美国技术性贸易措施如何影响中国企业出口
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摘要
本文利用中国海关进出口数据库和WTO特别贸易通报数据库,基于异质性理论建立多维度固定效应的线性概率模型,考察美国技术性贸易措施对中国企业出口决策和企业出口贸易额的影响。研究发现:第一,美国实施的技术性贸易措施对中国出口决策和出口贸易额的负面影响范围广、程度深,通过划分出口产品结构与企业产权性质,本文进一步发现高技术产品和私营企业受到的负面影响较大;第二,异质性企业理论成立,且美国实施的技术性贸易措施对中国企业不存在歧视。基于此,本文提出中国应利用制造业升级及自贸区战略的契机,努力缩小与美国的标准差距,并合理有效利用技术性贸易措施,保护本国的相关产业。
This paper uses the China Customs Import and Export Database with the WTO Special Trade Concerns Database to establish a linear probability model of multi-dimensional fixed effects based on heterogeneity theory, and examines the impact of U.S.TBT measures on Chinese enterprises' export decisions and export value.The study found as follows: First, the negative impact of the TBT measures implemented by the United States on China's export decision-making and export trade volume is wide and deep.By dividing the structure of export products and the nature of corporate property, this paper further discovers that high-tech products and private enterprises have received much greater negative impact.Second, the theory of heterogeneous enterprises is established.Large-scale enterprises can cope with the cost increase brought by TBT measures.In addition, TBT measures implemented by the United States are not discriminatory against Chinese companies.Based on this, this paper proposes that China should take advantage of the manufacturing upgrade and the free trade zone strategy, strive to narrow the gap with the United States standards, and effectively use TBT measures to protect relevant industries in domestic.
This paper uses the China Customs Import and Export Database with the WTO Special Trade Concerns Database to establish a linear probability model of multi-dimensional fixed effects based on heterogeneity theory, and examines the impact of U.S.TBT measures on Chinese enterprises' export decisions and export value.The study found as follows: First, the negative impact of the TBT measures implemented by the United States on China's export decision-making and export trade volume is wide and deep.By dividing the structure of export products and the nature of corporate property, this paper further discovers that high-tech products and private enterprises have received much greater negative impact.Second, the theory of heterogeneous enterprises is established.Large-scale enterprises can cope with the cost increase brought by TBT measures.In addition, TBT measures implemented by the United States are not discriminatory against Chinese companies.Based on this, this paper proposes that China should take advantage of the manufacturing upgrade and the free trade zone strategy, strive to narrow the gap with the United States standards, and effectively use TBT measures to protect relevant industries in domestic.
引文
鲍晓华、朱达明,2014:《技术性贸易壁垒与出口的边际效应——基于产业贸易流量的检验》,《经济学(季刊)》第2期。
聂辉华、江艇、杨汝岱,2012:《中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题》,《世界经济》第5期。
Arkolakis,C.,2010,“Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade”,Journal of Political Economy,118(6):1151-1199.
Beghin,J.C.,A.C.Disdier and S.Marette,2015,“Trade Restrictiveness Indices in the Presence of Externalities:An Application to Non-tariff Measures”,Canadian Journal of Economics,48(4):1513-1536.
Bernard,A.B.,and J.B.Jensen,2004,“Why Some Firms Export”,Review of Economics & Statistics,86(2):561-569.
Bernard,A.B.,and J.Wagner,2001,“Export Entry and Exit by German Firms”,Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,137(1):105-123.
Broocks,A.,and J.V.Biesebroeck,2017,“The Impact of Export Promotion on Export Market Entry”,Journal of International Economics,(107):19-33.
Cadot,O.,and J.Gourdon,2015,“Assessing the Price-raising Effect of Non-tariff Measures in Africa”,Journal of African Economies,23(4):425-463.
Chen,M.X.,and A.Mattoo,2008,“Regionalism in Standards:Good or Bad for Trade?”,Canadian Journal of Economics,(3):838-863.
Chen,M.X.,T.Otsuki,and J.S.Wilson,2006,“Do Standards Matter for Export Success?”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.1246.
Disdier,A.,L.Fontagné,and M.Mimouni,2008,“The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade:Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices,90(2):336-350.
Fischer,R.,and P.Serra,2000,“Standards and Protection”,Journal of International Economics,52(2):377-400.
Fontagné,L.,G.Orefice,and R.Piermartini,2013,“Product Standards and Margins of Trade:Firm-level Evidence”,Journal of International Economics,97(1):29-44.
Gebrehiwet,Y.,S.Ngqangweni,and J.F.Kirsten,2007,“Quantifying the Trade Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Regulations of OECD Countries on South African Food Exports”,Agrekon,46(1):1-17.
Guimaraes,P.,and P.Portugal,2011,“A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-dimensional Fixed Effects”,Stata Journal,10(4):628-649.
Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and S.R.Yeaple,2004,“Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms”,American Economic Review,94(1):300-316.
Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and Y.Rubinstein,2008,“Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,123(2):441-487.
Kee,H.L.,A.Nicita,and M.Olarreaga,2009,“Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices”,Economic Journal,119(534):172-199.
Krugman,P.,1989,“Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates”,European Economic Review,33(5):1031-1046.
Lall,S.,2000,“The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports,1985-98”,Oxford Development Studies,28(3):337-369.
Markusen,J.,and M.Ganlandt,2001,“Standards and Related Regulations in International Trade:A Modelling Approach”,NBER Working Paper No.8346.
Martincus,C.V.,and J.Carballo,2008,“Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries?Firm-level Evidence on The Intensive and The Extensive Margins of Exports”,Journal of International Economics,76(1):89-106.
Martincus,C.V.,and J.Carballo,2011,“Export Promotion:Bundled Services Work Better”,World Economy,33(12):1718-1756.
Maskus,K.E.,T.Otsuki,and J.S.Wilson,2005,“The Cost of Compliance with Product Standards for Firms in Developing Countries:An Econometric Study”,World Bank Working Paper No.2421.
Maur,J.C.,and B.Shepherd,2011,“Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development:A Handbook”,World Bank Working Paper No.1992.
Mayer,T.,and G.I.P.Ottaviano,2008,“The Happy Few:The Internationalization of European Firms”,Intereconomics,43(3):135-148.
Melitz,M.J.,2003,“The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity”,Econometrica,71(6):1695-1725.
Reyes,J.,2011,“International Harmonization of Product Standards and Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.2552.
Roberts,M.J.,and J.R.Tybout,1997,“The Decision to Export in Colombia:An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs”,American Economic Review,(4):545-564.
Spearot,A.C.,2013,“Market Access,Investment and Heterogeneous Firms”,International Economic Review,54(2):601-627.
① 所谓非关税措施,指的是有别于普通关税的政策措施。这些措施可能对一国国际货物贸易产生潜在的经济影响,改变贸易量或价格或同时改变这两个方面,主要的非关税措施包括卫生和植物检疫措施(SPS)和技术性措施(TBT)。“双反”调查等贸易调查程序也属于非关税措施的一种。
(1)MAST:全称为Multi-agency Support Team,是联合国贸发组织中的一个群体。
(2)该数据库的地址为:http://i-tip.unctad.org。频数比例 (frequency ratio)是指进口国的特定商品部门受到 TBT 影响的比例,可以用某商品部门遭遇 TBT 的产品数量占该部门内产品税目总数的比重来衡量。进口覆盖率(import coverage ratio)是指以进口额为权重的频数比率,可以用某部门遭遇 TBT 的进口价值占该部门进口总值的比重来衡量。
(3)reghdfe为非官方stata命令,下载地址为:https://github.com/sergiocorreia/reghdfe。
聂辉华、江艇、杨汝岱,2012:《中国工业企业数据库的使用现状和潜在问题》,《世界经济》第5期。
Arkolakis,C.,2010,“Market Penetration Costs and the New Consumers Margin in International Trade”,Journal of Political Economy,118(6):1151-1199.
Beghin,J.C.,A.C.Disdier and S.Marette,2015,“Trade Restrictiveness Indices in the Presence of Externalities:An Application to Non-tariff Measures”,Canadian Journal of Economics,48(4):1513-1536.
Bernard,A.B.,and J.B.Jensen,2004,“Why Some Firms Export”,Review of Economics & Statistics,86(2):561-569.
Bernard,A.B.,and J.Wagner,2001,“Export Entry and Exit by German Firms”,Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv,137(1):105-123.
Broocks,A.,and J.V.Biesebroeck,2017,“The Impact of Export Promotion on Export Market Entry”,Journal of International Economics,(107):19-33.
Cadot,O.,and J.Gourdon,2015,“Assessing the Price-raising Effect of Non-tariff Measures in Africa”,Journal of African Economies,23(4):425-463.
Chen,M.X.,and A.Mattoo,2008,“Regionalism in Standards:Good or Bad for Trade?”,Canadian Journal of Economics,(3):838-863.
Chen,M.X.,T.Otsuki,and J.S.Wilson,2006,“Do Standards Matter for Export Success?”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper,No.1246.
Disdier,A.,L.Fontagné,and M.Mimouni,2008,“The Impact of Regulations on Agricultural Trade:Evidence from the SPS and TBT Agreements”,American Journal of Agricultural Economics Appendices,90(2):336-350.
Fischer,R.,and P.Serra,2000,“Standards and Protection”,Journal of International Economics,52(2):377-400.
Fontagné,L.,G.Orefice,and R.Piermartini,2013,“Product Standards and Margins of Trade:Firm-level Evidence”,Journal of International Economics,97(1):29-44.
Gebrehiwet,Y.,S.Ngqangweni,and J.F.Kirsten,2007,“Quantifying the Trade Effect of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Regulations of OECD Countries on South African Food Exports”,Agrekon,46(1):1-17.
Guimaraes,P.,and P.Portugal,2011,“A Simple Feasible Alternative Procedure to Estimate Models with High-dimensional Fixed Effects”,Stata Journal,10(4):628-649.
Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and S.R.Yeaple,2004,“Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms”,American Economic Review,94(1):300-316.
Helpman,E.,M.J.Melitz,and Y.Rubinstein,2008,“Estimating Trade Flows:Trading Partners and Trading Volumes”,Quarterly Journal of Economics,123(2):441-487.
Kee,H.L.,A.Nicita,and M.Olarreaga,2009,“Estimating Trade Restrictiveness Indices”,Economic Journal,119(534):172-199.
Krugman,P.,1989,“Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates”,European Economic Review,33(5):1031-1046.
Lall,S.,2000,“The Technological Structure and Performance of Developing Country Manufactured Exports,1985-98”,Oxford Development Studies,28(3):337-369.
Markusen,J.,and M.Ganlandt,2001,“Standards and Related Regulations in International Trade:A Modelling Approach”,NBER Working Paper No.8346.
Martincus,C.V.,and J.Carballo,2008,“Is Export Promotion Effective in Developing Countries?Firm-level Evidence on The Intensive and The Extensive Margins of Exports”,Journal of International Economics,76(1):89-106.
Martincus,C.V.,and J.Carballo,2011,“Export Promotion:Bundled Services Work Better”,World Economy,33(12):1718-1756.
Maskus,K.E.,T.Otsuki,and J.S.Wilson,2005,“The Cost of Compliance with Product Standards for Firms in Developing Countries:An Econometric Study”,World Bank Working Paper No.2421.
Maur,J.C.,and B.Shepherd,2011,“Preferential Trade Agreement Policies for Development:A Handbook”,World Bank Working Paper No.1992.
Mayer,T.,and G.I.P.Ottaviano,2008,“The Happy Few:The Internationalization of European Firms”,Intereconomics,43(3):135-148.
Melitz,M.J.,2003,“The Impact of Trade on Intra-industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity”,Econometrica,71(6):1695-1725.
Reyes,J.,2011,“International Harmonization of Product Standards and Firm Heterogeneity in International Trade”,World Bank Policy Research Working Paper No.2552.
Roberts,M.J.,and J.R.Tybout,1997,“The Decision to Export in Colombia:An Empirical Model of Entry with Sunk Costs”,American Economic Review,(4):545-564.
Spearot,A.C.,2013,“Market Access,Investment and Heterogeneous Firms”,International Economic Review,54(2):601-627.
① 所谓非关税措施,指的是有别于普通关税的政策措施。这些措施可能对一国国际货物贸易产生潜在的经济影响,改变贸易量或价格或同时改变这两个方面,主要的非关税措施包括卫生和植物检疫措施(SPS)和技术性措施(TBT)。“双反”调查等贸易调查程序也属于非关税措施的一种。
(1)MAST:全称为Multi-agency Support Team,是联合国贸发组织中的一个群体。
(2)该数据库的地址为:http://i-tip.unctad.org。频数比例 (frequency ratio)是指进口国的特定商品部门受到 TBT 影响的比例,可以用某商品部门遭遇 TBT 的产品数量占该部门内产品税目总数的比重来衡量。进口覆盖率(import coverage ratio)是指以进口额为权重的频数比率,可以用某部门遭遇 TBT 的进口价值占该部门进口总值的比重来衡量。
(3)reghdfe为非官方stata命令,下载地址为:https://github.com/sergiocorreia/reghdfe。