人民币汇率失调与进出口贸易的双向影响效应研究
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摘要
选取2005年第三季度至2018年第三季度相关经济数据,运用BEER模型测算其间人民币实际有效汇率失调程度,并通过建立VAR模型对人民币实际有效汇率失调与我国进出口贸易双向影响效应进行实证分析。研究发现:汇率改革至今,人民币实际有效汇率失调程度都在10%以下,总体上不存在严重的汇率失调;进出口贸易对人民币实际有效汇率失调有双向作用,表明了我国经济的韧性较强。应采取调整国际贸易收支结构、完善政府国内财政公共支出结构等举措来调节汇率失调程度,降低国与国之间贸易摩擦带来的负面影响。
Based on relevant economic data from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of2018, the BEER model was used to calculate the misalignment degree of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB during the period, and the VAR model was established to conduct an empirical analysis on the misalignment of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the two-way influence effect of China's import and export trade. The study found that since the exchange rate reform, the real effective exchange rate misalignment of RMB has been less than 10%, and there is no serious misalignment of exchange rate in general. Imports and exports have a two-way effect on the misalignment of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB, indicating the strong resilience of the Chinese economy. Measures should be taken to adjust the structure of international trade balance and improve the structure of domestic fiscal public expenditure to adjust the degree of exchange rate misalignment and reduce the negative impact of trade frictions between countries.
Based on relevant economic data from the third quarter of 2005 to the third quarter of2018, the BEER model was used to calculate the misalignment degree of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB during the period, and the VAR model was established to conduct an empirical analysis on the misalignment of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB and the two-way influence effect of China's import and export trade. The study found that since the exchange rate reform, the real effective exchange rate misalignment of RMB has been less than 10%, and there is no serious misalignment of exchange rate in general. Imports and exports have a two-way effect on the misalignment of the real effective exchange rate of the RMB, indicating the strong resilience of the Chinese economy. Measures should be taken to adjust the structure of international trade balance and improve the structure of domestic fiscal public expenditure to adjust the degree of exchange rate misalignment and reduce the negative impact of trade frictions between countries.
引文
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[3]Nicita A.Exchange rates,international trade and trade policies[J].International Economics,2013,13(5):47-61.
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[6]丁正良,纪成君.基于VAR模型的中国进口、出口、实际汇率与经济增长的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2014(12):91-101.
[7]付波航.人民币均衡实际汇率及汇率失调的开放宏观经济效应[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2014:128-134.
[8]Balassa B.The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal[J].Journal of Political E-conomy,1964,72(6):584-596.
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[11]Cenedese G,Stolper T.Currency mair value models[M]//Handbook of Exchange Rates.John Wiley&Sons,Inc.2012:313-342.
[12]肖立晟,郭步超.中国金融实际有效汇率的测算与影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014(2):95-115.
[13]卜国军.人民币国际化进程中汇率的决定和管理研究[D].中央财经大学,2015:103-105.
(1)在选择变量时,还考虑了劳动生产率、货币供给变化、央行干预指数等指标,但由于没有通过计量检验而剔除。
(1)为避免周期因素的影响,本文运用HP滤波方法提取变量LGE、LTOT、LOPEN、LNFA、IRS、LRMB的长期趋势。
[2]Throstensen V,Marcal E F,Ferraz L.Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy:impacts on tariffs[J].Social Science Electronic Publishing,2012,46(3):597-634.
[3]Nicita A.Exchange rates,international trade and trade policies[J].International Economics,2013,13(5):47-61.
[4]吴丽华,王锋.人民币实际汇率错位的经济效应实证研究[J].经济研究,2006(7):15-28.
[5]吕剑.二元经济结构、实际汇率错位及其对进出口贸易影响的实证分析[J].金融研究,2007(9):90-101.
[6]丁正良,纪成君.基于VAR模型的中国进口、出口、实际汇率与经济增长的实证研究[J].国际贸易问题,2014(12):91-101.
[7]付波航.人民币均衡实际汇率及汇率失调的开放宏观经济效应[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2014:128-134.
[8]Balassa B.The purchasing-power parity doctrine:a reappraisal[J].Journal of Political E-conomy,1964,72(6):584-596.
[9]Williamson J.Estimating equilibrium exchange rate[J].John Williamson,1994,69(3):580-597.
[10]Clark P B,Macdonald R.Exchange rates and economic fundamentals:a methodological comparison of beers and feers[M]//Equilibrium Exchange Rates.Springer Netherlands,1999:285-322.
[11]Cenedese G,Stolper T.Currency mair value models[M]//Handbook of Exchange Rates.John Wiley&Sons,Inc.2012:313-342.
[12]肖立晟,郭步超.中国金融实际有效汇率的测算与影响因素分析[J].世界经济,2014(2):95-115.
[13]卜国军.人民币国际化进程中汇率的决定和管理研究[D].中央财经大学,2015:103-105.
(1)在选择变量时,还考虑了劳动生产率、货币供给变化、央行干预指数等指标,但由于没有通过计量检验而剔除。
(1)为避免周期因素的影响,本文运用HP滤波方法提取变量LGE、LTOT、LOPEN、LNFA、IRS、LRMB的长期趋势。