基于新型数学模型的国际足联2018年俄罗斯世界杯运动员跑动特征研究
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摘要
采取数据级数推断与广义混合线性模型的统计方法,对2018年俄罗斯世界杯正赛阶段381名非门将位置足球运动员在829次打满全场的比赛中的跑动特征进行量化分析。结果显示:(1)在本届世界杯中,所有外场球员场均跑动距离(9 872±956) m,其中,高强度跑动(速度>20 km/h)距离约占7.2%,场均高强度跑动次数(31±11)次;(2)中场球员的场均跑动距离最多(10 608±759) m,其次是前锋球员(9 622±900) m,最少的是后卫球员(9 484±807) m,其中,前锋球员完成最多的冲刺跑动[速度>25 km/h,(259±113) m]和慢跑[速度<7 km/h,(3 827±324) m],中场球员完成最多的是低速跑[速度7～15 km/h,(4 705±685) m]和中速跑[速度15～20 km/h,(1 596±333) m];(3)本届世界杯中,所有球员上、下半场的跑动距离[(4 940±507) m与(4 933±516) m]、最大跑动速度[(27.5±2.7) km/h与(27.5±2.5) km/h]、高强度跑动次数[(15.5±6.2)次与(15.1±6.0)次]都只体现出极其可能的微小无意义变化(ES=-0.04、-0.06、-0.03,可能性皆大于99.5%),而下半场的慢跑距离(1 917±186) m相对于上半场的慢跑距离(1 771±176) m,则出现了极其可能的中等程度的升高(ES=0.82,可能性大于99.5%)。
Magnitude-based inferences and generalized linear mixed modelling were employed to analyze the 829 match-running performances of 381 players participating in the 2018 Russian FIFA World Cup. Results showed that:(1) Average total distance per match covered by players was(9 872±956) m, of which high-intensity-running distance took 7.2%, average high-intensity-running efforts were(31±11) times per match;(2) Midfield players covered the most distance(10 608±759) m,followed by forwards(9 622±900) m, defenders came the last(9 484±807) m. Forwards achieved the most sprints(259±113) m and jogging(3 827±324) m, midfielders did the most low-speed-running(4 705±685) m and moderate-speed running(1 596 ±333) m;(3) The total distance covered[(4 940±507) m vs(4933±516) m], maximum velocity [(27.5 ±2.7) km/h vs(27.5±2.5) km/h],high-intensity-running efforts [(15.5±6.2) times vs(15.1 ±6.0) times] showed trivial changes in the second half comparing to the first(ES=-0.04,-0.06,-0.03 respectively, likelihood > 99.5%), while the jogging distance in the second half(1 917±186) m showed a moderate increase(ES=0.82, likelihood > 99.5%) comparing to the first(1 771±176) m.
Magnitude-based inferences and generalized linear mixed modelling were employed to analyze the 829 match-running performances of 381 players participating in the 2018 Russian FIFA World Cup. Results showed that:(1) Average total distance per match covered by players was(9 872±956) m, of which high-intensity-running distance took 7.2%, average high-intensity-running efforts were(31±11) times per match;(2) Midfield players covered the most distance(10 608±759) m,followed by forwards(9 622±900) m, defenders came the last(9 484±807) m. Forwards achieved the most sprints(259±113) m and jogging(3 827±324) m, midfielders did the most low-speed-running(4 705±685) m and moderate-speed running(1 596 ±333) m;(3) The total distance covered[(4 940±507) m vs(4933±516) m], maximum velocity [(27.5 ±2.7) km/h vs(27.5±2.5) km/h],high-intensity-running efforts [(15.5±6.2) times vs(15.1 ±6.0) times] showed trivial changes in the second half comparing to the first(ES=-0.04,-0.06,-0.03 respectively, likelihood > 99.5%), while the jogging distance in the second half(1 917±186) m showed a moderate increase(ES=0.82, likelihood > 99.5%) comparing to the first(1 771±176) m.
引文
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[10]杜春杰,刘鸿优.高水平职业足球运动员比赛技战术表现特征研究---以西班牙男子足球甲级联赛为例[J].体育学刊,2016,23(4):110-116.
[11]Bradley P.S.,Noakes T.D.Match running performance fluctuations in elite soccer:Indicative of fatigue,pacing or situational influences?[J].Journal of Sports Sciences,2013,31(15):1627-1638.
[12]Torreno N.,Munguiaizquierdo D.,Coutts A.J.,et al.Relationship Between External and Internal Load of Professional Soccer Players During Full-Matches in Official Games Using GPS and Heart Rate Technology[J].International Journal of Sports Physiology&Performance,2016,11(7):940-946.
[2]姜哲,黄竹杭,吴放.不同比赛情境下中国足球超级联赛关键跑动表现指标探析[J].中国体育科技,2018,54(1):64-70.
[3]部义峰.优秀女子足球运动员跑动能力与比赛效果关联研究[J].中国体育科技,2014,50(2):3-9.
[4]2018 FIFA World Cup Russia?[EB/OL].[2019-06-17]https://www.fifa.com/worldcup/.
[5]Da Mota G.,Thiengo C.R.,Gimenes S.V.,et al.The effects of ball possession status on physical and technical indicators during the 2014 FIFA World Cup Finals[J].Journal of Sports Sciences,2015,34(6):1.
[6]刘鸿优,Hopkins W.G.体育统计学新视角:数据级数推断[J].体育与科学,2017,38(3):27-31.
[7]Hopkins W.G.,Marshall S.W.,Batterham A.M.,et al.Progressive statistics for studies in sports medicine and exercise science[J].Medicine&Science in Sports&Exercise,2009,41(1):3-13.
[8]朱军凯.第19届世界杯足球赛决赛阶段不同位置运动员比赛跑动特征分析[J].中国体育科技,2011,47(1):76-78.
[9]李晓康,潘春光,刘浩.中超联赛各比赛位置球员跑动距离及强度特征研究[J].北京体育大学学报,2016,39(3):130-136.
[10]杜春杰,刘鸿优.高水平职业足球运动员比赛技战术表现特征研究---以西班牙男子足球甲级联赛为例[J].体育学刊,2016,23(4):110-116.
[11]Bradley P.S.,Noakes T.D.Match running performance fluctuations in elite soccer:Indicative of fatigue,pacing or situational influences?[J].Journal of Sports Sciences,2013,31(15):1627-1638.
[12]Torreno N.,Munguiaizquierdo D.,Coutts A.J.,et al.Relationship Between External and Internal Load of Professional Soccer Players During Full-Matches in Official Games Using GPS and Heart Rate Technology[J].International Journal of Sports Physiology&Performance,2016,11(7):940-946.