately 40～50 years. The last 20～30 years were the warmer period, Hurst index analysis showed that the temperature will continue to rise in future for the most parts of China. The annual temperature and the annual precipitation near the connection of "Harbin-Beijing-Shijiazhuang-Xi'an-Chongqing-Guiyang"exhibited a(highly)significant negative correlation. The connection is close to"Hu Line."The study of the climate near"Hu Line"is of great significance to the ecological environment protection and the Belt and Road strategy of our country. The Hurst index analysis, Mann-Kendall test, and Morlet wavelet analysis of the annual temperature series demonstrate that the best representative meteorological stations can reflect the regional annual temperature trends and major cyclical changes. The method of estimating the annual average temperature of a region using the annual temperature of a representative meteorological site is meaningful. The method is also of great significance for rapid assessment of regional mean annual precipitation and scaling scales.
引文
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[9]叶笃正,符淙斌.全球变化的主要科学问题[J].大气科学,1995,18(5):598-513.[Ye D Z,Fu C B.Major issues of global change sciences[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1995,18(5):598-513.]
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[14]Grayson R B,Western A W.Towards areal estimation of soil water content from point measurements:time and space stability of mean411response[J].Journal of Hydrology,1998,207(1-2):68-82.
[15]Brocca L,Melone F,Moramarco T,et al.Soil moisture temporal stability over experimental areas in Central Italy[J].Geoderma,2009,148(3):364-374.
[16]Wei H,Shao M G,Reichardt K.Using a new criterion to identify sites for mean soil water storage evaluation[J].Science Society of America Journal,2010,74(3):762-773.
[17]Xu G,Ren Z,Li P,et al.Temporal persistence and stability of soil water storage after rainfall on terrace land[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,DOI:10.1007/s12665-016-5780-5.
[18]Xu G,Li Z,Li P.Spatial Patterns and Stability of Soil Water Content in Forested Slope and Terraced Area on the Loess Plateau,China[C].Vienna Austria:EGU General Assembly Conference,2016.
[19]高歌,许崇育.1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):380-391.[Gao G,Xu C Y.Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961-2010[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(3):380-391.]
[20]徐国策,刘海波,申震洲,等.洛惠渠灌区地下水电导率时间稳定性分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(10):115-121.[Xu G C,Liu H B,Shen Z Z,et al.Temporal stability of groundwater electrical conductivity in Luohuiqu irrigation district[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(10):115-121.]
[21]Li X.The wavelet estimation of Hurst coefficient in hydrological time series[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1999,30(8):21-25.
[22]Xie P,Chen G,Lei H.Hydrological alteration analysis method based on Hurst coefficient[J].Journal of Basic Science&Engineering,2009,17(1):32-39.
[23]徐新良,王靓,蔡红艳.“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家气候变化特征[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1742-1753.[Xu X L,Wang L,Cai H Y.Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Resources Science,2016,38(9):1742-1753].
[24]Grossmann A,Morlet J.Decomposition of hardy functions into square integrable wavelets of constant shape[J].Siam Journal on Mathematical Analysis,1984,15(4):723-736.
[25]Nielsen D R,Bouma J.Soil Spatial Variability[M].Wageningen:Pudoc,1985.
[26]郭渠,孙卫国,程炳岩,等.重庆市气温变化趋势及其可能原因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(6):646-656.[Guo Q,Sun WG,Cheng B Y,et al.The trend of temperature variation and its possible causes in Chongqing[J].Meteorological and Environmental Research,2009,14(6):646-656.]
[27]胡焕庸.中国人口之分布-附统计表与密度图[J].地理学报,1935,(2):33-74.[Hu H Y.Distribution of China's population:with statistical tables and density maps[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1935,(2):33-74.]
[28]陈明星,李扬,龚颖华,等.胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势-尝试回答李克强总理之问[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):179-193.[Chen M X,Li Y,Gong Y H,et al.The population distribution and trend of urbanization pattern on two sides of Hu Huanyong population line:a tentative response to Premier Li Keqiang[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,71(2):179-193.]
[29]王铮,张丕远,周清波.历史气候变化对中国社会发展的影响:兼论人地关系[J].地理学报,1996,(4):329-339.[Wang Z,Zhang P Y,Zhou Q B.The impacts of climate on the society of China during historical times[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1996,(4):329-339.]
[30]Wu J.Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China[J].Journal of Historical Geography,2011,37(1):12-21.
[31]王铮,乐群,夏海斌,等.中国2050:气候情景与胡焕庸线的稳定性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2016,46(11):1505-1514.[Wang Z,Yue Q,Xia H B,et al.China 2050:climate scenarios and stability of Hu-line[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,2016,46(11):1505-1514.]
[2]任国玉,初子莹,周雅清,等.中国气温变化研究最新进展[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):701-716.[Ren G Y,Chu Z Y,Zhou Y Q,et al.Recent progresses in studies of regional temperature changes in China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):701-716.]
[3]王绍武.近百年我国及全球气温变化趋势[J].气象,1990,16(2):11-15.[Wang S W.Variations of temperature in China for the100 years period in comparison with global temperatures[J].Meteorological Monthly,1990,16(2):11-15.]
[4]唐国利,任国玉.近百年中国地表气温变化趋势的再分析[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):791-798.[Tang G L,Ren G Y.Reanalysis of surface air temperature change of the last 100 years over China[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):791-798.]
[5]任国玉,徐铭志,初子莹,等.近54年中国地面气温变化[J].气候与环境研究,2005,10(4):717-727.[Ren G Y,Xu M Z,Chu ZY,et al.Changes of surface air temperature in China during 1951-2004[J].Climatic and Environmental Research,2005,10(4):717-727.]
[6]秦大河,Thomas Stocker,259名作者和TSU(驻伯尔尼和北京).IPCC第五次评估报告第一工作组报告的亮点结论[J].气候变化研究进展,2014,10(1):1-6.[Qin D H,Stocker T,259 Author and TSU(Bern&Beijing).Highlights of the IPCC working group Ififth assessment report[J].Progressus Inquisitiones De Mutatione Climatis,2014,10(1):1-6.]
[7]董磊华,熊立华,于坤霞,等.气候变化与人类活动対水文影响的研究进展[J].水科学进展,2012,23(2):278-285.[Dong L H,Xiong L H,Yu K X,et al.Research advances in effects of climate change and human activities on hydrology[J].Advances in Water Science,2012,23(2):278-285.]
[8]宋连春.近40年我国气温时空变化特征[J].应用气象学报,1994,5(1):119-124.[Song L C.Characteristics of temperature in spatial and temporal variation in China during recent 40 years[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,1994,5(1):119-124.]
[9]叶笃正,符淙斌.全球变化的主要科学问题[J].大气科学,1995,18(5):598-513.[Ye D Z,Fu C B.Major issues of global change sciences[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences,1995,18(5):598-513.]
[10]IPCC.Climate Change 2013:The Physical Science Basis,the Summary for Policymakers of the Working Group I Contribution to the Fifth Assessment Report[M].New York:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[11]史印山,王玉珍,池俊成,等.河北平原气候变化对冬小麦产量的影响[J].中国生态农业学报,2008,16(6):1444-1447.[Shi YS,Wang Y Z,Chi J C,et al.Impact of climate change on winter wheat production in the Hebei Plain[J].Chinese Journal of EcoAgriculture,2008,16(6):1444-1447.]
[12]叶笃正.人类活动引起的全球性气候变化及其对我国自然、生态、经济和社会发展的可能影响[J].中国科学院院刊,1986,(2):18-26.[Ye D Z.Global climate change caused by human activities and its possible impact on China's natural,ecological,economic and social development[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,1986,(2):18-26.]
[13]Vachaud G,Silans A P D,Balabanis P,et al.Temporal stability of spatially measured soil water probability density function[J].Soil Science Society of America Journal,1985,49(4):822-828.
[14]Grayson R B,Western A W.Towards areal estimation of soil water content from point measurements:time and space stability of mean411response[J].Journal of Hydrology,1998,207(1-2):68-82.
[15]Brocca L,Melone F,Moramarco T,et al.Soil moisture temporal stability over experimental areas in Central Italy[J].Geoderma,2009,148(3):364-374.
[16]Wei H,Shao M G,Reichardt K.Using a new criterion to identify sites for mean soil water storage evaluation[J].Science Society of America Journal,2010,74(3):762-773.
[17]Xu G,Ren Z,Li P,et al.Temporal persistence and stability of soil water storage after rainfall on terrace land[J].Environmental Earth Sciences,2016,DOI:10.1007/s12665-016-5780-5.
[18]Xu G,Li Z,Li P.Spatial Patterns and Stability of Soil Water Content in Forested Slope and Terraced Area on the Loess Plateau,China[C].Vienna Austria:EGU General Assembly Conference,2016.
[19]高歌,许崇育.1961-2010年中国十大流域水分盈亏量时空变化特征[J].地理学报,2015,70(3):380-391.[Gao G,Xu C Y.Characteristics of water surplus and deficit change in 10 major river basins in China during 1961-2010[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2015,70(3):380-391.]
[20]徐国策,刘海波,申震洲,等.洛惠渠灌区地下水电导率时间稳定性分析[J].农业工程学报,2015,31(10):115-121.[Xu G C,Liu H B,Shen Z Z,et al.Temporal stability of groundwater electrical conductivity in Luohuiqu irrigation district[J].Transactions of the Chinese Society of Agricultural Engineering,2015,31(10):115-121.]
[21]Li X.The wavelet estimation of Hurst coefficient in hydrological time series[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,1999,30(8):21-25.
[22]Xie P,Chen G,Lei H.Hydrological alteration analysis method based on Hurst coefficient[J].Journal of Basic Science&Engineering,2009,17(1):32-39.
[23]徐新良,王靓,蔡红艳.“丝绸之路经济带”沿线主要国家气候变化特征[J].资源科学,2016,38(9):1742-1753.[Xu X L,Wang L,Cai H Y.Spatio-temporal characteristics of climate change in the Silk Road Economic Belt[J].Resources Science,2016,38(9):1742-1753].
[24]Grossmann A,Morlet J.Decomposition of hardy functions into square integrable wavelets of constant shape[J].Siam Journal on Mathematical Analysis,1984,15(4):723-736.
[25]Nielsen D R,Bouma J.Soil Spatial Variability[M].Wageningen:Pudoc,1985.
[26]郭渠,孙卫国,程炳岩,等.重庆市气温变化趋势及其可能原因分析[J].气候与环境研究,2009,14(6):646-656.[Guo Q,Sun WG,Cheng B Y,et al.The trend of temperature variation and its possible causes in Chongqing[J].Meteorological and Environmental Research,2009,14(6):646-656.]
[27]胡焕庸.中国人口之分布-附统计表与密度图[J].地理学报,1935,(2):33-74.[Hu H Y.Distribution of China's population:with statistical tables and density maps[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1935,(2):33-74.]
[28]陈明星,李扬,龚颖华,等.胡焕庸线两侧的人口分布与城镇化格局趋势-尝试回答李克强总理之问[J].地理学报,2016,71(2):179-193.[Chen M X,Li Y,Gong Y H,et al.The population distribution and trend of urbanization pattern on two sides of Hu Huanyong population line:a tentative response to Premier Li Keqiang[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2016,71(2):179-193.]
[29]王铮,张丕远,周清波.历史气候变化对中国社会发展的影响:兼论人地关系[J].地理学报,1996,(4):329-339.[Wang Z,Zhang P Y,Zhou Q B.The impacts of climate on the society of China during historical times[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1996,(4):329-339.]
[30]Wu J.Agent-based simulation of the spatial evolution of the historical population in China[J].Journal of Historical Geography,2011,37(1):12-21.
[31]王铮,乐群,夏海斌,等.中国2050:气候情景与胡焕庸线的稳定性[J].中国科学:地球科学,2016,46(11):1505-1514.[Wang Z,Yue Q,Xia H B,et al.China 2050:climate scenarios and stability of Hu-line[J].Scientia Sinica Terrae,2016,46(11):1505-1514.]