基于湖南CORS网的PWV时空变化分析及其在暴雨落区预报中的应用
|
摘要
针对2017-05-22~05-23湖南地区的一次暴雨过程,结合气温、气压等大气热动力条件,分析此次降雨过程的大气可降水量(precipitable water vapor,PWV)时空分布及其动态变化特征。研究表明,在水汽条件充足的情况下,降雨的形成需要强烈的水汽辐合上升作用,可以结合热动力条件来预判降水时间和强度;PWV与实际降雨量平面分布图的对比分析表明,PWV高值区和实际降雨落区基本重合,PWV时空变化分析对预测暴雨落区有一定的指示意义。
Atmospheric precipitable water vapor(PWV)over the station can be estimated using ground-based GPS technology.The variation characteristics of PWV have very good indicators to the predict precipitation time and falling area.Along with the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions such as temperature and pressure,we analyze the variation characteristics of timeseries and plane dynamic distribution of PWV during the rainstorm that occurred May 22-23,2017 in Hunan province.The results show that the formation of precipitation requires strong convergence ascending of water vapor.The precipitation time and intensity can be predicted by combining thermal dynamic conditions in the case of sufficient water vapor conditions.The contrastive analysis of plane distribution maps of PWV and actual precipitation shows that the high value region of PWV basically coincides with the falling area of the rainstorm.It means that GPS-PWV has certain indicating significance to forecast the falling area of the rainstorm.
Atmospheric precipitable water vapor(PWV)over the station can be estimated using ground-based GPS technology.The variation characteristics of PWV have very good indicators to the predict precipitation time and falling area.Along with the atmospheric thermodynamic conditions such as temperature and pressure,we analyze the variation characteristics of timeseries and plane dynamic distribution of PWV during the rainstorm that occurred May 22-23,2017 in Hunan province.The results show that the formation of precipitation requires strong convergence ascending of water vapor.The precipitation time and intensity can be predicted by combining thermal dynamic conditions in the case of sufficient water vapor conditions.The contrastive analysis of plane distribution maps of PWV and actual precipitation shows that the high value region of PWV basically coincides with the falling area of the rainstorm.It means that GPS-PWV has certain indicating significance to forecast the falling area of the rainstorm.
引文
[1]李国平,陈娇娜,黄丁发,等.地基GPS水汽实时监测系统及其气象业务应用[J].武汉大学学报:信息科学版,2009,34(11):1 328-1 331(Li Guoping,Chen Jiaona,Huang Dingfa,et al.Real-Time Monitoring System of Precipitable Water Vapor Derived from Ground-Based GPS and Its Applications in Meteorology[J].Geomatics and Information Science of Wuhan University,2009,34(11):1 328-1 331)
[2]李国平,黄丁发.GPS气象学研究及应用的进展与前景[J].气象科学,2005,25(6):651-661(Li Guoping,Huang Dingfa.Advances and Prospects in the Study of GPS Meteorology[J].Scientia Meteorlogica Sinica,2005,25(6):651-661)
[3]国家质量监督检验检疫局.GB/T 28592-2012降水量等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012(General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine.GB/T 28592-2012 Grade of Precipitation[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2012)
[4]Cao Y,Guo H,Liao R,et al.Analysis of Water Vapor Characteristics of Regional Rainfall around Poyang Lake U-sing Ground-Based GPS Observations[J].Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica,2015,51(3):467-479
[5]李黎,匡翠林,朱建军,等.基于实时精密单点定位技术的暴雨短临预报[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(4):1 129-1 136(Li Li,Kuang Cuilin,Zhu Jianjun,et al.Rainstorm Nowcasting Based on GPS Real-Time Precise Point Positioning Technology[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(4):1 129-1 136)
[6]Sapucci L F,Machado L A T,de Souza E M,et al.GPS-PWV Jumps before Intense Rain Events[J].Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions,2016,1-27
[7]王勇,何荣,杨彬云,等.GPS反演的可降水量与降水的对比分析研究[J].测绘科学,2010,35(5):80-82(Wang Yong,He Rong,Yang Binyun,et al.Study of Comparisons between GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Rainfall[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2010,35(5):80-82)
[8]李黎,田莹,谢威,等.基于探空资料的湖南地区加权平均温度本地化模型研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(3):282-286(Li Li,Tian Ying,Xie Wei,et al.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2017,37(3):282-286)
[9]Bevis M,Businger S,Chiswell S,et al.GPS Meteorology:Mapping Zenith Wet Delays onto Precipitable Water[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1994,33(3):379-386
[2]李国平,黄丁发.GPS气象学研究及应用的进展与前景[J].气象科学,2005,25(6):651-661(Li Guoping,Huang Dingfa.Advances and Prospects in the Study of GPS Meteorology[J].Scientia Meteorlogica Sinica,2005,25(6):651-661)
[3]国家质量监督检验检疫局.GB/T 28592-2012降水量等级[S].北京:中国标准出版社,2012(General Administration of Quality Supervision,Inspection and Quarantine.GB/T 28592-2012 Grade of Precipitation[S].Beijing:China Standards Press,2012)
[4]Cao Y,Guo H,Liao R,et al.Analysis of Water Vapor Characteristics of Regional Rainfall around Poyang Lake U-sing Ground-Based GPS Observations[J].Acta Geodaetica et Geophysica,2015,51(3):467-479
[5]李黎,匡翠林,朱建军,等.基于实时精密单点定位技术的暴雨短临预报[J].地球物理学报,2012,55(4):1 129-1 136(Li Li,Kuang Cuilin,Zhu Jianjun,et al.Rainstorm Nowcasting Based on GPS Real-Time Precise Point Positioning Technology[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2012,55(4):1 129-1 136)
[6]Sapucci L F,Machado L A T,de Souza E M,et al.GPS-PWV Jumps before Intense Rain Events[J].Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions,2016,1-27
[7]王勇,何荣,杨彬云,等.GPS反演的可降水量与降水的对比分析研究[J].测绘科学,2010,35(5):80-82(Wang Yong,He Rong,Yang Binyun,et al.Study of Comparisons between GPS Precipitable Water Vapor and Rainfall[J].Science of Surveying and Mapping,2010,35(5):80-82)
[8]李黎,田莹,谢威,等.基于探空资料的湖南地区加权平均温度本地化模型研究[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2017,37(3):282-286(Li Li,Tian Ying,Xie Wei,et al.Journal of Geodesy and Geodynamics,2017,37(3):282-286)
[9]Bevis M,Businger S,Chiswell S,et al.GPS Meteorology:Mapping Zenith Wet Delays onto Precipitable Water[J].Journal of Applied Meteorology,1994,33(3):379-386