胡杨叶黄期对气候变化的时空响应与区域差异
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摘要
利用中国绿洲的41个胡杨分布区地面气象站点近57 a的逐日平均气温资料,运用线性趋势、Arc GIS的反距离加权(IDW)插值法、Morlet小波功率谱、Mann-Kendall检验和相关分析法等方法,分析中国绿洲胡杨叶黄期的时空特征、区域增暖响应与差异。结果表明:近57 a来,中国绿洲胡杨叶黄起止日均明显推迟、叶黄期呈延长的变化趋势,变化倾向率分别为0. 72 d·(10a)~(-1)、1. 39 d·(10a)~(-1)(α≥0. 05)和0. 66 d·(10a)~(-1);胡杨叶黄起止日均呈自西南向东北逐渐提前的变化规律,其中,柴达木绿洲推迟趋势最明显,新疆南部绿洲不明显。除新疆北部外,叶黄期呈自南向北逐渐缩短的变化规律,空间差异十分明显;且分别存在2. 2 a、3. 0 a和5. 2～5. 6 a的短周期,与大气环流2～4 a和厄尔尼诺2～7 a的周期相吻合;胡杨叶黄起止日及叶黄期分别在2003年、1990年、1961年发生了突变,各绿洲区突变不尽相同;研究区胡杨叶黄起止日与叶黄期分别与前期(6—8月和7—9月)月平均气温、所在月(9—11月)平均气温呈显著相关,相关系数分别为0. 703、0. 697和0. 715 (α≥0. 001)。反映了中国绿洲胡杨叶黄期对全球气候变暖的响应既敏感又有区域差异。
In this paper,the average daily temperature data from 41 meteorological stations in Chinese oases where the Populus euphratica trees grow during the period from 1960 to 2016 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal response of the leaf-yellow period of P. euphratica to climate change and its regional difference. In the study the methods of multi-year trend line,inverse distance weighted interpolation( IDW),Morlet wavelet power spectrum,Mann-Kendall mutation test and correlation analysis were applied. The results revealed that the beginning and ending dates of the leaf yellow of P. euphratica were postponed over the last 57 years,and the leaf-yellow period was gradually prolonged. The change trend rates were 0. 72,1. 39( α≥0. 05) and 0. 66 days/decade respectively,which revealed that the beginning and ending dates of the leaf yellow of P. euphratica became earlier along a southwestnortheast transect of Chinese oases. Especially the postponement trend was the most obvious in the Qaidam Oasis but not in the oases in south Xinjiang. In addition to north Xinjiang,the leaf-yellow period became shorter along a southnorth transect of Chinese oases,and the spatial disparity was extremely significant. There were the 2. 2-,3. 0-and5. 2-5. 6-year short cycles of the beginning and ending dates of leaf yellow of P. euphratica,and they were consistent with the 2-4-year general atmospheric circulation and the 2-7-year El Ni1o events. Mutations of the starting and ending dates and periods of leaf yellow of P. euphratica occurred in 2003,1990 and 1961 respectively,but they were different from different oases. There were the significant correlations among the starting and ending dates and period of leaf yellow of P. euphratica and the mean monthly temperatures in the periods from June to August,from July to September and from September to November,and their correlation coefficients were 0. 703,0. 697,and 0. 715( α≥0. 001),respectively. The results showed that the response of the leaf-yellow period of P. euphratica to global warming was sensitive and regionally different.
In this paper,the average daily temperature data from 41 meteorological stations in Chinese oases where the Populus euphratica trees grow during the period from 1960 to 2016 were used to analyze the spatiotemporal response of the leaf-yellow period of P. euphratica to climate change and its regional difference. In the study the methods of multi-year trend line,inverse distance weighted interpolation( IDW),Morlet wavelet power spectrum,Mann-Kendall mutation test and correlation analysis were applied. The results revealed that the beginning and ending dates of the leaf yellow of P. euphratica were postponed over the last 57 years,and the leaf-yellow period was gradually prolonged. The change trend rates were 0. 72,1. 39( α≥0. 05) and 0. 66 days/decade respectively,which revealed that the beginning and ending dates of the leaf yellow of P. euphratica became earlier along a southwestnortheast transect of Chinese oases. Especially the postponement trend was the most obvious in the Qaidam Oasis but not in the oases in south Xinjiang. In addition to north Xinjiang,the leaf-yellow period became shorter along a southnorth transect of Chinese oases,and the spatial disparity was extremely significant. There were the 2. 2-,3. 0-and5. 2-5. 6-year short cycles of the beginning and ending dates of leaf yellow of P. euphratica,and they were consistent with the 2-4-year general atmospheric circulation and the 2-7-year El Ni1o events. Mutations of the starting and ending dates and periods of leaf yellow of P. euphratica occurred in 2003,1990 and 1961 respectively,but they were different from different oases. There were the significant correlations among the starting and ending dates and period of leaf yellow of P. euphratica and the mean monthly temperatures in the periods from June to August,from July to September and from September to November,and their correlation coefficients were 0. 703,0. 697,and 0. 715( α≥0. 001),respectively. The results showed that the response of the leaf-yellow period of P. euphratica to global warming was sensitive and regionally different.
引文
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[17]雷俊,姚玉璧,孙润,等.黄土高原半干旱区物候变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(1):1-8.[Lei Jun,Yao Yubi,Sun Run,et al.Phenological variation and its response to climate warming in Semi-Arid Region of Loess Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(1):1-8.]
[18]Deng C H,Bai H Y,Zhai D P,et al.Variation in plant phenology in the Qinling Mountains from 1964-2015 in the context of climate change[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(23):7 882-7 893.
[19]魏庆莒.胡杨[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1990:7-21.[Wei Qingju.Populus euphratica[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,1990:7-21.]
[20]王世绩,陈炳浩,李护群.胡杨林[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1995:16-18.[Wang Shiji,Chen Binghao,Li Huqun.Populus euphratica[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,1995:16-18.]
[21]刘树宝,陈亚宁,陈亚鹏,等.黑河下游荒漠河岸林不同林龄胡杨对脉冲式降雨的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):172-178.[Liu Shubao,Chen Yaning,Chen Yapeng,et al.Response of Populus euphratica at different ages to rainfall pulses in the desert riparian forest of the lower reaches of the Heihe Riwer[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(1):172-178.]
[22]Zhang W X,Liu P X,Feng Q R,et al.The spatiotemporal responses of Populus euphratica to global warming in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2015[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2018,28(5):579-594.
[23]刘普幸,杨泉.敦煌绿洲1955年至2010年胡杨年生长季对气候变化的响应[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):566-571.[Liu Puxing,Yang Quan.Response of the annual growing season of Populus euphratica to climate change in Dunhuang Oasis from 1955 to2010[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):566-571.]
[24]买尔燕古丽·阿不都热合曼,艾里西尔·库尔班,阿迪力·阿不来提,等.塔里木河下游胡杨物候特征观测[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(4):525-530.[Abdurahman M,Kurban A,Ablat A,et al.Study on phenological characters of Populus euphratica Oliv in the lower reaches of the Tarim River[J].Arid Zone Research,2008,25(4):525-530.]
[25]申元村,汪久文,伍光和,等.中国绿洲[M].开封:河南大学出版社,2001.[Shen Yuancun,Wang Jiuwen,Wu Guanghe,et al.Oasis of China[M].Kaifeng:Henan University Press,2001.]
[26]关学锋,孙卫国,李敏姣,等.1965-2012年新疆北部地区气候变化及其对北极涛动的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):681-689.[Guan Xuefeng,Sun Weiguo,Li Minjiao,et al.Climate change in North Xinjiang and its response to Arctic Oscillation during the period of 1965-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):681-689.]
[27]徐浩杰,杨太保.1981-2010年柴达木盆地气候要素变化特征及湖泊和植被响应[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):868-879.[Xu Haojie,Yang Taibao.Climate factors change and its impact on lake area and vegetation growth in the Qaidam Basin during1981-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):868-879.]
[28]李景林,张山清,普宗朝,等.近50 a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(2):228-237.[Li Jinglin,Zhang Shanqing,Pu Zongchao,et al.Spatial-temporal variation of seasonal and annual air temperature in Xinjiang during 1961-2010[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(2):228-237.]
[2]施奈勒F.植物物候学[M].北京:科学出版社,1965:46-50.[Schnelle F.Plant Phenology[M].Beijing:Science Press,1965:46-50.]
[3]Walther G R,Post E,Convey P,et al.Ecological responses to recent climate change[J].Nature,2002,416(6 879):389.
[4]Kathuroju N,White M A,Symanzik J,et al.On the use of the advanced very high resolution radiometer for development of prognostic land surface phenology models[J].Ecological Modelling,2007,201(2):144-156.
[5]高志强,刘纪远.1980-2000年中国LUCC对气候变化的响应[J].地理学报,2006,61(8):865-872.[Gao Zhiqiang,Liu Jiyuan.The LUCC responses to climate changes in China from1980 to 2000[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(8):865-872.]
[6]徐雨晴,陆佩玲,于强.气候变化对植物物候影响的研究进展[J].资源科学,2004,26(1):129-136.[Xu Yuqing,Lu Peiling,Yu Qiang.Review and prospect in the researches of influence of climate change on plant phenology[J].Resources Science,2004,26(1):129-136.]
[7]Cleland E E,Chiariello N R,Loarie S R,et al.Diverse responses of phenology to global changes in a grassland ecosystem[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,2006,103(37):13 740-13 744.
[8]Vliet A J H V,Bron W A,Mulder S,et al.Observed climate-induced changes in plant phenology in the Netherlands[J].Regional Environmental Change,2014,14(3):997-1 008.
[9]张福春.气候变化对中国木本植物物候的可能影响[J].地理学报,1995,50(5):402-410.[Zhang Fuchun.Effects of global warming on plant phonological everts in China[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,1995,50(5):402-410.]
[10]Zhou L,Tucker C J,Kaufmann R K,et al.Variations in northern vegetation activity inferred from satellite data of vegetation index during 1981 to 1999[J].Journal of Geophysical Research:Atmospheres,2001,106:20 069-20 083.
[11]Menzel A,Fabian P.Growing season extended in Europe[J].Nature,1999,397(6 721):659.
[12]葛全胜,戴君虎,郑景云.物候学研究进展及中国现代物候学面临的挑战[J].中国科学院院刊,2010,25(3):310-316.[Ge Quansheng,Dai Junhu,Zheng Jingyun.The progress of phenology studies and challenges to modern phenology research in China[J].Bulletin of Chinese Academy of Sciences,2010,25(3):310-316.]
[13]张学霞,葛全胜,郑景云.近50年北京植被对全球变暖的响应及其时效[J].生态学杂志,2005,24(2):123-130.[Zhang Xuexia,Ge Quansheng,Zheng Jingyun.Impacts and lags of global warming on vegetation in Beijing for the last 50 years based on remotely sensed data and phonological information[J].Chinese Journal of Ecology,2005,24(2):123-130.]
[14]何月,樊高峰,张小伟,等.浙江省植被物候变化及其对气候变化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(2):220-233.[He Yue,Fan Gaofeng,Zhang Xiaowei,et al.Vegetation phenological variation and its response to climate changes in Zhejiang province[J].Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(2):220-233.]
[15]Li R Y,Sun D B,Jiang X D.Response of typical woody plants phenology to climate warming in Southwestern Shandong Province[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2014,35(2):135-140.
[16]杨丽萍,秦艳,张存厚,等.气候变化对大兴安岭兴安落叶松物候期的影响[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(3):577-583.[Yang Liping,Qin Yan,Zhang Cunhou,et al.Influence of climate change on the phenophase of Larix gmelinii in the Greater Khingan Mountains[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(3):577-583.]
[17]雷俊,姚玉璧,孙润,等.黄土高原半干旱区物候变化特征及其对气候变暖的响应[J].中国农业气象,2017,38(1):1-8.[Lei Jun,Yao Yubi,Sun Run,et al.Phenological variation and its response to climate warming in Semi-Arid Region of Loess Plateau[J].Chinese Journal of Agrometeorology,2017,38(1):1-8.]
[18]Deng C H,Bai H Y,Zhai D P,et al.Variation in plant phenology in the Qinling Mountains from 1964-2015 in the context of climate change[J].Acta Ecologica Sinica,2017,37(23):7 882-7 893.
[19]魏庆莒.胡杨[M].北京:中国林业出版社,1990:7-21.[Wei Qingju.Populus euphratica[M].Beijing:China Forestry Publishing House,1990:7-21.]
[20]王世绩,陈炳浩,李护群.胡杨林[M].北京:中国环境科学出版社,1995:16-18.[Wang Shiji,Chen Binghao,Li Huqun.Populus euphratica[M].Beijing:China Environmental Science Press,1995:16-18.]
[21]刘树宝,陈亚宁,陈亚鹏,等.黑河下游荒漠河岸林不同林龄胡杨对脉冲式降雨的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(1):172-178.[Liu Shubao,Chen Yaning,Chen Yapeng,et al.Response of Populus euphratica at different ages to rainfall pulses in the desert riparian forest of the lower reaches of the Heihe Riwer[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(1):172-178.]
[22]Zhang W X,Liu P X,Feng Q R,et al.The spatiotemporal responses of Populus euphratica to global warming in Chinese oases between 1960 and 2015[J].Journal of Geographical Sciences,2018,28(5):579-594.
[23]刘普幸,杨泉.敦煌绿洲1955年至2010年胡杨年生长季对气候变化的响应[J].资源科学,2012,34(3):566-571.[Liu Puxing,Yang Quan.Response of the annual growing season of Populus euphratica to climate change in Dunhuang Oasis from 1955 to2010[J].Resources Science,2012,34(3):566-571.]
[24]买尔燕古丽·阿不都热合曼,艾里西尔·库尔班,阿迪力·阿不来提,等.塔里木河下游胡杨物候特征观测[J].干旱区研究,2008,25(4):525-530.[Abdurahman M,Kurban A,Ablat A,et al.Study on phenological characters of Populus euphratica Oliv in the lower reaches of the Tarim River[J].Arid Zone Research,2008,25(4):525-530.]
[25]申元村,汪久文,伍光和,等.中国绿洲[M].开封:河南大学出版社,2001.[Shen Yuancun,Wang Jiuwen,Wu Guanghe,et al.Oasis of China[M].Kaifeng:Henan University Press,2001.]
[26]关学锋,孙卫国,李敏姣,等.1965-2012年新疆北部地区气候变化及其对北极涛动的响应[J].干旱区研究,2016,33(4):681-689.[Guan Xuefeng,Sun Weiguo,Li Minjiao,et al.Climate change in North Xinjiang and its response to Arctic Oscillation during the period of 1965-2012[J].Arid Zone Research,2016,33(4):681-689.]
[27]徐浩杰,杨太保.1981-2010年柴达木盆地气候要素变化特征及湖泊和植被响应[J].地理科学进展,2013,32(6):868-879.[Xu Haojie,Yang Taibao.Climate factors change and its impact on lake area and vegetation growth in the Qaidam Basin during1981-2010[J].Progress in Geography,2013,32(6):868-879.]
[28]李景林,张山清,普宗朝,等.近50 a新疆气温精细化时空变化分析[J].干旱区地理,2013,36(2):228-237.[Li Jinglin,Zhang Shanqing,Pu Zongchao,et al.Spatial-temporal variation of seasonal and annual air temperature in Xinjiang during 1961-2010[J].Arid Land Geography,2013,36(2):228-237.]