黑龙江省水稻生育阶段极端降水事件时空特征
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摘要
利用百分位相对指数法,基于1971-2016年历史长序列的日降水资料,分析研究黑龙江省水稻生长季极端降水事件的阈值、频数和强度的时空特征。结果表明:黑龙江省极端降水事件阈值的高值区主要位于松嫩平原中南大部;极端降水事件主要集中于水稻生长季的5-9月,尤其是在水稻生殖生长的关键阶段,发生了大部分的极端降水事件;46年中,水稻种植区极端降水事件频数在18～72 d,极端降水事件频数总体呈经向分布特征,自东向西逐渐减少。7月下旬为中西部地区极端降水事件发生的高频时段,东部地区极端降水事件发生的高频时间段为5和9月,6月为极端降水事件发生的低频时段。近6年为极端降水事件频数最高、强度最大的一段时期,20世纪70年代则反之;极端降水事件频数和强度存在高度的相关性;在有雨量观测的小区域内,洪涝灾害事件基本可以被极端降水事件捕捉到,同时极端降水事件对洪涝灾害的指示性也较高。
The extreme precipitation event(EPE) is defined by relative index method of percent. This paper analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics by the indicators of threshold, frequency and intensity based on the daily rainfall data during growing season of rice in Heilongjiang from 1971 to 2016. The results show that high value of EPE threshold appears mainly in Central South Songnen Plain. The EPE happens mainly from May to September during growing season of rice, especially in the key reproductive growth stage of rice. During the 46 years, frequency of the EPE ranges from 18 to 72 days, showing the characteristics of meridional distribution and decreasing gradually from the east to the west. Usually, frequency of the EPE is the highest in late July over central and western regions, and that is the highest in May and September for the eastern regions. The lowest frequency of EPE is in June, so June is a safe period for rice production. As for the interdecadal difference from 1971 to 2016, the frequency is the most in recent 6 years, and the intensity is the largest for EPE, but in 1970 s the situation is opposite. Thus,there is a high correlation between frequency and intensity of EPE. For small regions with rainfall observation, flood disaster can mostly be designated with EPE, and emergence of EPE possibly indicate flood disaster.
The extreme precipitation event(EPE) is defined by relative index method of percent. This paper analyzes spatio-temporal characteristics by the indicators of threshold, frequency and intensity based on the daily rainfall data during growing season of rice in Heilongjiang from 1971 to 2016. The results show that high value of EPE threshold appears mainly in Central South Songnen Plain. The EPE happens mainly from May to September during growing season of rice, especially in the key reproductive growth stage of rice. During the 46 years, frequency of the EPE ranges from 18 to 72 days, showing the characteristics of meridional distribution and decreasing gradually from the east to the west. Usually, frequency of the EPE is the highest in late July over central and western regions, and that is the highest in May and September for the eastern regions. The lowest frequency of EPE is in June, so June is a safe period for rice production. As for the interdecadal difference from 1971 to 2016, the frequency is the most in recent 6 years, and the intensity is the largest for EPE, but in 1970 s the situation is opposite. Thus,there is a high correlation between frequency and intensity of EPE. For small regions with rainfall observation, flood disaster can mostly be designated with EPE, and emergence of EPE possibly indicate flood disaster.
引文
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黄大鹏,郑伟,张人禾,等,2011.安徽淮河流域洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力评估[J].地理研究,30(3):523-530. Huang D P,Zheng W,Zhang R H,et al,2011. Assessment of capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province[J]. Geogr Res,30(3):523-530(in Chinese).
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姜丽霞,陈可心,刘丹,等,2015. 2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常特征及其对作物产量影响的分析[J].气象,41(1):105-112. Jiang L X,Chen K X,Liu D,et al,2015. Analyses of abnormal rainfall and its influence on crop production during main flood season of Heilongjiang Province in 2013[J]. Meteor Mon, 41(1):105-112(in Chinese).
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李军玲,刘忠阳,邹春辉,2010.基于GIS的河南省洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究[J].气象,36(2):87-92. Li J L,Liu Z Y,Zou C H, 2010. Assessment and zonation of flood disaster risk in Henan Province based on GIS[J]. Meteor Mon,36(2):87-92(in Chinese).
李兰,周月华,叶丽梅,等,2013.基于GIS淹没模型的流域暴雨洪涝风险区划方法[J].气象,39(1):112-117. Li L,Zhou Y H,Ye L M,et al,2013. Basin rainstorm flood risk regionalization method based on GIS rainstorm flood inundation model[J]. Meteor Mon,39(1):112-117(in Chinese).
李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等,2015.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象,41(3):261-271. Li W J,Zuo J Q,Song Y L,et al 2015. Changes in spatio-temporal distribution of drought/flood disaster in southern China under global climate warming[J]. Meteor Mon,41(3):261-271(in Chinese).
刘会玉,林振山,张明阳,2005.建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J].地理科学,25(1):43-48.Liu H Y,Lin Z S,Zhang M Y,2005. Wavelet analysis of area affected by flood disaster in China after 1949[J]. Sci Geogr Sin, 25(1):43-48(in Chinese).
邱海军,曹明明,胡胜,等,2014.近60 a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究[J].地球与环境,42(1):17-24. Qiu H J,Cao M M, Hu S,et al,2014. Susceptibility and periodicity of flood disasters since the 1950 s in China[J]. Earth Environ,42(1):17-24(in Chinese).
魏风英,2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术:第2版[M].北京:气象出版社:38, 58-60. Wei F Y,2007. Statistical Diagnosis of Modern Climate and Predicting Techniques[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:38,58-60(in Chinese).
谢五三,吴蓉,田红,等,2017.东津河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].气象,43(3):341-347. Xie W S,Wu R,Tian H,et al,2017.Rainstorm flood risk regionalization of the Dongjin River Basin[J]. Meteor Mon,43(3):341-347(in Chinese).
徐宗学,程磊,2010.分布式水文模型研究与应用进展[J].水利学报,41(9):1009-1017. Xu Z X, Cheng L, 2010. Progress on studies and applications of the Distributed Hydrological Models[J]. J Hydraulic Eng,41(9):1009-1017(in Chinese).
杨若子,周广胜,2015.东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估[J].气象学报,73(6):114-1153. Yang R Z,Zhou G S,2015. A comprehensive risk assessment of the main maize agrometeorological disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,73(6):1141-1153(in Chinese).
杨志刚,建军,洪建昌,2014. 1961-2010年西藏极端降水事件时空分布特征[J].高原气象,33(1):37-42. Yang Z G,Jian J,Hong J C,2014. Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events in Tibet during 1961—2010[J]. Plateau Meteor,33(1):37-42(in Chinese).
俞布,缪启龙,潘文卓,等,2011.杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划与评价[J].气象,37(11):1415-1422. Yu B,Miao Q L,Pan W Z,et al,2011. Risk division and assessment of typhoon rainstorm flooding disasters in Hangzhou City[J]. Meteor Mon,37(11):1415-1422(in Chinese).
袁美英.李泽椿,张小玲,2010.东北地区一次短时大暴雨β中尺度对流系统分析[J].气象学报,68(1):125-136. Yuan M Y,Li Z C,Zhang X L,2010. Analysis of a meso-βscale convective system during a brief torrential rain event in Northeast Chin[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,68(1):125-136(in Chinese).
张英红,2000.我国洪涝灾害初步研究[J].高等函授学报(自然科学版),13(3):44-46. Zhang Y H,2000. Preliminary studies on flood disaster of China[J]. J Higher Correspondence Edu(Natural Sci), 13(3):44-46(in Chinese).
张宇彤,矫梅燕,陈静,等.2016.基于贝叶斯方法的极端降水概率预报试验[J].气象,42(7):799-808. Zhang Y T,Jiao M Y,Chen J.et al,2016. Probabilistic forecasting of extreme precipitation experiment based on Bayesian Theory[J]. Meteor Mon,42(7):799-808(in Chinese).
周悦,周月华,叶丽梅,等,2016.湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究[J].气象,42(2):221-229.Zhou Y,Zhou Y H,Ye L M,et al,2016. Preliminary study on disastrous law of drought and flood in Hubei Province[J]. Meteor Mon, 42(2):221-229(in Chinese).
Brody S,Blessing R,Sebastian A,et al,2014. Examining the impact of land use/land cover haracteristics on flood losses[J]. J Environ Plann Manage,57(8):1252-1265.
Easterling D R, Meehl G A, Parmesan C, et al, 2000. Climate extremes:observations, modeling, and impacts[J]. Science,289(5487):2068-2074.
Felipe-Omar T-S,Slibylle I,Saskia F,et al,2011. Estimation of flood losses to agricultural crops using remote sensing[J]. Phys Chem Earth,36(7/8):253-265.
Ishikawa H,Oku Y,Kim S,et al. 2013. Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River Basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone[J]. Hydrol Process,27(23):3292-3300.
Mustafi B A A, Azad M A S,2003. The 1998 flood:losses and damages of agricultural production in Bangladesh[J]. J Biol Sci, 3(2):147-156.
房一禾,龚志强,陈海山,2016.东北冷涡降水集中期的客观识别研究[J].气象,42(1):80-88. Fang Y H,Gong Z Q,Chen H S,2016.Objective identification research on China northeast cold vortex precipitation period[J]. Meteor Mon,42(1):80-88(in Chinese).
黄大鹏,郑伟,张人禾,等,2011.安徽淮河流域洪涝灾害防灾减灾能力评估[J].地理研究,30(3):523-530. Huang D P,Zheng W,Zhang R H,et al,2011. Assessment of capacity of flood disaster prevention and reduction of Huaihe River Basin in Anhui Province[J]. Geogr Res,30(3):523-530(in Chinese).
霍治国,范雨娴,杨建莹,等,2017.中国农业洪涝灾害研究进展[J].应用气象学报,28(6):641-653. Huo Z G,Fan Y X,Yang J Y,et al,2017. Review on agricultural flood disaster in China[J].Quar J Appl Meteor,28(6):641-653(in Chinese).
姜丽霞,陈可心,刘丹,等,2015. 2013年黑龙江省主汛期降水异常特征及其对作物产量影响的分析[J].气象,41(1):105-112. Jiang L X,Chen K X,Liu D,et al,2015. Analyses of abnormal rainfall and its influence on crop production during main flood season of Heilongjiang Province in 2013[J]. Meteor Mon, 41(1):105-112(in Chinese).
李加林,曹罗丹,浦瑞良,2014.洪涝灾害遥感监测评估研究综述[J].水利学报,45(3):253-260. Li J L,Cao L D,Pu R L,2014. Progresses on monitoring and assessment of flood disaster in remote sensing[J]. J Hydraulic Engineering, 45(3):253-260(in Chinese).
李军玲,刘忠阳,邹春辉,2010.基于GIS的河南省洪涝灾害风险评估与区划研究[J].气象,36(2):87-92. Li J L,Liu Z Y,Zou C H, 2010. Assessment and zonation of flood disaster risk in Henan Province based on GIS[J]. Meteor Mon,36(2):87-92(in Chinese).
李兰,周月华,叶丽梅,等,2013.基于GIS淹没模型的流域暴雨洪涝风险区划方法[J].气象,39(1):112-117. Li L,Zhou Y H,Ye L M,et al,2013. Basin rainstorm flood risk regionalization method based on GIS rainstorm flood inundation model[J]. Meteor Mon,39(1):112-117(in Chinese).
李维京,左金清,宋艳玲,等,2015.气候变暖背景下我国南方旱涝灾害时空格局变化[J].气象,41(3):261-271. Li W J,Zuo J Q,Song Y L,et al 2015. Changes in spatio-temporal distribution of drought/flood disaster in southern China under global climate warming[J]. Meteor Mon,41(3):261-271(in Chinese).
刘会玉,林振山,张明阳,2005.建国以来中国洪涝灾害成灾面积变化的小波分析[J].地理科学,25(1):43-48.Liu H Y,Lin Z S,Zhang M Y,2005. Wavelet analysis of area affected by flood disaster in China after 1949[J]. Sci Geogr Sin, 25(1):43-48(in Chinese).
邱海军,曹明明,胡胜,等,2014.近60 a来中国洪涝灾情变化趋势持续性和周期性研究[J].地球与环境,42(1):17-24. Qiu H J,Cao M M, Hu S,et al,2014. Susceptibility and periodicity of flood disasters since the 1950 s in China[J]. Earth Environ,42(1):17-24(in Chinese).
魏风英,2007.现代气候统计诊断与预测技术:第2版[M].北京:气象出版社:38, 58-60. Wei F Y,2007. Statistical Diagnosis of Modern Climate and Predicting Techniques[M]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press:38,58-60(in Chinese).
谢五三,吴蓉,田红,等,2017.东津河流域暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划[J].气象,43(3):341-347. Xie W S,Wu R,Tian H,et al,2017.Rainstorm flood risk regionalization of the Dongjin River Basin[J]. Meteor Mon,43(3):341-347(in Chinese).
徐宗学,程磊,2010.分布式水文模型研究与应用进展[J].水利学报,41(9):1009-1017. Xu Z X, Cheng L, 2010. Progress on studies and applications of the Distributed Hydrological Models[J]. J Hydraulic Eng,41(9):1009-1017(in Chinese).
杨若子,周广胜,2015.东北三省玉米主要农业气象灾害综合危险性评估[J].气象学报,73(6):114-1153. Yang R Z,Zhou G S,2015. A comprehensive risk assessment of the main maize agrometeorological disasters in the three provinces of Northeast China[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,73(6):1141-1153(in Chinese).
杨志刚,建军,洪建昌,2014. 1961-2010年西藏极端降水事件时空分布特征[J].高原气象,33(1):37-42. Yang Z G,Jian J,Hong J C,2014. Temporal and spatial distribution of extreme precipitation events in Tibet during 1961—2010[J]. Plateau Meteor,33(1):37-42(in Chinese).
俞布,缪启龙,潘文卓,等,2011.杭州市台风暴雨洪涝灾害风险区划与评价[J].气象,37(11):1415-1422. Yu B,Miao Q L,Pan W Z,et al,2011. Risk division and assessment of typhoon rainstorm flooding disasters in Hangzhou City[J]. Meteor Mon,37(11):1415-1422(in Chinese).
袁美英.李泽椿,张小玲,2010.东北地区一次短时大暴雨β中尺度对流系统分析[J].气象学报,68(1):125-136. Yuan M Y,Li Z C,Zhang X L,2010. Analysis of a meso-βscale convective system during a brief torrential rain event in Northeast Chin[J]. Acta Meteor Sin,68(1):125-136(in Chinese).
张英红,2000.我国洪涝灾害初步研究[J].高等函授学报(自然科学版),13(3):44-46. Zhang Y H,2000. Preliminary studies on flood disaster of China[J]. J Higher Correspondence Edu(Natural Sci), 13(3):44-46(in Chinese).
张宇彤,矫梅燕,陈静,等.2016.基于贝叶斯方法的极端降水概率预报试验[J].气象,42(7):799-808. Zhang Y T,Jiao M Y,Chen J.et al,2016. Probabilistic forecasting of extreme precipitation experiment based on Bayesian Theory[J]. Meteor Mon,42(7):799-808(in Chinese).
周悦,周月华,叶丽梅,等,2016.湖北省旱涝灾害致灾规律的初步研究[J].气象,42(2):221-229.Zhou Y,Zhou Y H,Ye L M,et al,2016. Preliminary study on disastrous law of drought and flood in Hubei Province[J]. Meteor Mon, 42(2):221-229(in Chinese).
Brody S,Blessing R,Sebastian A,et al,2014. Examining the impact of land use/land cover haracteristics on flood losses[J]. J Environ Plann Manage,57(8):1252-1265.
Easterling D R, Meehl G A, Parmesan C, et al, 2000. Climate extremes:observations, modeling, and impacts[J]. Science,289(5487):2068-2074.
Felipe-Omar T-S,Slibylle I,Saskia F,et al,2011. Estimation of flood losses to agricultural crops using remote sensing[J]. Phys Chem Earth,36(7/8):253-265.
Ishikawa H,Oku Y,Kim S,et al. 2013. Estimation of a possible maximum flood event in the Tone River Basin, Japan caused by a tropical cyclone[J]. Hydrol Process,27(23):3292-3300.
Mustafi B A A, Azad M A S,2003. The 1998 flood:losses and damages of agricultural production in Bangladesh[J]. J Biol Sci, 3(2):147-156.