A METHOD OF RAPID CLASSIFICATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACKS OVER CHINA AND ITS APPLICATION
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摘要
Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in China between May and October each year during the1951-2015 period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type, and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding causes. The results show that the westward and northward types account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In addition, differences between the changes in formation locations of the westward and northward types may lead to significant difference in their landfall intensities.
Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in China between May and October each year during the1951-2015 period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type, and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding causes. The results show that the westward and northward types account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In addition, differences between the changes in formation locations of the westward and northward types may lead to significant difference in their landfall intensities.
Using data of tropical cyclones making landfall in China between May and October each year during the1951-2015 period from the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, China Meteorological Administration(CMA-STI) Tropical Cyclone(TC) Best Track Dataset, we developed a method of rapid classification of TC tracks based on their average movement velocities and noted three types of tracks: a westward type, a northwestward type, and a northward type. We compared the climate characteristics of the westward and northward types and discuss their corresponding causes. The results show that the westward and northward types account for more than 80% of all TCs making landfall in China.Their climate characteristics, such as the frequency, landfall intensity, duration over land, velocity over land, movement distance over land, and other changes, show both similarities and differences. Both TC types show significant increases in their over-land durations, indicating that the effects of these landfalling TCs are increasing. However, the causes of these two TC types are similar and different in certain respects. The changes in large-scale steering flows have significantly affected the frequencies and over-land velocities of the landfalling TCs of the westward and northward types. In addition, differences between the changes in formation locations of the westward and northward types may lead to significant difference in their landfall intensities.
引文
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[2]ZHAO Hai-kun,WU Li-guang.Review on climate change of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific[J].J Meteor Sci,2015,35(1):108-118(in Chinese).
[3]CHEN Hua,WANG Kai.The impacts of the interaction of typhoons with the midlatitude trough on its track after recurvature[J].J Trop Meteor,2015,31(2):145-152(in Chinese).
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[9]HUANG Yong,LI Chong-yin,WANG Ying.Further study of the characteristics of frequency variation of tropical cyclones activity over western North Pacific and the relationship with sea surface temperature[J].J Trop Meteor,2009,25(3):273-280(in Chinese).
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[14]CAMARGO S J,ROBERTSON A W,GAFFNEY S J,et al.Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks.Part I:General properties[J].J Climate,2007,20(3):3635-3653.
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[17]MA Chao,LIU Qing-qing,XU Hong-shi.Spatio-temporal characteristics analysis of landfall tropical cyclones over China based on tracks clustering analysis[J].Marine Forecasts,2016,33(3):65-70(in Chinese).
[18]ZHANG W,LEUNG Y,WANG Y.Cluster analysis of post-landfall tracks of landfalling tropical cyclones over China[J].Clim Dyn,2013,40(5-6):1237-1255.
[19]LI Xue,REN Fu-min,YANG Xiu-qun,et al.A study of the regional differences of the tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific[J].Clim Environ Res,2010,15(4):504-510(in Chinese).
[20]ZHAO H,WU L.Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,2014,125(1-2):89-101.
[21]WU L,ZHAO H.Dynamically derived tropical cyclone intensity changes over the western North Pacific[J].JClimate,2012,25(1):89-98.
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[23]YUE S,WANG C.The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series[J].Water Resour Manage,2004,18(3):201-218.
[24]CHEN X,WU L,ZHANG J.Increasing duration of tropical cyclones over China[J].Geophys Res Lett,2011,38(2):195-201(in Chinese).
[25]ADEM J,LEZAMA P.On the motion of a cyclone embedded in a uniform flow1[J].Tellus,1960,12(3):255-258.
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[27]CHAN J C L.An observational study of the physical processes responsible for tropical cyclone motion[J].JAtmos Sci,1984,41(6):1036-1048.
[28]DONG K,NEUMANN C J.The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows[J].Mon Wea Rev,1986,114(1):115-122.
[29]WANG Y.On the bogusing of tropical cyclones in numerical models:The influence of vertical structure[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,1998,65(3-4):153-170.
[30]ZHAO H,WU L,ZHOU W.Observational relationship of climatologic beta drift with large-scale environmental flows[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(18):120-131(in Chinese).
[31]HOLLAND G J.Tropical cyclone motion:Environmental interaction plus a beta effect[J].J Atmos Sci,1983,40(2):328-342.
[32]CARR III L E,ELSBERRY R L.Observational evidence for predictions of tropical cyclone propagation relative to environmental steering[J].J Atmos Sci,1990,47(4):542-546.
[33]WU L,WANG B.Effects of convective heating on movement and vertical coupling of tropical cyclones:Anumerical study[J].J Atmos Sci,2001,58(23):3639-3649.
[34]WU L G,WANG B.Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks[J].J Climate,2004,17(8):1686-1698.
[35]XIN Chen,WANG Yong-qing,ZHONG Wei.The effects of convective cells on hurricane’s intensity in highly sheared wind environments[J].J Trop Meteor,2015,31(2):202-212(in Chinese).
[36]YIN Hao,WANG Yong-qing,ZHONG Wei.Characteristics and influence factors of the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones with different tracks in the Northwest Pacific[J].J Meteor Sci,2016,36(2):194-202.
[37]LI Kan,XU Hai-ming.A comparative analysis of the intensifying and weakening landfall tropical cyclones during extratropical transition over China[J].J Trop Meteor,2013,29(3):411-420(in Chinese).
[38]GRAY W M.Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,1968,96(10):669-700.
[39]FRANK W M,RITCHIE E A.Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes[J].Mon Wea Rev,2001,129(9):2249-2269.
[40]CORBOSIERO K L,MOLINARI J.The effects of vertical wind shear on the distribution of convection in tropical cyclones[J].Mon Wea Rev,2002,130(8):2110-2123.
[41]VECCHI G A,SODEN B J.Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation[J].J Climate,2007,20(17):4316-4340.
[2]ZHAO Hai-kun,WU Li-guang.Review on climate change of tropical cyclones in the Northwest Pacific[J].J Meteor Sci,2015,35(1):108-118(in Chinese).
[3]CHEN Hua,WANG Kai.The impacts of the interaction of typhoons with the midlatitude trough on its track after recurvature[J].J Trop Meteor,2015,31(2):145-152(in Chinese).
[4]EMANUEL K.Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years[J].Nature,2005,436(7051):686-688.
[5]WEBSTER P J,HOLLAND G J,CURRY J A,et al.Changes in tropical cyclone number,duration,and intensity in a warming environment[J].Science,2005,309(5742):1844-1846.
[6]WU L G,WANG B,GENG S Q.Growing typhoon influence on east Asia[J].Geophys Res Lett,2005,32(4),L18703,doi:10.1029/2005GL022937.
[7]ZHAO H,JIANG X,WU L.Modulation of northwest Pacific tropical cyclone genesis by the intraseasonal variability[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,2015,93,1,doi:10.2151/jmsj.2015-006.
[8]ZHAO H,WU L,ZHOU W.Assessing the influence of the ENSO on tropical cyclone prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2010,27(6):1361-1371.
[9]HUANG Yong,LI Chong-yin,WANG Ying.Further study of the characteristics of frequency variation of tropical cyclones activity over western North Pacific and the relationship with sea surface temperature[J].J Trop Meteor,2009,25(3):273-280(in Chinese).
[10]LIANG Bi-qi.Tropical Meteorology[M].Guangzhou:Sun Yat-sen University Press,1990:190-191(in Chinese).
[11]CHEN Rui-shan.Typhoon[M].Fujian:Fujian Science and Technology Press,2002:92-94(in Chinese).
[12]MENG Ying,LU Juan,LIAO Qi-long.Analysis of the characteristics of the West-Pacific Typhoon affecting the sea area around the Island of Taiwan[J].J Trop Meteor,2005,21(3):315-322(in Chinese).
[13]ELSNER J B.Tracking hurricanes[J].Bull Amer Meteor Soc,2003,84(2):353-356.
[14]CAMARGO S J,ROBERTSON A W,GAFFNEY S J,et al.Cluster analysis of typhoon tracks.Part I:General properties[J].J Climate,2007,20(3):3635-3653.
[15]NAKAMURA J,LALL U,KUSHNIR Y,et al.Classifying North Atlantic tropical cyclone tracks by mass moments[J].J Climate,2009,22(4):5481-5494.
[16]ZHENG Ying-qing,YU Jin-hua,WU Qi-shu,et al.K-means clustering for classification of the northwestern Pacific Tropical Cyclone tracks[J].J Trop Meteor,2013,29(4):607-615(in Chinese).
[17]MA Chao,LIU Qing-qing,XU Hong-shi.Spatio-temporal characteristics analysis of landfall tropical cyclones over China based on tracks clustering analysis[J].Marine Forecasts,2016,33(3):65-70(in Chinese).
[18]ZHANG W,LEUNG Y,WANG Y.Cluster analysis of post-landfall tracks of landfalling tropical cyclones over China[J].Clim Dyn,2013,40(5-6):1237-1255.
[19]LI Xue,REN Fu-min,YANG Xiu-qun,et al.A study of the regional differences of the tropical cyclone activities over the South China Sea and the Western North Pacific[J].Clim Environ Res,2010,15(4):504-510(in Chinese).
[20]ZHAO H,WU L.Inter-decadal shift of the prevailing tropical cyclone tracks over the western North Pacific and its mechanism study[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,2014,125(1-2):89-101.
[21]WU L,ZHAO H.Dynamically derived tropical cyclone intensity changes over the western North Pacific[J].JClimate,2012,25(1):89-98.
[22]KUNDZEWICZ Z W,ROBSONA(Eds.).Detecting trend and other changes in hydrological data[M].World Meteor Org,Geneva,Switzerland,Rep.WCDMP-45,2000,Rep.WMO-TD 1013,157 pp.
[23]YUE S,WANG C.The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series[J].Water Resour Manage,2004,18(3):201-218.
[24]CHEN X,WU L,ZHANG J.Increasing duration of tropical cyclones over China[J].Geophys Res Lett,2011,38(2):195-201(in Chinese).
[25]ADEM J,LEZAMA P.On the motion of a cyclone embedded in a uniform flow1[J].Tellus,1960,12(3):255-258.
[26]FRANKLIN J L,FEUER S E,KAPLAN J,et al.Tropical cyclone motion and surrounding flow relationships:searching for beta gyres in Omega dropwindsonde datasets[J].Mon Wea Rev,1996,124(1):64-84.
[27]CHAN J C L.An observational study of the physical processes responsible for tropical cyclone motion[J].JAtmos Sci,1984,41(6):1036-1048.
[28]DONG K,NEUMANN C J.The relationship between tropical cyclone motion and environmental geostrophic flows[J].Mon Wea Rev,1986,114(1):115-122.
[29]WANG Y.On the bogusing of tropical cyclones in numerical models:The influence of vertical structure[J].Meteor Atmos Phys,1998,65(3-4):153-170.
[30]ZHAO H,WU L,ZHOU W.Observational relationship of climatologic beta drift with large-scale environmental flows[J].Geophys Res Lett,2009,36(18):120-131(in Chinese).
[31]HOLLAND G J.Tropical cyclone motion:Environmental interaction plus a beta effect[J].J Atmos Sci,1983,40(2):328-342.
[32]CARR III L E,ELSBERRY R L.Observational evidence for predictions of tropical cyclone propagation relative to environmental steering[J].J Atmos Sci,1990,47(4):542-546.
[33]WU L,WANG B.Effects of convective heating on movement and vertical coupling of tropical cyclones:Anumerical study[J].J Atmos Sci,2001,58(23):3639-3649.
[34]WU L G,WANG B.Assessing impacts of global warming on tropical cyclone tracks[J].J Climate,2004,17(8):1686-1698.
[35]XIN Chen,WANG Yong-qing,ZHONG Wei.The effects of convective cells on hurricane’s intensity in highly sheared wind environments[J].J Trop Meteor,2015,31(2):202-212(in Chinese).
[36]YIN Hao,WANG Yong-qing,ZHONG Wei.Characteristics and influence factors of the rapid intensification of tropical cyclones with different tracks in the Northwest Pacific[J].J Meteor Sci,2016,36(2):194-202.
[37]LI Kan,XU Hai-ming.A comparative analysis of the intensifying and weakening landfall tropical cyclones during extratropical transition over China[J].J Trop Meteor,2013,29(3):411-420(in Chinese).
[38]GRAY W M.Global view of the origin of tropical disturbances and storms[J].Mon Wea Rev,1968,96(10):669-700.
[39]FRANK W M,RITCHIE E A.Effects of vertical wind shear on the intensity and structure of numerically simulated hurricanes[J].Mon Wea Rev,2001,129(9):2249-2269.
[40]CORBOSIERO K L,MOLINARI J.The effects of vertical wind shear on the distribution of convection in tropical cyclones[J].Mon Wea Rev,2002,130(8):2110-2123.
[41]VECCHI G A,SODEN B J.Global warming and the weakening of the tropical circulation[J].J Climate,2007,20(17):4316-4340.