非线性时变增益模型在新疆喀什中小河流洪水模拟中的适用性研究
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摘要
近年来受人类活动和气候变化影响,新疆喀什地区水文非线性特征凸显,使得传统考虑单一线性的模型精度不高,以新疆喀什地区中小流域为研究对象,应用非线性时变增益模型,结合该流域1999-2017年实测洪水数据分析该模型在新疆喀什地区中小河流洪水模拟的适用性。研究结果表明:采用新的模型洪水模拟精度可到乙级以上精度,明显好于传统模型。研究成果对于新疆喀什地区中小河流防洪预警具有重要参考价值。
In recent years, influenced by human activities and climate change, the hydrological nonlinear features of the Kashgar region in Xinjiang are prominent, which makes the traditional single-linear model less accurate. The small-scale watershed in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang is used as the research object, and the nonlinear time-varying gain model is applied. The applicability of the model in the flood simulation of small and medium rivers in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang was analyzed from the measured flood data from 1999 to 2017. The research results show that the accuracy of the new model flood simulation can reach the accuracy of Grade B or above, which is obviously better than the traditional model. The research results have important reference value for flood control early warning of medium and small rivers in Kashgar, Xinjiang.
In recent years, influenced by human activities and climate change, the hydrological nonlinear features of the Kashgar region in Xinjiang are prominent, which makes the traditional single-linear model less accurate. The small-scale watershed in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang is used as the research object, and the nonlinear time-varying gain model is applied. The applicability of the model in the flood simulation of small and medium rivers in the Kashgar region of Xinjiang was analyzed from the measured flood data from 1999 to 2017. The research results show that the accuracy of the new model flood simulation can reach the accuracy of Grade B or above, which is obviously better than the traditional model. The research results have important reference value for flood control early warning of medium and small rivers in Kashgar, Xinjiang.
引文
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[2]杨丽,王威.不同分布式水文模型在大凌河中游对比运用研究[J].地下水.2016.38(01):117-118+154.
[3]王敏嫱.基于ArcGIS和DEM在水文流域模拟中的应用[J].地下水.2011.33(04):159-161.
[4]赵静,李贺丽,陶林威.SLM和LPM模型日径流模拟对比分析——以陕西黑河为例[J].地下水.2006(05):25-27.
[5]张传荣.浅谈喀什地区水文分析计算及方向[J].内蒙古水利.2013(05):35-36.
[6]邱景军.浅议喀什地区洪水灾害与防治[J].中国农业信息.2013(01):97.
[7]艾拉提·托克逊,穆台力甫·牙森.新疆喀什库山河水文特性浅析[J].地下水.2011.33(06):200-202.
[8]蒋兵,马敬.新疆喀什市吐曼河城区段防洪方案的分析与确定[J].中国农村水利水电.2009(08):77-80.
[9]胡永超.新疆喀什噶尔河流域克孜河下游水土流失现状及对策[J].水土保持通报.2004(03):54-56.