近59年广西气象要素时空变化特征分析
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摘要
基于广西25个气象台站1958-2016年的气象资料,采用Daniel趋势检验法、Lee-Heghinan变异检验法、Morlet小波分析法、R/S分析法和克里金插值等方法,对广西年日照时数、年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度和年平均气温的时空变化进行了分析。结果表明:近59年广西年日照时数、年平均风速和年平均相对湿度呈减小趋势,年降水量和年平均气温表现出微弱增加趋势;各气象要素分别在1979年、1974年、2011年、2002年和1997年发生变异;各气象要素均表现出多时间尺度耦合的复杂特性,第一主周期分别为22a、29a、31a、26a和13a;各气象要素的Hurst指数均大于0.5,说明未来变化趋势将继续与过去变化趋势保持一致;在空间上,广西年日照时数由西北向东南递减,年平均风速、年降水量、年平均相对湿度和年平均气温由北向南递增。
Based on the meteorological data of 25 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1958 to 2016,we adopted Daniel trend test method,Lee-Heghinan test,Morlet wavelet analysis,R/S analysis,and Kriging interpolation to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the sunshine duration,wind speed,precipitation,relative humidity,and temperature data in Guangxi.The results showed that in the past 59 years,the annual sunshine duration,annual average wind speed,and annual average relative humidity showed a decreasing trend;the annual precipitation and annual average temperature showed a slight rising trend;these factors respectively had abrupt changes in 1979,1974,2011,2002 and 1997;they all showed the complex characteristic of multi-time scale coupling,and their first main periods were 22 a,29a,31 a,26aand 13 a,respectively;the Hurst indexes of these meteorological factors were all greater than 0.5,indicating that the future trend will still be consistent with the past trend.In space,the annual sunshine duration in Guangxi declined from the northwest to the southeast,whereas the annual average wind speed,annual precipitation,annual average relative humidity,and annual average temperature showed a rising trend from north to south.
Based on the meteorological data of 25 meteorological stations in Guangxi from 1958 to 2016,we adopted Daniel trend test method,Lee-Heghinan test,Morlet wavelet analysis,R/S analysis,and Kriging interpolation to analyze the spatial and temporal variations of the sunshine duration,wind speed,precipitation,relative humidity,and temperature data in Guangxi.The results showed that in the past 59 years,the annual sunshine duration,annual average wind speed,and annual average relative humidity showed a decreasing trend;the annual precipitation and annual average temperature showed a slight rising trend;these factors respectively had abrupt changes in 1979,1974,2011,2002 and 1997;they all showed the complex characteristic of multi-time scale coupling,and their first main periods were 22 a,29a,31 a,26aand 13 a,respectively;the Hurst indexes of these meteorological factors were all greater than 0.5,indicating that the future trend will still be consistent with the past trend.In space,the annual sunshine duration in Guangxi declined from the northwest to the southeast,whereas the annual average wind speed,annual precipitation,annual average relative humidity,and annual average temperature showed a rising trend from north to south.
引文
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[23]曾晟轩,顾娟,贺缠生.西北农牧交错带中部气候变化特征及其持续性[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):356-364.(ZHENG S X,GU J,HE C S.Variability and persistence of climate in the agricultural pastoral transitional zone in the central part of the northwest China[J].Research of soil and water conservation,2018,25(4):356-364.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2018.04.052.
[24]王怀清,殷剑敏,孔萍,等.鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(7):1215-1220.(WANG H Q,YIN J M,KONG P,et al.Variation of drought and flood over the last millennium in poyang lake basin by R/S analysis[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(7):1215-1220.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201507019.
[25]邱海军,曹明明,胡胜,等.近60a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究[J].地球与环境,2014,42(1):17-23.(QIU H J,CAO M M,HU S,et al.Susceptibility and periodicity of flood disasters since the1950sin China[J].EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT,2014,42(1):17-23.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14050/j.cnki.1672-9250.2014.01.015.
[26] INESON S,SCAIFE A A,KNIGHT J R,et al.Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4(11):753-757.DOI:10.1038/ngeo1282.
[2] IPCC.Climate change 2007:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK and New York,NY:Cambridge University Press,2007.
[3] IPCC.Climate change 2013:The Physical Science Basis.Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change[M].Cambridge,UK and New York,NY:Cambridge University Press,2013.
[4] TAO F,YOKOZAWA M,XU Y,et al.Climate changes and trends in phenology and yields of field crops in China,1981-2000[J].Agricultural and Forest Meteorology,2006,138:82-92.DOI:10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.014.
[5]叶瑜,苏永秀,李政,等.近50年广西日照时数时空变化特征分析[J].中国农学通报,2013,29(14):196-201.(YE Y,SU Y X,LI Z,et al.The analysis on sunshine duration spatial and temporal variations over Guangxi in recent 50years[J].Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin,2013,29(14):196-201.(in Chinese)).
[6]孙桂凯,佘璇,高沫,等.广西极端连续降水变化趋势及周期性研究[J].水电能源科学,2018,36(2):6-9.(SUN G K,SHE X,GAO M,et al.Research on variation trend and periodicity of extreme continuous precipitation in Guangxi[J].Water Research and Power,2018,36(2):6-9.(in Chinese)).
[7]谢坤坚,卢远,蔡卓杰,等.广西降雨侵蚀力时空变化分析[J].中国水土保持SWCC,2016(12):50-54.(XIE K J,LU Y,CAI Z J,et al.Temporal and spatial variation analysis of rainfall erosivity in Guangxi[J].Soil and Water Conservation in China,2016(12):50-54.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14123/j.cnki.swcc.2016.0336.
[8]孙桂凯,高沫,黄亚,等.广西近50年降水结构时空变化特征分析[J].水电能源科学,2016,34(9):1-4.(SUN G K,GAO M,HUANG Y,et al.Spatial temporal variations of precipitation characteristics in Gunagxi over the last 50years[J].Water Research and Power,2016,34(9):1-4.(in Chinese)).
[9]叶金印,黄勇,张春莉,等.近50年淮河流域气候变化时空特征分析[J].生态环境学报,2016,25(1):84-91.(YE J Y,HUANG Y,ZHANG C L,et al.Spatial-temporal variations of climate change of the Huaihe River Basin during recent 50years[J].Ecology and Environmental Sciences,2016,25(1):84-91.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2014.11.027.
[10]伍红雨,杜尧东,潘蔚娟.近48年华南日照时数的变化特征[J].中山大学学报(自然科学版),2011,50(6):120-129.(WU H Y,DU Y D,PAN W J.The change characteristics of sunshine duration during the past 48years in South China,2011,50(6):120-129.(in Chinese)).
[11]周绍毅,徐圣璇,黄飞,等.广西农业气候资源的长期变化特征[J].中国农学通报,2015,27(27):168-173.(ZHOU S Y,XU S X,HUANG F,et al.Secular variation features of agricultural climate resources in Guangxi[J].Arid Zone Research,2015,32(6):1088-1096.(in Chinese)).
[12]闫军辉,张向敏,周红升,等.1951-2015年河南省温度变化研究[J].干旱区资源与环境,2017,31(7):102-107.(YAN J H,ZHANG X M,ZHOU H S.Annual temperature variations in Henan during the period of1951-2015[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2017,31(7):102-107.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13448/j.cnki.jalre.2017.220.
[13]张扬,白红英,苏凯,等.1960-2013年秦岭陕西段南北坡极端气温变化空间差异[J].地理学报,2018,73(7):1296-1308.(ZHANG Y,BAI H Y,SU K,et al.Spatial variation of extreme temperature change on southern and northern slopes of Shaanxi section in Qinling Mountains during 1960-2013[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2018,73(7):1296-1308.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11821/dlxb201807009.
[14]吴丹瑞,耿欣欣,李明.呼伦湖流域近55年气候变化特征[J].水土保持研究,2016,23(6):174-178.(WU D R,GENG X X,LI M.Characteristics of climatic changes in Hulun Lake Basin in recent 55years.[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2016,23(6):174-178.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2016.06.022.
[15]王景才,郭佳香,徐蛟,等.近55年淮河上中游流域气象要素多时间尺度演变特征及关联性分析[J].地理科学,2017,37(4):611-619.(WANG J C,GUO J X,XU J,et al.Multi-time scales change characteristics and relationship of meteorological variables in the upper and middle regions of the Huaihe River Basin in recent 55years[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2017,37(4):611-619.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2017.04.015.
[16]王莉,胥鹏海,宋涛,等.沣河水质变化趋势及原因分析[J].西北大学学报(自然科学版),2011,41(3):503-506.(WANG L,XU P H,SONG T,et al.Variation tendency of water quality and its causing effect of the Fenghe River[J].Journal of Northwest University(Natural Science Edition),2011,41(3):503-506.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16152/j.cnki.xdxbzr.2011.03.018.
[17]王双银,谢萍萍,穆兴民,等.松花江干流输沙量变化特征分析[J].泥沙研究,2011(4):67-72.(WANG S Y,XIE P P,MU X M,et al.Analysis of variation of annual sediment loads in Songhua River[J].Journal of Sediment Research,2011(4):67-72.(in Chinese))DOI:10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2011.04.006.
[18]史红玲,胡春宏,王延贵,等.淮河流域水沙变化趋势及其成因分析[J].水利学报,2012,43(5):571-579.(SHI H L,HU C H,WANG Y G,et al.Variation trend and cause of runoff and sediment load variations in Huaihe River[J].Journal of Hydraulic Engineering,2012,43(5):571-579.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2012.05.007.
[19]何睿,庞博,张兰影.基于水文变异诊断系统的黑河流域上中游径流序列变异[J].生态学杂志,2015,34(7):1937-1942.(HE R,PANG B,ZAHNG L Y.Hydrological alteration diagnosis of runoff series in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River Basin[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2015,34(7):1937-1942.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.20150612.012.
[20]刘剑宇,张强,顾西辉.水文变异条件下鄱阳湖流域的生态流量[J].生态学报,2015,35(16):5477-5485.(LIU J Y,ZHANG Q,GU X H.Evaluation of ecological flow with considerations of hydrological alterations in the Poyang Lake basin[J].ACTA ECOLOGICA SINICA,2015,35(16):5477-5485.(in Chinese))DOI:10.5846/stxb201404080664.
[21]韩知明,贾克力,杨芳,等.基于Morlet小波的呼伦湖流域降水多时间尺度分析[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(1):160-166.(HAN Z M,JIA K L,YANG F,et al.Analysis on multi time scale yearly precipitation of Hulun Lake watershed based on wavelet Morlet analysis[J].Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2018,25(1):160-166.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2018.01.026.
[22]邢贞相,闫丹丹,刘美鑫,等.三江平原近60年降水量时空变异特征分析[J].农业机械学报,2015,46(11):337-343.(XING Z X,YAN D D,LIU M X,et al.Spatiotemporal variability analysis of annual precipitation in Sanjiang plain in recent sixty years[J].Journal of agricultural machinery,2015,46(11):337-343.(inChinese))DOI:10.6041/j.issn.1000-1298.2015.11.046.
[23]曾晟轩,顾娟,贺缠生.西北农牧交错带中部气候变化特征及其持续性[J].水土保持研究,2018,25(4):356-364.(ZHENG S X,GU J,HE C S.Variability and persistence of climate in the agricultural pastoral transitional zone in the central part of the northwest China[J].Research of soil and water conservation,2018,25(4):356-364.(in Chinese))DOI:10.13869/j.cnki.rswc.2018.04.052.
[24]王怀清,殷剑敏,孔萍,等.鄱阳湖流域千年旱涝变化特点及R/S分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015,24(7):1215-1220.(WANG H Q,YIN J M,KONG P,et al.Variation of drought and flood over the last millennium in poyang lake basin by R/S analysis[J].Resources and Environment in the Yangtze Basin,2015,24(7):1215-1220.(in Chinese))DOI:10.11870/cjlyzyyhj201507019.
[25]邱海军,曹明明,胡胜,等.近60a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究[J].地球与环境,2014,42(1):17-23.(QIU H J,CAO M M,HU S,et al.Susceptibility and periodicity of flood disasters since the1950sin China[J].EARTH AND ENVIRONMENT,2014,42(1):17-23.(in Chinese))DOI:10.14050/j.cnki.1672-9250.2014.01.015.
[26] INESON S,SCAIFE A A,KNIGHT J R,et al.Solar forcing of winter climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere[J].Nature Geoscience,2011,4(11):753-757.DOI:10.1038/ngeo1282.