秋汛期影响汉江流域降水的水汽通道特征研究
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摘要
为给汉江流域秋汛预报提供一定参考,基于1961～2016年NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料(2. 5°×2. 5°)分析东亚季风区9～10月水汽输送通量分布情况,并结合对水汽通量散度的分析,得出了秋汛期(9～10月)影响汉江流域主要有3条水汽通道,分别为:①来自西太平洋偏东方向的水汽输送通道;②来自孟加拉湾经中南半岛的西南方向的水汽输送通道;③来自副热带地区经青藏高原西北方向的水汽输送通道,第③条水汽通道强度明显强于其余2个水汽通道。通过分析3条水汽通道强度与汉江流域降水的相关关系发现:秋汛期(9～10月),②③两条水汽通道对汉江流域降雨均有较大影响,而第①条水汽通道对汉江流域降雨的影响较小。利用国家气候中心提供的1961～2016年6～10月逐月环流指数资料,初步探讨6～8月及9～10月副热带高压的各项指数及印缅槽强度指数与3条水汽通道的关联,得出:6～8月、9～10月,副热带高压的强度及面积仅与第①条水汽通道呈现明显负相关,而印缅槽强度与3条水汽通道均呈现明显的负相关,当6～8月、9～10月印缅槽强度偏弱时,均有利于9～10月3条水汽通道强度偏强,因此有利于9～10月汉江流域降雨偏多。
In order to provide a certain reference for the autumn flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River basin,we analyze the distribution of water vapor transport flux in the East Asian Monsoon Region from September to October based on 1961-2016 NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data (2. 5 ° x 2. 5 °),and draw the following conclusions by combining with the analysis of water vapor flux divergence. In autumn flood season (September to October),there are three main channels of water vapor reaching the Hanjiang River basin,respectively,a slightly east water vapor transport channel in west Pacific; a southwest water vapor transport channel from the Bengal bay through the Indochina Peninsula; a northwest water vapor transport channel starting subtropical region and passing through the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The third water vapor channel is obviously stronger than that of the other two channels. By analyzing the correlations between the intensity of three water vapor channels and rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin,it is found that in autumn flood season (September to October),the second and third water vapor transport channels have significant influence on the rainfall of the Hanjiang River basin,and the first water vapor transport channel has less effect on the rainfall of the Hanjiang River basin. We discuss the correlations between the indexes of subtropical high pressure belt and the strength of India-Burma trough with the three water vapor channels from June to August and September to October using monthly circulation index data from June to October in 1961-2016 provided by the national climate center. The results show that from June to August and September to October,the intensity and area of subtropical high pressure belt are negatively correlated with the first water vapor transport channel only,but the intensity of India-Burma trough is negatively correlated with the three water vapor channels. When the India-Burma trough is weak,it is in favor to the strengthening of the three water vapor channels from September to October,and further it is in favor to rainfall in the Hanjiang River basin.
In order to provide a certain reference for the autumn flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River basin,we analyze the distribution of water vapor transport flux in the East Asian Monsoon Region from September to October based on 1961-2016 NCEP/NCAR monthly reanalysis data (2. 5 ° x 2. 5 °),and draw the following conclusions by combining with the analysis of water vapor flux divergence. In autumn flood season (September to October),there are three main channels of water vapor reaching the Hanjiang River basin,respectively,a slightly east water vapor transport channel in west Pacific; a southwest water vapor transport channel from the Bengal bay through the Indochina Peninsula; a northwest water vapor transport channel starting subtropical region and passing through the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. The third water vapor channel is obviously stronger than that of the other two channels. By analyzing the correlations between the intensity of three water vapor channels and rainfall in the Hanjiang River Basin,it is found that in autumn flood season (September to October),the second and third water vapor transport channels have significant influence on the rainfall of the Hanjiang River basin,and the first water vapor transport channel has less effect on the rainfall of the Hanjiang River basin. We discuss the correlations between the indexes of subtropical high pressure belt and the strength of India-Burma trough with the three water vapor channels from June to August and September to October using monthly circulation index data from June to October in 1961-2016 provided by the national climate center. The results show that from June to August and September to October,the intensity and area of subtropical high pressure belt are negatively correlated with the first water vapor transport channel only,but the intensity of India-Burma trough is negatively correlated with the three water vapor channels. When the India-Burma trough is weak,it is in favor to the strengthening of the three water vapor channels from September to October,and further it is in favor to rainfall in the Hanjiang River basin.
引文
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[14]田红,郭品文,陆维松.夏季水汽输送特征及其与中国降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4):496-502
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[16]田红,郭品文,陆维松.中国夏季降水的水汽通道特征及其影响因子分析[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(4):401-408.
[17]刘芸芸,丁一汇.西北太平洋夏季风对中国长江流域夏季降水的影响[J].大气科学,2009,33(6):1225-1237.
[18]宗海锋,张庆云,陈烈庭.梅雨期中国东部降水的时空变化及其与大气环流、海温的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1189-1197.
[19]申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,等.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J].气象学报,2010,68(6):918-931.
[20]谢义,炳戴,武杰.中国东部地区夏季水汽输送个例计算[J].气象学报,1956,30(2):174-185.
[2]崔讲学,徐双柱,王仁乔,等.2005年汉江秋汛气象水文特征分析[J].暴雨灾害,2007,26(4):289-294
[3]肖莺,杜良敏,任永建.汉江流域秋汛期典型旱涝年与前期海温的关系研究[J].暴雨灾害,2013,32(2):182-187.
[4]田红瑛,田文寿,雒佳丽,等.青藏高原地区上对流层-下平流层区域水汽分布和变化特征[J].高原气象,2014,33(1):1-13.
[5]李永华,徐海明,高阳华,等.西南地区东部夏季旱涝的水汽输送特征[J].气象学报,2010,68(6):932-943.
[6]李江林,李照荣,杨建才,等.近10年夏季西北地区水汽空间分布和时间变化分析[J].高原气象,2012,31(6):1574-1581.
[7]周玉淑,高守亭,邓国.江淮流域2003年强梅雨期的水汽输送特征分析[J].大气科学,2005,29(2):195-204.
[8]陶诗言,陈联寿,徐祥德,等.第二次青藏高原大气科学实验理论研究进展[C]∥北京:气象出版社,1999:204-214.
[9]Yatagai A,Yasunari T.Variation of sunmmer water vapor transport related to precipitation over and around the arid region in the interior of the Eurasian Continent[J].J Meteor Soc Japan,1998,76(5):799-815.
[10]周长艳,李跃清.长江上游地区水汽输送的气候特征[J].长江科学院院报,2005,22(5):18-22.
[11]谢安,毛江玉,宋焱云,等.长江中下游地区水汽输送的气候特征[J].应用气象学报,2002,13(1):67-77.
[12]Zhang R H.Relations of water vapor transport from Indian minsoon with that over east Asia and the summer rainfall in China[J].Adv Atmos Sci,2001,18(5):1005-1017.
[13]徐祥德,陶诗言,王继志,等.青藏高原-季风水汽输送“大三角扇型”影响特征与中国区域旱涝异常的关系[J].气象学报,2002,60(3):258-264.
[14]田红,郭品文,陆维松.夏季水汽输送特征及其与中国降水异常的关系[J].南京气象学院学报,2002,25(4):496-502
[15]Zhou T J,Yu R C.Atmospheric water vapor transport associated with typical anomalous sunmmer rainfall patterns in China[J].J Geophys Res,2005,110(D8):D08104.
[16]田红,郭品文,陆维松.中国夏季降水的水汽通道特征及其影响因子分析[J].热带气象学报,2004,20(4):401-408.
[17]刘芸芸,丁一汇.西北太平洋夏季风对中国长江流域夏季降水的影响[J].大气科学,2009,33(6):1225-1237.
[18]宗海锋,张庆云,陈烈庭.梅雨期中国东部降水的时空变化及其与大气环流、海温的关系[J].大气科学,2006,30(6):1189-1197.
[19]申乐琳,何金海,周秀骥,等.近50年来中国夏季降水及水汽输送特征研究[J].气象学报,2010,68(6):918-931.
[20]谢义,炳戴,武杰.中国东部地区夏季水汽输送个例计算[J].气象学报,1956,30(2):174-185.