基于BJ-RUCv2.0预报系统对大雾形成和发展关键条件的数值分析
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摘要
为了弄清北京地区持续性雾—霾天气过程的演变规律、揭示大雾形成和发展的关键条件,利用常规气象观测资料、高速路自动气象站观测资料和大气成分观测资料分析了2013年1月26~31日雾—霾天气过程的演变特征和有利于大雾形成和发展的天气形势。在此基础上,采用先进的北京快速循环同化中尺度数值预报系统(BJ-RUCv2.0)开展数值模拟,分析大雾形成的水汽、动力和热力条件,得出:模式对1月30日夜间至31日前半夜的雾区模拟较好,但对28日夜间至29日白天(大雾天气伴严重大气污染)雾区的模拟偏差较大。发现近地层的持续性东南风使950 hPa以下湿度增大是大雾形成的关键条件。上层(975~800 hPa)的明显暖平流导致逆温层的加强和维持,使大气层结稳定度增强,是大雾天气发展和维持的重要条件。另外,近地层950 hPa以下为风场辐合、其上层为风场辐散的结构有利于雾的进一步发展。
In order to find out the evolution characteristics of successive heavy fog and haze processes and reveal crucial conditions for the formation and development of fogs in Beijing,this paper analyzes the weather evolution characteristics corresponding to the heavy fog and haze case occurred from 26 Jan to 31 Jan 2013.Conventional meteorological data,automatic weather station data,and atmospheric composition observation data are used in this study.The weather conditions that are favorable for the formation and development of fogs are also analyzed.Based on the above analysis,the complicated BJ-RUCv2.0(Beijing Rapid Updated Cycle forecast system version 2.0) is used to simulate water vapor,momentum,and thermal conditions for fogs.The results indicate that BJ-RUCv2.0 can well simulate the area of advection fog that occurred from the night of 30 Jan to the early night of 31 Jan.However,large errors occurred in the simulation for the fog event accompanied with severe air pollution from the nighttime of 28 Jan to the daytime of 29 Jan.The crucial condition for the formation of the heavy fog is the increase in the atmospheric humidity below 950 hPa,which is attributed to successive southeasterly winds in the near surface layer.The atmospheric stratification stability and the inversion layer are strengthened by the obviously warm advection from 975 hPa to 800 hPa,which is an important factor for the development and maintenance of the heavy fog.In addition,the wind convergence near surface(below 950 hPa) and the wind divergence on the upper layer are favorable for the fog development.
In order to find out the evolution characteristics of successive heavy fog and haze processes and reveal crucial conditions for the formation and development of fogs in Beijing,this paper analyzes the weather evolution characteristics corresponding to the heavy fog and haze case occurred from 26 Jan to 31 Jan 2013.Conventional meteorological data,automatic weather station data,and atmospheric composition observation data are used in this study.The weather conditions that are favorable for the formation and development of fogs are also analyzed.Based on the above analysis,the complicated BJ-RUCv2.0(Beijing Rapid Updated Cycle forecast system version 2.0) is used to simulate water vapor,momentum,and thermal conditions for fogs.The results indicate that BJ-RUCv2.0 can well simulate the area of advection fog that occurred from the night of 30 Jan to the early night of 31 Jan.However,large errors occurred in the simulation for the fog event accompanied with severe air pollution from the nighttime of 28 Jan to the daytime of 29 Jan.The crucial condition for the formation of the heavy fog is the increase in the atmospheric humidity below 950 hPa,which is attributed to successive southeasterly winds in the near surface layer.The atmospheric stratification stability and the inversion layer are strengthened by the obviously warm advection from 975 hPa to 800 hPa,which is an important factor for the development and maintenance of the heavy fog.In addition,the wind convergence near surface(below 950 hPa) and the wind divergence on the upper layer are favorable for the fog development.
引文
包云轩,丁秋冀,袁成松,等.2013.沪宁高速公路一次复杂性大雾过程的数值模拟试验[J].大气科学,37(1):124-136.Bao Yunxuan,Ding Qiuji,Yuan Chengsong,et al.2013.Numerical simulations of a highly complex fog event on Shanghai-Nanjing expressway[J].Chinese Journal of Atmospheric Sciences(in Chinese),37(1):124-136,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2012.12010.
Bergot T,Guedalia D.1994.Numerical forecasting of radiation fog Part I:Numerical model and sensitivity tests[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,122(6):1218-1230,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1218:NFORFP>2.0.CO;2.
曹伟华,梁旭东,李青春.2013.北京一次持续性雾霾过程的阶段性特征及影响因子分析[J].气象学报,71(5):940-951.Cao Weihua,Liang Xudong,Li Qingchun.2013.A study of the stageful characteristics and influencing factors of a long-lasting fog/haze event in Beijing[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(5):940-951,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.072.
陈敏,陈明轩,范水勇.2014.雷达径向风观测在华北区域数值预报系统中的实时三维变分同化应用试验[J].气象学报,72(4):658-677.Chen Min,Chen Mingxuan,Fan Shuiyong.2014.The real-time radar radial velocity 3DVar assimilation experiments for application to an operational forecast model in North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),72(4):658-677,doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.070.
陈佑淑,蒋瑞宾.1989.气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,288-292.Chen Youshu,Jiang Ruibin.1989.Meteorology(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,288-292.
Chen Fei,Dudhia Jimy.2001.Coupling an advanced land surface hydrology model with the penn state-NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,129(4):569-585.
Dudhia J.1994.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model a[J].JAtmos Sci.,46(20):3077-3107.
Dudhia J,Hong S Y,et a1.2001.A new method for representing mixedphase particle fall speeds in bulk microphysics parameterizations[J].JMeteor Soc Japan,86A:33-44.
范水勇,王洪利,陈敏,等.2013.雷达反射率资料的三维变分同化研究[J].气象学报,71(3):527-537.Fan Shuiyong,Wang Hongli,Chen Min,et al.2013.Study of the data assimilation of radar reflectivity with the WRF 3D-Var[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(3):527-537,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.032.
高怡,张美根.2014.2013年1月华北地区重雾霾过程及其成因的模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):140-152.Gao Yi,Zhang Meigen.2014.Numerical simulation of a heavy fog-haze episode over the North China plain in January 2013[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),19(2):140-152,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13135.
黄蕊珠,陈焕盛,葛宝珠,等.2015.京津冀重霾期间PM2.5来源数值模拟研究[J].环境科学学报,35(9):2670-2680.Huang Ruizhu,Chen Huansheng,Ge Baozhu,et al.2015.Numerical study on source contributions to PM2.5 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area during a severe haze event[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae(in Chinese),35(9):2670-2680,doi:10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2015.0046.
Kunkel B A.1984.Parameterization of droplet terminal velocity and extinction coefficient in fog models[J].J.Climate Appl.Meteor.,23(1):34-41,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0034:PODTVA>2.0.CO;2.
Kusaka H,Chen F,Bao J W,et al.2004.Simulation of the urban heat island effects over the greater Houston area with the high resolution WRF/LSM/Urban coupled system[R].Symposium on“Planning,Nowcasting,and Forecasting in the Urban Zone”.Seattle,WA.
雷正翠,钱玮,夏文梅,等.2016.常州地区霾的变化特征及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,32(3):53-60.Lei Zhengcui,Qian Wei,Xia Wenmei,et al.2016.Analysis of characteristics and impact factors of haze in Changzhou[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),32(3):53-60,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.03.008.
李元平,梁爱民,张中锋,等.2007.北京地区一次冬季平流雾过程数值模拟分析[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),29(2):167-172,182.Li Yuanping,Liang Aimin,Zhang Zhongfeng,et al.2007.Simulation and analysis of a winter advection fog in Beijing area[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences)(in Chinese),29(2):167-172,182.
梁爱民,张庆红,刘开宇,等.2007.华北地区一次大雾过程的三维变分同化试验[J].气象学报,65(5):792-804.Liang Aimin,Zhang Qinghong,Liu Kaiyu,et al.2007.3D variation data assimilation experiments on a dense fog event over North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),65(5):792-804,doi:10.11676/qxxb2007.075.
刘梦娟,陈敏.2014.BJ-RUC系统对北京夏季边界层的预报性能评估[J].应用气象学报,25(2):212-221.Liu Mengjuan,Chen Min.2014.Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing Area[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),25(2):212-221.
Miao S G,Chen F,Le Mone M A,et al.2009.An observational and modeling study of characteristics of urban heat island and boundary layer structures in Beijing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,48(3):484-501,doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1909.1.
苗世光,Chen Fei,李青春,等.2010.北京城市化对夏季大气边界层结构及降水的月平均影响[J].地球物理学报,53(7):1580-1593.Miao Shiguang,Chen Fei,Li Qingchun,et al.2010.Month-averaged impacts of urbanization on atmospheric boundary layer structure and precipitation in summer in Beijing area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),53(7):1580-1593,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.07.009.
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the long wave[J].J Geophys Res.102(D14):16663-16682.
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer.part I:Model description and testing[J].J.ppl.Meteor.climatol.,46(9):1388-1395.
王佳,缪启龙,严明良,等.2012.采用不同参数化方案对沪宁高速公路浓雾过程的模拟试验[J].气象与减灾研究,35(1):29-35.Wang Jia,Miao Qilong,Yan Mingliang et al.2012.Simulation of a heavy fog process over Shanghai-Nanjing expressway using different parameterization schemes of WRF model[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),35(1):29-35.
王跃思,姚利,王莉莉,等.2014.2013年元月我国中东部地区强霾污染成因分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):15-26.Wang Yuesi,Yao Li,Wang Lili,et al.2014.Mechanism for the formation of the January 2013heavy haze pollution episode over central and eastern China[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,57(1):14-25,doi:10.1007/s11430-013-4773-4.
严明良,缪启龙,袁成松,等.2011.沪宁高速公路一次大雾过程的数值模拟及诊断分析[J].高原气象,30(2):428-436.Yan Mingliang,Miao Qilong,Yuan Chengsong,et al.2011.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy fog process in Shanghai-Nanjing express way[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),30(2):428-436.
张小玲,唐宜西,熊亚军,等.2014.华北平原一次严重区域雾霾天气分析与数值预报试验[J].中国科学院大学学报,31(3):337-344.Zhang Xiaoling,Tang Yixi,Xiong Yajun,et al.2014.Analysis and numerical forecast of a regional fog-haze in North China plain[J].Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(in Chinese),31(3):337-344.
张亦洲,苗世光,戴永久,等.2013.北京夏季晴天边界层特征及城市下垫面对海风影响的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,56(8):2558-2573.Zhang Yizhou,Miao Shiguang,Dai Yongjiu,et al.2013.Numerical simulation of characteristics of summer clear day boundary layer in Beijing and the impact of urban underlying surface on sea breeze[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(8):2558-2573,doi:10.6038/cjg20130806.
赵慧霞,王维国,李泽椿,等.2010.雾对我国交通运输的不利影响及对策[J].气象与环境学报,26(2):58-62.Zhao Huixia,Wang Weiguo,Li Zechun,et al.2010.Effects of fog on traffic and transportation and the countermeasures in China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),26(2):58-62.
Bergot T,Guedalia D.1994.Numerical forecasting of radiation fog Part I:Numerical model and sensitivity tests[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,122(6):1218-1230,doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1994)122<1218:NFORFP>2.0.CO;2.
曹伟华,梁旭东,李青春.2013.北京一次持续性雾霾过程的阶段性特征及影响因子分析[J].气象学报,71(5):940-951.Cao Weihua,Liang Xudong,Li Qingchun.2013.A study of the stageful characteristics and influencing factors of a long-lasting fog/haze event in Beijing[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(5):940-951,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.072.
陈敏,陈明轩,范水勇.2014.雷达径向风观测在华北区域数值预报系统中的实时三维变分同化应用试验[J].气象学报,72(4):658-677.Chen Min,Chen Mingxuan,Fan Shuiyong.2014.The real-time radar radial velocity 3DVar assimilation experiments for application to an operational forecast model in North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),72(4):658-677,doi:10.11676/qxxb2014.070.
陈佑淑,蒋瑞宾.1989.气象学[M].北京:气象出版社,288-292.Chen Youshu,Jiang Ruibin.1989.Meteorology(in Chinese)[M].Beijing:China Meteorological Press,288-292.
Chen Fei,Dudhia Jimy.2001.Coupling an advanced land surface hydrology model with the penn state-NCAR MM5 modeling system.Part I:Model implementation and sensitivity[J].Mon.Wea.Rev.,129(4):569-585.
Dudhia J.1994.Numerical study of convection observed during the winter monsoon experiment using a mesoscale two-dimensional model a[J].JAtmos Sci.,46(20):3077-3107.
Dudhia J,Hong S Y,et a1.2001.A new method for representing mixedphase particle fall speeds in bulk microphysics parameterizations[J].JMeteor Soc Japan,86A:33-44.
范水勇,王洪利,陈敏,等.2013.雷达反射率资料的三维变分同化研究[J].气象学报,71(3):527-537.Fan Shuiyong,Wang Hongli,Chen Min,et al.2013.Study of the data assimilation of radar reflectivity with the WRF 3D-Var[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),71(3):527-537,doi:10.11676/qxxb2013.032.
高怡,张美根.2014.2013年1月华北地区重雾霾过程及其成因的模拟分析[J].气候与环境研究,19(2):140-152.Gao Yi,Zhang Meigen.2014.Numerical simulation of a heavy fog-haze episode over the North China plain in January 2013[J].Climatic and Environmental Research(in Chinese),19(2):140-152,doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9585.2014.13135.
黄蕊珠,陈焕盛,葛宝珠,等.2015.京津冀重霾期间PM2.5来源数值模拟研究[J].环境科学学报,35(9):2670-2680.Huang Ruizhu,Chen Huansheng,Ge Baozhu,et al.2015.Numerical study on source contributions to PM2.5 over Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area during a severe haze event[J].Acta Scientiae Circumstantiae(in Chinese),35(9):2670-2680,doi:10.13671/j.hjkxxb.2015.0046.
Kunkel B A.1984.Parameterization of droplet terminal velocity and extinction coefficient in fog models[J].J.Climate Appl.Meteor.,23(1):34-41,doi:10.1175/1520-0450(1984)023<0034:PODTVA>2.0.CO;2.
Kusaka H,Chen F,Bao J W,et al.2004.Simulation of the urban heat island effects over the greater Houston area with the high resolution WRF/LSM/Urban coupled system[R].Symposium on“Planning,Nowcasting,and Forecasting in the Urban Zone”.Seattle,WA.
雷正翠,钱玮,夏文梅,等.2016.常州地区霾的变化特征及影响因子分析[J].气象与环境学报,32(3):53-60.Lei Zhengcui,Qian Wei,Xia Wenmei,et al.2016.Analysis of characteristics and impact factors of haze in Changzhou[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),32(3):53-60,doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2016.03.008.
李元平,梁爱民,张中锋,等.2007.北京地区一次冬季平流雾过程数值模拟分析[J].云南大学学报(自然科学版),29(2):167-172,182.Li Yuanping,Liang Aimin,Zhang Zhongfeng,et al.2007.Simulation and analysis of a winter advection fog in Beijing area[J].Journal of Yunnan University(Natural Sciences)(in Chinese),29(2):167-172,182.
梁爱民,张庆红,刘开宇,等.2007.华北地区一次大雾过程的三维变分同化试验[J].气象学报,65(5):792-804.Liang Aimin,Zhang Qinghong,Liu Kaiyu,et al.2007.3D variation data assimilation experiments on a dense fog event over North China[J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica(in Chinese),65(5):792-804,doi:10.11676/qxxb2007.075.
刘梦娟,陈敏.2014.BJ-RUC系统对北京夏季边界层的预报性能评估[J].应用气象学报,25(2):212-221.Liu Mengjuan,Chen Min.2014.Evaluation of BJ-RUC system for the forecast quality of planetary boundary layer in Beijing Area[J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science(in Chinese),25(2):212-221.
Miao S G,Chen F,Le Mone M A,et al.2009.An observational and modeling study of characteristics of urban heat island and boundary layer structures in Beijing[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,48(3):484-501,doi:10.1175/2008JAMC1909.1.
苗世光,Chen Fei,李青春,等.2010.北京城市化对夏季大气边界层结构及降水的月平均影响[J].地球物理学报,53(7):1580-1593.Miao Shiguang,Chen Fei,Li Qingchun,et al.2010.Month-averaged impacts of urbanization on atmospheric boundary layer structure and precipitation in summer in Beijing area[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),53(7):1580-1593,doi:10.3969/j.issn.0001-5733.2010.07.009.
Mlawer E J,Taubman S J,et al.1997.Radiative transfer for inhomogeneous atmospheres:RRTM,a validated correlated-k model for the long wave[J].J Geophys Res.102(D14):16663-16682.
Pleim J E.2007.A combined local and nonlocal closure model for the atmospheric boundary layer.part I:Model description and testing[J].J.ppl.Meteor.climatol.,46(9):1388-1395.
王佳,缪启龙,严明良,等.2012.采用不同参数化方案对沪宁高速公路浓雾过程的模拟试验[J].气象与减灾研究,35(1):29-35.Wang Jia,Miao Qilong,Yan Mingliang et al.2012.Simulation of a heavy fog process over Shanghai-Nanjing expressway using different parameterization schemes of WRF model[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research(in Chinese),35(1):29-35.
王跃思,姚利,王莉莉,等.2014.2013年元月我国中东部地区强霾污染成因分析[J].中国科学:地球科学,44(1):15-26.Wang Yuesi,Yao Li,Wang Lili,et al.2014.Mechanism for the formation of the January 2013heavy haze pollution episode over central and eastern China[J].Science China:Earth Sciences,57(1):14-25,doi:10.1007/s11430-013-4773-4.
严明良,缪启龙,袁成松,等.2011.沪宁高速公路一次大雾过程的数值模拟及诊断分析[J].高原气象,30(2):428-436.Yan Mingliang,Miao Qilong,Yuan Chengsong,et al.2011.Numerical simulation and diagnostic analysis of a heavy fog process in Shanghai-Nanjing express way[J].Plateau Meteorology(in Chinese),30(2):428-436.
张小玲,唐宜西,熊亚军,等.2014.华北平原一次严重区域雾霾天气分析与数值预报试验[J].中国科学院大学学报,31(3):337-344.Zhang Xiaoling,Tang Yixi,Xiong Yajun,et al.2014.Analysis and numerical forecast of a regional fog-haze in North China plain[J].Journal of University of Chinese Academy of Sciences(in Chinese),31(3):337-344.
张亦洲,苗世光,戴永久,等.2013.北京夏季晴天边界层特征及城市下垫面对海风影响的数值模拟[J].地球物理学报,56(8):2558-2573.Zhang Yizhou,Miao Shiguang,Dai Yongjiu,et al.2013.Numerical simulation of characteristics of summer clear day boundary layer in Beijing and the impact of urban underlying surface on sea breeze[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics(in Chinese),56(8):2558-2573,doi:10.6038/cjg20130806.
赵慧霞,王维国,李泽椿,等.2010.雾对我国交通运输的不利影响及对策[J].气象与环境学报,26(2):58-62.Zhao Huixia,Wang Weiguo,Li Zechun,et al.2010.Effects of fog on traffic and transportation and the countermeasures in China[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment(in Chinese),26(2):58-62.