秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震趋势判断与时空对称规律
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摘要
选取秘鲁地区1970年以来M_w≥6.9的地震数据,根据可公度性理论,提取秘鲁强震的可公度信息,采用蝴蝶结构图、可公度网络结构图和震中迁移方法,探索该地区强震活动的时空对称性,同时对可能触发地震的天文现象与地震灾害的发生进行相关分析,进一步验证趋势判断结果,发现相关规律.研究结果表明:1970年以来秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震具有可公度性,2019年在秘鲁北部(73°W,11°S附近)发生中深源地震的信号较强;太阳活动、地球自转、月球运动与秘鲁地震的发生具有一定相关性,秘鲁M_w≥6.9地震发生在太阳活动峰值年、下降段的占77.78%,发生在太阳活动双周期的占66.67%,发生在地球自转变化率较大年份的占60%,朔月前后是地震频发期(占44.44%),朔月、下弦月前后地震发生次数达83.33%.
Based on the seismic data(M_w ≥6.9)in Peru,the signal intensity of the earthquakes tendency is analyzed and judged by the methods of commensurability information according to the theory of commensurability.The butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system and epicenter migration approach are employed to prove the reliability of the forecast result and reveal how the astronomical factors affect strong earthquake activities.It shows that the seismic activities of M_w≥6.9 in Peru since 1970 exhibit obvious commensurability,the tendency of an intermediate focus earthquake occurring in 2019 is strong with the random probability of 55.56%.Besides,the great earthquakes in Peru have a significant relationship with the solar activity,earth's rotation and lunar movement:Previous earthquakes mostly occurred in the solar activity peak and decline period,the double cycle of sunspot and the years with variance of the Earth's rotation rate;Earthquake unlikely occurred in full moon and twilight moon days.
Based on the seismic data(M_w ≥6.9)in Peru,the signal intensity of the earthquakes tendency is analyzed and judged by the methods of commensurability information according to the theory of commensurability.The butterfly structure diagram,commensurability structure system and epicenter migration approach are employed to prove the reliability of the forecast result and reveal how the astronomical factors affect strong earthquake activities.It shows that the seismic activities of M_w≥6.9 in Peru since 1970 exhibit obvious commensurability,the tendency of an intermediate focus earthquake occurring in 2019 is strong with the random probability of 55.56%.Besides,the great earthquakes in Peru have a significant relationship with the solar activity,earth's rotation and lunar movement:Previous earthquakes mostly occurred in the solar activity peak and decline period,the double cycle of sunspot and the years with variance of the Earth's rotation rate;Earthquake unlikely occurred in full moon and twilight moon days.
引文
[1]延军平.重大自然灾害时空对称性研究[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版总社有限公司,2013.YAN J P.Study on Spatiotemporal Symmetry of Natural Disasters[M].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University Publishing House Limited,2013.
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[10]李双双,延军平.西太平洋俯冲带北部地区Ms≥8强震时空对称特征[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(3):960-966.LI S S,YAN J P.Space-time symmetry of Ms≥8earthquake in North-Western Pacific Plate subduction[J].Progress in Geophysics,2012,27(3):960-966.
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[13]MEN K P.On the characteristics of the ordered network structure for severe floods and droughts over China with the application to prediction[J].Progress in Geographysics,2005,20(3):867-876.
[14]李梦洁,延军平.河南省旱灾对称性特征及趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,27(8):71-75LI M J,YAN J P.Symmetry characteristics and trend judgment of drought in Henan[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,27(8):71-75.
[15]吴梦初,延军平,刘栎彬.甘肃省雨涝灾害时间对称性及趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(8):125-131.WU M C,YAN J P,LIU L S.Water logging disasters tendency judgment in Gansu province based on commensurability[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(8):125-131.
[16]张涛涛.气候变化下青藏高原雪灾趋势判断及相关机理分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013.ZHANG T T.The Trend Judgment and Related Mechanism of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[D].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University,2013.
[17]刘永林,延军平.香港热带气旋趋势判断及相关机理分析[J].地球物理学进展,2015,30(1):15-21.LIU Y L,YAN J P.The trend judgment and related mechanism of Hong Kong tropical cyclones[J].Progress in Geophysics,2015,30(1):15-21.
[18]芦佳玉,延军平.印度尼西亚VEI≥4的火山喷发活动规律及未来趋势统计研究[J].地球物理学进展,2016,31(5):1953-1958.LU J Y,YAN J P.Active pattern and future trend of volcanic eruption with VEI≥4in Indonesia region[J].Progress in Geophysics,2016,31(5):1953-1958.
[19]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1168.YAN J P,BAI J,SU K H,et al.Research on symmetry and theory of several major natural disasters[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1159-1168.
[20]延军平,李英杰,李双双,等.重大自然灾害时空对称性方法体系综述[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):149-154,182.YAN J P,LI Y J,LI S S,et al.Review on spatiotemporal symmetry methodology of natural disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):149-154,182.
[21]宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.全球地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,2011.SONG Z P,ZHANG G M,LIU J,et al.Global Earthquake Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.
[22]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.WENG W B.Commensurability[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1981,24(2):151-154.
[23]李双双.对称性与部分强震时空结构及其物理机制分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013LI S S.Research on Symmetry and Space-Time Structure and Its Mechanism of Several Strong Earthquake[D].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University,2013.
[24]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题(综述)[J].国际地震动态,1983(1):7-10.GUO Z J,QIN B Y.Problems of earthquake migration(an overview)[J].Recent Development in World Seismology,1983(1):7-10.
[25]郭增建,郭安宁.由震中迁移交汇预测大震的讨论[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(1):1-3.GUO Z J,GUO A N.Discussion on the prediction of large earthquakes based on the intersection of epicenter migration[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(1):1-3.
[26]韩延本,郭增建,吴瑾冰,等.太阳活动对中国近东西向断层8级大地震的可能触发[J].中国科学:G辑,2003(6):567-573.HAN Y B,GUO Z J,WU J B,et al.The possible triggering of solar activity on the near east fault M8earthquake in China[J].Science in China:Ser G,2003(6):567-573.
[27]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.QIN S Q,XU X W,HU P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[28]蒋伯琴.太阳黑子、磁暴与地震活动的关系[J].地震学报,1985(4):452-460.JIANG B Q.The relationship among sunspots,magnetic storms and earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1985(4):452-460.
[29]李英杰,延军平,唐宝琪,等.美国圣安德烈斯断裂带强震活动规律及未来趋势研讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(4):56-63.LI Y J,YAN J P,TANG B Q,et al.Tendency judgement of Mw≥6.8earthquake in San Andreas fault[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2016,27(4):56-63.
[30]陈学忠,李艳娥,王恒信,等.2004年印尼苏门答腊Mw9.0地震前地震活动增强现象及其与地球自转的关系[J].地球物理学学报,2013,56(1):79-90.CHEN X Z,LI Y E,WANG H X,et al.The enhancement of seismicity before the 2004 Mw9.0Indonesia Sumatra earthquake and its relation to the earth rotation[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(1):79-90.
[31]马宗晋,陈章立,傅征祥,等.亚欧地震系的地震构造特征[J].中国科学:A辑,1980(9):883-890.MA Z J,CHEN Z L,FU Z X,et al.The seismic structural characteristics of the Eurasian Seismotectonics[J].Science in China:Ser A,1980(9):883-890.
[32]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,等.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.XU D Y,ZHENG W Z,AN Z S,et al.The Celestial Movement and Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1980.
[33]延军平.时间地理学:动态地理学概论[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版社,1994.YAN J P.Time Geography:A Introduction to Dynamic Geography[M].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University Press,1994.
[2]延军平,闫娜.关于地震预测体系构建的可能性及验证[J].陕西师范大学学报(哲学社会科学版),2008,37(5):19-23YAN J P,YAN N.Probability and verification of constructing an earthquake predicting system[J].Journal of Shaanxi Normal University(Philosophy and Social Sciences Edition),2008,37(5):19-23.
[3]许绍燮.地震应可预测[M].北京:地震出版社,2011.XU S X.The Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.
[4]延军平,李双双,刘新颜,等.基于对称性的中国台湾地震趋势判断及物理基础[J].灾害学,2013,28(1):11-14,27.YAN J P,LI S S,LIU X Y,et al.The trend judgment of earthquake in Taiwan based on symmetry theory and its physical basis[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2013,28(1):11-14,27.
[5]翁文波.预测论基础[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1984.WENG W B.Fundamentals of Forecasting Theory[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1984.
[6]翁文波,吕牛顿,张清.预测学[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1996WENG W B,LYU N D,ZHANG Q.Theory of Forecasting[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1996.
[7]翁文波,张清.天干地支纪历与预测[M].北京:石油工业出版社,1993WENG W B,ZHANG Q.The Gan-Zhi Calendar System and Forecasting[M].Beijing:Petroleum Industry Press,1993.
[8]龙小霞,延军平,孙虎,等.基于可公度方法的川滇地区地震趋势研究[J].灾害学,2006,21(3):81-84.LONG X X,YAN J P,SUN H,et al.Study on earthquake tendency in Sichuan-Yunnan region based on commensurability[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2006,21(3):81-84.
[9]门可佩.青藏高原北部地区7级强震的有序网络特征及其预测研究[J].地球物理学进展,2003,18(3):765-771.MEN K P.Ordered network feature of M≥7earthquakes and its prediction in northern part of QinghaiXizang Plateau[J].Progress in Geophysics,2003,18(3):765-771.
[10]李双双,延军平.西太平洋俯冲带北部地区Ms≥8强震时空对称特征[J].地球物理学进展,2012,27(3):960-966.LI S S,YAN J P.Space-time symmetry of Ms≥8earthquake in North-Western Pacific Plate subduction[J].Progress in Geophysics,2012,27(3):960-966.
[11]MEN K P,ZHAO K.The 2015 Nepal M8.1earthquake and the prediction for M≥8earthquakes in West China[J].Natural Hazards,2016,82(3):1767-1776.
[12]丁彩霞,延军平,林敏敏,等.意大利Ms≥6地震时空对称性趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(8):50-54.DING C X,YAN J P,LIN M M,et al.Research on space-time symmetry of Ms≥6earthquake disasters in Italy[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(8):50-54.
[13]MEN K P.On the characteristics of the ordered network structure for severe floods and droughts over China with the application to prediction[J].Progress in Geographysics,2005,20(3):867-876.
[14]李梦洁,延军平.河南省旱灾对称性特征及趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2012,27(8):71-75LI M J,YAN J P.Symmetry characteristics and trend judgment of drought in Henan[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2012,27(8):71-75.
[15]吴梦初,延军平,刘栎彬.甘肃省雨涝灾害时间对称性及趋势判断[J].干旱区资源与环境,2014,28(8):125-131.WU M C,YAN J P,LIU L S.Water logging disasters tendency judgment in Gansu province based on commensurability[J].Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment,2014,28(8):125-131.
[16]张涛涛.气候变化下青藏高原雪灾趋势判断及相关机理分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013.ZHANG T T.The Trend Judgment and Related Mechanism of Qinghai-Xizang Plateau[D].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University,2013.
[17]刘永林,延军平.香港热带气旋趋势判断及相关机理分析[J].地球物理学进展,2015,30(1):15-21.LIU Y L,YAN J P.The trend judgment and related mechanism of Hong Kong tropical cyclones[J].Progress in Geophysics,2015,30(1):15-21.
[18]芦佳玉,延军平.印度尼西亚VEI≥4的火山喷发活动规律及未来趋势统计研究[J].地球物理学进展,2016,31(5):1953-1958.LU J Y,YAN J P.Active pattern and future trend of volcanic eruption with VEI≥4in Indonesia region[J].Progress in Geophysics,2016,31(5):1953-1958.
[19]延军平,白晶,苏坤慧,等.对称性与部分重大自然灾害趋势研究[J].地理研究,2011,30(7):1159-1168.YAN J P,BAI J,SU K H,et al.Research on symmetry and theory of several major natural disasters[J].Geographical Research,2011,30(7):1159-1168.
[20]延军平,李英杰,李双双,等.重大自然灾害时空对称性方法体系综述[J].灾害学,2017,32(1):149-154,182.YAN J P,LI Y J,LI S S,et al.Review on spatiotemporal symmetry methodology of natural disasters[J].Journal of Catastrophology,2017,32(1):149-154,182.
[21]宋治平,张国民,刘杰,等.全球地震目录[M].北京:地震出版社,2011.SONG Z P,ZHANG G M,LIU J,et al.Global Earthquake Catalog[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,2011.
[22]翁文波.可公度性[J].地球物理学报,1981,24(2):151-154.WENG W B.Commensurability[J].Acta Geophysica Sinica,1981,24(2):151-154.
[23]李双双.对称性与部分强震时空结构及其物理机制分析[D].西安:陕西师范大学,2013LI S S.Research on Symmetry and Space-Time Structure and Its Mechanism of Several Strong Earthquake[D].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University,2013.
[24]郭增建,秦保燕.地震迁移问题(综述)[J].国际地震动态,1983(1):7-10.GUO Z J,QIN B Y.Problems of earthquake migration(an overview)[J].Recent Development in World Seismology,1983(1):7-10.
[25]郭增建,郭安宁.由震中迁移交汇预测大震的讨论[J].地震工程学报,2016,38(1):1-3.GUO Z J,GUO A N.Discussion on the prediction of large earthquakes based on the intersection of epicenter migration[J].China Earthquake Engineering Journal,2016,38(1):1-3.
[26]韩延本,郭增建,吴瑾冰,等.太阳活动对中国近东西向断层8级大地震的可能触发[J].中国科学:G辑,2003(6):567-573.HAN Y B,GUO Z J,WU J B,et al.The possible triggering of solar activity on the near east fault M8earthquake in China[J].Science in China:Ser G,2003(6):567-573.
[27]秦四清,徐锡伟,胡平,等.孕震断层的多锁固段脆性破裂机制与地震预测新方法的探索[J].地球物理学报,2010,53(4):1001-1014.QIN S Q,XU X W,HU P,et al.Brittle failure mechanism of multiple locked patches in a seismogenic fault system and exploration on a new way for earthquake prediction[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2010,53(4):1001-1014.
[28]蒋伯琴.太阳黑子、磁暴与地震活动的关系[J].地震学报,1985(4):452-460.JIANG B Q.The relationship among sunspots,magnetic storms and earthquakes[J].Acta Seismologica Sinica,1985(4):452-460.
[29]李英杰,延军平,唐宝琪,等.美国圣安德烈斯断裂带强震活动规律及未来趋势研讨[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2016,27(4):56-63.LI Y J,YAN J P,TANG B Q,et al.Tendency judgement of Mw≥6.8earthquake in San Andreas fault[J].The Chinese Journal of Geological Hazard and Control,2016,27(4):56-63.
[30]陈学忠,李艳娥,王恒信,等.2004年印尼苏门答腊Mw9.0地震前地震活动增强现象及其与地球自转的关系[J].地球物理学学报,2013,56(1):79-90.CHEN X Z,LI Y E,WANG H X,et al.The enhancement of seismicity before the 2004 Mw9.0Indonesia Sumatra earthquake and its relation to the earth rotation[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,2013,56(1):79-90.
[31]马宗晋,陈章立,傅征祥,等.亚欧地震系的地震构造特征[J].中国科学:A辑,1980(9):883-890.MA Z J,CHEN Z L,FU Z X,et al.The seismic structural characteristics of the Eurasian Seismotectonics[J].Science in China:Ser A,1980(9):883-890.
[32]徐道一,郑文振,安振声,等.天体运行与地震预报[M].北京:地震出版社,1980.XU D Y,ZHENG W Z,AN Z S,et al.The Celestial Movement and Earthquake Prediction[M].Beijing:Seismological Press,1980.
[33]延军平.时间地理学:动态地理学概论[M].西安:陕西师范大学出版社,1994.YAN J P.Time Geography:A Introduction to Dynamic Geography[M].Xian:Shaanxi Normal University Press,1994.