影响一般气象站蒸发量的主要气象因子分析
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摘要
对影响锡林郭勒盟6个一般气象站20 cm直径小型蒸发皿蒸发量相关气象因子进行分析。选取锡林郭勒盟6个一般气象站30年(1981—2010年)日平均气温、日平均风速、日照时数、日平均相对湿度,运用相关分析、逐步回归等数理统计方法,建立一般气象站蒸发量计算的多元线性回归模型方程。结果表明,日蒸发量与日均气温、日均风速和日照时数呈显著正相关,与日均相对湿度呈负相关。采用6个一般气象站2011—2012年逐日观测数据回代蒸发经验公式,得出日平均蒸发估算值是实际蒸发量的0.9倍,说明此经验公式配上适当的修正系数,适用于锡林郭勒盟一般气象站停止小型蒸发观测后蒸发量的理论估算值计算,为地方气象服务提供了依据。
The meteorological factors affecting the evaporation of small evaporating dishes with a diameter of 20 cm at six general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League were analyzed. The daily average temperature, daily average wind speed, sunshine hours and daily average relative humidity of six general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League during the past 30 years(1981-2010) were selected to establish the multivariate linear regression model equation for calculating evaporation at general meteorological stations by using mathematical statistics methods such as correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that daily evaporation was positively correlated with daily average temperature, daily average wind speed and sunshine hours, and negatively correlated with daily average relative humidity. The empirical formula of evaporation was replaced by the daily observation data of six general meteorological stations from 2011 to 2012, it was concluded that the estimated value of daily average evaporation was 0.9 times that of actual evaporation. It showed that the empirical formula with appropriate correction coefficient was suitable for the theoretical calculation of evaporation after stopping small-scale evaporation observation at general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League,which provided a basis for local meteorological services.
The meteorological factors affecting the evaporation of small evaporating dishes with a diameter of 20 cm at six general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League were analyzed. The daily average temperature, daily average wind speed, sunshine hours and daily average relative humidity of six general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League during the past 30 years(1981-2010) were selected to establish the multivariate linear regression model equation for calculating evaporation at general meteorological stations by using mathematical statistics methods such as correlation analysis and stepwise regression. The results showed that daily evaporation was positively correlated with daily average temperature, daily average wind speed and sunshine hours, and negatively correlated with daily average relative humidity. The empirical formula of evaporation was replaced by the daily observation data of six general meteorological stations from 2011 to 2012, it was concluded that the estimated value of daily average evaporation was 0.9 times that of actual evaporation. It showed that the empirical formula with appropriate correction coefficient was suitable for the theoretical calculation of evaporation after stopping small-scale evaporation observation at general meteorological stations in Xilinguole League,which provided a basis for local meteorological services.
引文
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[4]段旭.预报因子选取及方程建立人机交互平台[J].气象,2010,36(11):120-125.