高质量发展背景下我国财富指数的测度与分析
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摘要
随着我国经济从高速增长阶段转入高质量发展阶段,如何衡量经济的高质量发展水平,特别是高质量的财富水平,成为急需解决的重大理论和实践问题。本文在国家财富内涵研究基础上,以Dasgupta提出的包容性财富指数为总体框架,从人力财富、物质财富和自然财富等三大维度构建了高质量发展背景下的财富指数。并分别利用J-F终身收入法、永续盘存法和资源预期收益折现法对我国省际层面的人力资本财富、物质资本财富和自然资本财富进行测度和分析。研究发现,1997—2017年我国总财富从171. 67万亿元增长至412. 02万亿元,20年来的财富主要依靠物质资本财富和人力资本财富驱动,其中物质资本财富驱动作用更加明显。从各省(区、市)情况看,财富增长最快的地区均以人力资本财富为主导,而财富增长最慢的地区均以自然资本财富为主导。未来经济发展中应统筹解决好经济运行中的结构性问题和周期性问题,打好物质资本财富积累基础;以"调整存量、做优增量、提质增效"为核心目标,提升自然资源的使用效率;加大人力资本投入,全面推进创新人才培养;适时推动生育政策调整,为人力资本财富的增长提供条件;依据各区域财富结构的具体特征,统筹发达地区和欠发达地区经济发展,推动财富结构的持续优化,为实现经济高质量发展提供基础和保障。
China's economy has entered the stage of high-quality development from the stage of high-speed growth,it has become an important theoretical and practical issue to measure the high-quality development level of the economy,especially the high-quality wealth level. This paper studies the connotation of national wealth. Based on the inclusive wealth index proposed by Dasgupta,it constructs a wealth index under the background of high-quality development from three dimensions: human wealth,material wealth and natural wealth. The J-F lifetime income method,the perpetual inventory method and the resource expected income discount method are used to measure and analyze the human capital wealth,material capital wealth and natural capital wealth in China's provincial level. The study found that from 1997 to 2017,China's total wealth increased from 171 trillion yuan to 412 trillion yuan. The wealth in the past 20 years was mainly driven by material capital wealth and human capital wealth,and the role of material capital wealth was more obvious. From the perspective of provinces,the regions with the fastest growth in wealth are dominated by human capital wealth,while the regions with the slowest growth in wealth are dominated by natural capital wealth. In the future economic development,we should solve the structural problems and cyclical problems in the economic operation by overall planning,and lay a solid foundation for the accumulation of material capital wealth; with the core goal of"adjusting stocks,making excellent increments,improving quality and efficiency",and improving the efficiency of natural resources use. At the same time,it is necessary to increase investment in human capital,comprehensively promote the cultivation of innovative talents; promote the adjustment of birth policies in a timely manner,and provide conditions for the growth of human capital wealth. Moreover,according to the specific characteristics of the wealth structure of each region,we should coordinate the economic development of developed regions and underdeveloped regions,promote the continuous optimization of wealth structure,and provide the basis and guarantee for the realization of high-quality economic development.
China's economy has entered the stage of high-quality development from the stage of high-speed growth,it has become an important theoretical and practical issue to measure the high-quality development level of the economy,especially the high-quality wealth level. This paper studies the connotation of national wealth. Based on the inclusive wealth index proposed by Dasgupta,it constructs a wealth index under the background of high-quality development from three dimensions: human wealth,material wealth and natural wealth. The J-F lifetime income method,the perpetual inventory method and the resource expected income discount method are used to measure and analyze the human capital wealth,material capital wealth and natural capital wealth in China's provincial level. The study found that from 1997 to 2017,China's total wealth increased from 171 trillion yuan to 412 trillion yuan. The wealth in the past 20 years was mainly driven by material capital wealth and human capital wealth,and the role of material capital wealth was more obvious. From the perspective of provinces,the regions with the fastest growth in wealth are dominated by human capital wealth,while the regions with the slowest growth in wealth are dominated by natural capital wealth. In the future economic development,we should solve the structural problems and cyclical problems in the economic operation by overall planning,and lay a solid foundation for the accumulation of material capital wealth; with the core goal of"adjusting stocks,making excellent increments,improving quality and efficiency",and improving the efficiency of natural resources use. At the same time,it is necessary to increase investment in human capital,comprehensively promote the cultivation of innovative talents; promote the adjustment of birth policies in a timely manner,and provide conditions for the growth of human capital wealth. Moreover,according to the specific characteristics of the wealth structure of each region,we should coordinate the economic development of developed regions and underdeveloped regions,promote the continuous optimization of wealth structure,and provide the basis and guarantee for the realization of high-quality economic development.
引文
[1]William Nordhaus,James Tobin. Is Growth Obsolete?[M].NBER,Columbia University Press,1972.
[2]Daly H E,Cobb J B. ISEW. The'Debunking'Interpretation and the Person-in-Community Paradox:Comment on Rafael Ziegler[J]. Environmental Values,2007(3):287-288.
[3]任保平,钞小静,魏婕.中国经济增长质量报告:中国经济增长质量指数及省区排名(2012)[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2012.
[4]Dasgupta P. The Idea of Sustainable Development[J]. Sustainability Science,2007(1):5-11.
[5]UNEP. Inclusive Wealth Report 2012[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[6]庄佳强.省际可持续发展:基于包容性财富的测量和比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(9):90-99.
[7]李钢,刘吉超.中国省际包容性财富指数的估算:1990—2010[J].中国工业经济,2014(1):5-17.
[8]任保平.西方经济学财富观的历史演变:一个文献述评[J].经济学家,2010(1):12-19.
[9]Jorgenson,Dale W,Fraumeni,Barbara M. Investment in Education and U.S.Economic Growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1992(5):51-70.
[10]Mincer J. Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages[J].Nber Working Papers,1974(4):87-104.
[11]李海峥,梁赟玲,Barbara Fraumeni,等.中国人力资本测度与指数构建[J].经济研究,2010(8):42-54.
[12]李海峥,贾娜,张晓蓓,等.中国人力资本的区域分布及发展动态[J].经济研究,2013(7):49-62.
[13]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[14]国家发展与改革委员会,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第三版)[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006.
(1)省级宏观经济变量包括各省的人均GDP、城镇平均职工工资、农村人均纯收入、一产就业比重等。
[2]Daly H E,Cobb J B. ISEW. The'Debunking'Interpretation and the Person-in-Community Paradox:Comment on Rafael Ziegler[J]. Environmental Values,2007(3):287-288.
[3]任保平,钞小静,魏婕.中国经济增长质量报告:中国经济增长质量指数及省区排名(2012)[M].北京:中国经济出版社,2012.
[4]Dasgupta P. The Idea of Sustainable Development[J]. Sustainability Science,2007(1):5-11.
[5]UNEP. Inclusive Wealth Report 2012[M]. New York:Cambridge University Press,2012.
[6]庄佳强.省际可持续发展:基于包容性财富的测量和比较[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2013(9):90-99.
[7]李钢,刘吉超.中国省际包容性财富指数的估算:1990—2010[J].中国工业经济,2014(1):5-17.
[8]任保平.西方经济学财富观的历史演变:一个文献述评[J].经济学家,2010(1):12-19.
[9]Jorgenson,Dale W,Fraumeni,Barbara M. Investment in Education and U.S.Economic Growth[J].Scandinavian Journal of Economics,1992(5):51-70.
[10]Mincer J. Unemployment Effects of Minimum Wages[J].Nber Working Papers,1974(4):87-104.
[11]李海峥,梁赟玲,Barbara Fraumeni,等.中国人力资本测度与指数构建[J].经济研究,2010(8):42-54.
[12]李海峥,贾娜,张晓蓓,等.中国人力资本的区域分布及发展动态[J].经济研究,2013(7):49-62.
[13]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004(10):35-44.
[14]国家发展与改革委员会,建设部.建设项目经济评价方法与参数(第三版)[M].北京:中国计划出版社,2006.
(1)省级宏观经济变量包括各省的人均GDP、城镇平均职工工资、农村人均纯收入、一产就业比重等。