中美关系周期变化与东南亚国家的外交选择
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摘要
从新中国成立到奥巴马政府上台之前,中美关系历经1949—1969年、1969—1989年和1989—2009年三个"20年周期",意识形态、地缘政治和经济相互依赖是中美关系这三个周期变化的重要因素。奥巴马政府提出"重返亚太"、"亚太再平衡",特朗普政府提出"美国优先"并掀起贸易战,中美关系再次陷入低谷,权力结构性矛盾使中美从战略竞争走向战略对抗的可能性增大,这表明中美关系实际上已处于2009—2029年第四个20年周期的关键时期。中美关系前三个20年的周期性变化对东南亚国家的外交选择具有十分重要的影响,具体体现在:按照意识形态"选边站";维护地缘安全;实施"大国平衡",推进经贸合作和区域一体化建设。在当前美国对中国采取战略对抗的形势下,东南亚国家坚持不"选边站"的立场会面临极大的挑战,中国需要思考其部分国家在极端情况下是否会重回"选边站"的问题。
From the founding of New China to the Obama administration, Sino-US relations have experienced three "20-year cycles" of 1949-1969, 1969-1989, and 1989-2009. Ideology, geopolitics, and economic interdependence are important factors that lead to cyclical changes in Sino-US relations. The Obama administration proposed "returning to the Asia-Pacific" and "Asia-Pacific rebalancing". The Trump administration proposed "US priority" and set off a trade war. Sino-US relations have fallen into a trough, and the structural contradictions of power have increased the possibility of Sino-US strategic competition to strategic confrontation. This shows that Sino-US relations are actually at a critical period in the fourth 20-year cycle of 2009-2029.The cyclical changes in the first three decades of Sino-US relations have a very important impact on the diplomatic choices of Southeast Asian countries. They are embodied in: "Selecting border stations in accordance with ideology", maintaining geopolitical security, implementing "great power balance" and promoting economic and trade cooperation and regional integration construction. Under the current situation of the US taking strategic confrontation against China, Southeast Asian countries will face great challenges in insisting on the position of not choosing the sides. China needs to consider whether some countries will return to the "taking sides" in extreme cases.
From the founding of New China to the Obama administration, Sino-US relations have experienced three "20-year cycles" of 1949-1969, 1969-1989, and 1989-2009. Ideology, geopolitics, and economic interdependence are important factors that lead to cyclical changes in Sino-US relations. The Obama administration proposed "returning to the Asia-Pacific" and "Asia-Pacific rebalancing". The Trump administration proposed "US priority" and set off a trade war. Sino-US relations have fallen into a trough, and the structural contradictions of power have increased the possibility of Sino-US strategic competition to strategic confrontation. This shows that Sino-US relations are actually at a critical period in the fourth 20-year cycle of 2009-2029.The cyclical changes in the first three decades of Sino-US relations have a very important impact on the diplomatic choices of Southeast Asian countries. They are embodied in: "Selecting border stations in accordance with ideology", maintaining geopolitical security, implementing "great power balance" and promoting economic and trade cooperation and regional integration construction. Under the current situation of the US taking strategic confrontation against China, Southeast Asian countries will face great challenges in insisting on the position of not choosing the sides. China needs to consider whether some countries will return to the "taking sides" in extreme cases.
引文
(1)Sidharto R. Suryodipuro, Implications Of Sino-American Strategic Competition On Southeast Asia's Post-Cold War Regional Order, Thesis, Naval Postgraduate School,Monterey, California, December 2003; Ann Marie Murphy, “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages”,Asian Security, Vol.13, No.3, 2017, pp.165-182; Ian Storey, “The United States And Asean-China Relations: All Quiet On The Southeast Asian Front”, The Strategic Studies Institute, October 2007, http://strategicstudiesinstitute. army.mil/pdffiles/PUB812.pdf; Dana R. Dillon and John J. Tkacik, Jr., “China and ASEAN: Endangered American Primacy in Southeast Asia”,Backgrounder, Produced by the Asian Studies Center, Published by The Heritage Foundation, October 19, 2005, No.1886; Joseph Chinyong Liow, “U.S.-China Relations and Regional Security Architecture: A View from Southeast Asia”, Weighing the Rebalance Policy Brief Series, October 2015,https://www.wilsoncenter.org/sites/default/files/us-china_relations_and_regional_security_architecture_southeast_asia_liow.pdf,etc.
(2)〈美〉詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著, 阎学通、陈寒溪译《争论中的国际关系理论》(第5版),世界知识出版社,2003年,第332页。
(3)〈美〉詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著, 阎学通、陈寒溪译《争论中的国际关系理论》(第5版),世界知识出版社,2003年,第336-337页。
(4)陈奕平:《美国特朗普政府的东南亚政策:继承的遗产及走势展望》,《东南亚研究》2017年第1期。
(5)关于新中国成立时期外交政策的文献和论述,可参见毛泽东:《在中国共产党第七届中央委员会第二次全体会议上的报告》(1949年3月5日),《毛泽东选集》,中央文献出版社,1993年,第1435-1436页;周恩来:《新中国的外交》(1949年11月8日),《周恩来外交文选》,世界知识出版,1993年, 第1-7页。
(6)崔丕:《美日在东南亚的战略合作:印度尼西亚债权国会议的缘起与影响》,戴超武主编《亚洲冷战史研究》,东方出版中心,2016年,第164页。
(7)“A Report to the National Security Council by the Secretary of State, NSC 51”, July 1, 1949, Declassified Documents Reference System(DDRS), Document No.: CK2349354016.
(8)Thomas J. Bellows, “The United States and Southeast Asia”,World Affairs, Vol.137, Fall of 1974, pp.99-100.
(9)关于“革命外交”的论述可参见杨奎松《新中国的革命外交思想与实践》,《史学月刊》2010年第2期。
(10)《美帝走狗拼凑的“东南亚国家联盟”出笼,美国主子急忙为其反华反共反人民的反动联盟喝彩叫好》,《人民日报》1967年8月12日。
(11)张锡镇:《东南亚政府与政治》,广西人民出版社,1995年,第400-401页。
(12)Robert J. McMahon, The Limits of Empire: The United States and Southeast Asia Since World War II, New York: Columbia University Press,1999,p.188.
(13)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第119、153页。
(14)Ann Marie Murphy, “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages”,Asian Security, Vol.13, No.3, 2017, p.171.
(15)张金翠:《美国 2006年〈中国军力报告〉与对华新战略》,《世界经济与政治论坛》2006年第5期。
(16)Ann Marie Murphy, “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages”, Asian Security, Vol.13, No.3, 2017, p.171.
(17)陈奕平、王琛:《大国关系变动下东盟国家的战略选择——基于20世纪60年代末以来历史演变的分析》,杨静林、庄国土主编《东盟发展报告(2017)》,社会科学文献出版社,2018年。
(18)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第211、253页。
(19)张锡镇:《2002年东南亚反恐回顾与展望》,《东南亚纵横》2003年第4期。
(20)“Bush Says U.S., Philippines Must Cooperate in War on Terror”, Chicago Tribune (IL), Oct.18, 2003.
(21)曹云华:《九一一事件以来美国与东盟的关系》,《当代亚太》2002年第12期。
(22)翟景升:《印尼参与积极心情复杂》,《参考消息》2002年8月8日。
(23)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第123页。
(24)数据来自世界银行公开数据库统计,参见世界银行数据库网站,http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.GDp.MKTp.CD?end=2015&locations=CN-US-JP&start=2008,2018-12-15.
(25)〈美〉约翰·米尔斯海默著,王义桅、唐小松译《大国的政治悲剧》,上海人民出版社,2008年,第34页。
(26)Mohan Malik, “America and China's Dangerous Game of Geopolitical Poker”, National Interest, June 18, 2014, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-chinas-dangerous-game-geopolitical-poker-10690
(27)〈美〉阿伦·弗里德伯格著,洪曼、张琳、王玉丹译《中美亚洲大博弈》,新华出版社,2012年。
(28)Jeffrey A. Bader ,“Obama's China and Asia policy: A solid double”,https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/08/29/obamas-china-and-asia-policy-a-solid-double
(29)陈奕平、王琛:《大国关系变动下东盟国家的战略选择——基于20世纪60年代末以来历史演变的分析》,杨静林、庄国土主编《东盟发展报告(2017)》,社会科学文献出版社,2018年。
(30)《社评:马哈蒂尔不太可能做中马关系颠覆者》,环球网,http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2018-05/12008080.html
(31)Bhavan Jaipragas,“Malaysia's Chinese Projects: Mahathir To Respect All Agreements”,South China Morning Post, 17 May 2018,http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2146629/malaysias-chinese-projects-mahathir-respect-all-agreements.
(32)Danson Cheong, “Mahathir Calls on China to Help Malaysia with Its ‘Internal Fiscal Problems’”, The Straits Times, Aug.20, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-premier-li-keqiang-says-willing-to-push-bilateral-ties-with-malaysia
(33)冯雷:《特朗普亚太行②|美国是否会推出“重返东南亚战略2.0版”》,澎湃新闻网,2017年11月10日,https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1856563
(34)史田一:《地区风险与东盟国家对冲战略》,《世界经济与政治》2016年第5期。
(35)ASEAN,2015 Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the Establishment of The ASEAN Community, the 27th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, November 22, 2015,http://www.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/KL-Declaration-on-Establishment-of-ASEAN-Community-2015.pdf
(2)〈美〉詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著, 阎学通、陈寒溪译《争论中的国际关系理论》(第5版),世界知识出版社,2003年,第332页。
(3)〈美〉詹姆斯·多尔蒂、小罗伯特·普法尔茨格拉夫著, 阎学通、陈寒溪译《争论中的国际关系理论》(第5版),世界知识出版社,2003年,第336-337页。
(4)陈奕平:《美国特朗普政府的东南亚政策:继承的遗产及走势展望》,《东南亚研究》2017年第1期。
(5)关于新中国成立时期外交政策的文献和论述,可参见毛泽东:《在中国共产党第七届中央委员会第二次全体会议上的报告》(1949年3月5日),《毛泽东选集》,中央文献出版社,1993年,第1435-1436页;周恩来:《新中国的外交》(1949年11月8日),《周恩来外交文选》,世界知识出版,1993年, 第1-7页。
(6)崔丕:《美日在东南亚的战略合作:印度尼西亚债权国会议的缘起与影响》,戴超武主编《亚洲冷战史研究》,东方出版中心,2016年,第164页。
(7)“A Report to the National Security Council by the Secretary of State, NSC 51”, July 1, 1949, Declassified Documents Reference System(DDRS), Document No.: CK2349354016.
(8)Thomas J. Bellows, “The United States and Southeast Asia”,World Affairs, Vol.137, Fall of 1974, pp.99-100.
(9)关于“革命外交”的论述可参见杨奎松《新中国的革命外交思想与实践》,《史学月刊》2010年第2期。
(10)《美帝走狗拼凑的“东南亚国家联盟”出笼,美国主子急忙为其反华反共反人民的反动联盟喝彩叫好》,《人民日报》1967年8月12日。
(11)张锡镇:《东南亚政府与政治》,广西人民出版社,1995年,第400-401页。
(12)Robert J. McMahon, The Limits of Empire: The United States and Southeast Asia Since World War II, New York: Columbia University Press,1999,p.188.
(13)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第119、153页。
(14)Ann Marie Murphy, “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages”,Asian Security, Vol.13, No.3, 2017, p.171.
(15)张金翠:《美国 2006年〈中国军力报告〉与对华新战略》,《世界经济与政治论坛》2006年第5期。
(16)Ann Marie Murphy, “Great Power Rivalries, Domestic Politics and Southeast Asian Foreign Policy: Exploring the Linkages”, Asian Security, Vol.13, No.3, 2017, p.171.
(17)陈奕平、王琛:《大国关系变动下东盟国家的战略选择——基于20世纪60年代末以来历史演变的分析》,杨静林、庄国土主编《东盟发展报告(2017)》,社会科学文献出版社,2018年。
(18)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第211、253页。
(19)张锡镇:《2002年东南亚反恐回顾与展望》,《东南亚纵横》2003年第4期。
(20)“Bush Says U.S., Philippines Must Cooperate in War on Terror”, Chicago Tribune (IL), Oct.18, 2003.
(21)曹云华:《九一一事件以来美国与东盟的关系》,《当代亚太》2002年第12期。
(22)翟景升:《印尼参与积极心情复杂》,《参考消息》2002年8月8日。
(23)陈奕平:《依赖与抗争——冷战后东盟国家对美国战略》,世界知识出版社,2006年,第123页。
(24)数据来自世界银行公开数据库统计,参见世界银行数据库网站,http://data.worldbank.org.cn/indicator/NY.GDp.MKTp.CD?end=2015&locations=CN-US-JP&start=2008,2018-12-15.
(25)〈美〉约翰·米尔斯海默著,王义桅、唐小松译《大国的政治悲剧》,上海人民出版社,2008年,第34页。
(26)Mohan Malik, “America and China's Dangerous Game of Geopolitical Poker”, National Interest, June 18, 2014, https://nationalinterest.org/feature/america-chinas-dangerous-game-geopolitical-poker-10690
(27)〈美〉阿伦·弗里德伯格著,洪曼、张琳、王玉丹译《中美亚洲大博弈》,新华出版社,2012年。
(28)Jeffrey A. Bader ,“Obama's China and Asia policy: A solid double”,https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2016/08/29/obamas-china-and-asia-policy-a-solid-double
(29)陈奕平、王琛:《大国关系变动下东盟国家的战略选择——基于20世纪60年代末以来历史演变的分析》,杨静林、庄国土主编《东盟发展报告(2017)》,社会科学文献出版社,2018年。
(30)《社评:马哈蒂尔不太可能做中马关系颠覆者》,环球网,http://opinion.huanqiu.com/editorial/2018-05/12008080.html
(31)Bhavan Jaipragas,“Malaysia's Chinese Projects: Mahathir To Respect All Agreements”,South China Morning Post, 17 May 2018,http://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/2146629/malaysias-chinese-projects-mahathir-respect-all-agreements.
(32)Danson Cheong, “Mahathir Calls on China to Help Malaysia with Its ‘Internal Fiscal Problems’”, The Straits Times, Aug.20, 2018, https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/chinas-premier-li-keqiang-says-willing-to-push-bilateral-ties-with-malaysia
(33)冯雷:《特朗普亚太行②|美国是否会推出“重返东南亚战略2.0版”》,澎湃新闻网,2017年11月10日,https://www.thepaper.cn/newsDetail_forward_1856563
(34)史田一:《地区风险与东盟国家对冲战略》,《世界经济与政治》2016年第5期。
(35)ASEAN,2015 Kuala Lumpur Declaration on the Establishment of The ASEAN Community, the 27th ASEAN Summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, November 22, 2015,http://www.asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/KL-Declaration-on-Establishment-of-ASEAN-Community-2015.pdf