公共服务满意度如何影响生育意愿和二胎意愿——基于CGSS数据的实证研究
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摘要
利用中国综合社会调查2013年和2015年的数据,考察了公共服务满意度对居民生育意愿和二胎意愿的影响。结果发现:不论是不同种类的公共服务满意度还是公共服务满意度因子,以及总体公共服务满意度,均对居民生育意愿和二胎意愿有促进作用;公共服务满意度通过影响居民幸福感进而作用于二胎意愿;公共服务满意度对生育意愿的影响存在年龄差异和城乡差异。
Using the data from Chinese General Social Surveys in 2013 and 2015, this paper examined the impact of public service satisfaction on residents' fertility willingness and second-child willingness. It is found that, different types of public service satisfaction, the factors of public service satisfaction and overall public service satisfaction have promoted the amount of first births and the willingness of second births. Public service satisfaction directly affects the happiness of residents, which leads to the change of second-child willingness. There exits age differences and urban-rural differences in public service satisfaction affecting fertility willingness. The study provides empirical evidence to help promoting residents' second-child willingness by perfecting public service.
Using the data from Chinese General Social Surveys in 2013 and 2015, this paper examined the impact of public service satisfaction on residents' fertility willingness and second-child willingness. It is found that, different types of public service satisfaction, the factors of public service satisfaction and overall public service satisfaction have promoted the amount of first births and the willingness of second births. Public service satisfaction directly affects the happiness of residents, which leads to the change of second-child willingness. There exits age differences and urban-rural differences in public service satisfaction affecting fertility willingness. The study provides empirical evidence to help promoting residents' second-child willingness by perfecting public service.
引文
[1]王会宗,张凤兵.“全面放开二胎”政策可行性的实证分析——基于经济稳定增长视角的中国人口最优出生率研究[J].经济问题,2016(3):30-35.
[2]郭晗,任保平.人口红利变化与中国经济发展方式转变[J].当代财经,2014(3):5-13.
[3]张亮.城市居民的二胎生育意愿及影响因素[J].湖南师范大学社会科学学报,2011,40(5):92-96.
[4]杨菊华.单独二孩政策下流动人口的生育意愿试析[J].中国人口科学,2015(1):89-96,128.
[5]乔晓春.从“单独二孩”政策执行效果看未来生育政策的选择[J].中国人口科学,2015(2):26-33,126.
[6]刘鸿雁,黄匡时.全国“单独两孩”政策实施效果研究——基于单独夫妇及其子女信息核查数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2015(4):23-31,126.
[7]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何[J].人民论坛,2018(14):46-47.
[8]茅倬彦,罗昊.符合二胎政策妇女的生育意愿和生育行为差异——基于计划行为理论的实证研究[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):84-93.
[9]王军,王广州.中国育龄人群的生育意愿及其影响估计[J].中国人口科学,2013(4):26-35,126.
[10]姚从容,吴帆,李建民.我国城乡居民生育意愿调查研究综述:2000—2008[J].人口学刊,2010(2):17-22.
[11]罗维,柏松杉,刘欣,何静.社会公众二孩生育影响因素研究综述:2003—2015[J].学理论,2017(2):103-105.
[12]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果和前景[J].中国经济报告,2017(1):24-26.
[13]Billari F C,Philipov D,Testa M R.Attitudes,Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control:Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria[J].European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie,2009,25(4):439.
[14]康传坤,孙根紧.基本养老保险制度对生育意愿的影响[J].财经科学,2018(3):67-79.
[15]王天宇,彭晓博.社会保障对生育意愿的影响:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,2015,50(2):103-117.
[16]刘一伟.社会养老保险、养老期望与生育意愿[J].人口与发展,2017,23(4):30-40.
[17]朱明宝,杨云彦.农村家庭养老模式变迁与低生育水平强化——来自湖北省宜昌市的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2016(3):93-103,128.
[18]张兴月,张冲.农村居民生育意愿及其影响因素——基于社会保障的视角[J].农村经济,2015(11):59-64.
[19]Rosenzweig M R,Schultz T P.Child Mortality and Fertility in Colombia:Individual and Community Effects[J]. Health Policy and Education,1982,2(3-4):305-348.
[20]洪秀敏,朱文婷.二孩时代生还是不生?——独生父母家庭二孩生育意愿及影响因素探析[J].北京社会科学,2017(5):69-78.
[21]刘章生,刘桂海,周建丰,范丽琴.教育如何影响中国人的“二孩”意愿?——来自CGSS(2013)的证据[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(2):104-119,158.
[22]马良,方行明,雷震,蔡晓陈.独生子女性别会影响父母的二胎生育意愿吗?——基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据的研究[J].人口学刊,2016,38(6):17-26.
[23]石贝贝,唐代盛,候蔺.中国人口生育意愿与男孩偏好研究[J].人口学刊,2017,39(2):28-36.
[24]卢海阳,邱航帆,郑逸芳.女性二胎生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于就业性质和养老观念的视角[J].南方人口,2017,32(3):55-68.
[25]谭雪萍.成本-效用视角下的单独二胎生育意愿影响因素研究——基于徐州市单独家庭的调查[J].南方人口,2015,30(2):1-12,22.
[26]谢俊贵,刘付杰晴.影响全面二孩政策推行的公共服务因素探析[J].岭南学刊,2017(2):63-68.
[27]江砥,董静,詹汉荣.生育新政之后民众二孩生育意愿影响因素探析——以湖北黄冈市区市民生育意愿随机问卷调查为例[J].人口与发展,2018,24(3):117-128.
[28]付文.全面放开二胎政策遇冷的影响因素分析[J].经济论坛,2018(1):128-131.
[29]刘厚莲.配偶随迁降低了流动人口生育意愿吗?[J].人口学刊,2017,39(4):40-49.
[30]杨菊华.流动人口二孩生育意愿研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(1):72-82,127-128.
[31]邓金虎,原新.流动妇女生育量及其影响因素研究——基于天津市流动人口监测数据[J].人口与发展,2017,23(5):49-55.
[32]陈煜婷.城镇就业人群生育意愿及其影响因素的性别差异研究——职业结构、时间分配和性别观念的效应[J].南方人口,2017,32(1):68-80.
[33]Xing Li,M.W.Luke Chan, Byron G. Spencer, Wei Yang. Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection?Evidence from the Chinese census[J].Journal of Population Economics, 2016.5.4,29(5):1063~1082.
[34]Adsera A.Vanishing Children:From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries[J].American Economic Review,2005,95(2):189-193.
[35]Sobotka T,Skirbekk V,Philipov D.Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World[J].Population and Development Review,2011,37(2):267-306.
[36]Marshall E A,Shepherd H.Fertility Preferences and Cognition:Religiosity and Experimental Effects of Decision Context on College Women[J].Journal of Marriage and Family,2018,80(2):521-536.
[37]Karaman觟rsal D D,Goldstein J R.The Changing Relationship between Unemployment and Total Fertility[J]. Population Studies,2018,72(1):109-121.
[38]Dupray A,PailhéA.Does Employment Uncertainty Particularly Impact Fertility of Children of North African Immigrants in France? A Gender Perspective[J]. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies,2018,44(3):401-424.
[39]王海龙.公共服务的分类框架:反思与重构[J].东南学术,2008(6):48-58.
[40]朱明宝,杨云彦.幸福感与居民的生育意愿——基于CGSS2013数据的经验研究[J].经济学动态,2017(3):52-61.
[2]郭晗,任保平.人口红利变化与中国经济发展方式转变[J].当代财经,2014(3):5-13.
[3]张亮.城市居民的二胎生育意愿及影响因素[J].湖南师范大学社会科学学报,2011,40(5):92-96.
[4]杨菊华.单独二孩政策下流动人口的生育意愿试析[J].中国人口科学,2015(1):89-96,128.
[5]乔晓春.从“单独二孩”政策执行效果看未来生育政策的选择[J].中国人口科学,2015(2):26-33,126.
[6]刘鸿雁,黄匡时.全国“单独两孩”政策实施效果研究——基于单独夫妇及其子女信息核查数据的分析[J].中国人口科学,2015(4):23-31,126.
[7]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果如何[J].人民论坛,2018(14):46-47.
[8]茅倬彦,罗昊.符合二胎政策妇女的生育意愿和生育行为差异——基于计划行为理论的实证研究[J].人口研究,2013,37(1):84-93.
[9]王军,王广州.中国育龄人群的生育意愿及其影响估计[J].中国人口科学,2013(4):26-35,126.
[10]姚从容,吴帆,李建民.我国城乡居民生育意愿调查研究综述:2000—2008[J].人口学刊,2010(2):17-22.
[11]罗维,柏松杉,刘欣,何静.社会公众二孩生育影响因素研究综述:2003—2015[J].学理论,2017(2):103-105.
[12]穆光宗.“全面二孩”政策实施效果和前景[J].中国经济报告,2017(1):24-26.
[13]Billari F C,Philipov D,Testa M R.Attitudes,Norms and Perceived Behavioural Control:Explaining Fertility Intentions in Bulgaria[J].European Journal of Population/Revue européenne de Démographie,2009,25(4):439.
[14]康传坤,孙根紧.基本养老保险制度对生育意愿的影响[J].财经科学,2018(3):67-79.
[15]王天宇,彭晓博.社会保障对生育意愿的影响:来自新型农村合作医疗的证据[J].经济研究,2015,50(2):103-117.
[16]刘一伟.社会养老保险、养老期望与生育意愿[J].人口与发展,2017,23(4):30-40.
[17]朱明宝,杨云彦.农村家庭养老模式变迁与低生育水平强化——来自湖北省宜昌市的经验证据[J].中国人口科学,2016(3):93-103,128.
[18]张兴月,张冲.农村居民生育意愿及其影响因素——基于社会保障的视角[J].农村经济,2015(11):59-64.
[19]Rosenzweig M R,Schultz T P.Child Mortality and Fertility in Colombia:Individual and Community Effects[J]. Health Policy and Education,1982,2(3-4):305-348.
[20]洪秀敏,朱文婷.二孩时代生还是不生?——独生父母家庭二孩生育意愿及影响因素探析[J].北京社会科学,2017(5):69-78.
[21]刘章生,刘桂海,周建丰,范丽琴.教育如何影响中国人的“二孩”意愿?——来自CGSS(2013)的证据[J].公共管理学报,2018,15(2):104-119,158.
[22]马良,方行明,雷震,蔡晓陈.独生子女性别会影响父母的二胎生育意愿吗?——基于中国综合社会调查(CGSS)数据的研究[J].人口学刊,2016,38(6):17-26.
[23]石贝贝,唐代盛,候蔺.中国人口生育意愿与男孩偏好研究[J].人口学刊,2017,39(2):28-36.
[24]卢海阳,邱航帆,郑逸芳.女性二胎生育意愿的影响因素研究——基于就业性质和养老观念的视角[J].南方人口,2017,32(3):55-68.
[25]谭雪萍.成本-效用视角下的单独二胎生育意愿影响因素研究——基于徐州市单独家庭的调查[J].南方人口,2015,30(2):1-12,22.
[26]谢俊贵,刘付杰晴.影响全面二孩政策推行的公共服务因素探析[J].岭南学刊,2017(2):63-68.
[27]江砥,董静,詹汉荣.生育新政之后民众二孩生育意愿影响因素探析——以湖北黄冈市区市民生育意愿随机问卷调查为例[J].人口与发展,2018,24(3):117-128.
[28]付文.全面放开二胎政策遇冷的影响因素分析[J].经济论坛,2018(1):128-131.
[29]刘厚莲.配偶随迁降低了流动人口生育意愿吗?[J].人口学刊,2017,39(4):40-49.
[30]杨菊华.流动人口二孩生育意愿研究[J].中国人口科学,2018(1):72-82,127-128.
[31]邓金虎,原新.流动妇女生育量及其影响因素研究——基于天津市流动人口监测数据[J].人口与发展,2017,23(5):49-55.
[32]陈煜婷.城镇就业人群生育意愿及其影响因素的性别差异研究——职业结构、时间分配和性别观念的效应[J].南方人口,2017,32(1):68-80.
[33]Xing Li,M.W.Luke Chan, Byron G. Spencer, Wei Yang. Does the marriage market sex ratio affect parental sex selection?Evidence from the Chinese census[J].Journal of Population Economics, 2016.5.4,29(5):1063~1082.
[34]Adsera A.Vanishing Children:From High Unemployment to Low Fertility in Developed Countries[J].American Economic Review,2005,95(2):189-193.
[35]Sobotka T,Skirbekk V,Philipov D.Economic Recession and Fertility in the Developed World[J].Population and Development Review,2011,37(2):267-306.
[36]Marshall E A,Shepherd H.Fertility Preferences and Cognition:Religiosity and Experimental Effects of Decision Context on College Women[J].Journal of Marriage and Family,2018,80(2):521-536.
[37]Karaman觟rsal D D,Goldstein J R.The Changing Relationship between Unemployment and Total Fertility[J]. Population Studies,2018,72(1):109-121.
[38]Dupray A,PailhéA.Does Employment Uncertainty Particularly Impact Fertility of Children of North African Immigrants in France? A Gender Perspective[J]. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies,2018,44(3):401-424.
[39]王海龙.公共服务的分类框架:反思与重构[J].东南学术,2008(6):48-58.
[40]朱明宝,杨云彦.幸福感与居民的生育意愿——基于CGSS2013数据的经验研究[J].经济学动态,2017(3):52-61.