基于SICGE模型的中国碳市场与电力市场协调发展研究
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摘要
2017年底,全国碳排放权交易市场正式启动,初期的碳市场只纳入电力行业,而当前电价仍处于管制状态,这无疑会影响碳市场运行中碳成本的传递过程。基于此,本文利用国家信息中心开发的中国经济—能源—环境动态可计算一般均衡模型(SICGE),评估了不同电价管制情景下中国碳市场的经济影响和减排效果。研究表明:(1)相对于行政命令手段,碳市场的减排成本降低50%左右;(2)电价管制会导致碳市场运行效率下降30%左右;(3)逐步放开电价管制能有效提升碳市场的减排效果。在此基础上,我们提出了以下应对措施和建议:(1)着力提升碳交易市场与电力市场改革等政策间的协同效果;(2)在电价没有放开的情况下,建议给予发电企业一定的免费配额,以降低其减排成本;(3)探索和建立电价与碳价的联动机制;(4)建立和完善从发放免费配额到取消免费配额的平滑过渡机制。
At the end of 2017,the national carbon emission trading market was officially launched.The initial carbon market was only included in the power industry and the current electricity price is still in a state of regulation,which will undoubtedly affect the carbon cost transfer process in the carbon market operation.Based on this,this paper uses the China Economic-Energy-Environment Dynamics Computable General Equilibrium Model(SICGE) developed by the National Information Center to assess the economic impact and emission reduction effects of China's carbon market under different electricity price control scenarios.The research shows that:(1) Compared with the administrative order means,the carbon market abatement cost is reduced by about 50%;(2) The electricity price control will cause the carbon market operation efficiency to drop by about 30%;(3) Gradually liberalizing the electricity price control can effectively improve the emission reduction effect of the carbon market.On this basis,we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:(1) Focus on improving the synergy between the carbon trading market and the electricity market reform;(2) In the case that the electricity price is not liberalized,it is recommended to give power generation enterprises a certain free quotas to reduce their abatement costs;(3) Explore and establish a linkage mechanism between electricity prices and carbon prices;(4) Establish and improve a smooth transition mechanism from the issuance of free quotas to the elimination of free quotas.
At the end of 2017,the national carbon emission trading market was officially launched.The initial carbon market was only included in the power industry and the current electricity price is still in a state of regulation,which will undoubtedly affect the carbon cost transfer process in the carbon market operation.Based on this,this paper uses the China Economic-Energy-Environment Dynamics Computable General Equilibrium Model(SICGE) developed by the National Information Center to assess the economic impact and emission reduction effects of China's carbon market under different electricity price control scenarios.The research shows that:(1) Compared with the administrative order means,the carbon market abatement cost is reduced by about 50%;(2) The electricity price control will cause the carbon market operation efficiency to drop by about 30%;(3) Gradually liberalizing the electricity price control can effectively improve the emission reduction effect of the carbon market.On this basis,we put forward the following countermeasures and suggestions:(1) Focus on improving the synergy between the carbon trading market and the electricity market reform;(2) In the case that the electricity price is not liberalized,it is recommended to give power generation enterprises a certain free quotas to reduce their abatement costs;(3) Explore and establish a linkage mechanism between electricity prices and carbon prices;(4) Establish and improve a smooth transition mechanism from the issuance of free quotas to the elimination of free quotas.
引文
①蒋晶晶、叶斌、计军平、马晓明:《中国碳强度下降和碳排放增长的行业贡献分解研究》,《环境科学》2014年第11期。
②李继峰、张亚雄:《我国“十二五”时期建立碳交易市场的政策思考》,《气候变化研究进展》2012年第2期。
③李栩然、蒋慧、黄杰:《新一轮电力体制改革环境下的全国统一碳市场》,载苏树辉、袁国林:《温室气体减排与碳市场发展报告(2016)》,世界知识出版社2016年版。
④刘宇、温丹辉、王毅、孙振清:《天津碳交易试点的经济环境影响评估研究——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO2》,《气候变化研究进展》2016年第6期。
⑤陆敏、赵湘莲、李岩岩:《基于系统聚类的中国碳交易市场初步研究》,《软科学》2013年第3期。
⑥骆瑞玲、范体军、李淑霞、李小鹏:《我国石化行业碳排放权分配研究》,《中国软科学》2014年第2期。
⑦石敏俊、袁永娜、周晟吕、李娜:《碳减排政策:碳税、碳交易还是两者兼之?》,《管理科学学报》2013年第9期。
⑧孙睿、况丹、常冬勤:《碳交易的“能源—经济—环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第7期。
⑨孙亚男:《碳交易市场中的碳税策略研究》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第3期。
⑩杨映红、吴小翔、惠善康:《我国建筑领域碳交易体系实施的能力建设研究》,《生态经济》2014年第2期。
(11)袁永娜、石敏俊、李娜、周晟吕:《碳排放许可的强度分配标准与中国区域经济协调发展——基于30省区CGE模型的分析》,《气候变化研究进展》2012年第1期。
(12)周晟吕:《基于CGE模型的上海市碳排放交易的环境经济影响分析》,《气候变化研究进展》2015年第2期。
(13)Cai,Y.,Dudek,D.,Ma,X.M.,Zhang,J.Y.,Margolis,J.,Liu,B.and Ji,J.P.,Research and practice on incorporating mobile sources into Shenzhen carbon emissions trading system.Journal Of Renewable And Sustainable Energy,Vol.7,No.4,2015.
(14)Chang,Y.C.and Wang,N.N.,Environmental regulations and emissions trading in China.Energy Policy,Vol.38,No.7,2010.
(15)Cheng,B.B.,Dai,H.C.,Wang,P.,Zhao,D.Q.and Masui,T.,Impacts of carbon trading scheme on air pollutant emissions in Guangdong province of China.Energy For Sustainable Development,Vol.27,2015.
(16)Coase,R.H.,The problem of social cost.Journal Of Law And Economics,Vol.3,1960.
(17)Cong,R.G.and Wei,Y.M.,Potential impact of carbon emission trading (CET) on China’s power sector:A perspective from different allowance allocation options.Energy,Vol.9,No.35,2010.
(18)Dai,H.C.,Xie,Y.,Liu,J.Y.and Masui,T.,Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China’s INDCs:A general equilibrium assessment.Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.82,2018.
(19)Dixon,P.B.,Parmenter,B.R.,Sutton,J.and Vincent,D.P.,ORANI:A Multi-sectoral Model Of The Australian Economy.Amsterdam:North-Holland,1982.
(20)Dixon,P.B.and Rimmer,M.T.,Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling For Forecasting And Policy:A Practical Guide And Documentation Of Monash.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2002.
(21)Kuika,O.and Mulder,M.,Emissions trading and competitiveness:Pros and cons of relative and absolute schemes.Energy Policy,Vol.32,No.6,2004.
(22)Li,W.and Jia,Z.J.,The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota:A dynamic recursive CGE model in China.Applied Energy,Vol.174,No.C,2016.
(23)Li,W.,Lu,C.,Ding,Y.and Zhang,Y.W.,The impacts of policy mix for resolving overcapacity in heavy chemical industry and operating national carbon emission trading market in China.Applied Energy,Vol.204,No.C,2017.
(24)Li,J.F.,Wang,X.,Zhang,Y.Z.and Kou,Q.,The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China:An application of a computable general equilibrium approach.Energy Policy,Vol.75,No.C,2014.
(25)Lin,W.B.,Gu,A.,Wang,X.and Liu,B.,Aligning emissions trading and feed-in tariffs in China.Climate Policy,Vol.16,No.4,2015.
(26)Teng,F.,Wang,X.and Lv,Z.Q.,Introducing the emissions trading system to China’s electricity sector:Challenges and opportunities.Energy Policy,Vol.75,No.C,2014.
(27)Tietenberg,T.H.,Emissions Trading:An Exercise In Reforming Pollution Policy.Washington:Resources For The Future,Inc.,1985.
(28)Xu,J.P.,Yang,X.and Tao,Z.M.,A tripartite equilibrium for carbon emission allowance allocation in the power-supply industry.Energy Policy,Vol.82,No.C,2015.
(29)Yu,S.W.,Wei,Y.M.and Wang,K.,Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China:An approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition.Energy Policy,Vol.66,No.C,2014.
(30)Zhu,Y.,Li,Y.P.,Huang,G.H.,Fan,Y.R.and Nie,S.,A dynamic model to optimize municipal electric power systems by considering carbon emission trading under uncertainty.Energy,Vol.88,No.C,2015.
②李继峰、张亚雄:《我国“十二五”时期建立碳交易市场的政策思考》,《气候变化研究进展》2012年第2期。
③李栩然、蒋慧、黄杰:《新一轮电力体制改革环境下的全国统一碳市场》,载苏树辉、袁国林:《温室气体减排与碳市场发展报告(2016)》,世界知识出版社2016年版。
④刘宇、温丹辉、王毅、孙振清:《天津碳交易试点的经济环境影响评估研究——基于中国多区域一般均衡模型TermCO2》,《气候变化研究进展》2016年第6期。
⑤陆敏、赵湘莲、李岩岩:《基于系统聚类的中国碳交易市场初步研究》,《软科学》2013年第3期。
⑥骆瑞玲、范体军、李淑霞、李小鹏:《我国石化行业碳排放权分配研究》,《中国软科学》2014年第2期。
⑦石敏俊、袁永娜、周晟吕、李娜:《碳减排政策:碳税、碳交易还是两者兼之?》,《管理科学学报》2013年第9期。
⑧孙睿、况丹、常冬勤:《碳交易的“能源—经济—环境”影响及碳价合理区间测算》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第7期。
⑨孙亚男:《碳交易市场中的碳税策略研究》,《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第3期。
⑩杨映红、吴小翔、惠善康:《我国建筑领域碳交易体系实施的能力建设研究》,《生态经济》2014年第2期。
(11)袁永娜、石敏俊、李娜、周晟吕:《碳排放许可的强度分配标准与中国区域经济协调发展——基于30省区CGE模型的分析》,《气候变化研究进展》2012年第1期。
(12)周晟吕:《基于CGE模型的上海市碳排放交易的环境经济影响分析》,《气候变化研究进展》2015年第2期。
(13)Cai,Y.,Dudek,D.,Ma,X.M.,Zhang,J.Y.,Margolis,J.,Liu,B.and Ji,J.P.,Research and practice on incorporating mobile sources into Shenzhen carbon emissions trading system.Journal Of Renewable And Sustainable Energy,Vol.7,No.4,2015.
(14)Chang,Y.C.and Wang,N.N.,Environmental regulations and emissions trading in China.Energy Policy,Vol.38,No.7,2010.
(15)Cheng,B.B.,Dai,H.C.,Wang,P.,Zhao,D.Q.and Masui,T.,Impacts of carbon trading scheme on air pollutant emissions in Guangdong province of China.Energy For Sustainable Development,Vol.27,2015.
(16)Coase,R.H.,The problem of social cost.Journal Of Law And Economics,Vol.3,1960.
(17)Cong,R.G.and Wei,Y.M.,Potential impact of carbon emission trading (CET) on China’s power sector:A perspective from different allowance allocation options.Energy,Vol.9,No.35,2010.
(18)Dai,H.C.,Xie,Y.,Liu,J.Y.and Masui,T.,Aligning renewable energy targets with carbon emissions trading to achieve China’s INDCs:A general equilibrium assessment.Renewable And Sustainable Energy Reviews,Vol.82,2018.
(19)Dixon,P.B.,Parmenter,B.R.,Sutton,J.and Vincent,D.P.,ORANI:A Multi-sectoral Model Of The Australian Economy.Amsterdam:North-Holland,1982.
(20)Dixon,P.B.and Rimmer,M.T.,Dynamic General Equilibrium Modelling For Forecasting And Policy:A Practical Guide And Documentation Of Monash.Amsterdam:Elsevier,2002.
(21)Kuika,O.and Mulder,M.,Emissions trading and competitiveness:Pros and cons of relative and absolute schemes.Energy Policy,Vol.32,No.6,2004.
(22)Li,W.and Jia,Z.J.,The impact of emission trading scheme and the ratio of free quota:A dynamic recursive CGE model in China.Applied Energy,Vol.174,No.C,2016.
(23)Li,W.,Lu,C.,Ding,Y.and Zhang,Y.W.,The impacts of policy mix for resolving overcapacity in heavy chemical industry and operating national carbon emission trading market in China.Applied Energy,Vol.204,No.C,2017.
(24)Li,J.F.,Wang,X.,Zhang,Y.Z.and Kou,Q.,The economic impact of carbon pricing with regulated electricity prices in China:An application of a computable general equilibrium approach.Energy Policy,Vol.75,No.C,2014.
(25)Lin,W.B.,Gu,A.,Wang,X.and Liu,B.,Aligning emissions trading and feed-in tariffs in China.Climate Policy,Vol.16,No.4,2015.
(26)Teng,F.,Wang,X.and Lv,Z.Q.,Introducing the emissions trading system to China’s electricity sector:Challenges and opportunities.Energy Policy,Vol.75,No.C,2014.
(27)Tietenberg,T.H.,Emissions Trading:An Exercise In Reforming Pollution Policy.Washington:Resources For The Future,Inc.,1985.
(28)Xu,J.P.,Yang,X.and Tao,Z.M.,A tripartite equilibrium for carbon emission allowance allocation in the power-supply industry.Energy Policy,Vol.82,No.C,2015.
(29)Yu,S.W.,Wei,Y.M.and Wang,K.,Provincial allocation of carbon emission reduction targets in China:An approach based on improved fuzzy cluster and Shapley value decomposition.Energy Policy,Vol.66,No.C,2014.
(30)Zhu,Y.,Li,Y.P.,Huang,G.H.,Fan,Y.R.and Nie,S.,A dynamic model to optimize municipal electric power systems by considering carbon emission trading under uncertainty.Energy,Vol.88,No.C,2015.