北京市碳排放库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究
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摘要
自改革开放以来,我国经济高速发展,但是随之而来的碳排放问题也日趋突出。本文以传统的环境库兹涅茨模型为基础,对北京市1980-2016年的碳排放量与经济增长的关系进行了研究,并考虑了产业结构、能源强度和城镇化水平三个控制变量对碳排放的影响,建立了扩展的库兹涅茨模型进行综合分析。研究结果表明:第一,北京市碳排放量与经济增长之间存在倒N型关系,且目前处于递增阶段;第二,北京市碳排放量还受到产业结构、能源强度和城镇化率的影响。第二产业所占比重和能源强度对碳排放有正向的拉高作用,城镇化率对碳排放有拉低的作用。最后本文提出了对应的政策建议。
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed at a high speed, but the carbon e-mission problem has become increasingly prominent. Based on the traditional environmental Kuznets model,this paper studies the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing from 1980 to2016, and considers the effects of three control variables, industrial structure, energy intensity and ur-banization level, on carbon emissions. An extended Kuznets model is established for comprehensive analysis.The results show that there is an inverted N-type relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing, and the carbon emissions in Beijing are also affected by industrial structure, energy intensity and urbanization rate. The impact of the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity have positive effect on carbon emission, and urbanization rate has lowering effect on carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
Since the reform and opening up, China's economy has developed at a high speed, but the carbon e-mission problem has become increasingly prominent. Based on the traditional environmental Kuznets model,this paper studies the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing from 1980 to2016, and considers the effects of three control variables, industrial structure, energy intensity and ur-banization level, on carbon emissions. An extended Kuznets model is established for comprehensive analysis.The results show that there is an inverted N-type relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth in Beijing, and the carbon emissions in Beijing are also affected by industrial structure, energy intensity and urbanization rate. The impact of the proportion of secondary industry and energy intensity have positive effect on carbon emission, and urbanization rate has lowering effect on carbon emission. Finally, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations.
引文
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[11]ElifAkbostanc1.The relationship between income and environment in Turkey:Isthereanenvironmental Kuzn ets curve?[J].Energy Policy, 2009(37):861-867.
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[16]戴钰.基于分位数回归的二氧化碳排放与经济增长[J].经济数学.2012(3):74-77.
[17]高静,黄繁华.贸易视角下经济增长和环境质量的内在机理研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2011(5):66-74.
[18]国涓.空间影响与环境库兹涅茨曲线:基于空间经济计量方法的实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2009(4):678-684.
[19]陈德湖,张津.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(5):48-53.
[20]高广阔.新型城市碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线检验——基于中国城市面板数据分析[J].经济与管理评论,2015(4):5-10.
[21]林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009(3):27-36.
[22]李国志,李宗植.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异和影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(5):22-27.
[23]周少甫.中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证研究——基于Gregory-Hansen协整分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015(9):1471-1476.
[24]周塔尔才让.中国二氧化碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的验证[J].经济论坛,2014(11):137-160.
[25]顾宁,姜萍萍.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨效应识别与低碳政策选择[J].经济管理,2013(6):153-163.
[26]王维国,孟军.中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究——基于LSTR模型的二氧化碳环境库兹涅茨曲线[J].统计与信息论坛,2013(4):31-37.
[27]许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究—基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5):37-47.
[28]张为付,周长富.我国碳排放轨迹呈现倒U型吗?——基于不同区域经济发展与碳排放关系分析[J].经济管理,2011(6):14-23.
[29]胡宗义.低碳背景下碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线研究[J].统计研究,2013(2):73-79.
[30]黄炎,丁健.北京市二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系研究[J].中国物价,2016(9):68-71.
[31]吴振信,万埠磊.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的北京市碳排放与经济增长研究[J].经济研究导刊,2012(14):61-64.
[32]郑长德,刘帅.基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011(5):80-86.
[2]Sabrina Auci,LeonardoBecchetti.Theinstability of the adjusted and unadjustedenvironmentalKuznetscur ves[J].Ecological Economics,2006(60):282-298.
[3]Nicholas Apergis.Environmental Kuznets curves:New evidence on both panel and country-level CO2emissions[J].Energy Economics, 2016(54):263-271.
[4]ColeMA,Development,Trade,and the Environment:How Robust is theEnvironmental KunzetsCuvre[J].Environment and DevelopmentEconomics,2003(8):557-580.
[5]J.W.Sun.The natureof CO2emission Kuznets curve[J].Energy Policy,1999(27):691-694.
[6] Hiroki Iwata,KeisukeOkada,SovannroeunSamreth.Empirical study on the environmental Kuznets curve for CO2 in France:Therole of nuclear energy[J].Energy Policy,2010(38):4057-4063.
[7]OctavioFernández-Amador,JosephF.Francois,Dori sA.Oberdabernig,PatrickTomberger.Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Economic Growth:An Assessment Based on Production and Consumption Emission Inventories[J].Ecological Economics,2017(135):269-279.
[8]BehnazSaboorin, JamalludinSulaiman.Environmental degradation,economic growth and energy consumption:Evidence of the environmental Kuznets curve in Malaysia[J].Energy Policy,2013(60):892-905.
[9]Adnen Ben Nasr,RanganGupta,Joo Ricardo Sato, Is there an Environmental Kuznets Curve for South Africa?Aco-summability approach using a century of data[J].Energy Economics,2015(52):136-141.
[10]JieHe,Patrick Richard.Environmental Kuznets c urvefor CO2 inCanada[J].EcologicalEconomics,2010(69):1083-1093.
[11]ElifAkbostanc1.The relationship between income and environment in Turkey:Isthereanenvironmental Kuzn ets curve?[J].Energy Policy, 2009(37):861-867.
[12] Birgit Friedl,MichaelGetzner.Determinants of CO2emissions in a small open economy[J].Ecological Economics,2003(45):133-148.
[13]Panayotou,T.Demystifying the environmental Ku znets curve:turningablack box into a policy tool[J].Environment and Development Economics,1997(4):465-484.
[14]Moomaw,W.R.,Unruh,G.C.,Are environmental Kuzn ets curves misleadingus? The case of CO2emissions[J].Environment and Development Economics,1997(4):451-463.
[15]孙作人.结构变动与二氧化碳排放库兹涅茨曲线特征研究—基于分位数回归与指数分解相结合的方法[J].数理统计与管理,2015(1):59-74.
[16]戴钰.基于分位数回归的二氧化碳排放与经济增长[J].经济数学.2012(3):74-77.
[17]高静,黄繁华.贸易视角下经济增长和环境质量的内在机理研究[J].上海财经大学学报,2011(5):66-74.
[18]国涓.空间影响与环境库兹涅茨曲线:基于空间经济计量方法的实证分析[J].数理统计与管理,2009(4):678-684.
[19]陈德湖,张津.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨曲线分析——基于空间面板模型的实证研究[J].统计与信息论坛,2012(5):48-53.
[20]高广阔.新型城市碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线检验——基于中国城市面板数据分析[J].经济与管理评论,2015(4):5-10.
[21]林伯强,蒋竺均.中国二氧化碳的环境库兹涅茨曲线预测及影响因素分析[J].管理世界,2009(3):27-36.
[22]李国志,李宗植.中国二氧化碳排放的区域差异和影响因素研究[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2010(5):22-27.
[23]周少甫.中国碳排放库兹涅茨曲线实证研究——基于Gregory-Hansen协整分析[J].长江流域资源与环境,2015(9):1471-1476.
[24]周塔尔才让.中国二氧化碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的验证[J].经济论坛,2014(11):137-160.
[25]顾宁,姜萍萍.中国碳排放的环境库兹涅茨效应识别与低碳政策选择[J].经济管理,2013(6):153-163.
[26]王维国,孟军.中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究——基于LSTR模型的二氧化碳环境库兹涅茨曲线[J].统计与信息论坛,2013(4):31-37.
[27]许广月,宋德勇.中国碳排放环境库兹涅茨曲线的实证研究—基于省域面板数据[J].中国工业经济,2010(5):37-47.
[28]张为付,周长富.我国碳排放轨迹呈现倒U型吗?——基于不同区域经济发展与碳排放关系分析[J].经济管理,2011(6):14-23.
[29]胡宗义.低碳背景下碳排放的库兹涅茨曲线研究[J].统计研究,2013(2):73-79.
[30]黄炎,丁健.北京市二氧化碳排放与经济增长关系研究[J].中国物价,2016(9):68-71.
[31]吴振信,万埠磊.基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的北京市碳排放与经济增长研究[J].经济研究导刊,2012(14):61-64.
[32]郑长德,刘帅.基于空间计量经济学的碳排放与经济增长分析[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2011(5):80-86.