基于Z-number的煤矿瓦斯重大危险源分级研究
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摘要
为了更加有针对性地防治瓦斯灾害,有必要对瓦斯危险源进行科学评价和治理。从瓦斯危险源导致事故发生的可能性、严重程度和应急救援3个角度,建立瓦斯重大危险源分级评价模型,并结合同煤集团寺塔煤矿实际情况,应用层次分析和基于Z-number模糊数的模糊综合评价方法进行计算。结果表明:该煤矿瓦斯重大危险源的等级为二级,一旦发生瓦斯事故则有可能造成重大事故,须加强监控;各评价指标的排序为瓦斯防控措施>人员意识>作业人数>装备水平>……>医疗条件。结合研究结果构建煤矿瓦斯重大危险源管控模型,该模型在瓦斯危险源等级评价和管理方面具有实用性和有效性,但还有待深入研究细化评价指标体系。
In order to prevent and control gas disaster more pertinently,it is necessary to evaluate and control gas hazard scientifically. A grading evaluation model of major gas hazard was established,from the prospective of the possibility of gas accident,severity and emergency rescue. Combined with the actual situation of Sita Coal Mine of Tongmei Group,the analytical hierarchy process( AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Z-number fuzzy number were applied for calculation. The results show that the grade of major gas hazard in this coal mine is level 2,and once gas accident occurs,it may cause major accident,so the monitoring should be strengthened; the ranking of each evaluation index is gas prevention measure > staff awareness > number of workers > equipment level > … > medical conditions. Combined with the research results,a major gas hazard management and control model of coal mine is constructed,this model is practical and effective in the grade evaluation and management of gas hazard,but it still needs further study to refine the evaluation index system.
In order to prevent and control gas disaster more pertinently,it is necessary to evaluate and control gas hazard scientifically. A grading evaluation model of major gas hazard was established,from the prospective of the possibility of gas accident,severity and emergency rescue. Combined with the actual situation of Sita Coal Mine of Tongmei Group,the analytical hierarchy process( AHP) and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on Z-number fuzzy number were applied for calculation. The results show that the grade of major gas hazard in this coal mine is level 2,and once gas accident occurs,it may cause major accident,so the monitoring should be strengthened; the ranking of each evaluation index is gas prevention measure > staff awareness > number of workers > equipment level > … > medical conditions. Combined with the research results,a major gas hazard management and control model of coal mine is constructed,this model is practical and effective in the grade evaluation and management of gas hazard,but it still needs further study to refine the evaluation index system.
引文
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[2]孙斌.应用灰色关联分析法评价瓦斯爆炸事故危险源[J].煤炭科学技术,2005,33(12):61-64.
[3]曹树刚,王艳平,刘延保,等.基于危险源理论的煤矿瓦斯爆炸风险评价模型[J].煤炭学报,2006,31(4):470-474.
[4]张爱然,罗新荣,杨飞,等.基于模糊神经网络的瓦斯爆炸危险性评价模型[J].黑龙江科技学院学报,2008(1):54-57.
[5]于观华,田水承,王莉,等.基于三类危险源的掘进工作面瓦斯爆炸模糊综合安全评价[J].矿业安全与环保,2013,40(1):111-114.
[6]廖文德,钟勇林,叶俊杰,等.基于AHP-FCE法的煤矿瓦斯灾害危险源定量评价[J].煤炭科学技术,2015,43(6):85-90.
[7]黄冬梅,谭云亮,常西坤,等.基于危险源理论的矿井瓦斯事故灰色—模糊综合评价[J].矿业安全与环保,2016,43(1):41-44.
[8]赵程伟,董雄报,洪青.基于Z-number改进挣值法的工程项目成本进度集成控制分析[J].工程管理学报,2016,30(2):125-130.
[9] ZADEH L A. Anote on Z-numbers[J]. Information Science,2011(14):2923-2932.
[10] CHOU C C. The canonical representation of multiplication operation on triangular fuzzy numbers[J]. Computers and Mathematics with Applications,2003,45(10):1601-1610.
[11]罗新荣,夏宁宁,贾真真.煤矿重大危险源辨识理论与方法研究[J].中国煤炭,2006(3):60-62.
[12]罗云.风险分析与安全评价[M].北京:化学工业出版社,2009.
[13]山西省政府.山西省重大危险源监督管理制度(晋政发〔2008〕30号)[Z].2008.
[14]田水承,姚敏,赵媛媛.煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故风险预控管理探讨[J].煤矿安全,2011,42(1):119-121.
[15]张明广,蒋军成.基于层次分析法的重大危险源模糊综合评价[J].南京工业大学学报(自然科学版),2006(2):31-34.
[16]司学军.华亭煤矿综采工作面危险源辨识与评价研究[D].西安:西安科技大学,2015.
[17]张津嘉,许开立,王贝贝,等.特别重大煤矿瓦斯爆炸事故致因分析及管理模式研究[J].中国安全科学学报,2016,26(2):73-78.