环境规制、农业绿色生产率与粮食安全
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摘要
绿色发展将成为中国未来粮食安全保障的重点内容,衡量农业绿色生产率有利于判断当前的发展位点,且合理的农业环境规制是促进绿色生产效率提升和解决粮食供需矛盾的有效途径。本文引入碳排放交易和排污费征收标准,在将考虑了环境成本的农业绿色GDP作为产出运用随机前沿函数模型(SFA)核算中国2000—2015年省级农业绿色全要素生产率的基础上,采用GMM方法检验了农业绿色全要素生产率与粮食安全保障程度之间是否具有因果关系,并构建联立方程模型具体分析了两者之间的影响机制,以及不同环境规制因素对两者的驱动机制。结果表明:①2000—2015年间全国平均农业绿色全要素生产率年均增长4. 10%,呈现明显的时序波动性以及地区之间的梯度性特征;②农业绿色全要素生产率和粮食安全之间存在双向因果关系;③农业绿色生产率的提高会降低粮食安全的保障程度,而过度重视粮食安全保障反过来会抑制农业绿色生产率的增长;④命令控制型环境政策规制对农业绿色全要素生产率和粮食安全均产生正向影响,激励性碳排放交易规制对农业绿色全要素生产率和粮食安全分别产生了正向作用和负向作用,自愿性环保投资规制仅对农业绿色全要素生产率产生了显著正向影响。因此,精心设计环境监管工具,改善环境规制政策的适度性和适用性,建立强化能够充分调动农民实施清洁生产的激励机制和市场化排污交易机制,大力整合不同类型环境法规从而构建均衡的"环境规制组合"体系,是提高农业绿色生产率增长和保障粮食安全可持续发展的关键。
Green development will become the key content of China's future grain security protection. Measuring agricultural green TFP( total factor productivity) is conducive to judging the current development site,and reasonable agricultural environmental regulation is an effective way to promote green productivity and solve the contradiction between food supply and demand. This paper introduced carbon emissions trading and sewage charges collection standards,and analyzed China's provincial agricultural green TFP from 2000 to 2015 by using stochastic frontier function model( SFA) and considering environmental costs as agricultural green GDP. It used GMM method to test whether there was a causal relationship between agricultural green TFP and grain security,and constructed the simultaneous equations model to analyze the influence mechanism between them and the driving mechanism of different environmental regulation factors to them. The results showed that: ①the national average agricultural green TFP increased by 4. 1%annually during the period from 2000 to 2015,showing obvious time-series volatility and gradient characteristics between regions; ②there was a two-way causal relationship between agricultural green TFP and grain security; ③the increase in agricultural green TFP would reduce the level of grain security,while over-emphasizing grain security would in turn inhibit the growth of agricultural green TFP; ④ command controlled environmental policy regulation had a positive impact on agricultural green TFP and grain security,incentive carbon emissions trading regulations had a positive on agricultural green TFP and negative effect on grain security,and the regulation of environmental protection investment only had a positive effect on agricultural green TFP. Therefore, designing environmental monitoring tools carefully, improving the appropriateness and applicability of environmental regulation policies,establishing and strengthening incentive mechanisms and market-based emissions trading mechanisms that can fully mobilize farmers to implement cleaner production, and integrating different types of environmental regulations vigorously to create a balanced‘Environmental Regulation Combination'System,are the key to improve the growth of agricultural green TFP and ensure the sustainable development of grain security.
Green development will become the key content of China's future grain security protection. Measuring agricultural green TFP( total factor productivity) is conducive to judging the current development site,and reasonable agricultural environmental regulation is an effective way to promote green productivity and solve the contradiction between food supply and demand. This paper introduced carbon emissions trading and sewage charges collection standards,and analyzed China's provincial agricultural green TFP from 2000 to 2015 by using stochastic frontier function model( SFA) and considering environmental costs as agricultural green GDP. It used GMM method to test whether there was a causal relationship between agricultural green TFP and grain security,and constructed the simultaneous equations model to analyze the influence mechanism between them and the driving mechanism of different environmental regulation factors to them. The results showed that: ①the national average agricultural green TFP increased by 4. 1%annually during the period from 2000 to 2015,showing obvious time-series volatility and gradient characteristics between regions; ②there was a two-way causal relationship between agricultural green TFP and grain security; ③the increase in agricultural green TFP would reduce the level of grain security,while over-emphasizing grain security would in turn inhibit the growth of agricultural green TFP; ④ command controlled environmental policy regulation had a positive impact on agricultural green TFP and grain security,incentive carbon emissions trading regulations had a positive on agricultural green TFP and negative effect on grain security,and the regulation of environmental protection investment only had a positive effect on agricultural green TFP. Therefore, designing environmental monitoring tools carefully, improving the appropriateness and applicability of environmental regulation policies,establishing and strengthening incentive mechanisms and market-based emissions trading mechanisms that can fully mobilize farmers to implement cleaner production, and integrating different types of environmental regulations vigorously to create a balanced‘Environmental Regulation Combination'System,are the key to improve the growth of agricultural green TFP and ensure the sustainable development of grain security.
引文
[1]全炯振.中国农业全要素生产率增长的实证分析:1978-2007年——基于随机前沿分析(SFA)方法[J].中国农村经济,2009(9):36-47.
[2]OSKAM A.Productivity measurement,incorporating environmental effects of agricultural production[J].Developments in agricultural economics,1991,7(2):186-204.
[3]BALL V E,NEHRING R.Incorporating environmental impacts in the measurement of agricultural productivity growth[J].Journal of agricultural&resource economics,2004,29(3):436-460.
[4]HOANG V N,COELLI T.Measurement of agricultural total factor productivity growth incorporating environmental factors:a nutrients balance approach[J].Journal of environmental economics&management,2011,62(3):462-474.
[5]KUOSMANEN T.Green productivity in agriculture:a critical synthesis[R].Aalto University,2013:19-21.
[6]JAFFA A B,PETERSON S R,PORTNEY P R,et al.Environmental regulation and the competitiveness of U.S.manufacturing:what does the evidence tell U.S.?[J].Journal of economic literature,1995,33(1):132-163.
[7]PORTER M E.America’s green strategy[J].Scientific American,1991,264(4):193-246.
[8]XIE R H,YUAN Y J,HUANG J J.Different types of environmental regulations and heterogeneous influence on‘green’productivity:evidence from China[J].Ecological economics,2017,132:104-112.
[9]潘丹.考虑资源环境因素的中国农业生产率研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2012.
[10]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.基于环境污染约束视角的农业技术效率测度[J].自然资源学报,2012(9):1580-1589.
[11]祝志勇,幸汉龙.环境规制与中国粮食产量关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线[J].云南财经大学学报,2017,33(4):64-72.
[12]王奇,王会,陈海丹.中国农业绿色全要素生产率变化研究:1992-2010年[J].经济评论,2012(5):24-33.
[13]李谷成.中国农业的绿色生产率革命:1978-2008年[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(2):537-558.
[14]BATTESE G E,COELLI T J.Frontier production functions,technical efficiency and panel data:with application to paddy farmers in India[J].Journal of productivity analysis,1992,3(1-2):153-169.
[15]BATTESE G E,COELLI T J.A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data[J].Empirical economics,1995,20(2):325-332.
[16]TOLENTINI A L.New concepts of productivity and its improvement[C].Budapest:European Productivity Network Seminar,2004:13-14.
[17]胡鞍钢,郑京海,高宇宁,等.考虑环境因素的省级技术效率排名(1999-2005)[J].经济学(季刊),2008(3):933-960.
[18]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(8):80-86.
[19]赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(9):1184-1187.
[20]陈敏鹏,陈吉宁,赖斯芸.中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(6):751-755.
[21]吕新业,冀县卿.关于中国粮食安全问题的再思考[J].农业经济问题,2013(9):17-26.
[22]钟甫宁.正确认识粮食安全和农业劳动力成本问题[J].农业经济问题,2016(1):4-9.
[23]ARELLANO M,BOND S.Some tests of specification for panel data:Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J].Review of economic studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[24]BLUNDELL R,BOND S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Economics papers,1995,87(1):115-143.
[25]HOLTZEAKIN D,SCHWARTZ A E.Spatial productivity spillovers from public infrastructure:evidence,from state highways[C].National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc,1995:459-468.
[26]赵玉民,朱方明,贺立龙.环境规制的界定、分类与演进研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(6):85-90.
[27]YANG Z,FAN M,SHAO S,et al.Does carbon intensity constraint policy improve industrial green production performance in China?a Quasi-DID analysis[J].Energy economics,2017,68(C):271-282.
[28]ZELLNER A,THEIL H.Three-stage least squares:simultaneous estimation of simultaneous equations[J].Econometrica,1962,30(1):54-78.
[29]GREENE W H.Econometric analysis:fourth edition[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2000:747-754.
[30]朱平芳,张征宇,姜国麟.FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究[J].经济研究,2011(6):133-145.
[31]HALL R E,JONES C I.Why do some countries produce much more output per worker than others?[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1999,114(1):83-116.
[32]李谷成.人力资本与中国区域农业全要素生产率增长——基于DEA视角的实证分析[J].财经研究,2009,35(8):115-128.
[33]杨锦英,韩晓娜,方行明.中国粮食生产效率实证研究[J].经济学动态,2013(6):47-53.
[34]沈能.环境效率、行业异质性与最优规制强度——中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验[J].中国工业经济,2012(3):56-68.
[2]OSKAM A.Productivity measurement,incorporating environmental effects of agricultural production[J].Developments in agricultural economics,1991,7(2):186-204.
[3]BALL V E,NEHRING R.Incorporating environmental impacts in the measurement of agricultural productivity growth[J].Journal of agricultural&resource economics,2004,29(3):436-460.
[4]HOANG V N,COELLI T.Measurement of agricultural total factor productivity growth incorporating environmental factors:a nutrients balance approach[J].Journal of environmental economics&management,2011,62(3):462-474.
[5]KUOSMANEN T.Green productivity in agriculture:a critical synthesis[R].Aalto University,2013:19-21.
[6]JAFFA A B,PETERSON S R,PORTNEY P R,et al.Environmental regulation and the competitiveness of U.S.manufacturing:what does the evidence tell U.S.?[J].Journal of economic literature,1995,33(1):132-163.
[7]PORTER M E.America’s green strategy[J].Scientific American,1991,264(4):193-246.
[8]XIE R H,YUAN Y J,HUANG J J.Different types of environmental regulations and heterogeneous influence on‘green’productivity:evidence from China[J].Ecological economics,2017,132:104-112.
[9]潘丹.考虑资源环境因素的中国农业生产率研究[D].南京:南京农业大学,2012.
[10]梁流涛,曲福田,冯淑怡.基于环境污染约束视角的农业技术效率测度[J].自然资源学报,2012(9):1580-1589.
[11]祝志勇,幸汉龙.环境规制与中国粮食产量关系的研究——基于环境库兹涅茨倒U型曲线[J].云南财经大学学报,2017,33(4):64-72.
[12]王奇,王会,陈海丹.中国农业绿色全要素生产率变化研究:1992-2010年[J].经济评论,2012(5):24-33.
[13]李谷成.中国农业的绿色生产率革命:1978-2008年[J].经济学(季刊),2014,13(2):537-558.
[14]BATTESE G E,COELLI T J.Frontier production functions,technical efficiency and panel data:with application to paddy farmers in India[J].Journal of productivity analysis,1992,3(1-2):153-169.
[15]BATTESE G E,COELLI T J.A model for technical inefficiency effects in a stochastic frontier production function for panel data[J].Empirical economics,1995,20(2):325-332.
[16]TOLENTINI A L.New concepts of productivity and its improvement[C].Budapest:European Productivity Network Seminar,2004:13-14.
[17]胡鞍钢,郑京海,高宇宁,等.考虑环境因素的省级技术效率排名(1999-2005)[J].经济学(季刊),2008(3):933-960.
[18]李波,张俊飚,李海鹏.中国农业碳排放时空特征及影响因素分解[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011,21(8):80-86.
[19]赖斯芸,杜鹏飞,陈吉宁.基于单元分析的非点源污染调查评估方法[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2004,44(9):1184-1187.
[20]陈敏鹏,陈吉宁,赖斯芸.中国农业和农村污染的清单分析与空间特征识别[J].中国环境科学,2006,26(6):751-755.
[21]吕新业,冀县卿.关于中国粮食安全问题的再思考[J].农业经济问题,2013(9):17-26.
[22]钟甫宁.正确认识粮食安全和农业劳动力成本问题[J].农业经济问题,2016(1):4-9.
[23]ARELLANO M,BOND S.Some tests of specification for panel data:Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations[J].Review of economic studies,1991,58(2):277-297.
[24]BLUNDELL R,BOND S.Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models[J].Economics papers,1995,87(1):115-143.
[25]HOLTZEAKIN D,SCHWARTZ A E.Spatial productivity spillovers from public infrastructure:evidence,from state highways[C].National Bureau of Economic Research,Inc,1995:459-468.
[26]赵玉民,朱方明,贺立龙.环境规制的界定、分类与演进研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2009,19(6):85-90.
[27]YANG Z,FAN M,SHAO S,et al.Does carbon intensity constraint policy improve industrial green production performance in China?a Quasi-DID analysis[J].Energy economics,2017,68(C):271-282.
[28]ZELLNER A,THEIL H.Three-stage least squares:simultaneous estimation of simultaneous equations[J].Econometrica,1962,30(1):54-78.
[29]GREENE W H.Econometric analysis:fourth edition[M].Upper Saddle River,NJ:Prentice Hall,2000:747-754.
[30]朱平芳,张征宇,姜国麟.FDI与环境规制:基于地方分权视角的实证研究[J].经济研究,2011(6):133-145.
[31]HALL R E,JONES C I.Why do some countries produce much more output per worker than others?[J].Quarterly journal of economics,1999,114(1):83-116.
[32]李谷成.人力资本与中国区域农业全要素生产率增长——基于DEA视角的实证分析[J].财经研究,2009,35(8):115-128.
[33]杨锦英,韩晓娜,方行明.中国粮食生产效率实证研究[J].经济学动态,2013(6):47-53.
[34]沈能.环境效率、行业异质性与最优规制强度——中国工业行业面板数据的非线性检验[J].中国工业经济,2012(3):56-68.