基于机器人产业发展阶段的政策—技术路线图构建
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摘要
本文采用专家会谈法构建中国机器人产业的政策-技术路线图基本框架,在此基础上,结合机器人产业发展阶段,并通过政策样本内容分析法绘制机器人产业的政策—技术路线图,图谱化地展示机器人政策对技术、产品和市场的作用机制。通过研究,发现机器人产业发展和政策存在强关联性。在产业发展初期供给侧工具影响显著,到了发展中后期,环境侧工具逐渐占据主导,并伴随着需求侧工具的配合使用,使得机器人市场逐渐发展壮大,从而进一步推动机器人技术的研发和产品的迭代更新。
The basic framework of Policy-Technology Roadmap( P-TRM) of China's robot industry was constructed by using experts' interview. On the basis of the previous research,the Policy-Technology Roadmap( P-TRM) of China's robot industry was drawn through policy content analysis combined with the development stage of the robot industry,in order to graphically reveal the robot policies' impact on technologies,products and markets. There was the strong relationship between the robot industry and policies. At the same time,it was pointed out that in the initial stage of industrial development,the supply-side tools had a significant impact. In the middle and late stage of development,environmental-side tools gradually dominated,and with the use of demand-side tools,the robot markets had gradually grown and expanded,which further promoted the research of technologies and the iteration of products for robot industry.
The basic framework of Policy-Technology Roadmap( P-TRM) of China's robot industry was constructed by using experts' interview. On the basis of the previous research,the Policy-Technology Roadmap( P-TRM) of China's robot industry was drawn through policy content analysis combined with the development stage of the robot industry,in order to graphically reveal the robot policies' impact on technologies,products and markets. There was the strong relationship between the robot industry and policies. At the same time,it was pointed out that in the initial stage of industrial development,the supply-side tools had a significant impact. In the middle and late stage of development,environmental-side tools gradually dominated,and with the use of demand-side tools,the robot markets had gradually grown and expanded,which further promoted the research of technologies and the iteration of products for robot industry.
引文
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[13]YIN R K. Case study research:design and methods[M].3rd ed. Newbury Park:Sage Publications,2003.
[14]EISENHARDT K M. Building theories from case study research[J].Academy of management review,1989,14(4):532.
[15]TORRES-FUCHSLOCHER C. Understanding the development of technology-intensive suppliers in resource-based developing economies[J].Research policy,2010,39(2):268-277.
[16]KONG D,ZHOU Y,LIU Y,et al. Using the data mining method to assess the innovation gap:a case of industrial robotics in a catching-up country[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2017,119:80-97.
[17]陈军,张韵君.基于专利情报定标比超分析的中国机器人产业发展研究[J].中国科技论坛,2016(10):45-52.
[18]黄萃.政策文献量化研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.
[2]STIGLITZ J E,GREENWALD B C. Creating a learning society:a new approach to growth,development and social progress[M].New York:Columbia University Press,2014.
[3]GROENVELD P. Roadmapping integrates business and technology[J].Research technology management,2007,50(6):49-58.
[4]李栎,张志强,安培浚.技术路线图的发展与应用分析[J].图书与情报,2009(3):8-13.
[5]JUNIOR L A B,VASCONCELLOS E,GUEDES L V,et al. Technology roadmapping:a methodological proposition to refine Delphi results[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2018(126):194-206.
[6]李欣,黄鲁成.技术路线图方法探索与实践应用研究——基于文献计量和专利分析视角[J].科技进步与对策,2016,33(5):62-72.
[7]李剑敏,余婉浈.动态环境下的产业关键技术识别——基于情境分析的产业技术路线图方法[J].科学学与科学技术管理,2017,38(4):35-44.
[8]PHAAL R,O'SULLIVAN E,ROUTLEY M,et al. A framework for mapping industrial emergence[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2011,78(2):217-230.
[9]智强,苏峻,汝鹏,等.政策引导下的新兴产业技术创新模式:以中国风电设备制造业为例[J].国际经济评论,2013(2):46-58.
[10]PORTER M E. The competitive advantage of nations[M].London:Macmillan,1990.
[11]ROTHWELL R,ZEGVELD W. An assessment of government innovation policies[J].Review of policy research,1984,3(3-4):436-444.
[12]董桂才,巨小超.工业机器人出口技术复杂度影响因素——基于钻石模型的分析[J].中国科技论坛,2017(7):111-117,160.
[13]YIN R K. Case study research:design and methods[M].3rd ed. Newbury Park:Sage Publications,2003.
[14]EISENHARDT K M. Building theories from case study research[J].Academy of management review,1989,14(4):532.
[15]TORRES-FUCHSLOCHER C. Understanding the development of technology-intensive suppliers in resource-based developing economies[J].Research policy,2010,39(2):268-277.
[16]KONG D,ZHOU Y,LIU Y,et al. Using the data mining method to assess the innovation gap:a case of industrial robotics in a catching-up country[J].Technological forecasting and social change,2017,119:80-97.
[17]陈军,张韵君.基于专利情报定标比超分析的中国机器人产业发展研究[J].中国科技论坛,2016(10):45-52.
[18]黄萃.政策文献量化研究[M].北京:科学出版社,2016.