Convective Bursts Episode of the Rapidly Intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015)
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摘要
Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius—which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification(RI)—provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree(CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced.Furthermore, an intense CAD(ICAD) signal threshold(with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore,this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.
Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius—which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification(RI)—provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree(CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced.Furthermore, an intense CAD(ICAD) signal threshold(with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore,this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.
Convective burst(CB) characteristics at distinct stages of a rapidly intensified Typhoon Mujigae(2015), are investigated based on a 72-h simulation. The spatial features show that almost all CB elements develop in the eyewall. The number of CBs in the inner-core region within a 100 km radius—which account for a large proportion of the total CBs, with a sharp increase about 6 h before the onset of rapid intensification(RI)—provides some indication of the RI of the typhoon. The CBs during pre-RI and RI are examined from dynamic and thermodynamic viewpoints. The combination of lower-level convergent inflow and upper-level divergent outflow pushes a relay-race-like transmission of convective activity, favorable for the development of deep convection. A double warm-core structure is induced by the centripetal outflow sinking and warming associated with CBs, which directly accelerates RI by a sudden decrease in hydrostatic pressure. By utilizing the convection activity degree(CAD) index derived from the local total energy anomaly, a correlation formula between CBs and CAD is deduced.Furthermore, an intense CAD(ICAD) signal threshold(with a value equal to 100) to predict CBs is obtained. It is verified that this ICAD threshold is effective for estimating the occurrence of a CB episode and predicting RI of a typhoon. Therefore,this threshold may be a valuable tool for identifying CB episodes and forecasting rapidly intensified typhoons.
引文
Chen,H.,and D.L.Zhang,2013:On the rapid intensification of Hurricane Wilma(2005).Part II:Convective bursts and the upper-level warm core.J.Atmos.Sci.,70,146-162,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-12-062.1.
Fierro,A.O.,and J.M.Reisner,2011:High-resolution simulation of the electrification and lightning of Hurricane Rita during the period of rapid intensification.J.Atmos.Sci.,68,477-494,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3659.1.
Gentry,R.C.,T.T.Fujita,and R.C.Sheets,1970:Aircraft,spacecraft,satellite and radar observations of Hurricane Gladys,1968.J.Appl.Meteor.,9,837-850,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0837:ASSARO>2.0.CO;2.
Gray,W.M.,1998:The formation of tropical cyclones.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,67,37-69,https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277501.
Guimond,S.R.,G.M.Heymsfield,and F.J.Turk,2010:Multiscale observations of Hurricane Dennis(2005):The effects of hot towers on rapid intensification.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,633-654,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3119.1.
Guimond,S.R.,G.M.Heymsfield,P.D.Reasor,and A.C.Didlake Jr.,2016:The rapid intensification of Hurricane Karl(2010):New remote sensing observations of convective bursts from the Global Hawk platform.J.Atmos.Sci.,73,3617-3639,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0026.1.
Halverson,J.B.,J.Simpson,G.Heymsfield,H.Pierce,T.Hock,and L.Ritchie,2006:Warm core structure of Hurricane Erin diagnosed from high altitude dropsondes during CAMEX-4.J.Atmos.Sci.,63,309-324,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3596.1.
Hanley,D.E.,2002:The evolution of a hurricane-trough interaction from a satellite perspective.Wea.Forecasting,17,916-926,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0916:TEOAHT>2.0.CO;2.
Hazelton,A.T.,R.F.Rogers,and R.E.Hart,2017:Analyzing simulated convective bursts in two Atlantic hurricanes.Part I:Burst formation and development.Mon.Wea.Rev.,145,3073-3094,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0267.1.
Heymsfield,G.M.,J.B.Halverson,J.Simpson,L.Tian,and T.P.Bui,2001:ER-2 Doppler radar investigations of the eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie during the Convection and Moisture Experiment-3.J.Appl.Meteor.,40,1310-1330,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1310:EDRIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Hirschberg,P.A.,and J.M.Fritsch,1993:On understanding height tendency,Mon.Wea.Rev.,121,2646-2661,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2646:OUHT>2.0.CO;2.
Holland,G.J.,1997:The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones.J.Atmos.Sci.,54,2519-2541,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<2519:TMPIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Holliday,C.R.,and A.H.Thompson,1979:Climatological characteristics of rapidly intensifying typhoons.Mon.Wea.Rev.,107,1022-1034,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1022:CCORIT>2.0.CO;2.
Kain,J.S.,2004:The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update.J.Appl.Meteor.,43,170-181,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2.
Kain,J.S.,and J.M.Fritsch,1990:A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization.J.Atmos.Sci.,47,2784-2802,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2.
Kaplan,J.,and M.DeMaria,2003:Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.Wea.Forecasting,18,1093-1108,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2.
Kelley,O.A.,J.Stout,and J.B.Halverson,2004:Tall precipitation cells in tropical cyclone eyewalls are associated with tropical cyclone intensification.Geophys.Res.Lett.,31,L24112,https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021616.
Liu,Y.B.,D.-L.Zhang,and M.K.Yau,1997:A multiscale numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part I:Explicit simulation and verification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,125,3073-3093,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3073:AMNSOH>2.0.CO;2.
Menelaou,K.,M.K.Yau,and Y.Martinez,2013:On the origin and impact of a polygonal eyewall in the rapid intensification of hurricane Wilma(2005).J.Atmos.Sci.,70,3839-3858,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-091.1.
Michalakes,J.,J.Dudhia,D.O.Gill,T.B.Henderson,J.B.Klemp,W.Skamarock,and W.Wang,2005:The Weather Research and Forecast Model:Software architecture and performance.Proc.11th Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology,Reading,United Kingdom,ECMWF,156-168.
Montgomery,M.T.,M.E.Nicholls,T.A.Cram,and A.B.Saunders,2006:A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis.J.Atmos.Sci.,63,355-386,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3604.1.
Nolan,D.S.,2007:What is the trigger for tropical cyclogenesis?Aust.Meteor.Mag.,56,241-266.
Rodgers,E.B.,W.Olson,J.Halverson,J.Simpson,and H.Pierce,2000:Environmental forcing of Supertyphoon Paka’s(1997)latent heat structure.J.Appl.Meteor.,39,1983-2006,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1983:EFOSPS>2.0.CO;2.
Rogers,R.,P.Reasor,and S.Lorsolo,2013:Airborne Doppler observations of the inner-core structural differences between intensifying and steady-state tropical cyclones.Mon.Wea.Rev.,141,2970-2991,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00357.1.
Rogers,R.,S.Aberson,J.Kaplan,and S.Goldenberg,2002:Apronounced upper-tropospheric warm anomaly encountered by the NOAA G-IV aircraft in the vicinity of deep convection.Mon.Wea.Rev.,130,180-187,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0180:APUTWA>2.0.CO;2.
Steranka,J.,E.B.Rodgers,and R.C.Gentry,1986:The relationship between satellite measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,114,1539-1546,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1539:TRBSMC>2.0.CO;2.
Tang,X.B.,F.,Ping,S.Yang,M.X.Li,and J.Peng,2018:Relationship between convective bursts and the rapid intensification of typhoon Mujigae(2015).Atmospheric Science Letters,19,e811,https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.811.
Vallis,G.K.,2006:Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics:Fundamentals and Large-Scale Circulation.Cambridge University Press,40 pp.
Wadler,J.B.,R.F.Rogers,and P.D.Reasor,2018:The relationship between spatial variations in the structure of convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification as determined by airborne Doppler radar.Mon.Wea.Rev.,146,761-780,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0213.1.
Wang,H.,and Y.Q.Wang,2014:A numerical study of Typhoon Megi(2010).Part I:Rapid intensification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,142(1),29-48,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00070.1.
Yang,S.,Q.J.Zuo,and S.T.Gao,2017:Image of local energy anomaly during a heavy rainfall event.Chin.Phys.B,26(11),119201,https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-1056/26/11/119201.
Zhang,D.-L.,and J.M.Fritsch,1988:Numerical sensitivity experiments of varying model physics on the structure,evolution and dynamics of two mesoscale convective systems.J.Atmos.Sci.,45,261-293,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0261:NSEOVM>2.0.CO;2.
Zhang,D.L.,and H.Chen,2012:Importance of the upper-level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone.Geophys.Res.Lett.,39,L02806,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050578.
Fierro,A.O.,and J.M.Reisner,2011:High-resolution simulation of the electrification and lightning of Hurricane Rita during the period of rapid intensification.J.Atmos.Sci.,68,477-494,https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JAS3659.1.
Gentry,R.C.,T.T.Fujita,and R.C.Sheets,1970:Aircraft,spacecraft,satellite and radar observations of Hurricane Gladys,1968.J.Appl.Meteor.,9,837-850,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(1970)009<0837:ASSARO>2.0.CO;2.
Gray,W.M.,1998:The formation of tropical cyclones.Meteor.Atmos.Phys.,67,37-69,https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01277501.
Guimond,S.R.,G.M.Heymsfield,and F.J.Turk,2010:Multiscale observations of Hurricane Dennis(2005):The effects of hot towers on rapid intensification.J.Atmos.Sci.,67,633-654,https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JAS3119.1.
Guimond,S.R.,G.M.Heymsfield,P.D.Reasor,and A.C.Didlake Jr.,2016:The rapid intensification of Hurricane Karl(2010):New remote sensing observations of convective bursts from the Global Hawk platform.J.Atmos.Sci.,73,3617-3639,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-16-0026.1.
Halverson,J.B.,J.Simpson,G.Heymsfield,H.Pierce,T.Hock,and L.Ritchie,2006:Warm core structure of Hurricane Erin diagnosed from high altitude dropsondes during CAMEX-4.J.Atmos.Sci.,63,309-324,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3596.1.
Hanley,D.E.,2002:The evolution of a hurricane-trough interaction from a satellite perspective.Wea.Forecasting,17,916-926,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0916:TEOAHT>2.0.CO;2.
Hazelton,A.T.,R.F.Rogers,and R.E.Hart,2017:Analyzing simulated convective bursts in two Atlantic hurricanes.Part I:Burst formation and development.Mon.Wea.Rev.,145,3073-3094,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-16-0267.1.
Heymsfield,G.M.,J.B.Halverson,J.Simpson,L.Tian,and T.P.Bui,2001:ER-2 Doppler radar investigations of the eyewall of Hurricane Bonnie during the Convection and Moisture Experiment-3.J.Appl.Meteor.,40,1310-1330,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1310:EDRIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Hirschberg,P.A.,and J.M.Fritsch,1993:On understanding height tendency,Mon.Wea.Rev.,121,2646-2661,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1993)121<2646:OUHT>2.0.CO;2.
Holland,G.J.,1997:The maximum potential intensity of tropical cyclones.J.Atmos.Sci.,54,2519-2541,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1997)054<2519:TMPIOT>2.0.CO;2.
Holliday,C.R.,and A.H.Thompson,1979:Climatological characteristics of rapidly intensifying typhoons.Mon.Wea.Rev.,107,1022-1034,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1979)107<1022:CCORIT>2.0.CO;2.
Kain,J.S.,2004:The Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization:An update.J.Appl.Meteor.,43,170-181,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2004)043<0170:TKCPAU>2.0.CO;2.
Kain,J.S.,and J.M.Fritsch,1990:A one-dimensional entraining/detraining plume model and its application in convective parameterization.J.Atmos.Sci.,47,2784-2802,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1990)047<2784:AODEPM>2.0.CO;2.
Kaplan,J.,and M.DeMaria,2003:Large-scale characteristics of rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic basin.Wea.Forecasting,18,1093-1108,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1093:LCORIT>2.0.CO;2.
Kelley,O.A.,J.Stout,and J.B.Halverson,2004:Tall precipitation cells in tropical cyclone eyewalls are associated with tropical cyclone intensification.Geophys.Res.Lett.,31,L24112,https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GL021616.
Liu,Y.B.,D.-L.Zhang,and M.K.Yau,1997:A multiscale numerical study of Hurricane Andrew(1992).Part I:Explicit simulation and verification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,125,3073-3093,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<3073:AMNSOH>2.0.CO;2.
Menelaou,K.,M.K.Yau,and Y.Martinez,2013:On the origin and impact of a polygonal eyewall in the rapid intensification of hurricane Wilma(2005).J.Atmos.Sci.,70,3839-3858,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-13-091.1.
Michalakes,J.,J.Dudhia,D.O.Gill,T.B.Henderson,J.B.Klemp,W.Skamarock,and W.Wang,2005:The Weather Research and Forecast Model:Software architecture and performance.Proc.11th Workshop on the Use of High Performance Computing in Meteorology,Reading,United Kingdom,ECMWF,156-168.
Montgomery,M.T.,M.E.Nicholls,T.A.Cram,and A.B.Saunders,2006:A vortical hot tower route to tropical cyclogenesis.J.Atmos.Sci.,63,355-386,https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3604.1.
Nolan,D.S.,2007:What is the trigger for tropical cyclogenesis?Aust.Meteor.Mag.,56,241-266.
Rodgers,E.B.,W.Olson,J.Halverson,J.Simpson,and H.Pierce,2000:Environmental forcing of Supertyphoon Paka’s(1997)latent heat structure.J.Appl.Meteor.,39,1983-2006,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0450(2001)040<1983:EFOSPS>2.0.CO;2.
Rogers,R.,P.Reasor,and S.Lorsolo,2013:Airborne Doppler observations of the inner-core structural differences between intensifying and steady-state tropical cyclones.Mon.Wea.Rev.,141,2970-2991,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-12-00357.1.
Rogers,R.,S.Aberson,J.Kaplan,and S.Goldenberg,2002:Apronounced upper-tropospheric warm anomaly encountered by the NOAA G-IV aircraft in the vicinity of deep convection.Mon.Wea.Rev.,130,180-187,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(2002)130<0180:APUTWA>2.0.CO;2.
Steranka,J.,E.B.Rodgers,and R.C.Gentry,1986:The relationship between satellite measured convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,114,1539-1546,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1986)114<1539:TRBSMC>2.0.CO;2.
Tang,X.B.,F.,Ping,S.Yang,M.X.Li,and J.Peng,2018:Relationship between convective bursts and the rapid intensification of typhoon Mujigae(2015).Atmospheric Science Letters,19,e811,https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.811.
Vallis,G.K.,2006:Atmospheric and Oceanic Fluid Dynamics:Fundamentals and Large-Scale Circulation.Cambridge University Press,40 pp.
Wadler,J.B.,R.F.Rogers,and P.D.Reasor,2018:The relationship between spatial variations in the structure of convective bursts and tropical cyclone intensification as determined by airborne Doppler radar.Mon.Wea.Rev.,146,761-780,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-17-0213.1.
Wang,H.,and Y.Q.Wang,2014:A numerical study of Typhoon Megi(2010).Part I:Rapid intensification.Mon.Wea.Rev.,142(1),29-48,https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-13-00070.1.
Yang,S.,Q.J.Zuo,and S.T.Gao,2017:Image of local energy anomaly during a heavy rainfall event.Chin.Phys.B,26(11),119201,https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-1056/26/11/119201.
Zhang,D.-L.,and J.M.Fritsch,1988:Numerical sensitivity experiments of varying model physics on the structure,evolution and dynamics of two mesoscale convective systems.J.Atmos.Sci.,45,261-293,https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<0261:NSEOVM>2.0.CO;2.
Zhang,D.L.,and H.Chen,2012:Importance of the upper-level warm core in the rapid intensification of a tropical cyclone.Geophys.Res.Lett.,39,L02806,https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL050578.