基于标准化管理大坝风险指标体系与评价
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摘要
随着江西省水利工程标准化管理工作的推进,水库管理人员管理理念正逐步转变,然而大坝风险因素复杂多变,在标准化管理要求下,水库风险仍然存在许多不确定性,如何有效衔接标准化管理及风险管理,并进行风险评价是当前的难题。本文基于脆弱度理念,结合标准化管理评价办法,采用层次分析法构建了风险评价指标体系,包含了2项一级风险因素指标、9项二级风险因素指标和22个三级风险因素指标,建立了风险指数评价模型,以油罗口水库为例,分析论证了风险评价模型合理性,为水库标准化管理下开展风险管理提供参考依据。
With the advancement of standardized management of water conservancy projects in Jiangxi Province,the management concept of reservoir managers is gradually changing. However, the risk factors of dams are complex and changeable. Under the requirements of standardized management, there are still many uncertainties in reservoir risk. It is a difficult problem at present to effectively link standardized management with risk management. Based on the concept of vulnerability and the method of standardized management evaluation, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to construct the risk evaluation index system, which includes two firstlevel risk factors, nine second-level risk factors and 22 third-level risk factors. Taking the Youluokou Reservoir as an example, this paper demonstrates and analyses the rationality of the risk evaluation model and provide reference for risk management under reservoir standardization management.
With the advancement of standardized management of water conservancy projects in Jiangxi Province,the management concept of reservoir managers is gradually changing. However, the risk factors of dams are complex and changeable. Under the requirements of standardized management, there are still many uncertainties in reservoir risk. It is a difficult problem at present to effectively link standardized management with risk management. Based on the concept of vulnerability and the method of standardized management evaluation, this paper uses the analytic hierarchy process to construct the risk evaluation index system, which includes two firstlevel risk factors, nine second-level risk factors and 22 third-level risk factors. Taking the Youluokou Reservoir as an example, this paper demonstrates and analyses the rationality of the risk evaluation model and provide reference for risk management under reservoir standardization management.
引文
[1]江西省水利厅建管处.江西省水利工程标准化管理工作总结报[R].2019.
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[2]水利部大坝安全管理中心,江西省水利厅建管处.江西省部分大、中型水库安全现状调研报告[R].2002.
[3]段智芳,傅琼华,李雷.病险水库除险加固排序在江西的示范应用研究[J].江西水利科技,2007(1).
[4]曹飞刚,刘刚,金爱民,等.浙江省水利管理与服务能力现代化发展水平评价[J].水利水电科技进展,2017(9).
[5]陈守煜.模糊识别、决策与聚类理论模型[J].模糊系统与数学,1991(2).
[6]陈守煜,李庆国.一种新的模糊聚类神经网络及其在水资源评价中的应用[J].水利学报,2005(6).
[7]刘洪超,等.我国农村水利现代化评价指标体系与评价模型[J].水利经济,2015(7).