基于统计-FloodArea模型的平原水网区致灾临界雨量研究
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摘要
论文基于江苏老濉河流域降水、水位和流量观测数据,利用统计-Flood Area模型相结合的方法计算了平原水网区致灾临界雨量。从水位变幅角度构建了流域不同时段累计面雨量-洪水涨幅统计模型,并计算出致灾临界雨量。在修订河道高程的基础上,利用Flood Area模型模拟典型暴雨洪涝事件的动态淹没过程,建立不同时段累计面雨量与模拟水位涨幅之间的幂函数关系,计算出另一组致灾临界雨量。对比发现两组致灾临界雨量基本一致,24 h三个等级致灾临界雨量对应泗洪气象站167 a、17 a和2 a一遇降水量。统计模型能较好地捕捉短时降水与洪水涨幅的关系,Flood Area模型则更好地反映了长历时暴雨洪涝事件的雨洪关系,整合两种方法,可得到更科学的平原水网区暴雨洪涝致灾临界雨量。
Accompanying with developing economy, wet-net plains locating at the down basin of large rivers are becoming more vulnerable to rainstorm events than before. Combining DEM, terrain data and meteorology-hydrology characteristics of Jiangsu wet-net plain, we handled the mechanism of rainstorm flood through analyzing the meteorological and hydrological data. The water level of Laosui River changed with the quantity and intensity of the rainfall. Based on the correlation of water level increment and accumulative rainfalls, we modeled the linear relations during 2007-2011 and got a series of critical rainfalls. Then the heavy precipitation event occurred in 2010 was chosen to testify the statistical rainfalls.Inputting the hourly precipitation into Flood Area(FA), the water level dynamics were grasped which correlated with the input precipitation powerfully. Compared with the statistical results,the thresholds calculated by the FA model showed smaller value at higher risk level and greater value at lower risk level, but the variability is almost less than 5%. The recurrence periods of critical rainfalls in 24 h are 167 a, 17 a and 2 a, respectively. With observation data, the relationships of precipitation-water level can be analyzed adequately, especially in short duration, while FA method has advantage in evaluating long duration correlation. The data from statistical method and FA simulation can be integrated and used as indices in flood disaster warning. Selection of proper indice is a key point of risk warning services.
Accompanying with developing economy, wet-net plains locating at the down basin of large rivers are becoming more vulnerable to rainstorm events than before. Combining DEM, terrain data and meteorology-hydrology characteristics of Jiangsu wet-net plain, we handled the mechanism of rainstorm flood through analyzing the meteorological and hydrological data. The water level of Laosui River changed with the quantity and intensity of the rainfall. Based on the correlation of water level increment and accumulative rainfalls, we modeled the linear relations during 2007-2011 and got a series of critical rainfalls. Then the heavy precipitation event occurred in 2010 was chosen to testify the statistical rainfalls.Inputting the hourly precipitation into Flood Area(FA), the water level dynamics were grasped which correlated with the input precipitation powerfully. Compared with the statistical results,the thresholds calculated by the FA model showed smaller value at higher risk level and greater value at lower risk level, but the variability is almost less than 5%. The recurrence periods of critical rainfalls in 24 h are 167 a, 17 a and 2 a, respectively. With observation data, the relationships of precipitation-water level can be analyzed adequately, especially in short duration, while FA method has advantage in evaluating long duration correlation. The data from statistical method and FA simulation can be integrated and used as indices in flood disaster warning. Selection of proper indice is a key point of risk warning services.
引文
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[9]王柳艳,许有鹏,余铭婧.城镇化对太湖平原河网的影响——以太湖流域武澄锡虞区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):151-156.[WANG L Y,XU Y P,YU M J.Analysis of the urbanization effect on the Taihu plain river network—A case study of Wuchengxiyu region of Taihu Basin.Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2012,21(2):151-156.]
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[11]樊建勇,单九生,管珉,等.江西省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].气象,2012,38(9):1110-1114.[FAN J Y,SHAN J S,GUAN M,et al.Research on analysis and calculation method of critical precipitation of mountain torrents in Jiangxi Province.Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(9):1110-1114.]
[12]张亚杰,吴慧,吴胜安,等.南渡江流域暴雨洪涝致灾临界雨量的确定[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):731-740.[ZHANG Y J,WU H,WU S A,et al.Determination of area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm-flood hazard in the Nandu River Basin.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2014,25(6):731-740.]
[13]方崇惠,白宪台,欧光华.流域模型在平原水网湖区研究与应用[J].人民长江,1995,26(10):13-18.[FANG C H,BAI X T,OU G H.Development of compound watershed model and its application to river-network lake region.Yangtze River,1995,26(10):13-18.]
[14]文明章,林昕,游立军,等.山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(10):1325-1330.[WEN M Z,LIN X,YOU L J,et al.Risk rainfall assessment methods of flash floods disaster.Meteorological Monthly,2013,39(10):1325-1330.]
[15]卢燕宇,田红.基于HBV模型的淮河流域洪水致灾临界雨量研究[J].气象,2015,41(6):755-760.[LU Y Y,TIAN H.Mechanism-oriented approach for estimating critical rainfall of flood disaster:A case study based on HBV model.Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):755-760.]
[16]姬兴杰,李凤秀,朱业玉,等.河南省洛河上游暴雨山洪致灾临界面雨量的确定[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(6):43-50.[JI X J,LI F X,ZHU Y Y,et al.Determination of area rainfall threshold of flash flood in the upper reaches of Luohe River of Henan Province.Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(6):43-50.]
[17]卢燕宇,谢五三,田红.基于水文模型与统计方法的中小河流致洪临界雨量分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):38-47.[LU Y Y,XIE W S,TIAN H,et al.Analysis of critical flood causing rainfalls in medium and small rivers based on hydrological model and statistical method.Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(3):38-47.]
[18]叶正伟,许有鹏,潘光波.江淮平原水网区汛期雨量与洪涝水位关系——以江苏里下河腹部地区为例[J].地理研究,2011,30(6):1137-1146.[YE Z W,XU Y P,PAN G B.Relationship between flood rainfall and water level in a Jianghuai Plain River network region:A case study in the inner Lixiahe,Jiangsu.Geographical Research,2011,30(6):1137-1146.]
[19]尹义星,许有鹏.太湖流域腹部地区水位对降水变化及城镇化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):769-779.[YIN Y X,XU Y P.Response of water levels to precipitation changes and regional urbanization in the core regions of the Taihu Lake Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):769-779.]
[20]叶正伟,许有鹏,潘光波.江淮下游降水特征及其对水位的影响研究——以里下河腹部地区为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1922-1934.[YE Z W,XU Y P,PAN G B.Precipitation variations and its impact on water level in the lower reaches of Jianghuai Basin:A case study in the inner Lixiahe region,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(11):1922-1934.]
[21]GEMMER M.Decision Support for Flood Risk Management at the Yangtze River By GIS/RS Based Flood Damage Estimation[M].Giessen:Shaker,2004.
[22]苏布达,姜彤,郭业友,等.基于GIS栅格数据的洪水风险动态模拟模型及其应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(4):370-374.[SU B D,JIANG T,GUO Y Y,et al.GIS raster data-based dynamic flood risk simulation model and its application.Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2005,33(4):370-374.]
[23]Geomer.Flodarea-Arcview Extention for Calculating Flooded Areas(User Manual Version 10.3)[M].Heidelberg,2015.
[24]姜智怀,章毅之,蔡哲,等.基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟[J].气象,2014,40(8):1013-1018.[JIANG Z H,ZHANG Y Z,CAI Z,et al.Simulation of flood disasters based on embedded river raster.Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(8):1013-1018.]
[25]杨曦,武建军,闫峰,等.基于地表温度-植被指数特征空间的区域土壤干湿状况[J].生态学报, 2009, 29(3):1205-1216.[YANG X, WU J J, YAN F, et al. Assessment of regional soil moisture status based on characteristics of surface temperature/vegetation index space. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(3):1205-1216.]
[2]秦大河.影响我国的主要气象灾害及其发展态势[J].自然灾害学报,2007,16(12):46-48.[QIN D H.Major meteorological disasters impacting on China and their development situation.Journal of Natural Disasters,2007,16(12):46-48.]
[3]周成虎,万庆,黄诗峰,等.基于GIS的洪水灾害风险区划研究[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):15-24.[ZHOU C H,WAN Q,HUANG S F,et al.A GIS-base approach to flood risk zonation.Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(1):15-24.]
[4]王腊春,谢顺平,周寅康,等.太湖流域洪涝灾害淹没范围模拟[J].地理学报,2000,55(1):46-54.[WANG L C,XIE S P,ZHOU Y K,et al.Submerged simulation of flooding and water logging in Taihu watershed.Acta Geographica Sinica,2000,55(1):46-54.]
[5]秦年秀,姜彤.基于GIS的长江中下游地区洪灾风险分区及评价[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(5):1-7.[QIN N X,JIANG T.GIS based risk zoning and assessment of flood disaster in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin.Journal of Natural Disasters,2005,14(5):1-7.]
[6]王艳君,吕宏军,施雅风,等.城市化流域的土地利用变化对水文过程的影响——以秦淮河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(1):30-36.[WANG Y J,LüH J,SHI Y F,et al.Impacts of land use change on hydrological processes in an urbanized basin—A case study in the Qinhuai River Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(1):30-36.]
[7]郑璟,方伟华,史培军,等.快速城市化地区土地利用变化对流域水文过程影响的模拟研究——以深圳市布吉河流域为例[J].自然资源学报,2009,24(9):1560-1572.[ZHENG J,FANG W H,SHI P J,et al.Modeling the impacts of land use change on hydrological processes in fast urbanizing region—A case study of the Buji watershed in Shenzhen City,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2009,24(9):1560-1572.]
[8]石怡,许有鹏,蔡娟.城市化对秦淮河中下游洪涝灾害风险的影响分析[J].水土保持研究,2011,18(5):26-32.[SHI Y,XU Y P,CAI J.Analysis of the impact of urbanization on flood risk in the middle and lower reaches of Qinhuai River.Research of Soil and Water Conservation,2011,18(5):26-32.]
[9]王柳艳,许有鹏,余铭婧.城镇化对太湖平原河网的影响——以太湖流域武澄锡虞区为例[J].长江流域资源与环境,2012,21(2):151-156.[WANG L Y,XU Y P,YU M J.Analysis of the urbanization effect on the Taihu plain river network—A case study of Wuchengxiyu region of Taihu Basin.Resources and Environment in Yangtze Basin,2012,21(2):151-156.]
[10]陈桂亚,袁雅鸣.山洪灾害临界雨量分析计算方法研究[J].人民长江,2005,36(12):40-44.[CHEN G Y,YUAN Y M.Research on analysis and computation method of critical precipitation amount of torrential flood.Yangtze River,2005,36(12):40-44.]
[11]樊建勇,单九生,管珉,等.江西省小流域山洪灾害临界雨量计算分析[J].气象,2012,38(9):1110-1114.[FAN J Y,SHAN J S,GUAN M,et al.Research on analysis and calculation method of critical precipitation of mountain torrents in Jiangxi Province.Meteorological Monthly,2012,38(9):1110-1114.]
[12]张亚杰,吴慧,吴胜安,等.南渡江流域暴雨洪涝致灾临界雨量的确定[J].应用气象学报,2014,25(6):731-740.[ZHANG Y J,WU H,WU S A,et al.Determination of area precipitation thresholds of rainstorm-flood hazard in the Nandu River Basin.Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,2014,25(6):731-740.]
[13]方崇惠,白宪台,欧光华.流域模型在平原水网湖区研究与应用[J].人民长江,1995,26(10):13-18.[FANG C H,BAI X T,OU G H.Development of compound watershed model and its application to river-network lake region.Yangtze River,1995,26(10):13-18.]
[14]文明章,林昕,游立军,等.山洪灾害风险雨量评估方法研究[J].气象,2013,39(10):1325-1330.[WEN M Z,LIN X,YOU L J,et al.Risk rainfall assessment methods of flash floods disaster.Meteorological Monthly,2013,39(10):1325-1330.]
[15]卢燕宇,田红.基于HBV模型的淮河流域洪水致灾临界雨量研究[J].气象,2015,41(6):755-760.[LU Y Y,TIAN H.Mechanism-oriented approach for estimating critical rainfall of flood disaster:A case study based on HBV model.Meteorological Monthly,2015,41(6):755-760.]
[16]姬兴杰,李凤秀,朱业玉,等.河南省洛河上游暴雨山洪致灾临界面雨量的确定[J].气象与环境学报,2015,31(6):43-50.[JI X J,LI F X,ZHU Y Y,et al.Determination of area rainfall threshold of flash flood in the upper reaches of Luohe River of Henan Province.Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2015,31(6):43-50.]
[17]卢燕宇,谢五三,田红.基于水文模型与统计方法的中小河流致洪临界雨量分析[J].自然灾害学报,2016,25(3):38-47.[LU Y Y,XIE W S,TIAN H,et al.Analysis of critical flood causing rainfalls in medium and small rivers based on hydrological model and statistical method.Journal of Natural Disasters,2016,25(3):38-47.]
[18]叶正伟,许有鹏,潘光波.江淮平原水网区汛期雨量与洪涝水位关系——以江苏里下河腹部地区为例[J].地理研究,2011,30(6):1137-1146.[YE Z W,XU Y P,PAN G B.Relationship between flood rainfall and water level in a Jianghuai Plain River network region:A case study in the inner Lixiahe,Jiangsu.Geographical Research,2011,30(6):1137-1146.]
[19]尹义星,许有鹏.太湖流域腹部地区水位对降水变化及城镇化的响应[J].自然资源学报,2011,26(5):769-779.[YIN Y X,XU Y P.Response of water levels to precipitation changes and regional urbanization in the core regions of the Taihu Lake Basin.Journal of Natural Resources,2011,26(5):769-779.]
[20]叶正伟,许有鹏,潘光波.江淮下游降水特征及其对水位的影响研究——以里下河腹部地区为例[J].自然资源学报,2013,28(11):1922-1934.[YE Z W,XU Y P,PAN G B.Precipitation variations and its impact on water level in the lower reaches of Jianghuai Basin:A case study in the inner Lixiahe region,China.Journal of Natural Resources,2013,28(11):1922-1934.]
[21]GEMMER M.Decision Support for Flood Risk Management at the Yangtze River By GIS/RS Based Flood Damage Estimation[M].Giessen:Shaker,2004.
[22]苏布达,姜彤,郭业友,等.基于GIS栅格数据的洪水风险动态模拟模型及其应用[J].河海大学学报(自然科学版),2005,33(4):370-374.[SU B D,JIANG T,GUO Y Y,et al.GIS raster data-based dynamic flood risk simulation model and its application.Journal of Hohai University(Natural Sciences),2005,33(4):370-374.]
[23]Geomer.Flodarea-Arcview Extention for Calculating Flooded Areas(User Manual Version 10.3)[M].Heidelberg,2015.
[24]姜智怀,章毅之,蔡哲,等.基于嵌入河道栅格的山洪灾害淹没模拟[J].气象,2014,40(8):1013-1018.[JIANG Z H,ZHANG Y Z,CAI Z,et al.Simulation of flood disasters based on embedded river raster.Meteorological Monthly,2014,40(8):1013-1018.]
[25]杨曦,武建军,闫峰,等.基于地表温度-植被指数特征空间的区域土壤干湿状况[J].生态学报, 2009, 29(3):1205-1216.[YANG X, WU J J, YAN F, et al. Assessment of regional soil moisture status based on characteristics of surface temperature/vegetation index space. Acta Ecologica Sinica, 2009, 29(3):1205-1216.]