中国三次产业资源错配及其对生产率的影响研究
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摘要
构建包含资源错配和效率损失的多部门增长核算模型和产出变动分解模型,并利用模型测算了1987—2015年的中国三次产业资源错配程度以及纠正三次产业资源错配对整体经济产出和TFP变动的影响。研究发现,对于资本和劳动要素,中国三次产业间存在严重的资源错配,资源错配程度有逐渐加深的趋势;当前,对于第一产业和第三产业来说,资本和劳动要素过度配置;而对于第二产业来说,资本和劳动要素配置不足。中国经济增长主要依靠生产要素投入,TFP对经济增长的贡献偏小,平均仅贡献11%。多年以来,中国经济三次产业间的资源错配现象并没有得到有效的纠正。资源错配现状及其未纠正效应对总产出和TFP造成损失,其中第二产业资本要素错配对总TFP和总产出的负面影响高达1.27%。最后,对我国长期以来超前发展服务业的产业政策进行了重新审视,提出了产业政策应该引导资源向高效率产业配置、要特别注意防范和化解经济中的重大风险事件等相关建议。
This paper attempts to construct a multi-sectoral growth accounting model and a decomposition model of output change containing resource misallocation and efficiency loss. It estimates the degree of resource misallocation of three industries in China from 1987 to 2015 and measures the impact on overall economic output and TFP changes if resource misallocation of the three industrial sectors are rectified. Research indicates that a serious misallocation of capital and laborexists in China's three industries, which has an aggravating tendency. At present, for the primary and tertiary industries, both capital and labor are over-allocated. However, for the secondary industry, both capital and labor are under-allocated. China's economic growth depends mainly on the input of factors of production, while TFP contributes to only 11% of economic growth. For China's economy, the resources misallocation among the three industries has not been effectively addressed for many years.The current situation of resource misallocation and its impact causes losses to the total output and TFP, among which the negative impact of capital misallocation of the total TFP and total output is as high as 1.27% in the secondary industry. In the end, the paper reviews China's long-standing industrial policy of advancing the development of tertiary industries, points out that industrial policy should guide resources allocation to high-efficiency industries, especially pays attention to the prevention and resolution of significant economic risk event and other relevant recommendations.
This paper attempts to construct a multi-sectoral growth accounting model and a decomposition model of output change containing resource misallocation and efficiency loss. It estimates the degree of resource misallocation of three industries in China from 1987 to 2015 and measures the impact on overall economic output and TFP changes if resource misallocation of the three industrial sectors are rectified. Research indicates that a serious misallocation of capital and laborexists in China's three industries, which has an aggravating tendency. At present, for the primary and tertiary industries, both capital and labor are over-allocated. However, for the secondary industry, both capital and labor are under-allocated. China's economic growth depends mainly on the input of factors of production, while TFP contributes to only 11% of economic growth. For China's economy, the resources misallocation among the three industries has not been effectively addressed for many years.The current situation of resource misallocation and its impact causes losses to the total output and TFP, among which the negative impact of capital misallocation of the total TFP and total output is as high as 1.27% in the secondary industry. In the end, the paper reviews China's long-standing industrial policy of advancing the development of tertiary industries, points out that industrial policy should guide resources allocation to high-efficiency industries, especially pays attention to the prevention and resolution of significant economic risk event and other relevant recommendations.
引文
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[17]姚战琪.生产率增长与要素再配置效应:中国的经验研究[J].经济研究,2009(11):130-143.
[18]张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003(7):35-43+90.
[19]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007(5):6-13.
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[23]蔡昉.中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战[J].中国社会科学,2007(3):4-12+203.
[24]袁富华.结构变迁过程的资源错配:发展中国家的增长迷途[EB].中国经济学学术资源网(CESG).http://www.erj.cn/cn,2012.
[25]蔡昉.中国经济改革效应分析-劳动力重新配置的视角[J].经济研究,2017(7):4-17.
[2]RESTUCCIA D,ROGERSON R.Misallocation and productivity[J].Review of economic dynamics,2013,16(1):1-10.
[3]袁志刚,解栋栋.中国劳动力错配对TFP的影响分析[J].经济研究,2011(7):4-17.
[4]曹玉书,楼东玮.资源错配、结构变迁与中国经济转型[J].中国工业经济,2012(10):5-18.
[5]郑振雄,刘艳彬.要素价格扭曲下的产业结构演进研究[J].中国经济问题,2013(3):68-78.
[6]HSIEH C,KLENOW P.Misallocation and manufacturing TFP in China and India[J].Quarterly journal of economics,2009,124 (4):1403-1448.
[7]朱喜,史清华,盖庆恩.要素配置扭曲与农业全要素生产率[J].经济研究,2011(5):86-98.
[8]陈永伟,胡伟民.价格扭曲,要素错配和效率损失:理论和应用[J].经济学(季刊),2011(4):1401-1422.
[9]陶小马,邢建武,黄鑫,周雯.中国工业部门的能源价格扭曲与要素替代研究[J].数量经济技术经济研究,2009,(11):3-16.
[10]袁鹏,杨洋.要素市场扭曲与中国经济效率[J].经济评论,2014(2):28-40+51.
[11]郝枫,赵慧卿.中国市场价格扭曲测度:1952—2005[J].统计研究,2010(6):33-39.
[12]DOLLAR D,WEI S J,Das (Wasted) kapital:firm ownership and investment efficiency in China[R].IMF Working Paper,2007.
[13]RESTUCCIA D,ROGERSON R.Policy distortions and aggregate productivity with heterogeneous establishments[J].Review of economic dynamics,2008,11(4):707-720.
[14]SYRQUIN M.Productivity growth and factor reallocation[M].Oxford University Press,1986.
[15]AOKI S.A simple accounting framework for the effect of resource misallocation on aggregate productivity[J].Journal of the Japanese & international economics,2012,26(4):473-494.
[16]陈斌开,金箫,欧阳涤非.住房价格,资源错配与中国工业企业生产率[J].世界经济,2015(4):77-98.
[17]姚战琪.生产率增长与要素再配置效应:中国的经验研究[J].经济研究,2009(11):130-143.
[18]张军,章元.对中国资本存量K的再估计[J].经济研究,2003(7):35-43+90.
[19]徐现祥,周吉梅,舒元.中国省区三次产业资本存量估计[J].统计研究,2007(5):6-13.
[20]陈诗一.中国工业分行业统计数据估算:1980—2008[J].经济学(季刊),2011(3):735-776.
[21]GOLDSMITH R.W.A perpetual inventory of national wealth[J].NBER studies in income and wealth,1951,14:5-73.
[22]蔡昉.理解中国经济发展的过去、现在和将来——基于一个贯通的增长理论框架[J].经济研究,2013(11):4-16+55.
[23]蔡昉.中国经济面临的转折及其对发展和改革的挑战[J].中国社会科学,2007(3):4-12+203.
[24]袁富华.结构变迁过程的资源错配:发展中国家的增长迷途[EB].中国经济学学术资源网(CESG).http://www.erj.cn/cn,2012.
[25]蔡昉.中国经济改革效应分析-劳动力重新配置的视角[J].经济研究,2017(7):4-17.