科技与金融耦合系统脆弱性评价——基于湖北省的实证研究
|
摘要
从脆弱性的角度出发,在分析科技与金融耦合系统脆弱性内涵及特征的基础上,建立评价指标体系,运用函数模型对2000—2016年湖北省科技与金融耦合系统脆弱性进行综合评价。结果表明,耦合脆弱性指数经历了一个"先下降、再上升、后下降"的演变过程,总体呈现下降趋势,发生脆弱性事故的可能性较小;敏感性和恢复力对耦合脆弱性的贡献度都很高,从降低敏感性和提高恢复力两个角度提出控制湖北省科技与金融耦合系统脆弱性的措施。
From the perspective of vulnerability, based on the analysis of the connotation and characteristics of the coupling system vulnerability of technology and finance, an evaluation index system is established, and a functional model is used to comprehensively evaluate the coupling system vulnerabilityof technology and finance in Hubei province from 2000 to 2016. The results show as follows: the vulnerability index has undergone an evolutionary process of "decline, rise and decline". Overall, reduction is the dominant trend, and the coupling system of technology and finance is less likely to be adversely affected and damaged. Sensitivity and resilience have a high contribution degree to vulnerability. From the perspective of reducing sensitivity and improving resilience, measures are proposed to control the coupling system vulnerabilityof technology and finance in Hubei province.
From the perspective of vulnerability, based on the analysis of the connotation and characteristics of the coupling system vulnerability of technology and finance, an evaluation index system is established, and a functional model is used to comprehensively evaluate the coupling system vulnerabilityof technology and finance in Hubei province from 2000 to 2016. The results show as follows: the vulnerability index has undergone an evolutionary process of "decline, rise and decline". Overall, reduction is the dominant trend, and the coupling system of technology and finance is less likely to be adversely affected and damaged. Sensitivity and resilience have a high contribution degree to vulnerability. From the perspective of reducing sensitivity and improving resilience, measures are proposed to control the coupling system vulnerabilityof technology and finance in Hubei province.
引文
[1]KARWOWSKI E, STOCKHAMMER E. Financialisation in emerging economies: a systematic overview and comparison with Anglo-Saxon economies[J]. Economic and Political Studies, 2016,5(1):60-86.
[2]SAILLARD A. Venture capital in bank-and market-based economies[R]. Paris:Documents De Travail Du Centre Deconomie De La Sorbonne, 2011.
[3]LEE S, NAM Y, LEE S, et al. Determinants of ICT innovations: a cross-country empirical study[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 110:71-77.
[4]李后建, 张宗益. 金融发展、知识产权保护与技术创新效率:金融市场化的作用[J]. 科研管理, 2014, 35(12):160-167.
[5]王仁祥, 杨曼. 科技创新与金融创新耦合关系及其对经济效率的影响:来自35个国家的经验证据[J]. 软科学, 2015(1):33-36.
[6]徐玉莲, 王玉冬, 林艳. 区域科技创新与科技金融耦合协调度评价研究[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2011, 32(12):116-122.
[7]童藤. 金融创新与科技创新的耦合研究[D]. 武汉:武汉理工大学, 2013.
[8]王仁祥, 杨曼. 中国省域科技与金融耦合效率的时空演进[J]. 经济地理, 2018(2):104-122.
[9]杨懿, 田里. 经济脆弱性内涵演变与评价范式[J]. 学术探索, 2015(6):68-72.
[10]BORIO C. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt?[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014, 45(8):182-198.
[11]AIKMAN D, HALDANE A G, NELSON B D. Curbing the credit cycle[J]. Economic Journal, 2015, 125(585):1072–1109.
[12]BECK T, CHEN T, LIN C, et al. Financial innovation: the bright and the dark sides [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2016, 72: 28-51.
[13]张成思, 张步昙. 再论金融与实体经济:经济金融化视角[J]. 经济学动态, 2015(6):56-66.
[14]王仁祥, 张晗, 杨曼. 科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性指数研究[J]. 广义虚拟经济研究, 2016, 7(4):5-16.
[15]陈晓红, 万鲁河. 城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性作用机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(12):1450-1457.
[2]SAILLARD A. Venture capital in bank-and market-based economies[R]. Paris:Documents De Travail Du Centre Deconomie De La Sorbonne, 2011.
[3]LEE S, NAM Y, LEE S, et al. Determinants of ICT innovations: a cross-country empirical study[J]. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 2016, 110:71-77.
[4]李后建, 张宗益. 金融发展、知识产权保护与技术创新效率:金融市场化的作用[J]. 科研管理, 2014, 35(12):160-167.
[5]王仁祥, 杨曼. 科技创新与金融创新耦合关系及其对经济效率的影响:来自35个国家的经验证据[J]. 软科学, 2015(1):33-36.
[6]徐玉莲, 王玉冬, 林艳. 区域科技创新与科技金融耦合协调度评价研究[J]. 科学学与科学技术管理, 2011, 32(12):116-122.
[7]童藤. 金融创新与科技创新的耦合研究[D]. 武汉:武汉理工大学, 2013.
[8]王仁祥, 杨曼. 中国省域科技与金融耦合效率的时空演进[J]. 经济地理, 2018(2):104-122.
[9]杨懿, 田里. 经济脆弱性内涵演变与评价范式[J]. 学术探索, 2015(6):68-72.
[10]BORIO C. The financial cycle and macroeconomics: what have we learnt?[J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2014, 45(8):182-198.
[11]AIKMAN D, HALDANE A G, NELSON B D. Curbing the credit cycle[J]. Economic Journal, 2015, 125(585):1072–1109.
[12]BECK T, CHEN T, LIN C, et al. Financial innovation: the bright and the dark sides [J]. Journal of Banking & Finance, 2016, 72: 28-51.
[13]张成思, 张步昙. 再论金融与实体经济:经济金融化视角[J]. 经济学动态, 2015(6):56-66.
[14]王仁祥, 张晗, 杨曼. 科技创新与金融创新耦合系统脆弱性指数研究[J]. 广义虚拟经济研究, 2016, 7(4):5-16.
[15]陈晓红, 万鲁河. 城市化与生态环境耦合的脆弱性与协调性作用机制研究[J]. 地理科学, 2013, 33(12):1450-1457.